Vaccine roll out in Australia

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Chris Preston
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Chris Preston » Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:27 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:33 pm
The risk-benefit calculation for the AstraZeneca vaccine is rather different in Australia where there's a much lower risk from covid itself.
This announcement is more precautionary than anything else. It only applies to the Phase 1b group who are being currently vaccinated. Elderly people aged 70 and over, Health care workers not yet vaccinated, Household contacts of quarantine and border workers, Critical and high risk workers who are currently employed, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 55 years and over and Adults with an underlying medical condition or significant disability.

There is an expectation there will be more information available when the Phase 2a vaccinations begin.
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Martin_B » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:05 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:44 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:09 pm
you didn't not get 700,000 from the UK
I thought they were making their own AZ.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ec7155db5
Getting 3.8 million (well, ordered 3.8 million, no idea how many we are actually getting!), making another 50 million doses from a culture.
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:59 am

molto tricky

Chris Preston
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Chris Preston » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:51 am

More likely from people older people who are finding the recommendation confusing. If it is not OK for those under 50, why is it OK for them? Also some who are under 50 wanting to know when the Pfizer vaccine is going to be available to them and should they wait.

Also the Government announced today that they have another 20 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine ordered. That will allow most of the population to get the Pfizer vaccine with only 5 or 6 million needing the AstraZeneca vaccine. But it will push out the timetable to Q1 2022.

Australia has already sent 1 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine they had ordered to PNG. The Pfizer vaccine will be inappropriate for most of PNG due to lack of infrastructure.
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:10 am

Fishnut wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:24 pm
Aus is stopping AZ vaccine for under-50s

Has any other medicine ever had such a low bar for withdrawal?
According to COVID-19 deaths by age group and sex for Australia, there have been 5 (male) deaths in the 0-49 age group.

That's out of slightly less than 17 million people but for the purposes of the vaccine risk:benefit calculation let's limit it to 10.6 million in the 20-49 age range.

So that's half a (male) death per million; the AstraZeneca vaccine is causing a few deaths per million. If Australia decided to give everyone the AstraZeneca is would cause more deaths than covid has so far, in the <50 age group, so assuming it doesn't all go wrong, it would cause more deaths than it's likely to prevent.

It's worse if you're a woman under the age of 50 in Australia because in that case (a) you seem to have ~zero chance of dying from covid and (b) the chance of developing a clotting problem from the vaccine seems to be higher.
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:53 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:05 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:44 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:09 pm
you didn't not get 700,000 from the UK
I thought they were making their own AZ.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 0ec7155db5
Getting 3.8 million (well, ordered 3.8 million, no idea how many we are actually getting!), making another 50 million doses from a culture.
Are those 50 million being made, Martin? I see articles about the plan, but is actual production happening, and at what rate?

Chris Preston
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Chris Preston » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:07 pm

They are being manufactured in Melbourne. 1.3 million doses have been delivered. Current manufacturing rate is roughly half a million doses per week.
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:09 pm

Chris Preston wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:07 pm
They are being manufactured in Melbourne. 1.3 million doses have been delivered. Current manufacturing rate is roughly half a million doses per week.
Thank you Chris.

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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by shpalman » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:53 am

Australia is on target with its rollout of adverse blood clotting:
“There have been about 700,000 doses of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine administered in Australia to date, so while numbers are small, two cases … equates to a frequency of one in 350,000,” the TGA said.

“The UK regulator … has concluded from its review of cases reported in the UK that the overall risk of these rare blood clots was approximately one in 250,000 who receive the vaccine.”
molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Herainestold » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:09 pm

Australia's borders to remain closed, possibly even after country is vaccinated.
Mr Hunt suggested at a news conference in Canberra on Tuesday the international border closures could last much longer and stay in place even if the entire population had been vaccinated against the coronavirus.

“Vaccination alone is no guarantee that you can open up,” Mr Hunt said.

“If the whole country were vaccinated, you couldn’t just open the borders.

“We still have to look at a series of different factors: transmission, longevity [of vaccine protection] and the global impact - and those are factors which the world is learning about,” he said.
Unfortunate for stranded Australians, and those like my friends who have an Australian grandson they have never seen in person. Ultimately I think it is a wise precaution, as it appears vaccines do not inhibit transmission , although they do mitigate the death rate. Australia should stay the course, keep borders shut and roll out vaccines in an orderly fashion.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 57ixi.html

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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Chris Preston » Sat May 15, 2021 5:41 am

Did my bit today to assist South Australia's abysmally low vaccination rate. COVID-19 vaccines given is still less than 5 per 100 people. The clinic has permission to open every second Saturday for 3 hours allowing 36 people to be vaccinated in that time.

The Government has just purchased 25 million Moderna doses to be delivered in Q4 2021. This will include 10 million doses of the current version and 15 million booster doses to address variants.

Getting the population fully vaccinated by October is a pipedream. More likely to be July 2022.
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Herainestold » Sat May 15, 2021 12:45 pm

Chris Preston wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 5:41 am
Did my bit today to assist South Australia's abysmally low vaccination rate. COVID-19 vaccines given is still less than 5 per 100 people. The clinic has permission to open every second Saturday for 3 hours allowing 36 people to be vaccinated in that time.

The Government has just purchased 25 million Moderna doses to be delivered in Q4 2021. This will include 10 million doses of the current version and 15 million booster doses to address variants.

Getting the population fully vaccinated by October is a pipedream. More likely to be July 2022.
Why so slow? Is it problems with Astra Zeneca production/acceptance? Or is it more just the difficulties of the vaccine market? Any thought towards acquiring sputnik or Chinese vaccines?

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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Chris Preston » Mon May 17, 2021 5:11 am

Slowness is mainly around decisions (all those under 50 won't be getting the AstraZeneca vaccine), availability of specific vaccines (plenty of AstraZeneca vaccine, but limited supplies of Pfizer vaccines), and how the roll out has been handled (focus on high needs groups first and then general population) as well as state decisions on how to roll out (in South Australia it has been largely hospitals and larger medical clinics to date, rather than the creation of purpose-built vaccination centres). Also there has been a perceived lack of need for haste as borders are closed and quarantine is in place.

Australia almost certainly won't be approving Sputnik or Sinopharm. Sputnik because it is replication competent and Sinopharm because it is not sufficiently effective.
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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Herainestold » Mon May 17, 2021 1:20 pm

Chris Preston wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 5:11 am
Slowness is mainly around decisions (all those under 50 won't be getting the AstraZeneca vaccine), availability of specific vaccines (plenty of AstraZeneca vaccine, but limited supplies of Pfizer vaccines), and how the roll out has been handled (focus on high needs groups first and then general population) as well as state decisions on how to roll out (in South Australia it has been largely hospitals and larger medical clinics to date, rather than the creation of purpose-built vaccination centres). Also there has been a perceived lack of need for haste as borders are closed and quarantine is in place.

Australia almost certainly won't be approving Sputnik or Sinopharm. Sputnik because it is replication competent and Sinopharm because it is not sufficiently effective.
Thanks Chris. I was trying to figure out what was going on from the media and not getting the smaller details. There are other Chinese vaccines besides
Sinopharm. There is Can Sino and Sinovax, which are being used effectively in some countries.
It is a shame that the Australian vax didn't work out.

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Re: Vaccine roll out in Australia

Post by Chris Preston » Mon May 17, 2021 11:54 pm

Sinovac is pretty similar to Sinopharm and has similar efficacy. The CanSino vaccine is a one-shot option like the J&J vaccine and of similar efficacy to that. I doubt any of these would be approved in Australia for efficacy reasons. The CMO has taken a strategy of using the most effective vaccines and getting as many people vaccinated as possible, so that significant transmission is not going to be possible. The current signals are that Australia will ultimately move to mRNA vaccines entirely. They are even going to build the infrastructure to manufacture them locally. There have been enough doses of mRNA vaccines now purchased to vaccinate everyone in the country with 4 doses.
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