Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

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Tessa K
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Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by Tessa K » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:36 pm

I just got an appointment for the first vaccine tomorrow. I got a text with a link. I wasn't expecting to get it for a couple of months as I'm not over 70 but maybe my thyroid thing bumps me up the list?

There was a choice of two locations, one very near that had no appointments at the moment and one about half an hour walk away that had a few tomorrow.

Anyone else had it yet?

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by Trinucleus » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:40 pm

Yes, last Saturday. We're 65 and 66 with no major health issues, so was much earlier than we thought. Yorkshire seems to have hit the ground ru ning though. I had mild cold symptoms next day, but my wife was fine

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by nezumi » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:49 pm

2 days ago, I'll let you know when the side effects have gone.

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by monkey » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:01 pm

1st and 2nd dose moderna for me: got it early because they were doing the people who see patients at work and realised that they'd have some spare doses, so gave those out to others in the department. If I waited, I'd be getting the first one this month because I'm in education and even support staff in schools and universities are now eligible for it here.

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by FredM » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:16 pm

My wife & I had first jab (Oxford/AZ) on 30/1 at local health centre (GP who administered the vax was a near neighbour). Mild tenderness at injection site was my only side effect, however my wife spent two mornings in bed with bad headaches.

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by Lew Dolby » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:58 pm

Week ago last Sat - no side effects. 70, diabetic, awaiting a pacemeker. Via the NHS system - letter and jab the day after at Saints Rugby ground.

Wife today. 69, thyroid probs and asthmatic. Again jab day after call. GP system so local orthopaedic hosp.
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by nezumi » Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:23 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:58 pm
Week ago last Sat - no side effects. 70, diabetic, awaiting a pacemeker. Via the NHS system - letter and jab the day after at Saints Rugby ground.

Wife today. 69, thyroid probs and asthmatic. Again jab day after call. GP system so local orthopaedic hosp.
Wonder if this is related to your area?

Mine was a letter with a URL and a passcode. I went online, booked the nearest appointment (letter Thursday, appointment Monday) at the most convenient location. It looked a lot like the system you use online to book blood donation which is very good.

I'm very impressed that my area has already got up to 36 yo asthmatics and 45 yo single-kidney-ites. Very quick indeed. I expect my Dad, 68, no health issues, will have had his by the end of February at this rate.

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by lpm » Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:47 pm

Definitely should be earlier than late Feb. GPs should be making appointments for 65 to 70 right now, for next week.

If they're still doing >70 next week then it's unacceptable performance. The Prime Minister will be very cross with them because he loathes incompetence.

My GP has finished >70 except for refusers, has done all learning difficulties >18 and their carers, and all homeless they could reach. They have done vaccinations or have appointments booked for all 65-70, and are moving on to booking 60-65 for late Feb.

I believe, but I don't know, that the NHS distributors have relied on GPs telling them how many are in each cohort. Competent GPs have been generous in apportioning people to vulnerable and healthcare categories, so got more doses supplied.
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:07 pm

My mum (67, healthy) was Pfizered yesterday. NHS arranged it by text. The local centre (in a community centre) was well organised and efficient, and no side effects at all so far, she says.

She works in an old folks home and 3 residents there haven't been jabbed yet, because they don't use text messages and whatever alternative system the GP is using is way slower.
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by Lew Dolby » Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:40 pm

nezumi wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:23 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:58 pm
Week ago last Sat - no side effects. 70, diabetic, awaiting a pacemeker. Via the NHS system - letter and jab the day after at Saints Rugby ground.

Wife today. 69, thyroid probs and asthmatic. Again jab day after call. GP system so local orthopaedic hosp.
Wonder if this is related to your area?

Mine was a letter with a URL and a passcode. I went online, booked the nearest appointment (letter Thursday, appointment Monday) at the most convenient location. It looked a lot like the system you use online to book blood donation which is very good.

I'm very impressed that my area has already got up to 36 yo asthmatics and 45 yo single-kidney-ites. Very quick indeed. I expect my Dad, 68, no health issues, will have had his by the end of February at this rate.
Yes - much like that - 'cept, nearest centre was 30 miles away and had no convenient appointments. Next nearest were Crewe, Stoke, Stafford (al nearer than St Helens) but you can't get there from here (all zig-zagging about slow country roads).

St Helens RFC has the advantage of (tho 50-ish miles away), fast roads all the way (mostly dual-c) and I know exactly were the ground is so no chance of hours playing getting lost in a strange town
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by headshot » Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:42 pm

My 30-something cousin with one kidney and a poorly functioning remaining one was done last week...somewhere near Lichfield.

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by nezumi » Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:27 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:42 pm
My 30-something cousin with one kidney and a poorly functioning remaining one was done last week...somewhere near Lichfield.
That's brilliant, so pleased for them. It's good to have a bit of this nightmare taken off your mind. Not perfect but it's something.

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by science_fox » Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:33 am

OtherHalf has (vulnerable). AZ. About 3 days of mild side effects, sore arm etc. painkillers helped a lot.

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Tessa K
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by Tessa K » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:36 am

I'm surprised I got my appointment so soon as London was lagging behind the rest of the country in its vaccination rate for a while. There was also some concern about the postal service in parts of London having huge backlogs and people not getting their appointments letters, which did worry me but mine came by text with a link. My GP practice is a big one so maybe they have more efficient systems than some smaller ones??

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by bagpuss » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:48 am

As of Tuesday, our GP practice was still waiting on notification as to when they're getting vaccine supplies that they're allowed to use for the 65-70 age group. I'm not sure where the hold up is happening (definitely not at GP level - they've been great and were prepped and ready to go well before they got any vaccines) but my area definitely seems to have been near the bottom of the list for vaccine supplies for some reason, even though we had high levels of the Kent variant so were in lockdown back before Christmas.

So as I'm in the last group for phase 2 (51 next month, no underlying conditions), I'm really not expecting to get mine before the very end of May at best.

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by lpm » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:01 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:48 am
So as I'm in the last group for phase 2 (51 next month, no underlying conditions), I'm really not expecting to get mine before the very end of May at best.
You're going to have to explain the maths behind your expectation.

There are 17m people in the UK in Cohorts 5-9 and you will be the last of them.

Cohorts 5-9 begin next week.

We are currently doing 3.0m per week.
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by bagpuss » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:36 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:01 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:48 am
So as I'm in the last group for phase 2 (51 next month, no underlying conditions), I'm really not expecting to get mine before the very end of May at best.
You're going to have to explain the maths behind your expectation.

There are 17m people in the UK in Cohorts 5-9 and you will be the last of them.

Cohorts 5-9 begin next week.

We are currently doing 3.0m per week.
No maths, just natural pessimism. In theory, if everywhere was going at the same rate, I ought to be getting mine somewhere in late April but as my area seems to be running well behind most other areas, I'm confidently expecting that places like Yorkshire will be well into the healthy 40 somethings at least, quite possibly the 30 somethings before I get mine, which means there will be more than 17m more people getting their jabs before I get mine. Maybe "at best" was unduly pessimistic, but I'm definitely not expecting to get it before the 2nd half of May, unless something dramatic happens with vaccine supplies to my area.

EDIT: To be clear, I'm fine with that. I'd really like to understand why we're so far behind, but as, even when the vaccines were approved, I was not expecting to get mine till the summer at the earliest, I'd be very delighted with 2nd half of May.

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lpm
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by lpm » Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:23 pm

The govt is being strict in getting all groups 1-4 done for the entire country, before moving on to significant numbers of groups 5 and 6.

There's absolutely no way they'll allow that sort of region discrepancy to persist for more than a few days. They are continually balancing up as they go - the bottleneck is the supply out of factories, not the production line of needles into arms. There'll be a bit of blurring round the edges, but there is 0.0000000% chance that some parts of the country will be doing <50s while there are still significant numbers of >50s still waiting eagerly for a vaccine. The Tories are keen on winning the next election.

And don't forget that the % of refusers and can't-be-bothereds will rise as we move down the cohorts, maybe only 70% of 50-60 year olds will come forward promptly. Which could shove you up the list by millions of people.

On the other hand, Pfizer supply is about to slow down for two weeks, so the current 3 million per week rate will drop temporarily.

But in very broad terms, the 12 week timeframe will divide into:

- 15 million Cohorts 1-4 = done in the six weeks 4 Jan to 15 Feb (plus some done in Dec)
- 17 million Cohorts 5-9 + 2 million second dose Cohorts 1-4 = done in the six weeks 15 Feb to 29 March (assuming supply lets us average 3m a week)

Whether you get done at the very end of March or the first half of April will depend on supply, % refusers and local variations, but no way should it push into May. You should be confident in having your 2 week jabiversary by 1 May.
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by lpm » Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:40 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:36 pm
my area seems to be running well behind most other areas... I'd really like to understand why we're so far behind
The mostly likely explanation for local variations is refusers/can't-be-bothereds/don't-responds.

(1) There's an alarming difference between % for white and minorities. In over 80s at the point when whites hit 85% first doses, blacks were only at 50%. For 70-79, whites reached 60% when blacks were at 45%.

(2) Deprived areas lag behind. For over 80s, least deprived areas hit 85% when most deprived were at only 75%.

So any deprived area with high number of minorities should be expected to lag behind, even if the local NHS teams are doing a great job.

If your area is white and rich, however, then the only explanation I can think of for running behind is local incompetence...
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by shpalman » Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:45 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:01 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:48 am
So as I'm in the last group for phase 2 (51 next month, no underlying conditions), I'm really not expecting to get mine before the very end of May at best.
You're going to have to explain the maths behind your expectation.

There are 17m people in the UK in Cohorts 5-9 and you will be the last of them.

Cohorts 5-9 begin next week.

We are currently doing 3.0m per week.
Currently at ~13m first doses given but what's going to have to start in April is the second doses of all these people.
molto tricky

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by lpm » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:23 pm

Obviously.

And equally obviously it's easy to see how many people each week reach their 12 week point. Which is about 2 million by 31 March, which is why I included 2 million second doses in my broad estimates.

Given the initial growth in Jan from 1m a week to 2m to 2.5m, if the supply allows 3 million a week in April there's still a lot of first dosing that can get done for any stragglers in groups 5-9.

Judging by the replies on this thread, there's a lot of forum members or their relatives in group 5 (65-70) and group 6 (at risk) who are getting first doses this week, or getting appointments for next week. Cohorts 1-4 are clearly pretty maxed out, with only stragglers and hard-to-reach and refusers still being chased, so most places have had to move on to 5-6.
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by headshot » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:39 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:45 pm
Currently at ~13m first doses given but what's going to have to start in April is the second doses of all these people.
Spoke with NHS Emergency Planning friend about that. There is a plan in place to keep growing the number of daily jabs to a point where the second jab cohort won't be taking away capacity for the first jab cohort.

I have a number of non-medical friends who have been doing training via St John's Ambulance with a view to becoming fully-fledged vaccinators in the next few weeks.

Of course, supply chain issues are a different beast...

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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by lpm » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:40 pm

Take up stats (England only) for Cohorts 1-4 as at 7 Feb:

>80 = 91%
75-79 = 96%
70-74 = 74%
Care home residents = 85%
Care home residents excl those who'd had Covid in last 28 days = 93%

Healthcare workers = unknown
Total <70 = 4.0 million (unknown split between healthcare workers and clinically extremely vulnerable)
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by lpm » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:46 pm

Reminder: the official govt targets are always "to offer" the vaccine, rather than achieve 100%. Which is fair enough really.

It's clear all 1-4 have now been offered the vaccine. Plus enough first doses will have been done by 15 Feb that would have covered all 1-4 if 100% had taken the offer. We should be at about 16 million doses by 15 Feb, compared to the approx 15 million people in 1-4.
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Re: Has anyone had the vaccine yet?

Post by bagpuss » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:23 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:40 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:36 pm
my area seems to be running well behind most other areas... I'd really like to understand why we're so far behind
The mostly likely explanation for local variations is refusers/can't-be-bothereds/don't-responds.

(1) There's an alarming difference between % for white and minorities. In over 80s at the point when whites hit 85% first doses, blacks were only at 50%. For 70-79, whites reached 60% when blacks were at 45%.

(2) Deprived areas lag behind. For over 80s, least deprived areas hit 85% when most deprived were at only 75%.

So any deprived area with high number of minorities should be expected to lag behind, even if the local NHS teams are doing a great job.

If your area is white and rich, however, then the only explanation I can think of for running behind is local incompetence...
Yep, we're depressingly white and rich and actually, I think that may possibly be the reason - I think your logic is back to front. In an area where 85-90% are taking up the offer, it's going to take longer to get through every n people on the list than if only 75% are taking it up. If you've planned for enough vaccines for 10,000 people in group 1 and only 7,500 take them up, then you're going to have 2,500 left over for group 2 and will get to them much quicker than an area that's got to get through 8,500 to 9,000 of their 10k people.

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