Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics

Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
3%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
15
43%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
14%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
6
17%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
8
23%
 
Total votes: 35

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed May 05, 2021 2:25 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 2:12 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 1:29 pm
CFR is much higher for younger peoples with variants. We actually don't kno what it is for the Indian variant in the UK yet, as the cases have just started to climb and we havent seen the full effect on hospitalizations and mortality. It would be foolish to rapidly unlock now. We need to get everybody vaccinated and start to prepare variant booster doses now.
Indeed. There's currently a large pool of unvaccinated people in their 20s, 30s and 40s out and about in cities - which new variants could spread through.

With the focus on finishing 2nd doses for risk groups and over 50s - the rate of new 1st doses being given has been pretty low for the past month.

At this rate we're going to have a big chunk of the <50 population either with just a 1st dose, or still not had a first dose, well into June.
We're not going to lockdown for hypotheticals. That's just absurd.

Imagine yourself in 2019 - if anyone said we were shutting down a chunk of the economy to prevent some hypothetical illness that could spread through unvaccinated people, and if it did the result would be a very low death rate, you'd have rejected it out of hand.

All adults are on track to be first dosed by 30 June (a month ahead of the official target of 31 July). There's only a very narrow window left for the virus to regain a bridgehead and that window is shrinking by the day.

We need to concentrate on other public health issues now - the past year has caused problems that go much further than the residual Covid risk.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Wed May 05, 2021 5:26 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 2:25 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 2:12 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 1:29 pm
CFR is much higher for younger peoples with variants. We actually don't kno what it is for the Indian variant in the UK yet, as the cases have just started to climb and we havent seen the full effect on hospitalizations and mortality. It would be foolish to rapidly unlock now. We need to get everybody vaccinated and start to prepare variant booster doses now.
Indeed. There's currently a large pool of unvaccinated people in their 20s, 30s and 40s out and about in cities - which new variants could spread through.

With the focus on finishing 2nd doses for risk groups and over 50s - the rate of new 1st doses being given has been pretty low for the past month.

At this rate we're going to have a big chunk of the <50 population either with just a 1st dose, or still not had a first dose, well into June.
We're not going to lockdown for hypotheticals. That's just absurd.

...

All adults are on track to be first dosed by 30 June (a month ahead of the official target of 31 July). There's only a very narrow window left for the virus to regain a bridgehead and that window is shrinking by the day.

I didn't say we should "go into lockdown"!

I was pointing this issue out as a concern - when it comes to deciding, in June, whether to remove the remaining very limited restrictions that we still have in place.

Take my university for example - if we suddenly throw hundreds of unvaccinated students together at large events in the next month we could contribute to building the bridgehead you are referring to.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Wed May 05, 2021 9:24 pm

It’s funny, for the last couple of weeks I thought Herainestold was an LPM sock puppet. Maybe not. ;)

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed May 05, 2021 9:35 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:24 pm
It’s funny, for the last couple of weeks I thought Herainestold was an LPM sock puppet. Maybe not. ;)
There's no smoke without fire.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed May 05, 2021 9:35 pm

Image
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed May 05, 2021 9:54 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:35 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:24 pm
It’s funny, for the last couple of weeks I thought Herainestold was an LPM sock puppet. Maybe not. ;)
There's no smoke without fire.
Nope. I always give my sock puppets a few brain cells to work with.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed May 05, 2021 9:56 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:54 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:35 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:24 pm
It’s funny, for the last couple of weeks I thought Herainestold was an LPM sock puppet. Maybe not. ;)
There's no smoke without fire.
Nope. I always give my sock puppets a few brain cells to work with.
I'm flattered.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed May 05, 2021 10:01 pm

I wish I knew why "lpm is Herainestold" is my favourite conspiracy theory. I just don't know what it is - something in the prose style?

If it turns out you're both Jewish I'm going to be so embarrassed.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed May 05, 2021 11:10 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 10:01 pm
I wish I knew why "lpm is Herainestold" is my favourite conspiracy theory. I just don't know what it is - something in the prose style?

If it turns out you're both Jewish I'm going to be so embarrassed.
I'm not Jewish. NTTAWWT

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 06, 2021 3:21 am

I spent some time looking and couldn't find any hard evidence of how virulent the indian variant B.1.617. I couldn't find any numbers just vague statements, so I must walk back my claim that it is more deadly.It may yet prove to be, and bears watching, but at this point, no.

I still think we should delay the reopening until more younger people are vaccinated.

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri May 28, 2021 6:57 am

Still looks 50/50.

They should not be going to Stage 4 on 21 June but it will probably be the "Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn" option.

There's a strong case for a firebreak lockdown of two weeks in about five localities. Close schools as well as everything else. The UK testing program is now top class, showing us exactly where the B.1.617 problem is.

That's the way to ensure Stage 4. Johnson needs to think about how it'll look to have nightclubbing starting in Newcastle while hospitals fill with younger people in Blackburn.

Ultimately the mistake was at the beginning: needed a couple more halvings. 617 arrived when the background level was at 2,000 per day instead of 500. We had some time to watch and wait when 617 started, but we've used that up now.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Tessa K
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Fri May 28, 2021 11:00 am

lpm wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 6:57 am
Still looks 50/50.

They should not be going to Stage 4 on 21 June but it will probably be the "Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn" option.

There's a strong case for a firebreak lockdown of two weeks in about five localities. Close schools as well as everything else. The UK testing program is now top class, showing us exactly where the B.1.617 problem is.

That's the way to ensure Stage 4. Johnson needs to think about how it'll look to have nightclubbing starting in Newcastle while hospitals fill with younger people in Blackburn.

Ultimately the mistake was at the beginning: needed a couple more halvings. 617 arrived when the background level was at 2,000 per day instead of 500. We had some time to watch and wait when 617 started, but we've used that up now.
A lot of people round my way have gone to Stage 4 already with no social distancing, meeting up indoors in large groups, and not wearing masks. And only 50% of Londoners have been vaccinated. So whether Boris moves us officially to stage 4 or not, people are going to do what they want.

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri May 28, 2021 12:51 pm

There are always rule breakers. Rationing had its black-marketeers, supermarkets have their shoplifters.

So it's already built into the price. Lockdown measures have always included 20% of deliberate law breakers and 20% of casual law breakers. It's absolutely no surprise that a minority are already on Stage 4. Another minority is still on Stage 2.

Have faith in people. The majority have nearly always obeyed the rules. In March 2020 the voluntary lockdown worked before the official lockdown. Public support for lockdown is still very high. Tell people to stop meeting indoors and they'll stop meeting indoors. Lockdown have proved that people around the world are far better citizens than cynical leaders believe.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Tessa K
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Fri May 28, 2021 1:26 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 12:51 pm
There are always rule breakers. Rationing had its black-marketeers, supermarkets have their shoplifters.

So it's already built into the price. Lockdown measures have always included 20% of deliberate law breakers and 20% of casual law breakers. It's absolutely no surprise that a minority are already on Stage 4. Another minority is still on Stage 2.

Have faith in people. The majority have nearly always obeyed the rules. In March 2020 the voluntary lockdown worked before the official lockdown. Public support for lockdown is still very high. Tell people to stop meeting indoors and they'll stop meeting indoors. Lockdown have proved that people around the world are far better citizens than cynical leaders believe.
I agree that the majority are usually compliant but it's the non-compliant ones who are spreading Covid to the vulnerable who can't have vaccines and risking a vaccine-resistant mutation. Also, from what I've heard there's a kind of compliancy fatigue that sets in so that even people who were followed the guidelines in earlier lockdowns are now taking risks, either because they've been vaccinated or because they think the worst is over. This may be less of a problem in some parts of the country where 73% overall have been vaccinated but, as I said before, in London it's only 50% - partly because there's a larger younger population who haven't been invited yet and partly because vaccine hesitancy or resistance is higher here.

So I have some faith in people but I'm still not optimistic.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat May 29, 2021 1:50 am

Well we are all going to be back under lockdown once the Modi variant Is realized to be in exponential spread. Its low numbers now, but hey, thats how these things work. By the time the curve is vertical its too late.

If you have one vax, you are kindling for the fire, so make sure you get your second dose, keep masking, keep distancing. Its not over till its over, even if it feels otherwise.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:32 pm


British health minister Matt Hancock said on Sunday it was too early to say whether the government would stick to its plan to fully lift COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in England on June 21.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/too-so ... 021-06-06/

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:27 pm

To be fair, when they published the roadmap they did say they would wait until the 4th week of each stage before deciding to proceed with the next one...so, why do the press keep asking them if a day is achievable after only two or three weeks?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:35 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:27 pm
To be fair, when they published the roadmap they did say they would wait until the 4th week of each stage before deciding to proceed with the next one...so, why do the press keep asking them if a day is achievable after only two or three weeks?
Well it's like when a sector here says they just want to be given the date on which they'll be able to open. (And then they get a date, and they say, "no, not that one")

As of tomorrow quite a lot more of Italy's regions will be "white" zones, and probably a week after that all of Italy apart from Val d'Aosta will be a white zone. The rolling average case rate is still going down and a few days ago actually crossed over with the UK's, which is going up.

In practice I'm not sure how I'd compare the current levels of UK and Italy lock- (or unlock-) down.
molto tricky

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