Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
I think the twitter commentators who were mostly reliable and interesting have got terrible in the past month.
There's a clique who went all in on doom, Herainestold style, and will never abandon that. There's another group who got acclimatised to 2020 unvaxxed Covid and simply couldn't switch to the behaviour of vaxxed Covid. And another load who start with Johnson-is-sh.t and try to distort reality to fit (in particular proclaiming the vaccination program to be a disaster long after it was shown to be successful).
IMO, the correct perspective is that the UK govt decided to race down the motorway on a foggy night and had a pretty reasonable chance of getting away with it. So far they obviously have. You can still say the govt made a reckless choice without needing to seek out scraps of bad news from the pile of data.
There's a clique who went all in on doom, Herainestold style, and will never abandon that. There's another group who got acclimatised to 2020 unvaxxed Covid and simply couldn't switch to the behaviour of vaxxed Covid. And another load who start with Johnson-is-sh.t and try to distort reality to fit (in particular proclaiming the vaccination program to be a disaster long after it was shown to be successful).
IMO, the correct perspective is that the UK govt decided to race down the motorway on a foggy night and had a pretty reasonable chance of getting away with it. So far they obviously have. You can still say the govt made a reckless choice without needing to seek out scraps of bad news from the pile of data.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
I agree. Johnson has been lucky, again. He’s got away with being reckless, again.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:50 pmI think the twitter commentators who were mostly reliable and interesting have got terrible in the past month.
There's a clique who went all in on doom, Herainestold style, and will never abandon that. There's another group who got acclimatised to 2020 unvaxxed Covid and simply couldn't switch to the behaviour of vaxxed Covid. And another load who start with Johnson-is-sh.t and try to distort reality to fit (in particular proclaiming the vaccination program to be a disaster long after it was shown to be successful).
IMO, the correct perspective is that the UK govt decided to race down the motorway on a foggy night and had a pretty reasonable chance of getting away with it. So far they obviously have. You can still say the govt made a reckless choice without needing to seek out scraps of bad news from the pile of data.
Some Twitter accounts seemed to be really invested in Johnson having f.cked up.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
I originally thought the pandemic would be over by September 2020. Then I thought the second wave would be milder than the first.I thought vaccines would bring us back to normal in 3-4 months. Wrong every time. Mother nature always has more tricks up her sleeve.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:50 pmI think the twitter commentators who were mostly reliable and interesting have got terrible in the past month.
There's a clique who went all in on doom, Herainestold style, and will never abandon that. There's another group who got acclimatised to 2020 unvaxxed Covid and simply couldn't switch to the behaviour of vaxxed Covid. And another load who start with Johnson-is-sh.t and try to distort reality to fit (in particular proclaiming the vaccination program to be a disaster long after it was shown to be successful).
IMO, the correct perspective is that the UK govt decided to race down the motorway on a foggy night and had a pretty reasonable chance of getting away with it. So far they obviously have. You can still say the govt made a reckless choice without needing to seek out scraps of bad news from the pile of data.
Johnson has been incompetent but lucky in one thing, the vaccine development and roll out. He has met his match in Delta. We are having a brief respite while Mother Nature rolls up her sleeves for the autumn wave. Recent data from America shows totally vaccinated people have as much viral load as unvaxed and can easily infect others, and data from Singapore shows Delta is deadlier than earlier strains. When the autumn wave gets going on twenty million unvaxed Britons, adults and children, there will be carnage in the streets. Johnson is willing to let the bodies pile up, he has been quoted on that.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
We are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:45 amJohnson has been incompetent but lucky in one thing, the vaccine development and roll out. He has met his match in Delta. We are having a brief respite while Mother Nature rolls up her sleeves for the autumn wave. Recent data from America shows totally vaccinated people have as much viral load as unvaxed and can easily infect others, and data from Singapore shows Delta is deadlier than earlier strains. When the autumn wave gets going on twenty million unvaxed Britons, adults and children, there will be carnage in the streets. Johnson is willing to let the bodies pile up, he has been quoted on that.
Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Behaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:34 amWe are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:45 amJohnson has been incompetent but lucky in one thing, the vaccine development and roll out. He has met his match in Delta. We are having a brief respite while Mother Nature rolls up her sleeves for the autumn wave. Recent data from America shows totally vaccinated people have as much viral load as unvaxed and can easily infect others, and data from Singapore shows Delta is deadlier than earlier strains. When the autumn wave gets going on twenty million unvaxed Britons, adults and children, there will be carnage in the streets. Johnson is willing to let the bodies pile up, he has been quoted on that.
Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Yes - but on the other hand in the autumn we'll have an even higher proportion of the population vaccinated (which reduces mortality) or with prior exposure to Delta.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:50 amBehaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.
Even with current vaccination levels - and fairly uncontrolled spread - the IFR in this June/July wave is a lot lower than the January Alpha wave.
I'm not suggesting a new variant couldn't cause the sort of "carnage in the streets" that Herainestold is suggesting in the autumn. Nor that Delta itself couldn't cause a lot of cases (in the vaccinated or with reinfections).
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
I suspect any carnage will be limited to ICU wards.
“Carnage on the streets” is ridiculously overwrought hyperbole of the most f.ck-headed order.
“Carnage on the streets” is ridiculously overwrought hyperbole of the most f.ck-headed order.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
And linguistically inaccurate.
I'm not hopeful about my local area and its hospitals' ability to cope this autumn/winter. Camden Borough (population c. 264,100) has one of the slowest rates of Covid vaccination in the country: 149,000 first dose (59.4%), 111,600 second dose (44.5%). (Those stats may not add up exactly as they came from two different govt sites). It's also a very popular destination for tourists and other Londoners with lots of indoor venues of all sizes so at the weekends in particular the population is considerably more.
http://camdennewjournal.com/article/cam ... in-country“For years Camden has had the lowest take-up of childhood and other routine vaccinations so this shouldn’t have wrong-footed our council’s leadership.”
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
How is it inaccurate?Tessa K wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 2:32 pm
And linguistically inaccurate.
I'm not hopeful about my local area and its hospitals' ability to cope this autumn/winter. Camden Borough (population c. 264,100) has one of the slowest rates of Covid vaccination in the country: 149,000 first dose (59.4%), 111,600 second dose (44.5%). (Those stats may not add up exactly as they came from two different govt sites). It's also a very popular destination for tourists and other Londoners with lots of indoor venues of all sizes so at the weekends in particular the population is considerably more.
http://camdennewjournal.com/article/cam ... in-country“For years Camden has had the lowest take-up of childhood and other routine vaccinations so this shouldn’t have wrong-footed our council’s leadership.”
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
The meaning of carnage is the killing of people.
Do you think there will be killings in the streets?
Do you think there will be killings in the streets?
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
From the Latin for flesh and the old French/Italian meaning slaughter. Also as in Carnival (the last day of eating meat before Lent) and carnivore, flesh eater.***
But then as Sophie Ellis Bexter sang - it's murder on the dance floor ...
*** Humanities grad
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
People were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
And in the cheese aisle of Sainsbury's too apparently.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:06 pmPeople were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.
Or maybe it's ok to use a word in a way which isn't strictly literal.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
People do it literally all the time.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:23 pmAnd in the cheese aisle of Sainsbury's too apparently.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:06 pmPeople were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.
Or maybe it's ok to use a word in a way which isn't strictly literal.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Except when it's inaccurate and histrionic.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:23 pmAnd in the cheese aisle of Sainsbury's too apparently.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:06 pmPeople were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.
Or maybe it's ok to use a word in a way which isn't strictly literal.
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Cut him some slack. Inaccurate and histrionic is his shtick.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Autumn doesn't look good but I guess we see where we are with cases at the start of September. We could run into trouble if the drop in cases stalls this week and schools go back at 25,000 a day. But I think we can afford to be complacent if starting below 10,000.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:50 amBehaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:34 amWe are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.
Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Autumn looks quite scary. Wait until October. An early lockdown might save Christmas, but I fear it won't happen.lpm wrote: ↑Mon Aug 02, 2021 8:00 amAutumn doesn't look good but I guess we see where we are with cases at the start of September. We could run into trouble if the drop in cases stalls this week and schools go back at 25,000 a day. But I think we can afford to be complacent if starting below 10,000.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:50 amBehaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:34 amWe are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.
Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???
Masking forever
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Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Actually I think cases will start rising again this week. Keep your mask on. Both of them.
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Putin is a monster.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Herainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Thank you. That Dr. Jha is very smooth and persuasive. I don't trust him.headshot wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:27 amHerainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28
I think he plays down the risk to children. A consequence of our vaccine rollout is that the risk is consistently being pushed down the age cohorts towards younger people. Now the risk of the most transmissive and virulent variant yet is going to punish our children when schools re open.
He also doesnt seem to be concerned about long covid.
Still some intersting information, thanks.
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Russian socialism will rise again
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Herainestold wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:17 pmThank you. That Dr. Jha is very smooth and persuasive. I don't trust him.headshot wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:27 amHerainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28
I think he plays down the risk to children. A consequence of our vaccine rollout is that the risk is consistently being pushed down the age cohorts towards younger people. Now the risk of the most transmissive and virulent variant yet is going to punish our children when schools re open.
He also doesnt seem to be concerned about long covid.
Still some intersting information, thanks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58071898Children who become ill with coronavirus rarely experience long-term symptoms, with most recovering in less than a week, research suggests. King's College London scientists say that while a small group may experience prolonged illness, they were "reassured" that number was low. Headaches and tiredness were the most common symptoms seen. A Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health expert said the data reflected what doctors saw in clinics.
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Never let facts or science-based analysis get in the way of H's loss of reason.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Severe pediatric COVID cases on the rise (Daily Memphian)Tessa K wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:04 pmHerainestold wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:17 pmThank you. That Dr. Jha is very smooth and persuasive. I don't trust him.headshot wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:27 amHerainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28
I think he plays down the risk to children. A consequence of our vaccine rollout is that the risk is consistently being pushed down the age cohorts towards younger people. Now the risk of the most transmissive and virulent variant yet is going to punish our children when schools re open.
He also doesnt seem to be concerned about long covid.
Still some intersting information, thanks.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58071898Children who become ill with coronavirus rarely experience long-term symptoms, with most recovering in less than a week, research suggests. King's College London scientists say that while a small group may experience prolonged illness, they were "reassured" that number was low. Headaches and tiredness were the most common symptoms seen. A Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health expert said the data reflected what doctors saw in clinics.
Serious cases of COVID-19 have doubled at Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital in 10 days, a worrisome barometer as pediatric cases tick up across the region.
“It’s both increased and sustained,” said Dr. Nick Hysmith, medical director of infection prevention at Le Bonheur and associate professor at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center.
Eight children are hospitalized at Le Bonheur with COVID; two are in critical care.
Two others died over the weekend. One was a resident of Shelby County. The other was to be transferred to Le Bonheur but died before leaving a rural hospital.
Hysmith did not say how old they were or where the child had been hospitalized.
“What we’ve seen in the last week and half is that children are in critical care for COVID-19 illness requiring significant intervention. And that number is being sustained,” Hysmith said.
https://dailymemphian.com/section/busin ... 2021-08-04“The recent increase in pediatric cases in Shelby County and adjoining states should serve as a wake-up call to Shelby County parents that children can and do get and transmit the COVID-19 virus,” Taylor said.
At Christ Community Health Services, a network of clinics serving primarily the poor in the Memphis area, the rise in symptomatic pediatric cases is startling.
“Before the Delta variant came, the children who tested positive were usually healthy members of the family in which there were one or two adult cases,” said pediatrician Andrew Nearn.
“In the last month, I have seen children come in with coughs, fever, malaise – just ill-appearing – and testing positive. I’d never seen kids this symptomatic until the Delta variant came out,” he said.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Coincidently, this has appeared: on the BBC news site
"My interest is in the future, because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there"