Summer Solstice Unlockdown

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Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
2%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
19
42%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
11%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
9
20%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
11
24%
 
Total votes: 45

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:43 pm

Do the five of us who voted correctly in the poll win a prize? A double mask goodie bag?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:53 am

Need to restart the poll for the next deadline.

I'm still betting on another lockdown before Christmas. Maybe two.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:18 pm

I still think "the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required" but of course the government can't relockdown again, it barely wanted to postpone unlockdowning.

11,007 new cases today in the UK.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:54 pm

Tank fly boss walk jam nitty gritty according to the words of Professor Chris Whitty:
... my expectation is that we will get a further winter surge, late autumn/winter surge.

...

So therefore we’ll get the current wave, an exit wave, and then I do think most people think that there will be further problems over the winter.
So what's happening now, going up again because of Delta, is actually the "exit wave"? That's not a thing.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:49 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:54 pm
Tank fly boss walk jam nitty gritty according to the words of Professor Chris Whitty:
... my expectation is that we will get a further winter surge, late autumn/winter surge.

...

So therefore we’ll get the current wave, an exit wave, and then I do think most people think that there will be further problems over the winter.
So what's happening now, going up again because of Delta, is actually the "exit wave"? That's not a thing.
So, is that three more lockdowns or only two?
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:54 pm

It won't be a lockdown it'll be red zones where there's high prevalence until practically all of the country is a red zone but still it's not a national lockdown.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:24 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:54 pm
It won't be a lockdown it'll be red zones where there's high prevalence until practically all of the country is a red zone but still it's not a national lockdown.
If there are no more lockdowns amidst surging third and fourth waves the NHS will founder. Staff are burnt out and many are thinking of leaving, to the EU, to America, to Australia.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:19 pm

It's not technically 'foreign' travel (yet) but the hordes of Scots descending on Central London this morning and by now heading for Wembley can't bode well. The ones I saw mid morning were already too close and too drunk (nice kilts though).

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:35 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:24 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:54 pm
It won't be a lockdown it'll be red zones where there's high prevalence until practically all of the country is a red zone but still it's not a national lockdown.
If there are no more lockdowns amidst surging third and fourth waves the NHS will founder. Staff are burnt out and many are thinking of leaving, to the EU, to America, to Australia.
It's not just the burnout, there's the post traumatic stress too.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:20 am

OffTheRock wrote:
Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:35 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:24 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:54 pm
It won't be a lockdown it'll be red zones where there's high prevalence until practically all of the country is a red zone but still it's not a national lockdown.
If there are no more lockdowns amidst surging third and fourth waves the NHS will founder. Staff are burnt out and many are thinking of leaving, to the EU, to America, to Australia.
It's not just the burnout, there's the post traumatic stress too.
Which will leave us painfully exposed to the current wave. Prepare for the CFR to increase exponentially.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Jul 01, 2021 2:05 pm

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:24 pm

July 19 is Liberation Day (in Nicaragua)

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:31 am

Tessa K wrote:
Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:24 pm
July 19 is Liberation Day (in Nicaragua)
Nicaragua has low case numbers and low vax numbers.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:16 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:31 am
Tessa K wrote:
Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:24 pm
July 19 is Liberation Day (in Nicaragua)
Nicaragua has low case numbers and low vax numbers.
It was a joke.

http://aglobalworld.com/holidays-around ... in%201979.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by tom p » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:09 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:27 pm
To be fair, when they published the roadmap they did say they would wait until the 4th week of each stage before deciding to proceed with the next one...so, why do the press keep asking them if a day is achievable after only two or three weeks?
'cos journalists are moronic c.nts

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Fri Jul 02, 2021 3:54 pm

tom p wrote:
Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:09 pm
headshot wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:27 pm
To be fair, when they published the roadmap they did say they would wait until the 4th week of each stage before deciding to proceed with the next one...so, why do the press keep asking them if a day is achievable after only two or three weeks?
'cos journalists are moronic c.nts
Cos editors keep hassling journalists to write articles even when there is no news.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:57 pm

Tessa K wrote:
Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:16 am
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:31 am
Tessa K wrote:
Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:24 pm
July 19 is Liberation Day (in Nicaragua)
Nicaragua has low case numbers and low vax numbers.
It was a joke.

http://aglobalworld.com/holidays-around ... in%201979.
Oh. In any case looks like Nica is doing okay
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 03, 2021 7:15 am

UK could have lockdown by stealth this summer
Dr Kucharski told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme: “If we get to a situation over the summer where there’s 30-40,000 cases per day you’ll be potentially looking at maybe even over a million contacts per day who may be eligible for quarantine.

“In situations where you’re quarantining large numbers of people you do end up with similar outcomes to lockdown.
Yes, that's the point of contact tracing. Although it may be the case that vaccinated people who test negative should be allowed out of self isolation, maybe if people could afford to self isolate in the first place you wouldn't be having a new wave now. (There'll be "30-40,000 cases per day" next week).

There's also (the google mirror of) the daily mail on the same story:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... ating.html
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Sat Jul 03, 2021 11:48 am

I was talking with a friend a few days ago and we said that we'd carry on wearing a mask on public transport and in shops even though we've both been double-vaxxed, based on our own research, so it's interesting to hear the BMA say the same thing.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jul 03, 2021 11:59 pm

Tessa K wrote:
Sat Jul 03, 2021 11:48 am
I was talking with a friend a few days ago and we said that we'd carry on wearing a mask on public transport and in shops even though we've both been double-vaxxed, based on our own research, so it's interesting to hear the BMA say the same thing.
I dont even pay attention to the recommendations anymore. I double mask everywhere, shop at non peak hours, avoid the tube, crowds, pubs.
I have read a lot of memoirs of people who have survived the War, holocaust, killing fields etc. It is the cautious who survive.
Masking forever
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jul 04, 2021 2:05 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Jul 03, 2021 11:59 pm
Tessa K wrote:
Sat Jul 03, 2021 11:48 am
I was talking with a friend a few days ago and we said that we'd carry on wearing a mask on public transport and in shops even though we've both been double-vaxxed, based on our own research, so it's interesting to hear the BMA say the same thing.
I dont even pay attention to the recommendations anymore. I double mask everywhere, shop at non peak hours, avoid the tube, crowds, pubs.
I have read a lot of memoirs of people who have survived the War, holocaust, killing fields etc. It is the cautious who survive.
Okay, I just re-read that and it is a bit overwrought. Sorry. Maybe I need to take a break.
Masking forever
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Russian socialism will rise again

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Jul 04, 2021 8:55 am

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by JQH » Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:28 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 04, 2021 2:05 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Jul 03, 2021 11:59 pm

I dont even pay attention to the recommendations anymore. I double mask everywhere, shop at non peak hours, avoid the tube, crowds, pubs.
I have read a lot of memoirs of people who have survived the War, holocaust, killing fields etc. It is the cautious who survive.
Okay, I just re-read that and it is a bit overwrought. Sorry. Maybe I need to take a break.
No sh.t sherlock
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:03 am

Trousers will become personal choice says whoever the hell this guy is.

I mean, I've gotten used to being at home and not having to wear trousers, it's annoying that I have to wear them to go out or go to work.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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