Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics

Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
2%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
19
42%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
11%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
9
20%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
11
24%
 
Total votes: 45

OffTheRock
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:22 pm

I work in a hospital so we just got given a huge box of them to do twice a week. I don’t think I can count the number i’ve Logged on one hand, but it’s not far off. Clearly I’m not alone based on the number of stroppy e-mails we got reminding us to log them along with nice graphs to show how the number being logged dropped off.

Switched to a different test now and that one doesn’t give you a choice you have to log it to get the result.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:43 pm


In the week before the government lifted most remaining coronavirus restrictions in England on July 19, the average person was in close contact with 3.7 individuals a day, according to the CoMix survey of more than 5,000 people in England carried out by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

But by the week ending August 2 that figure had fallen to 3.1 close contacts a day.

[…]

Half of Britons surveyed by the Office for National Statistics between August 4 and 8 said they always or often maintained social distancing when meeting a contact from outside their household.

Professor Robert West, a University College London psychologist and member of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviour, said his committee’s findings on how behaviour would change after the end of legal restrictions proved “decidedly pessimistic in retrospect”.

West said the debate over freedom day showed there are “more than just two players — government and the general public”.

“Other parts of our society — businesses, local authorities, regional governments — have stepped in, where the government has stepped back, to enforce some form of restrictions,” he added.

[…]

But Ferguson expressed concern that if England returned to pre-pandemic levels of social mixing — with one person having more than 10 close contacts a day — it might mean a big increase in cases.

“We have a lot of headroom in terms of how far contact rates can increase,” he said. “When schools reopen and people return to offices, we could see a quite major epidemic of cases and infections from September onwards.”

John Edmunds, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the Euros-driven spike in cases offered an insight into how far things still are from the pre-pandemic norm.

“You could view [the Euros] as some sort of extraordinary event but I think that’s the wrong way to look at it,” he added. “I think what it actually is, is a glimpse into normal behaviour that we’ve forgotten. It was not that different to every Friday and Saturday night in a pub before the pandemic and you could see the immediate effect.”

[…]

CoMix data show that the highest amount of close social interaction this year came over the final weekend of the last Premier League season, when fans were allowed back into stadiums and pubs opened their doors for indoor drinking.

Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, said the biggest challenge on the horizon was “a large population of unvaccinated children mixing” when the school gates are flung back open and how that could spill over into breakthrough infections among vaccinated adults.

Edmunds and Ferguson agreed that at present the UK was near herd immunity.

But “herd immunity is not an all or nothing thing”, said Ferguson. “It’s the level of immunity which keeps case numbers at a plateau given a certain number of contacts. So when contacts increase, herd immunity becomes harder to obtain.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8a10337e-c3f ... 61db970a60

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Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:09 am

Record case numbers in Scotland: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... e=Scotland
Record as in the highest daily total ever.

Case numbers have been increasing rapidly since about 16 August.

For explanations, schools went back last week on the 17th. Also, there were a record number of tests: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... e=Scotland

The most important thing to watch are hospital admissions which have been mostly flat, but the data on the dashboard is only up to the 21st. Given the lag between infection and going to hospital I wouldn't have expected to see an increase by then.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... e=Scotland

So lets see what happens.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:55 am

Detailed thread on the situation in Scotland: https://twitter.com/travellingtabby/sta ... 52032?s=21

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:08 am


A cost-benefit analysis will have set the acceptable level of Covid-19 deaths before restrictions are reintroduced at around 1,000 deaths a week, two Government advisers have told i.

Downing Street has denied it has set any “acceptable level” of Covid deaths but one adviser, who has been close to the Government since coronavirus struck 18 months ago, told i that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had privately accepted that there would be at least a further 30,000 deaths in the UK over the next year, and that the Prime Minister would “only consider imposing further restrictions if that figure looked like it could rise above 50,000”.
https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson- ... el-1170069

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Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:56 am

If there is to be 50 000 deaths per year then that level of endemic infection will probably have an effect upon every day life.

There will be far more hospital admissions and long term disability due to long Covid.

Over the long term people who are vulnerable (elderly or with co-morbidity) will will need to practice some form of isolation, as will those who care for them.

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:03 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:08 am

A cost-benefit analysis will have set the acceptable level of Covid-19 deaths before restrictions are reintroduced at around 1,000 deaths a week, two Government advisers have told i.

Downing Street has denied it has set any “acceptable level” of Covid deaths but one adviser, who has been close to the Government since coronavirus struck 18 months ago, told i that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had privately accepted that there would be at least a further 30,000 deaths in the UK over the next year, and that the Prime Minister would “only consider imposing further restrictions if that figure looked like it could rise above 50,000”.
https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson- ... el-1170069
Well you're already on 110 deaths per day on average, and it's going up with the same doubling time as cases have been for the past 20 days or so. It's a slow doubling time of 50 days but an average 140 deaths per day will arrive on about the 10th of September once the numbers for the 13th have come in. So the week after that, ending Sunday the 19th, will be the first one with more than 1000 deaths.

That's only 3 weeks from now and those deaths are inevitable because they correspond to infections which happened this week. (I previously had 0.3% CFR, but it's more like 0.4% if you ignore that peak of cases caused by young people rediscovering nightclubs and football and try to line things up with how they're going now. So you want less than about 36,000 cases per day but the current 7-day average is 34,000.)
molto tricky

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:15 pm

It's the Scotland figures that matter right now.

Pretty much disaster territory ever since schools restarted.

The difference in term dates gives England a clear signal on what to expect when schools reopen next week. The age profile in Scotland isn't too bad, but it's inevitable such a huge caseload will spread to the older age groups.

If you're going to lockdown, the earlier the better. I'm not sure where that leaves us when we have a government absolutely determined to lockdown late. We've still got a reasonable chance of getting away with the govt's recklessness, but it would need unknown factors that cause England to follow a different trajectory to Scotland.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:59 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:15 pm
It's the Scotland figures that matter right now.

Pretty much disaster territory ever since schools restarted.

The difference in term dates gives England a clear signal on what to expect when schools reopen next week. The age profile in Scotland isn't too bad, but it's inevitable such a huge caseload will spread to the older age groups.

If you're going to lockdown, the earlier the better. I'm not sure where that leaves us when we have a government absolutely determined to lockdown late. We've still got a reasonable chance of getting away with the govt's recklessness, but it would need unknown factors that cause England to follow a different trajectory to Scotland.
From summer solstice unlockdown to autumnal equinox re-lockdown.

How long until Scotland locks down again? They appear to have a more sensible government.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:43 pm

Two threads from the excellent Maehgan Kall

First, good news on 16-25s.
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 43939?s=20

About 85% now have antibodies from infection and vaccines and:
And more so than any other age group, young adults are seeing real falls in:
• infection incidence
• seroprevalence
• new cases
However, its not looking so good for the under 16s.
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 86577?s=20

Absent vaccination they're going to get infected. See the thread for consequences.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm


The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.

The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.

A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown ... ns-1185533

As of 31 August 2021, 988 people were admitted to hospital, and on 3 September 7606 were in hospital, with 1034 on ventilators.

On 20 October 2020, 7852 people were in hospital and 698 were on ventilators. The lockdown was announced on 31 October 2021.

Obviously it’s a different situation now, as the rate of increase is much less steep.

Also, the number of adults with antibodies must be over 95% by now. As some point soon we’re going to be looking at no one left without antibodies from vaccination or infection.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Fishnut » Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:33 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm
As of 31 August 2021, 988 people were admitted to hospital, and on 3 September 7606 were in hospital, with 1034 on ventilators.

On 20 October 2020, 7852 people were in hospital and 698 were on ventilators.
How is it that so many more people are on ventilators this time round compared to last year?
it's okay to say "I don't know"

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Gfamily
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:52 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:33 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm
As of 31 August 2021, 988 people were admitted to hospital, and on 3 September 7606 were in hospital, with 1034 on ventilators.

On 20 October 2020, 7852 people were in hospital and 698 were on ventilators.
How is it that so many more people are on ventilators this time round compared to last year?
I expect we're probably better at keeping the very ill still with us for longer now.
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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Mon Sep 06, 2021 10:45 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:52 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:33 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm
As of 31 August 2021, 988 people were admitted to hospital, and on 3 September 7606 were in hospital, with 1034 on ventilators.

On 20 October 2020, 7852 people were in hospital and 698 were on ventilators.
How is it that so many more people are on ventilators this time round compared to last year?
I expect we're probably better at keeping the very ill still with us for longer now.
Also need to consider the lag - people generally don't go straight from positive test to ventilator.

17th August 2021 - 37,094 new cases by specimen date. 2 weeks later on 31st August 2021 there were 1,014 on ventilators

6th October 2020 - 17,053 new cases by specimen date. 2 weeks later on 20th October 2020 there were 698 on ventilators

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Sep 07, 2021 3:47 am

Fishnut wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:33 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm
As of 31 August 2021, 988 people were admitted to hospital, and on 3 September 7606 were in hospital, with 1034 on ventilators.

On 20 October 2020, 7852 people were in hospital and 698 were on ventilators.
How is it that so many more people are on ventilators this time round compared to last year?
Delta is so much worse than last year's version.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Sep 07, 2021 4:06 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm

Also, the number of adults with antibodies must be over 95% by now. As some point soon we’re going to be looking at no one left without antibodies from vaccination or infection.
True, but we know that you can be re-infected over and over. And all of those un vaccinated children.

We are going to need permanent NPIs, or recurring NHS crises. Its one or the other.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by tom p » Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:22 am

Fishnut wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:33 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm
As of 31 August 2021, 988 people were admitted to hospital, and on 3 September 7606 were in hospital, with 1034 on ventilators.

On 20 October 2020, 7852 people were in hospital and 698 were on ventilators.
How is it that so many more people are on ventilators this time round compared to last year?
More ventilators?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:49 am

tom p wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:22 am
Fishnut wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:33 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:19 pm
As of 31 August 2021, 988 people were admitted to hospital, and on 3 September 7606 were in hospital, with 1034 on ventilators.

On 20 October 2020, 7852 people were in hospital and 698 were on ventilators.
How is it that so many more people are on ventilators this time round compared to last year?
More ventilators?
And more people receiving non-invasive ventilation?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:01 am

headshot wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:49 am
tom p wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:22 am
Fishnut wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:33 pm

How is it that so many more people are on ventilators this time round compared to last year?
More ventilators?
And more people receiving non-invasive ventilation?
Hadn't the idea of CPAP instead of intubation already been invented by the winter 2020-21 wave? But still, it seems like a greater proportion of the people in hospital need some kind of ventilation this time.

(The previous peak, in January this year, was about 4000 on mechanical ventilation; being a quarter of the way there would already be triggering restrictions in Italy.)
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:26 am

Actually, plotting on the same graph, I notice that numbers in MV beds lagged a bit behind numbers in hospital during the winter 2020-21 peak. So the MV:normal-beds ratio was lower on the way up and higher on the way down. Now of course we're on the way up (slowly) and the MV:normal-beds ratio is quite high. So dunno, but there's that.
MV-vs-normal.png
MV-vs-normal.png (32.59 KiB) Viewed 225 times
While the Healthcare in England | dot.covid.uk page shows* the total admissions and admission rates in various age bands, there doesn't seem to be any obvious way to obtain admission rates by age as a function of time to see if the age profile of people in hospital has changed.

Maybe it's that there's more younger people in hospital, and they're "worth trying to save" i.e. have a better chance of surviving intubation, but like I said, there's no data for that.

* - I note it also shows R, which is good to know, although why it should be here and not on the Cases in England page isn't obvious.
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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:47 am

headshot wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:49 am
And more people receiving non-invasive ventilation?
The COVID dashboard does indicate that the figure is the number of patients in "mechanical ventilation beds" not the number intubated specifically.
COVID-19 patients in mechanical ventilation beds.

The UK figure is the sum of the four nations' figures and can only be calculated when all nations' data are available. Data are not reported by each nation every day. Caution is needed when interpreting the data as the definitions are not always consistent between the four nations.

England
England figures are the numbers of patients in beds which are capable of delivering mechanical ventilation and includes Nightingale hospitals. Data are reported daily by trusts to NHS England and NHS Improvement. The data collected is classified as management information. It has been collected on a daily basis with a tight turn round time. No revisions have been made to the dataset, where known errors have come to light trusts have made the appropriate correction in the following day’s data. Any analysis of the data should be undertaken with this in mind. Daily data at NHS Trust level is reported weekly on Thursdays, in line with NHS England reporting.

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland include suspected COVID-19 patients in their COVID-19 patient count for dates prior to 13 April 2020. Their figures are the numbers of patients in beds which are capable of delivering mechanical ventilation.

Scotland
Scotland include suspected COVID-19 patients in their COVID-19 patient count. Their figures include people in intensive care units and may include a small number of patients who are not on mechanical ventilation. On 11 September 2020 the data were updated to exclude people (in larger NHS Boards) who had previously tested positive for COVID-19 but remain in intensive care units for another reason.

Wales
Wales include suspected COVID-19 patients in their COVID-19 patient count. Their figures include invasive ventilated beds in a critical care setting, plus those outside of a critical care environment and also include surge capacity.

From 19 October 2020, specialist critical care beds have been included in these figures. From 13 November 2020, only critical care beds that could be staffed are included as available.

From 18 January 2021, no patients occupying an invasive ventilated bed (critical care bed) should be counted as “recovering” COVID-19 patients as they are still requiring a high level of care. Any patient previously reported as “recovering” will now be counted under “confirmed”. This will result in an increase in the number of invasive ventilated beds occupied by “confirmed” COVID-19 patients (an increase of around 14 patients at the point of implementation) and no invasive ventilated beds showing as occupied by “recovering” patients. This change will have no impact on the total number of COVID-19 related patients.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:50 am

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:47 am
headshot wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:49 am
And more people receiving non-invasive ventilation?
The COVID dashboard does indicate that the figure is the number of patients in "mechanical ventilation beds" not the number intubated specifically.
Yes indeed, I wrote 'ventilators' above as I was using my phone and couldn't be bothered to write "mechanical ventilation beds".

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:00 am

Yes so why is there such a high proportion of mechanical ventilation bed occupancy compared to last time?

The Nightingale Hospitals are closed aren't they? (Or at least, not being used for this.)
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:05 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:00 am
Yes so why is there such a high proportion of mechanical ventilation bed occupancy compared to last time?
I don't know. I suspect that its because seriously ill patients are living longer and so are spending longer on mechanical ventilation beds. Could be a mixture of vaccination and patients who are younger than a year ago.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:14 am

It's also possible that with low and not-increasing-fast occupancy you might as well stick a CPAP bubble on someone's head, doesn't really hurt, no sense "saving" the capacity for a surge which is months away.
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