I guess the question is will we get more deaths from a big spike like last winter or a slow and steady accumulation? Given that the last years numbers include the Winter Surge, i expect we will probably be in the 70-80 000 deaths over the next year. And cases are going up again.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 6:23 pmWell, it would be 50 000 deaths over the year, if the next 51 weeks were to be the same.* But I doubt they will be. Maybe the next week or two will also be similar but then it will come down, because cases are coming down quickly for some reason. Then, who knows what effects schools and autumn will have along with the growing degree of immunity in the population.
* - there have been more than 90 000 deaths since this time last year, and more than 60 000 deaths since the beginning of 2021.
The Torygraph has an article describing three possible outcomes for the winter, The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. I am voting for the Ugly scenario.
I am pretty sure lockdown is inevitable, the motto of this government is "Too little, too late"The fear in the UK is two-fold: that the NHS would not be able to cope with two respiratory outbreaks simultaneously and that a flu outbreak - if it did occur - could be especially nasty as we have been nearly two years without one.
“We are likely to be more susceptible to flu since the overall population immunity will not have been built up last winter and so will have waned”, said Dr John McCauley, the director of the Worldwide Influenza Centre at the Francis Crick Institute in London.
On the other hand, we may be less vulnerable to an outbreak because the level of flu in circulation globally remains relatively low. That’s “the balance”, he said.
It’s this uncertainty that is causing leading voices to urge stronger government action.
“The Government has set out the measures it believes can allow the country to manage the autumn and winter period,” said former prime minister Tony Blair in a new report released today which, among other measures, calls for the rapid introduction of vaccine passports.
“In our view this plan needs to be accelerated and additional measures introduced, or we run the risk of further lockdowns,” Mr Blair added.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -good-bad/