Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
2%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
19
42%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
11%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
9
20%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
11
24%
 
Total votes: 45

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:19 pm

an tweet
"I'm 23, I didn't get vaccinated, I didn't think it would happen to me"

"I'm 70, I'm vulnerable, I've barely left my house for 18 months, I've had both vaccines, I did everything they told me to do, I've been so careful, I don't understand"

The two faces of covid right now.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:09 pm

Oh and maybe the case numbers would be a bit higher if booking a PCR f.cking worked.
tehfail_2021-09-20_20-00-04.jpg
tehfail_2021-09-20_20-00-04.jpg (121.15 KiB) Viewed 449 times
molto tricky

Beaker
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Beaker » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:50 pm

Ah. Not just me then.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:55 am

headshot wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:12 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:13 pm
[it] appears to be that deaths are occurring among the over 80s.
Twas ever thus, right? So are these now deaths BECAUSE of Covid, or deaths WITH Covid?
Which is a good question.

I haven't had time to look at the data, but this suggests that its mostly of Covid rather than with:
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status ... 93922?s=20

PeteB
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by PeteB » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:23 am

PeteB wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:58 pm
Under 20s really increasing growth now, will be interesting to see how far it is able to spread into the heavily vaccinated age groups - hopefully if the vaccinated catch it from the U20s, they won't be too infectious to others that are vaccinated (think this will be critical as to how bad this winter is)

there was a bit on twitter

https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/sta ... 0088151043

https://twitter.com/danc00ks0n/status/1 ... 47/photo/1

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:55 am

I don't think we've ever got away from a direct correlation - if young people rates soar, it always spreads upwards to the elderly. The gearing rate, or should that be dampening rate, might change but it's always there.

Or in bouncy ball terms, it's always going to bounce to some degree. Vaccines are too ineffective.

Children going back to school is going to kill vaccinated 85 year olds.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by raven » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:49 pm

Are we seeing that in Scotland where schools went back earlier?

Case rates are higher in Scotland right now, but also in NIreland & Wales, plus Manchester and Birmingham. But lower in London and Bristol. Yet Scotland has higher vaccination rates than London, so why would that be? Is it just variation in cases as outbreaks are staying local, or something else?

Maybe London & Bristol got hit harder previously, so are more protected now 'cos infection or infection+vaccine gives better protection than vaccination alone? What if antibodies stay high if you're re-exposed to the virus, and drop if you're not? That might explain the differences in these graphs from the ONS which have been puzzling me.
Percentages testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies by single year of age:
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics.png
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics.png (55.29 KiB) Viewed 321 times
ETA: Puzzling me because there's more of a fall off in antibodies in the elderly in Scotland and NI, I mean.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by PeteB » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:55 pm


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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:27 pm

Amazing charts.

I'm gonna invent more jargon. "The injection-infection paradox".

We know the risk to children of Covid infection is so tiny it's about the same as the tiny risk of a vaccine injection and there's no clear cut argument for giving children a vaccine.

And yet:

- we cheer when we see a statistic like 500,000 >12 year old children getting an injection
- we cry out in anguish when we see a statistic like 500,000 >12 year olds getting an infection
- we write gushing articles and twitter threads on how wonderful the NHS and vaccine inventers are for giving 500,000 children immunity through injection
- we write why-oh-why articles and twitter threads on how awful the govt is for giving 500,000 children immunity through infection

The stability in cases for over 50s is great to see in those distribution charts, leading to slow in hospitalisations we've begun to detect. The change bulge in 10-19 years is also great to see. OK, it's an infectious diseases and cases will spread upwards, but children are basically only going to catch Covid once in this school year. Better now while the NHS is not under severe stress, before the winter flu season etc.

But we emotionally perceive two almost identical things as being opposites and struggle to recognise a seemingly absurd proposition as true.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:11 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:27 pm
Amazing charts.

I'm gonna invent more jargon. "The injection-infection paradox".

We know the risk to children of Covid infection is so tiny it's about the same as the tiny risk of a vaccine injection and there's no clear cut argument for giving children a vaccine.

And yet:

- we cheer when we see a statistic like 500,000 >12 year old children getting an injection
- we cry out in anguish when we see a statistic like 500,000 >12 year olds getting an infection
- we write gushing articles and twitter threads on how wonderful the NHS and vaccine inventers are for giving 500,000 children immunity through injection
- we write why-oh-why articles and twitter threads on how awful the govt is for giving 500,000 children immunity through infection

The stability in cases for over 50s is great to see in those distribution charts, leading to slow in hospitalisations we've begun to detect. The change bulge in 10-19 years is also great to see. OK, it's an infectious diseases and cases will spread upwards, but children are basically only going to catch Covid once in this school year. Better now while the NHS is not under severe stress, before the winter flu season etc.

But we emotionally perceive two almost identical things as being opposites and struggle to recognise a seemingly absurd proposition as true.
One big difference is that an infected child may go on to infect a vulnerable adult, whereas vaccination won’t have that effect.

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:31 am

Yeah, of course, like I said it's an infectious disease.

But we've got 9 million children under 12 who've got to get immunity. Those immunisations that happen while the NHS is not under severe stress are a win, those that happen during the winter NHS bad patch are a loss. We're a nice long way into the 9 million and adding to it at a pace of almost 100,000 per week.

Now's the ideal time for combining a firebreak with a reverse firebreak. Lockdown for adults. A Covid party in every classroom.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:49 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:31 am
Yeah, of course, like I said it's an infectious disease.

But we've got 9 million children under 12 who've got to get immunity. Those immunisations that happen while the NHS is not under severe stress are a win, those that happen during the winter NHS bad patch are a loss. We're a nice long way into the 9 million and adding to it at a pace of almost 100,000 per week.

Now's the ideal time for combining a firebreak with a reverse firebreak. Lockdown for adults. A Covid party in every classroom.
Fine as long as the children aren't allowed to go home.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:01 am

I wonder how boarding schools are handling this?

You can always tell the best course of action from how the elites handle their personal lives.

So, is Eton running as a massive covid free-for-all, trying to get the baby lizards free natural immunity?
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:53 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:09 pm
Oh and maybe the case numbers would be a bit higher if booking a PCR f.cking worked...
An update to this saga is the person "has COVID-19. Yesterday's PCR positive, despite negative LFTs every day, including today. She has hardly any symptoms. [Other child] was more ill.

"Homeschooling until eternity"

(The beginning of the story regarded sending children to school even if there are positive tests in the household.)
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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:56 am

Chris Whitty warns MPs it is ‘inevitable’ unvaccinated children will catch Covid

And by "unvaccinated" he means "we're morons for deciding to start now when the schools have already gone back". Still, it's never too late to do the right thing.
new figures showed that Covid infections have spread rapidly inside England’s schools, following the government’s decision to end the use of preventitive measures such as masks, social distancing and self-isolation.

Robert Halfon, the Conservative MP who chairs the committee, asked if the witnesses acknowledged there was “low transmission” of Covid among the 12-15 age group.

Whitty replied: “That is not true, there is definitely substantial transmission happening in this age group. In fact the age group we are talking about is the one in which the highest rate of transmission is currently occurring, as far as we can tell.”
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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:35 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:09 pm
Oh and maybe the case numbers would be a bit higher if booking a PCR f.cking worked.
And if people with a cough booked a PCR test...

Is 'the worst cold ever' going around?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-58624295
The retail worker from Bournemouth caught what she calls "the worst cold ever" at a festival.

...

"I barely slept, I'd wake up in the night just coughing, a constantly runny nose and feeling so tired," she adds.

Rebecca did lateral flow tests and got negative results, but has been ill for more than a week, and was left wondering "if it's ever going to end".

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