Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics

Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
3%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
15
43%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
14%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
6
17%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
8
23%
 
Total votes: 35

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3076
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:10 pm

The UK roadmap is to completely unlockdown by 21 June.

(They're calling it "no social contact limitations", so could still mean other requirements such as wearing masks etc).

Step 1: 8 March: schools; 29 March: rule of 6 for outdoor meetings. Minimise travel and no holidays.

Step 2: 12 April Outdoor pub gardens and food. Non-essential retail, hairdressers, gyms, libraries. Funerals for 30, weddings for 15. Outdoor attractions. Households could go on holiday to self-contained accomodation.

Step 3: 17 May Indoor pubs and food. Rule of 6 indoors. Indoor attractions and sport. Hotels. Outdoor/indoor events, festivals & sports - but for restricted capacity. Possibly international travel.

Step 4: 21 June No legal limits on any social contract. Remaining businesses can open, including nightclubs. No longer need to work from home. Probably international travel.

As a reminder, all groups 1-9 will be first dosed by 15 April (1 May effective immunity) and all adults by 31 July (15 Aug effective immunity). There will still be millions adults unvaccinated at the 21 June date.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

User avatar
headshot
Catbabel
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:27 pm

"Back to normal by spring" is what they said in November.

I can't help but think they've worked backwards from that date to hit their arbitrary target.

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3076
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:42 pm

Full PDF of plan now published. Worth a read.

https://t.co/ZPaSQR0dXb?amp=1
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

OffTheRock
Stargoon
Posts: 138
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:52 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:43 pm

The last option ought not to be an option because vaccine roll out, while simultaneously feeling like the most likely option because Boris.

Herainestold
Dorkwood
Posts: 994
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:21 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:43 pm
The last option ought not to be an option because vaccine roll out, while simultaneously feeling like the most likely option because Boris.


It seems that every country except Israel and maybe Australia (because it is just getting started), feel that their government has screwed up the vaccine roll out.

User avatar
Martin_B
Catbabel
Posts: 865
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:20 pm
Location: Perth, WA

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Martin_B » Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:53 am

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:21 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:43 pm
The last option ought not to be an option because vaccine roll out, while simultaneously feeling like the most likely option because Boris.


It seems that every country except Israel and maybe Australia (because it is just getting started), feel that their government has screwed up the vaccine roll out.
Can we blame Boris for our vaccine roll-out, then?
"My interest is in the future, because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there"

Herainestold
Dorkwood
Posts: 994
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:01 am

Presumably if Boris wasn't in charge the UK would be ahead of Israel in the vaccine race.

User avatar
Sciolus
Catbabel
Posts: 627
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:27 am

The strategy seems to be carry on running hot, hope the vaccines control symptomatic cases and maybe spread as well, and hope to hell that having loads of virus circulating in a half-immunised population doesn't encourage new mutations to take hold.

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3076
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:41 am

We'll be lucky to stay at 5,000 cases per day.

For context, the Excel f.ck up kept reported cases at 6,000 for a few days, with the number jumping to 10,000 per day when the problem unwound. This sort of level is perillously close to the cliff edge. A couple of doublings and...

We need to be under 1,000 - when a couple of doublings still leaves room to save the situation.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

User avatar
bob sterman
Snowbonk
Posts: 505
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:54 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:41 am
We'll be lucky to stay at 5,000 cases per day.
Indeed.

One hope I have is that if the vaccines can reduce transmission signficantly - and a lot of transmission was previously happening in healthcare settings - then they will have a substantial effect on overall case numbers because people who tend to spend a lot of time in healthcare settings (NHS staff and older people) will have been vaccinated.

OffTheRock
Stargoon
Posts: 138
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:52 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:04 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:21 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:43 pm
The last option ought not to be an option because vaccine roll out, while simultaneously feeling like the most likely option because Boris.


It seems that every country except Israel and maybe Australia (because it is just getting started), feel that their government has screwed up the vaccine roll out.
It's not about screwing up the vaccine roll out. That's going well, which is why the last option shouldn't be an option. But Boris is in charge of everything else to so f.cking the unlockdown up seems almost a certainty.

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3076
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:49 pm

The great race begins: virus vs vaccine.

Schools unlocked with 7-day average officially at 5,889. Given the lags of a week or two, it's probably fallen to about 4,000 today - a bit better than the 5,000 I forecast.

Will it fall from here? Stay around the same level? Start going up? About half the UK population has some sort of immunity, either from the illness or the vaccine. That's going to drag R back, counterbalancing schools pushing it forward.

Still looks 50/50 to me.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

User avatar
bob sterman
Snowbonk
Posts: 505
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:07 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:49 pm
The great race begins: virus vs vaccine.

Schools unlocked with 7-day average officially at 5,889. Given the lags of a week or two, it's probably fallen to about 4,000 today - a bit better than the 5,000 I forecast.

Will it fall from here? Stay around the same level? Start going up? About half the UK population has some sort of immunity, either from the illness or the vaccine. That's going to drag R back, counterbalancing schools pushing it forward.

Still looks 50/50 to me.
Yup - on the side of the virus is the fact that the group of adults interacting most closely with the kids (parents, teachers) are not in the segement of the population with high vaccination rates at the moment (e.g. > 70s).

So I think case numbers will trend up - but perhaps not hopsitalisations and deaths to a great extent.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 5955
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:08 pm

No kids and very few parents will have been vaccinated yet. I don't see what's going to be different this time around.

ETA as bob says
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 2104
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Grumble » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:08 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:07 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:49 pm
The great race begins: virus vs vaccine.

Schools unlocked with 7-day average officially at 5,889. Given the lags of a week or two, it's probably fallen to about 4,000 today - a bit better than the 5,000 I forecast.

Will it fall from here? Stay around the same level? Start going up? About half the UK population has some sort of immunity, either from the illness or the vaccine. That's going to drag R back, counterbalancing schools pushing it forward.

Still looks 50/50 to me.
Yup - on the side of the virus is the fact that the group of adults interacting most closely with the kids (parents, teachers) are not in the segement of the population with high vaccination rates at the moment (e.g. > 70s).

So I think case numbers will trend up - but perhaps not hopsitalisations and deaths to a great extent.
I think all we can aim for right now is that it becomes endemic but controlled
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

User avatar
Sciolus
Catbabel
Posts: 627
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:52 pm

The good thing about Johnson's roadmap is that it's changing one parameter* at a time, so if cases go up again over the next few weeks we can confidently attribute it to schools. Likewise with later stages. Since we still don't have a good grasp of what encourages spread and how much, this is a really useful experiment.

*Well, two, because there's the weather as well.

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3076
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed May 05, 2021 8:17 am

The 17 May Step 3 is going to be formally confirmed.

There's been a hell of a lot of jumping the gun - nobody seems to understand (or deliberately choose to misunderstand) the Step 2 rule of outdoor pubs. It's still two households only, limit of 6 people. But generally we are seeing larger groups of friends gathering.

So the amount of change on 17 May will be lower than it seems. My guess is that people will still avoid much of the indoor activity allowed in Step 3, particularly if there's a lucky period of good weather.

With average of 15 deaths a day there's a pretty good argument for bringing Step 4 forward from 21 June. It's not clear why we are continuing lockdown restrictions that damage the economy and people's lives for a largely non-fatal disease. Arguments for continued lockdown/zero Covid tend to wander about without focus, from variants to Long Covid to vaccine escape. Without a coherent argument against it's pretty clear the anti-lockdown side is going to win with ease.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

User avatar
headshot
Catbabel
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Wed May 05, 2021 8:32 am

Many venues in the theatre and other seated live entertainment sectors aren’t opening until September, making use of furlough.

They anticipate that the 50% capacity limits between 17th May and 21st June, plus ongoing hesitancy to gather indoors, will mean their business mode is unsustainable until more are vaccinated.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Light of Blast
Posts: 5955
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed May 05, 2021 11:56 am

headshot wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 8:32 am
Many venues in the theatre and other seated live entertainment sectors aren’t opening until September, making use of furlough.

They anticipate that the 50% capacity limits between 17th May and 21st June, plus ongoing hesitancy to gather indoors, will mean their business mode is unsustainable until more are vaccinated.
Speaking of which: https://www.musicweek.com/media/read/sk ... ues/083123
Sky Arts has commissioned CC-Lab to produce a new music documentary and live performance format entitled The Live Revival.

The series will shine a light on hard-hit small music venues, which have been shuttered during the pandemic.
Phil Edgar-Jones, director, Sky Arts and Entertainment, said: “The pandemic has accelerated many trends – whether that’s how we shop or how we consume our entertainment – and many familiar areas of life might change forever, so on Sky Arts we wanted to turn our attention to the plight of the small music venue; the places all the great bands or solo artists started out and learned their craft. And we’ve been overwhelmed by the response from some of the greats of British music who have gone back to the places they began to pay homage with incredible performances that shine a light on these important places.”

The Music Venue Trust will also support the series as part of their #SaveOurVenues campaign. The charity is committed to protecting, securing and improving grassroots music venues and ensuring their survival following the unprecedented threat to their existence in the past year.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

User avatar
Tessa K
After Pie
Posts: 2417
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:07 pm
Location: Closer than you'd like

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Wed May 05, 2021 12:15 pm

Boris is relying on the fact that now the oldest and most vulnerable are mostly vaccinated, if there is another wave of the same variants it will be young people who get it. They won't get as ill and need hospital treatment so that's all OK.

If there's a new variant that the vaccines can't cope with we will be screwed.

Foreign travel while kids are still unvaccinated is a dumb idea because kids are germ bags and will bring back Covid to infect all the unvaccinated. Not everyone will quarantine properly even if that system is in place.

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 4488
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed May 05, 2021 12:20 pm

Tessa K wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 12:15 pm
Boris is relying on the fact that now the oldest and most vulnerable are mostly vaccinated, if there is another wave of the same variants it will be young people who get it. They won't get as ill and need hospital treatment so that's all OK.

If there's a new variant that the vaccines can't cope with we will be screwed.

Foreign travel while kids are still unvaccinated is a dumb idea because kids are germ bags and will bring back Covid to infect all the unvaccinated. Not everyone will quarantine properly even if that system is in place.
The CFR would still be ~0.1% in the younger* people. Better than ~2% which you get when the whole population is susceptible but it won't take long to have 20 times more cases if you let the wave progress without restrictions.
molto tricky

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3076
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed May 05, 2021 12:44 pm

CFR is way lower than 0.1% in under 40s - which is where UK is nearly first dosed to. Remember <40s with pre-existing risks are already vaccinated.

And the words herd and immunity have to be mentioned in close proximity... There's little chance of a new wave with current variants. A wave would need to start now in order to win the race against the vaccination program - otherwise it'll never get headway against all adults being first dosed.

All that really leaves is new variants defeating the vaccines. Which is hypothetical right now. There's no valid reason for lockdown to defend against hypotheticals. The traffic light system can handle the heavy lifting of travel to places like India.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

Herainestold
Dorkwood
Posts: 994
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed May 05, 2021 1:29 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 12:44 pm
CFR is way lower than 0.1% in under 40s - which is where UK is nearly first dosed to. Remember <40s with pre-existing risks are already vaccinated.

And the words herd and immunity have to be mentioned in close proximity... There's little chance of a new wave with current variants. A wave would need to start now in order to win the race against the vaccination program - otherwise it'll never get headway against all adults being first dosed.

All that really leaves is new variants defeating the vaccines. Which is hypothetical right now. There's no valid reason for lockdown to defend against hypotheticals. The traffic light system can handle the heavy lifting of travel to places like India.
CFR is much higher for younger peoples with variants. We actually don't kno what it is for the Indian variant in the UK yet, as the cases have just started to climb and we havent seen the full effect on hospitalizations and mortality. It would be foolish to rapidly unlock now. We need to get everybody vaccinated and start to prepare variant booster doses now. We need to pause the unlock and resume distancing and masking or we are setting ourseves up for a hellish summer.

Last year we ignored the Italian data and thought it cant happen here. Now we are doing the same for the Indian.
.

User avatar
bob sterman
Snowbonk
Posts: 505
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Wed May 05, 2021 2:12 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 1:29 pm
CFR is much higher for younger peoples with variants. We actually don't kno what it is for the Indian variant in the UK yet, as the cases have just started to climb and we havent seen the full effect on hospitalizations and mortality. It would be foolish to rapidly unlock now. We need to get everybody vaccinated and start to prepare variant booster doses now.
Indeed. There's currently a large pool of unvaccinated people in their 20s, 30s and 40s out and about in cities - which new variants could spread through.

With the focus on finishing 2nd doses for risk groups and over 50s - the rate of new 1st doses being given has been pretty low for the past month.

At this rate we're going to have a big chunk of the <50 population either with just a 1st dose, or still not had a first dose, well into June.

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3076
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed May 05, 2021 2:17 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 1:29 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 12:44 pm
CFR is way lower than 0.1% in under 40s - which is where UK is nearly first dosed to. Remember <40s with pre-existing risks are already vaccinated.

And the words herd and immunity have to be mentioned in close proximity... There's little chance of a new wave with current variants. A wave would need to start now in order to win the race against the vaccination program - otherwise it'll never get headway against all adults being first dosed.

All that really leaves is new variants defeating the vaccines. Which is hypothetical right now. There's no valid reason for lockdown to defend against hypotheticals. The traffic light system can handle the heavy lifting of travel to places like India.
CFR is much higher for younger peoples with variants. We actually don't kno what it is for the Indian variant in the UK yet, as the cases have just started to climb and we havent seen the full effect on hospitalizations and mortality. It would be foolish to rapidly unlock now. We need to get everybody vaccinated and start to prepare variant booster doses now. We need to pause the unlock and resume distancing and masking or we are setting ourseves up for a hellish summer.

Last year we ignored the Italian data and thought it cant happen here. Now we are doing the same for the Indian.
.
Fact free b.llsh.t.

Last year we were tracking Italy exactly, with a 14 day lag. This year we are as completely unlike India as it's possible to be.

Cases per day are falling. Falling even though testing levels are very high - leading to a world-beating test positive rate per test of 0.2%. For context Germany positive rate is 12%, France 8% and USA 5%.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

Post Reply