Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics

Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
2%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
19
42%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
11%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
9
20%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
11
24%
 
Total votes: 45

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Aug 16, 2021 5:54 pm

Oh you mean that tests that have decreased by about 5% during the period over which cases have increased by 10%? If it would have constant testing and a 15% increase in cases, what would Rt be?

Sigh... this is what the data actually look like since the beginning of August, on taking 7-day averages. (Day 526 is the 30th of July).
oh-yeah-my-bad-Rt-is-8-after-all.png
oh-yeah-my-bad-Rt-is-8-after-all.png (13.5 KiB) Viewed 422 times
So yes, it's strictly true that the number of tests is decreasing but no, it can't possibly be making a much larger Rt look like an Rt of "only a little bit more than one" because it's just not that big of an effect.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by KAJ » Mon Aug 16, 2021 6:19 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 5:54 pm
Oh you mean that tests that have decreased by about 5% during the period over which cases have increased by 10%? If it would have constant testing and a 15% increase in cases, what would Rt be?

Sigh... this is what the data actually look like since the beginning of August, on taking 7-day averages. (Day 526 is the 30th of July).

oh-yeah-my-bad-Rt-is-8-after-all.png

So yes, it's strictly true that the number of tests is decreasing but no, it can't possibly be making a much larger Rt look like an Rt of "only a little bit more than one" because it's just not that big of an effect.
If I'd meant any of that I'd have said it. I posted a brief, factual, sourced, answer to a specific question.
shpalman wrote:What decreasing number of tests?
No need to thank me.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by dyqik » Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:15 pm

As a general point, and not just in reference to this situation, or to the UK, it's not just the number of tests anyway - it also matters who is getting tested and why.

I take a test at least once a week, despite being fully vaxxed for 4 months, minimizing exposure risks, and having no symptoms and no known contact with those who have tested positive. It's required for me to work. As workplaces open up, more tests may be mandated by employers. At the same time, its possible that people start ignoring contact tracing more and so there's a reduction in tests "on suspicion", which means fewer asymptomatic and mild cases will get recored. That will obviously show up in positivity rates, but that won't tell you if there's a change in the hidden population of untested mild/asymptomatic cases.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:27 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:15 pm
As a general point, and not just in reference to this situation, or to the UK, it's not just the number of tests anyway - it also matters who is getting tested and why.

I take a test at least once a week, despite being fully vaxxed for 4 months, minimizing exposure risks, and having no symptoms and no known contact with those who have tested positive. It's required for me to work. As workplaces open up, more tests may be mandated by employers. At the same time, its possible that people start ignoring contact tracing more and so there's a reduction in tests "on suspicion", which means fewer asymptomatic and mild cases will get recored. That will obviously show up in positivity rates, but that won't tell you if there's a change in the hidden population of untested mild/asymptomatic cases.
Yes. I was sure there's been some more discussion of this recently, but there are too many covid threads and I can't find the bit I was thinking of.

However, this extract shpalman himself posted only a week ago points out the decline in testing young (unvaccinated, more likely to be asymptomatic) people specifically:
shpalman wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:08 pm
Prof. Christina Pagel on Twitter has some graphs
Most regions are flat, but NE continuing to decline a lot from its large peak and some regions Yorks, E Midlands, SW) are going up slightly.
Cases are now very concentrated in young adults. Cases in under 15s have dropped a lot since end of term - partly fewer cases and partly less testing.

Cases dropping older adults too but more slowly than in children.
I don’t think anyone predicted just how much a pool of infection school kids were.

The routine testing that used to be taking place in workplaces and educational settings is generally not happening now, AIUI. Which probably means fewer mild/asymptomatic cases will get picked up.

I don't know if that effect will be strong enough to drastically alter estimations of R (which is why I asked), but if the "plan" is to encourage infections in young, unvaccinated people till they reach "herd immunity" it might be good to have some useful data. I suppose the ONS population screening stuff is what we need.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:39 pm

KAJ wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:54 pm
From coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing last months "All Pillars" numbers.
Thanks for this, by the way, KAJ. It looks like the big drop-off in testing after "Freedom Day" hasn't continued in a similar fashion, so as shpalman points out probably isn't having much effect on recent R numbers.

That said, I bet the trend looks more obvious if the data could be restricted to "tests per unvaccinated person".
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by dyqik » Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:07 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:27 pm

The routine testing that used to be taking place in workplaces and educational settings is generally not happening now, AIUI. Which probably means fewer mild/asymptomatic cases will get picked up.
Here I think it'll go the other way fairly soon - universities are reopening for on-campus learning, and requiring weekly testing as well as proof of vaccination - or twice/thrice weekly testing for the unvaccinated. Our offices will be the same as we bring more people in.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by KAJ » Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:41 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:39 pm
KAJ wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:54 pm
From coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing last months "All Pillars" numbers.
Thanks for this, by the way, KAJ. It looks like the big drop-off in testing after "Freedom Day" hasn't continued in a similar fashion, so as shpalman points out probably isn't having much effect on recent R numbers.

That said, I bet the trend looks more obvious if the data could be restricted to "tests per unvaccinated person".
Here's my routine plot of the last 6 weeks test data (red line is 7-day moving average, black line is regression fit).
Tests.png
Tests.png (47.22 KiB) Viewed 357 times
Regression fit isn't very good so I don't regard it as a good description of the data.

Code: Select all

Coefficients:
               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)    13.64015    0.03324 410.394  < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)1 -0.83542    0.08217 -10.167 1.07e-11 ***
poly(date, 2)2  0.09179    0.08107   1.132 0.265690    
dayMon          0.05220    0.04721   1.106 0.276834    
dayTue         -0.02054    0.04708  -0.436 0.665430    
dayWed          0.17006    0.04698   3.620 0.000976 ***
dayThu          0.13549    0.04690   2.889 0.006780 ** 
dayFri          0.05185    0.04684   1.107 0.276338    
daySat         -0.14323    0.04680  -3.060 0.004372 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.08104 on 33 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.8427
My very limited understanding of R estimates suggests they are strongly lagging, so probably not substantially influenced by the last week or two's numbers - but I'm really not equipped to have an opinion on R estimates :?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:17 pm

Cheers. I suspect this would be a solid case for using a breakpoint/"broken stick" model, or even two separate fits, due to the sharp drop immediately following "freedom day" which is probably overwhelming a lot of any other signal in the data - would explain why the fit is hugely underestimating pre-freedumb test numbers.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 8:06 am

Do those "routine" tests generally use the rapid "lateral flow device" or are they full PCR?

It seems to me that the number of cases found by LFD tests (and then confirmed by PCR) is more or less stable since the beginning of August (actually it looks stable since the last week of July but the minimum in cases was at the end of July and I was considering the slow increase since then) and is anyway a small proportion of total tests.
England-cases-by-test-and-specimen-date-20210816.png
England-cases-by-test-and-specimen-date-20210816.png (106.62 KiB) Viewed 313 times
Despite being "Testing" information this is actually on the "Cases" page; England's Testing page indicates about half a million LFDs per day, only slowly decreasing since the beginning of August, while there are about 2 million people getting PCR tests each week.
molto tricky

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Aug 17, 2021 10:11 am

Sciolus wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:06 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:10 pm
It doesn't explain the confusing group of people who voluntarily wear a mask on the bus, but under their chin. I kind of get the not covering the nose thing. That group of people have always existed. Up until now I'd always assumed the the 'under the chin' group of people were just breaking the rules because they didn't want to wear a mask. But now they don't have to wear a mask and their are still wearing it under their chin anyway.
I was sitting in a cafe earlier, and watched as a woman came in, sat down, took a mask from her bag, looped it over her ears, and carefully tucked it under her chin. She still had it like that when I left.

Mask wearing has definitely reduced over the last couple of weeks.
Whole new fun game to play this week. Pick the stranger to sit next to on the bus who looks least likely to give you covid. Largely futile because I guess if one of the non mask wearing or chin mask wearing people has covid it doesn’t matter too much where you are sitting after an hour.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by KAJ » Tue Aug 17, 2021 10:22 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 8:06 am
Do those "routine" tests generally use the rapid "lateral flow device" or are they full PCR?
<sni>
I used "routine" to describe my plot, not the tests.

The data I plotted came from the "Tests conducted by Pillar" section of coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing where the "About" tab has more information.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:01 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:27 pm
The routine testing that used to be taking place in workplaces and educational settings is generally not happening now, AIUI. Which probably means fewer mild/asymptomatic cases will get picked up.
This "routine".
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bolo » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:17 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:07 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:27 pm

The routine testing that used to be taking place in workplaces and educational settings is generally not happening now, AIUI. Which probably means fewer mild/asymptomatic cases will get picked up.
Here I think it'll go the other way fairly soon - universities are reopening for on-campus learning, and requiring weekly testing as well as proof of vaccination - or twice/thrice weekly testing for the unvaccinated. Our offices will be the same as we bring more people in.
Same for a growing number of non university employers. Be vaccinated or get tested once a week or so. Federal government and some state governments. Amazon, I think. Tyson Foods. Probably a lot more that I'm not remembering or didn't hear about.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:39 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:01 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:27 pm
The routine testing that used to be taking place in workplaces and educational settings is generally not happening now, AIUI. Which probably means fewer mild/asymptomatic cases will get picked up.
This "routine".
From the link KAJ posted:
Number of confirmed positive, negative or void COVID-19 virus test results. This is a count of test results and may include multiple tests for an individual person. Virus tests test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus and include all pillar 1 and 2 tests and any virus tests undertaken in pillar 4. Virus tests include PCR tests conducted in laboratories and rapid lateral flow tests that give results in less than an hour, without needing to go to a laboratory.
I've never done a lateral flow test and don't know how they work in the UK. Would results from home tests end up in these figures?
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:49 pm

UK regulator approves Moderna Covid vaccine for older children

How many Moderna doses does the UK have? (Italy has only received less than 10 million, compared to 53 million Pfizer doses. Details about which doses have been given would be in the git repository if you can be bothered to parse it.)

Trick question, I know you don't know, for "security reasons", except for that one guy on twitter who extrapolates from Wales and Scotland and reckoned you'd run out of Pfizers but haven't except for the way supermarkets order ice cream or something.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:23 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:39 am
I've never done a lateral flow test and don't know how they work in the UK. Would results from home tests end up in these figures?
You're meant to submit your result online or by phone. How many people actually do though I have no idea.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:22 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:23 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:39 am
I've never done a lateral flow test and don't know how they work in the UK. Would results from home tests end up in these figures?
You're meant to submit your result online or by phone. How many people actually do though I have no idea.
Ok cheers.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:10 pm

Anecdatum: I did one, went to report the (negative) result, saw it asked for the test serial number, realised I had thrown it away, and decided I CBA.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:00 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:49 pm
UK regulator approves Moderna Covid vaccine for older children

How many Moderna doses does the UK have? (Italy has only received less than 10 million, compared to 53 million Pfizer doses. Details about which doses have been given would be in the git repository if you can be bothered to parse it.)

Trick question, I know you don't know, for "security reasons", except for that one guy on twitter who extrapolates from Wales and Scotland and reckoned you'd run out of Pfizers but haven't except for the way supermarkets order ice cream or something.
weekly summary of Yellow Card reporting says:
... 4 August 2021. At this date, an estimated 20.8 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 24.8 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been administered, and around 14.7 million and 23.8 million second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca respectively. An approximate 1.4 million first doses and approximately 0.5 million second doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna have also now been administered.
So you've only administered about 1.9 million Moderna doses, compared to 35.5 million Pfizer. Suggests to me that the approval of Moderna for children aged 12 and over is not going to make much difference.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:02 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 10:11 am
Sciolus wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:06 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:10 pm
It doesn't explain the confusing group of people who voluntarily wear a mask on the bus, but under their chin. I kind of get the not covering the nose thing. That group of people have always existed. Up until now I'd always assumed the the 'under the chin' group of people were just breaking the rules because they didn't want to wear a mask. But now they don't have to wear a mask and their are still wearing it under their chin anyway.
I was sitting in a cafe earlier, and watched as a woman came in, sat down, took a mask from her bag, looped it over her ears, and carefully tucked it under her chin. She still had it like that when I left.

Mask wearing has definitely reduced over the last couple of weeks.
Whole new fun game to play this week. Pick the stranger to sit next to on the bus who looks least likely to give you covid. Largely futile because I guess if one of the non mask wearing or chin mask wearing people has covid it doesn’t matter too much where you are sitting after an hour.
Ten seconds to transmit Delta.

I haven't used public transportation for 18 months and I have no plans to do so.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:38 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:00 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:49 pm
UK regulator approves Moderna Covid vaccine for older children

How many Moderna doses does the UK have? (Italy has only received less than 10 million, compared to 53 million Pfizer doses. Details about which doses have been given would be in the git repository if you can be bothered to parse it.)

Trick question, I know you don't know, for "security reasons", except for that one guy on twitter who extrapolates from Wales and Scotland and reckoned you'd run out of Pfizers but haven't except for the way supermarkets order ice cream or something.
weekly summary of Yellow Card reporting says:
... 4 August 2021. At this date, an estimated 20.8 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 24.8 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been administered, and around 14.7 million and 23.8 million second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca respectively. An approximate 1.4 million first doses and approximately 0.5 million second doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna have also now been administered.
So you've only administered about 1.9 million Moderna doses, compared to 35.5 million Pfizer. Suggests to me that the approval of Moderna for children aged 12 and over is not going to make much difference.
The MHRA approved Pfizer for 12-17 year olds on the 9th Jul I think. They only got around to announcing they were going to give 1 dose to the very top of that age group last week so Moderna might make even less difference than you might think. There’s a general unwillingness to vaccinate that age group. Whether that’s because we don’t have much vaccine or because of pressure from HART/U4T I don’t know.

JCVI does seem to be out of step with our own regulator and just about everywhere else though.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:59 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:23 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:39 am
I've never done a lateral flow test and don't know how they work in the UK. Would results from home tests end up in these figures?
You're meant to submit your result online or by phone. How many people actually do though I have no idea.
It's great - you complete a LFT - spend ages filling in a long web form reporting the negative result - then a few seconds later you get an SMS back with the "news" that "your LFT test result is negative".

People probably get bored with this after a while so I would imagine most negative results are not getting entered into the system.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Aug 17, 2021 6:18 pm

Nobody was ever really going to enter negative results into a system twice a week every week. You’d have thought the government have enough behaviour scientists to have realised this. Although I’m fairly certain the only reason the government counts them in the stats is so they can boast about how many tests have been carried out, so they probably don’t care much as long as some people do.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Hunting Dog » Tue Aug 17, 2021 6:33 pm

I've only done one lateral flow test, as I was going to meet someone I wouldn't normally see and we both thought we should check... when I went to register the negative result I found it didn't fit any of the selectable reasons for taking the test, which did slightly put me off the idea of doing more of them in future.

(she didn't register hers because she's not really into online stuff and hadn't noticed that bit of the instructions)

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:08 pm

I watched a bit of Italian news this evening, Sicily's hospital occupancy looks set to tip it into the Yellow zone.
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