Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
2%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
18
41%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
11%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
9
20%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
11
25%
 
Total votes: 44

raven
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by raven » Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:34 pm

the adult population of the UK is about 53m (nobody's too sure how many EU workers and entrepreneurs have left this f.cked up little island).
The ONS estimates UK population is about 67m. England is about 56m though. Of which 27m have had two, so I make that aprox 30m unvaccinated, of which maybe something half are under 18. So maybe 15m or so unvaccinated adults.

Some pretty graphs of vaccine coverage from PHE:
Screenshot 2021-07-06 at 14-59-38 Weekly Flu and COVID-19 report_w26 -firstdoses pdf.png
Screenshot 2021-07-06 at 14-59-38 Weekly Flu and COVID-19 report_w26 -firstdoses pdf.png (79.83 KiB) Viewed 452 times
Screenshot 2021-07-06 at 15-02-40 Weekly Flu and COVID-19 report_w26 seconddoses pdf.png
Screenshot 2021-07-06 at 15-02-40 Weekly Flu and COVID-19 report_w26 seconddoses pdf.png (67.24 KiB) Viewed 452 times

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Sciolus
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Sciolus » Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:46 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:34 pm
This bit makes very little sense either.
Witty wrote:There is quite a strong view by many people, including myself actually, that going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up into the autumn when schools are going back and when we’re heading into the winter period when the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure for many other reasons,
If the plan was to unlock in July, and then lockdown again in September, then there might be some point to that. If we were only going to have a few months of freedom, then it might be better to have them during the summer than the autumn. But the plan is to unlock in July and stay unlocked in September. This means that, when schools and universities go back, the levels of Covid will be higher than they would be if we had delayed unlocking until that point (and levels of Influenza will also be higher), so we can expect that, over the autumn, the NHS will be under greater pressure, not less, as a result of an early unlocking.
That Whittey quote is working under the assumption that it comes in waves -- it goes up, it comes down again -- so it's better to have the inevitable wave in the summer. But it only comes down because of control measures. The government policy now is get the wave going over the summer and keep it going until everyone that's going to die is dead -- exactly the same policy as early March 2020, but with vaccines reducing the death count by 90% or so.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

raven wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:34 pm
the adult population of the UK is about 53m (nobody's too sure how many EU workers and entrepreneurs have left this f.cked up little island).
The ONS estimates UK population is about 67m. England is about 56m though. Of which 27m have had two, so I make that aprox 30m unvaccinated, of which maybe something half are under 18. So maybe 15m or so unvaccinated adults.
Let's not muddle up UK and England. Stick to one or the other. Your figures are going awry as a result.

The UK population is about 67m, 53m adults and 14 million children. Of the 67m, around 22m are completely unvaccinated (about 8m adults and 14m children). A further 11m adults are only first-dosed (most of who are adults 18-40).

It's important to note that about 6m of the 8m unvaccinated adults are unvaccinated by choice - they have been offered multiple times, some over months, and have declined. The remaining 2m will be 18-30s who want the vaccine and have an appointment this week/next week or who just haven't got round to making their appointment or stopping by at the local drop-in vaccination centre, plus a handful of people who can't have the vaccine for health reasons.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:39 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm
It's important to note that about 6m of the 8m unvaccinated adults are unvaccinated by choice
Doesn't make any difference to how likely they are to be a +1 on the UK's covid dashboard.
molto tricky

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:11 pm

It does make a difference to how much we should care. Let's be honest about that.
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snoozeofreason
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by snoozeofreason » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:36 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:46 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:34 pm
This bit makes very little sense either.
Witty wrote:There is quite a strong view by many people, including myself actually, that going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up into the autumn when schools are going back and when we’re heading into the winter period when the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure for many other reasons,
If the plan was to unlock in July, and then lockdown again in September, then there might be some point to that. If we were only going to have a few months of freedom, then it might be better to have them during the summer than the autumn. But the plan is to unlock in July and stay unlocked in September. This means that, when schools and universities go back, the levels of Covid will be higher than they would be if we had delayed unlocking until that point (and levels of Influenza will also be higher), so we can expect that, over the autumn, the NHS will be under greater pressure, not less, as a result of an early unlocking.
That Whittey quote is working under the assumption that it comes in waves -- it goes up, it comes down again -- so it's better to have the inevitable wave in the summer. But it only comes down because of control measures. The government policy now is get the wave going over the summer and keep it going until everyone that's going to die is dead -- exactly the same policy as early March 2020, but with vaccines reducing the death count by 90% or so.
Yes, but for the Whitty strategy to work, we have to kill off most of the susceptible population by September, and it's already July. This is going to mean Covid parties isn't it? All right for some, I suppose, but I have no social skills and I hate parties.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:11 pm

The quote seems to make sense if he assumes that the act of ending restrictions will lead to extra social contact - eg lots of people holding ‘end of lockdown’ parties. If so it would be better to get that over during the summer. No idea whether it’s a real effect or not.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:57 pm

If you think there will be multiple remaining waves it does make sense to try and manage them.
What you are managing is when people will die.
There is another way but we know this govrnment will never take it.
Delta changes everything.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:35 am

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK: 7 July 2021

In England, it is estimated that around 9 in 10 adults, or 89.8% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 88.2% to 91.3%) would have tested positive for antibodies against coronavirus (COVID-19) - SARS-CoV-2 - on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Wales, it is estimated that 9 in 10 adults, or 91.8% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 90.1% to 93.3%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Northern Ireland, it is estimated that close to 9 in 10 adults, or 87.2% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 84.2% to 90.2%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

In Scotland, it is estimated that over 8 in 10 adults, or 84.7% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 82.4% to 86.9%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 14 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

Across all four countries of the UK, there is a clear pattern between vaccination and testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies but the detection of antibodies alone is not a precise measure of the immunity protection given by vaccination.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... /7july2021

Its remarkable that Covid is still rippling through the adult population. The age stratification lpm mentioned earlier probably has an effect - unvaccinated people aren't randomly distributed. However, another part of the explanation has to be that for many, prior infection or vaccination are mostly preventing death, but they aren't preventing transmission in a significant proportion of the population.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by hakwright » Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:48 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:11 pm
The quote seems to make sense if he assumes that the act of ending restrictions will lead to extra social contact - eg lots of people holding ‘end of lockdown’ parties. If so it would be better to get that over during the summer. No idea whether it’s a real effect or not.
I'm still trying to figure out the reasoning behind the quotes from Boris, Whitty etc about "better to unlock now, rather than in x months". Based on some reporting, there seems to be a reasonable scientific consensus on this (at least, based on some of the modelling that has been done).

If you assume that when restrictions are lifted, many people celebrate, go to the pub, and over-compensate in various ways, then there is additional risk of the virus spreading at that point. Doing this in summer (fewer indoor interactions) helps reduce this risk compared to the autumn. But surely the higher proportion of vaccinations that will be in place by autumn helps to balance this?

And if we assume that with no change in restrictions on July 19th, the current rapid rise of infections is likely to peak in the next couple of months, if unlockdown happened in the autumn, it would probably start at a point where cases were somewhat lower (compared to now). So you would be throwing the same amount of fuel but onto a smaller fire. Wouldn't that also help make the case for lifting restrictions somewhat later?

The only other reason I can think of that might push the balance back towards doing it sooner is the extra natural immunity that might arise from all the cases, but compared to the stronger immunity from more vaccinations, is that really a decent scientific argument?

Would be really interested to see a summary of the modelling and scientific arguments that were used to justify the "summer unlockdown" vs "autumn unlockdown". Have these been published?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:00 pm

It seems to me that we're back to aiming to 'flatten the curve' by letting the rise spread it over a longer period and (I assume) hoping it peaks before the usual winter surge of hospitalisations.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:07 pm

The govt will probably start a campaign to get people to have the flu jab as early as possible to free up hospital beds. I wonder if it will be free this year, at least for people over a certain age.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:10 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:00 pm
It seems to me that we're back to aiming to 'flatten the curve' by letting the rise spread it over a longer period and (I assume) hoping it peaks before the usual winter surge of hospitalisations.
Yes. The plan is to have 5,000 to 10,000 patients in hospital every day for the next six months, rather than periods when it spikes up to 20,000 or 30,000.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:24 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:35 am
Its remarkable that Covid is still rippling through the adult population. The age stratification lpm mentioned earlier probably has an effect - unvaccinated people aren't randomly distributed. However, another part of the explanation has to be that for many, prior infection or vaccination are mostly preventing death, but they aren't preventing transmission in a significant proportion of the population.
It was criminal of Johnson to open the doors to Delta due to his desperation for a trade deal. Obviously everything possible should have been done to block it and delay the arrival and spread.

Now Delta is spreading from the UK to much of the EU. Sorry. But really, what the f.ck? Why did European countries open their doors to UK visitors, knowing we were a plague island? They might be desperate for tourists but how can they make the same mistake as Johnson did?

And now Germany is saying they'll be open to double-dosed Brits - when it's obvious vaccination is only a partial prevention of the transmission of Delta.

EU: take a look at our growth charts despite excellent vaccination rates, look at your own lower vaccination rates, and then blockade every one of us.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by tom p » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:59 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:34 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:16 am
This Whitty guy doesn't seem very smart. If you delay the wave to a time when more people are vaccinated, you'll get less transmission, illness and death.

I get the impression that these politics types have decided that because they personally have received two vaccines, then they can proceed as if everyone else has the same privilege.
This bit makes very little sense either.
Witty wrote:There is quite a strong view by many people, including myself actually, that going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up into the autumn when schools are going back and when we’re heading into the winter period when the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure for many other reasons,
If the plan was to unlock in July, and then lockdown again in September, then there might be some point to that. If we were only going to have a few months of freedom, then it might be better to have them during the summer than the autumn. But the plan is to unlock in July and stay unlocked in September. This means that, when schools and universities go back, the levels of Covid will be higher than they would be if we had delayed unlocking until that point (and levels of Influenza will also be higher), so we can expect that, over the autumn, the NHS will be under greater pressure, not less, as a result of an early unlocking.
I can only assume that he is factoring in Johnson being a lying piece of sh.t who will flip flop and lie about it, and Pravda The Scum & The Daily Heil will say he never said it was irreversible.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by tom p » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:02 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:24 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:35 am
Its remarkable that Covid is still rippling through the adult population. The age stratification lpm mentioned earlier probably has an effect - unvaccinated people aren't randomly distributed. However, another part of the explanation has to be that for many, prior infection or vaccination are mostly preventing death, but they aren't preventing transmission in a significant proportion of the population.
It was criminal of Johnson to open the doors to Delta due to his desperation for a trade deal. Obviously everything possible should have been done to block it and delay the arrival and spread.

Now Delta is spreading from the UK to much of the EU. Sorry. But really, what the f.ck? Why did European countries open their doors to UK visitors, knowing we were a plague island? They might be desperate for tourists but how can they make the same mistake as Johnson did?

And now Germany is saying they'll be open to double-dosed Brits - when it's obvious vaccination is only a partial prevention of the transmission of Delta.

EU: take a look at our growth charts despite excellent vaccination rates, look at your own lower vaccination rates, and then blockade every one of us.
Sadly for me the Netherlands is effectively blockading people from the UK.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:11 pm

hakwright wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:48 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:11 pm
The quote seems to make sense if he assumes that the act of ending restrictions will lead to extra social contact - eg lots of people holding ‘end of lockdown’ parties. If so it would be better to get that over during the summer. No idea whether it’s a real effect or not.
I'm still trying to figure out the reasoning behind the quotes from Boris, Whitty etc about "better to unlock now, rather than in x months". Based on some reporting, there seems to be a reasonable scientific consensus on this (at least, based on some of the modelling that has been done).

If you assume that when restrictions are lifted, many people celebrate, go to the pub, and over-compensate in various ways, then there is additional risk of the virus spreading at that point. Doing this in summer (fewer indoor interactions) helps reduce this risk compared to the autumn. But surely the higher proportion of vaccinations that will be in place by autumn helps to balance this?

And if we assume that with no change in restrictions on July 19th, the current rapid rise of infections is likely to peak in the next couple of months, if unlockdown happened in the autumn, it would probably start at a point where cases were somewhat lower (compared to now). So you would be throwing the same amount of fuel but onto a smaller fire. Wouldn't that also help make the case for lifting restrictions somewhat later?

The only other reason I can think of that might push the balance back towards doing it sooner is the extra natural immunity that might arise from all the cases, but compared to the stronger immunity from more vaccinations, is that really a decent scientific argument?

Would be really interested to see a summary of the modelling and scientific arguments that were used to justify the "summer unlockdown" vs "autumn unlockdown". Have these been published?
Its not clear that extra vaccination would make a big difference. The modelling by James Ward (above link) suggested it probably wouldn't.

As the above link shows, it looks like 90% of the UK adult population already has some antibodies. The problem is that vaccines are only 60-70% effective at preventing transmission, I assume that post-infection immunity is similar or lower. So increasing the proportion of vaccinated adults (for example to 95%) probably isn't going to change things very much.

For me there are two main issues. Firstly, the extent to which vaccination reduces or prevents long covid in young adults. There would be a huge public health benefit from avoiding long term chronic illness so there could be a justification to continuing restrictions until all of them had a doubel dose.

The other issue is whether to vaccinate children. Likewise, we don't know much about whether or to what extent vaccination will prevent them from getting serious illness or long covid. Mortality is very low though. If there is a major benefit it might have been a good idea to continue restrictions until they are vaccinated. There is also the issue of children passing on infections to more vulnerable older people.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:37 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:24 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:35 am
Its remarkable that Covid is still rippling through the adult population. The age stratification lpm mentioned earlier probably has an effect - unvaccinated people aren't randomly distributed. However, another part of the explanation has to be that for many, prior infection or vaccination are mostly preventing death, but they aren't preventing transmission in a significant proportion of the population.
It was criminal of Johnson to open the doors to Delta due to his desperation for a trade deal. Obviously everything possible should have been done to block it and delay the arrival and spread.

Now Delta is spreading from the UK to much of the EU. Sorry. But really, what the f.ck? Why did European countries open their doors to UK visitors, knowing we were a plague island? They might be desperate for tourists but how can they make the same mistake as Johnson did?

And now Germany is saying they'll be open to double-dosed Brits - when it's obvious vaccination is only a partial prevention of the transmission of Delta.

EU: take a look at our growth charts despite excellent vaccination rates, look at your own lower vaccination rates, and then blockade every one of us.
That viral horse has already bolted. Over a week ago Delta accounted for 50% of cases in Germany. It’ll be a lot higher today.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-diges ... a-58086507

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jul 07, 2021 2:02 pm

I suppose the thing to have done would have been to impose restrictions on the UK at the same time as India, but that would have been tricky politically.

But yeah, it's all over Europe now already. I expect Europe would go for more lockdowns rather than the Johnson herd-thinning "strategy".
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jul 07, 2021 2:48 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 2:02 pm
I suppose the thing to have done would have been to impose restrictions on the UK at the same time as India, but that would have been tricky politically.

But yeah, it's all over Europe now already. I expect Europe would go for more lockdowns rather than the Johnson herd-thinning "strategy".
As mentioned, lockdowns have been used as a means to buy time until vaccination programmes are completed. I can't see lockdowns continuing indefinitely with vaccinated populations. Though individual locations - eg care homes - may still have restrictions. Once they have finished vaccinating European states are going to be like the UK or Sweden. There's no time left to buy.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jul 07, 2021 2:50 pm

Yes, I agree. But we're some months off finishing vaccinating everyone I think.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Fishnut » Wed Jul 07, 2021 3:26 pm

And we're creating the perfect circumstances for a vaccine-resistant variant to evolve.
it's okay to say "I don't know"

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jul 07, 2021 3:29 pm

The mRNA vaccines result in a lot of asymptomatic cases which drive transmission. So the vaccines actually have the paradoxical effect of increasing cases while reducing severe outcomes. Because of this further NPIs must be used in addition to vaccination. To live with this virus in the future we are going to have to continue with masking, distancing, quarantine and isolation, increased testing, strict border controls and lockdown to lessen the pressure on health care facilities. The government may say "no more lockdowns", but there will be no options if we need to save healthcare.
Delta changes everything.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Wed Jul 07, 2021 3:42 pm

No more restrictions, you say?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 07, 2021 4:35 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Jul 07, 2021 3:26 pm
And we're creating the perfect circumstances for a vaccine-resistant variant to evolve.
Why?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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