Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
2%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
18
41%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
11%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
9
20%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
11
25%
 
Total votes: 44

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:53 pm

It happened so suddenly, didn't it. Not like everyone had months and months to sort out their vaccine plan.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:16 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:53 am
Bureaucratic systems are imperfect. It's the duty of the citizen to fulfil their responsibilities nonetheless.
It's OK if you live where your GP is registered. This is not the case for many university students. That is now a significant proportion of the unvaccinated population.
Aston University have been running vaccine clinics on campus for a while now. That must be true of a number of establishments.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:30 pm

headshot wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:16 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:53 am
Bureaucratic systems are imperfect. It's the duty of the citizen to fulfil their responsibilities nonetheless.
It's OK if you live where your GP is registered. This is not the case for many university students. That is now a significant proportion of the unvaccinated population.
Aston University have been running vaccine clinics on campus for a while now. That must be true of a number of establishments.
Yeah, our health centre at UEA was very on the ball, including when we needed special jabs for foreign fieldwork etc. I'd expect they'll be doing a lot to reach students - but does that only kick in after they return to campus?

But also yeah, I do share lpm's expectation that most people should be able to sort themselves out.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:26 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:53 am
Bureaucratic systems are imperfect. It's the duty of the citizen to fulfil their responsibilities nonetheless.
It's OK if you live where your GP is registered. This is not the case for many university students. That is now a significant proportion of the unvaccinated population.
Is there an actual shortage of vaccines right now or is this just bureaucratic rigidity?
Delta changes everything.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:18 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:26 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:53 am
Bureaucratic systems are imperfect. It's the duty of the citizen to fulfil their responsibilities nonetheless.
It's OK if you live where your GP is registered. This is not the case for many university students. That is now a significant proportion of the unvaccinated population.
Is there an actual shortage of vaccines right now or is this just bureaucratic rigidity?
In the cases I know it's the latter. My son managed it from Aberdeen to Derbyshire at a walk-in centre. My daughter (Derbyshire to Sutherland) hasn't managed to get anything yet.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:24 pm

She's got until Sunday, otherwise I'll reclassify her from a get-round-to-it-later to a can't-be-arsed.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:05 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:24 pm
She's got until Sunday, otherwise I'll reclassify her from a get-round-to-it-later to a can't-be-arsed.
She is fairly isolated, working here: https://scottishwildlifetrust.org.uk/re ... da-island/ for 5 months, which does limit the available options. However from my observations, the Scottish NHS and the English NHS not meshing well together did seem to be a problem for both my kids who have crossed the border. Just as I was a lot later than most people my age in the High Peak (because they were ahead of the rest of the population)
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:04 pm

Out and about today I heard a load of people coughing. E.g. sat outside a cafe in a park 6 out of the 12 people in my field of view - from 3 different family groups were all hacking away - so I got out of there pretty sharpish. Outdoor transmission risk may be low - but I was surrounded!!

Maybe they'd all done PCR tests and these were all just part of the standard seasonal surge in respiratory infections we normally see each July?

:roll: :roll: :roll:

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:32 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:04 pm
Out and about today I heard a load of people coughing. E.g. sat outside a cafe in a park 6 out of the 12 people in my field of view - from 3 different family groups were all hacking away - so I got out of there pretty sharpish. Outdoor transmission risk may be low - but I was surrounded!!

Maybe they'd all done PCR tests and these were all just part of the standard seasonal surge in respiratory infections we normally see each July?

:roll: :roll: :roll:
Hayfever. Pollen and spores are crazy at the moment.

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:00 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:24 pm
She's got until Sunday, otherwise I'll reclassify her from a get-round-to-it-later to a can't-be-arsed.
She is fairly isolated, working here: https://scottishwildlifetrust.org.uk/re ... da-island/ for 5 months, which does limit the available options. However from my observations, the Scottish NHS and the English NHS not meshing well together did seem to be a problem for both my kids who have crossed the border. Just as I was a lot later than most people my age in the High Peak (because they were ahead of the rest of the population)
Oh. Well that's fair enough. Guillemots are notoriously slapdash at giving vaccinations.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:22 pm

headshot wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:32 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:04 pm
Out and about today I heard a load of people coughing. E.g. sat outside a cafe in a park 6 out of the 12 people in my field of view - from 3 different family groups were all hacking away - so I got out of there pretty sharpish. Outdoor transmission risk may be low - but I was surrounded!!

Maybe they'd all done PCR tests and these were all just part of the standard seasonal surge in respiratory infections we normally see each July?

:roll: :roll: :roll:
Hayfever. Pollen and spores are crazy at the moment.
Not convinced. There was no sneezing, just deep chesty coughs in some cases, and croup sounds for others. And one middle aged couple with identical coughs. Is there assortative marriage for hayfever???

Community COVID prevalence has been climbing round here, about 50% of the classes at local schools are currently supposed to be "isolating". But many parents are not getting tests for kids with symptoms - and many are out and about coughing and spluttering all over the place.

What limited adherence there was to any rules seems to have evaporated.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Wed Jul 14, 2021 6:51 am

As the government abandons us to Covid, Sadiq Khan at least is showing some common sense and good leadership by keeping face masks compulsory on all London transport after the 19th.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-57826331

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:44 am

3.7 million people in England are classed as clinically extremely vulnerable to Covid, that's 6.7% of the population or nearly seven out of every hundred. Boris is happy to throw them under the bus.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:15 am

CEV were double-dosed long ago.

Vaccines take everyone down a rung or two on the risk ladder, not just the elderly. Why expect CEV to be any different? Deaths become hospitalisations, hospitalisations become very ill at home.

What percentage of the 6.7% CEV were unable to get vaccinated? It's that fraction who are left exposed.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:18 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:15 am
CEV were double-dosed long ago.

Vaccines take everyone down a rung or two on the risk ladder, not just the elderly. Why expect CEV to be any different? Deaths become hospitalisations, hospitalisations become very ill at home.

What percentage of the 6.7% CEV were unable to get vaccinated? It's that fraction who are left exposed.
The trouble is that people who are CEV are often higher up that ladder to begin with so taking them down a rung or two still leaves them higher up the ladder than the rest of us - because the consequences of getting Covid are worse for them even if they are no more likely to catch it.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:21 am

Tessa K wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:44 am
3.7 million people in England are classed as clinically extremely vulnerable to Covid
Those aren't the official figures, where are they from?

The original 1-9 cohorts estimated 1.2 million people as "CEV" in group 4 and 7.3 million people as "At Risk" in group 6 (UK figures rather than England).
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:33 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:21 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:44 am
3.7 million people in England are classed as clinically extremely vulnerable to Covid
Those aren't the official figures, where are they from?

The original 1-9 cohorts estimated 1.2 million people as "CEV" in group 4 and 7.3 million people as "At Risk" in group 6 (UK figures rather than England).
It is an official figure, from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ne2021/pdf

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:47 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:33 am
lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:21 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:44 am
3.7 million people in England are classed as clinically extremely vulnerable to Covid
Those aren't the official figures, where are they from?

The original 1-9 cohorts estimated 1.2 million people as "CEV" in group 4 and 7.3 million people as "At Risk" in group 6 (UK figures rather than England).
It is an official figure, from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ne2021/pdf
ONS wrote:At the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some members of the public were identified as being at high risk of severe illness from COVID-19. This list has been updated continually and the number identified as clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) remained stable at 2.2 million people until February 2021. In February 2021, a further 1.5 million people were identified as CEV following the COVID-19 population risk assessment. More information can be found in Guidance on shielding and protecting people who are CEV from COVID-19.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ble-people
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 14, 2021 12:09 pm

How odd that CEV is used differently for the vaccine 1-9 cohorts and for this.

My assumption is that there's a lot of double count between the 3.3 million over 80s in the UK and this 3.7 million shielders figure, otherwise the vaccine rollout by groups went wrong.

But what I really want to know is vaccination rates. How many of these vulnerable people have been unable to get vaccinated, or vaccination doesn't work, due to immune problems or whatever. Is it millions? Thousands? It's them who are left defenceless by the govt's measures, not the full 3.7 million figure - not withstanding the startling observation that clinically extremely vulnerable people are more likely to get ill.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:11 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:21 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:44 am
3.7 million people in England are classed as clinically extremely vulnerable to Covid
Those aren't the official figures, where are they from?

The original 1-9 cohorts estimated 1.2 million people as "CEV" in group 4 and 7.3 million people as "At Risk" in group 6 (UK figures rather than England).
Have you included the additional shielding group that were sent letters in Feb this year?


Can’t speak for all the coughing people, but definitely a combination of hay fever + asthma here. I like to assume that everyone else has had a PCR test and isn’t going to give me something else on top.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:19 pm

I got the figures from a gov.uk website but can't remember exactly where now.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Grumble » Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:27 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:11 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:21 am
Tessa K wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:44 am
3.7 million people in England are classed as clinically extremely vulnerable to Covid
Those aren't the official figures, where are they from?

The original 1-9 cohorts estimated 1.2 million people as "CEV" in group 4 and 7.3 million people as "At Risk" in group 6 (UK figures rather than England).
Have you included the additional shielding group that were sent letters in Feb this year?


Can’t speak for all the coughing people, but definitely a combination of hay fever + asthma here. I like to assume that everyone else has had a PCR test and isn’t going to give me something else on top.
I’m assuming if my symptoms stop with a piriteze pill then it’s hay fever and not covid.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:23 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:11 pm
Can’t speak for all the coughing people, but definitely a combination of hay fever + asthma here. I like to assume that everyone else has had a PCR test and isn’t going to give me something else on top.
Yes - I'm sure there's plenty of that but right now it seems that everywhere I go I'm hearing young kids and teenagers with croup-like coughs - barking like seals.

I guess it's the well known July croup season - that famously affects teenagers. At least that's probably what Comedy Carl Heneghan would say.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:39 pm

48,553 cases and 64 deaths on today's UK numbers.

Four days to go to the end of measures, but I suspect a lot of people have stopped anyway (and those who haven't will continue being careful from Monday).

I guess the idea is to hope that some sort of natural limit to the amount of contacts that anyone can have will cause daily cases to top out around 100-150,000 and deaths at around 150-200, and hope that people will accept that. I'm not convinced that they won't get away with it, either.

Of course, the government will have to hope that the hospitals don't get too badly overrun, but perhaps a bigger problem will be services getting blocked because of people self-isolating. But then maybe they'll just turn off the app and testing, and tell people to take it on the chin.

I wouldn't book a trip outside the UK for August, though. Countries whose vaccination programmes are less far advanced but are just about keeping the lid on cases won't want visitors from Plague Island.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:43 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:23 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:11 pm
Can’t speak for all the coughing people, but definitely a combination of hay fever + asthma here. I like to assume that everyone else has had a PCR test and isn’t going to give me something else on top.
Yes - I'm sure there's plenty of that but right now it seems that everywhere I go I'm hearing young kids and teenagers with croup-like coughs - barking like seals.

I guess it's the well known July croup season - that famously affects teenagers. At least that's probably what Comedy Carl Heneghan would say.
Anecdotally, I know two people currently with Covid who have full vaccinations.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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