Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Will the UK achieve unlockdown by the Summer Solstice?

Yes, easy peasy
1
2%
Yes, but only because the govt won't want to u-turn
18
41%
There or thereabouts, might be pushed back a couple of weeks
5
11%
No, the numbers won't allow it, and each stage will be delayed adding up to a couple more months of measures
9
20%
No, not a chance, the virus will have another serious wave and relockdown will be required
11
25%
 
Total votes: 44

OffTheRock
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:57 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:43 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:23 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:11 pm
Can’t speak for all the coughing people, but definitely a combination of hay fever + asthma here. I like to assume that everyone else has had a PCR test and isn’t going to give me something else on top.
Yes - I'm sure there's plenty of that but right now it seems that everywhere I go I'm hearing young kids and teenagers with croup-like coughs - barking like seals.

I guess it's the well known July croup season - that famously affects teenagers. At least that's probably what Comedy Carl Heneghan would say.
Anecdotally, I know two people currently with Covid who have full vaccinations.
<sticks fingers in ears>

None of the coughing people on my bus have covid, it’s all July croup/hayfever and 2 doses of Pfizer is 100% protective 4.5 months after your second dose. And stagecoach are absolutely telling the truth when they tell you that sitting less than 1m away from complete strangers for 45mins is ‘covid safe’ especially since I don’t think they are going to be enforcing masks from Monday.

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Gfamily
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:11 pm

Last week a friend of a friend thought it would be a nice idea to fly to Ibiza for the weekend. (Who even does that?)

Screwed up their forms for flying home and were refused boarding, so had to find a hotel room and buy a replacement ticket (as well as grovel to their work about missing a day at no notice whatsoever).

Got back on the Monday

Wednesday diagnosed with Covid.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:14 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:11 pm
Last week a friend of a friend thought it would be a nice idea to fly to Ibiza for the weekend. (Who even does that?)

Screwed up their forms for flying home and were refused boarding, so had to find a hotel room and buy a replacement ticket (as well as grovel to their work about missing a day at no notice whatsoever).

Got back on the Monday

Wednesday diagnosed with Covid.
Which means everyone else who had been on the plane with them will get pinged by Track 'n' Trace.
Something something hammer something something nail

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:19 pm

Lol, like they've got test and trace working properly.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by bob sterman » Fri Jul 16, 2021 6:11 am

Gfamily wrote:
Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:11 pm
Last week a friend of a friend thought it would be a nice idea to fly to Ibiza for the weekend. (Who even does that?)
Err...you know there was even a "reality" show called Ibiza Weekender???

"It's a thing" which I understand is a thing people say in contexts like this.

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Gfamily
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Gfamily » Fri Jul 16, 2021 11:30 am

Our local Covid Zoe estimates change over the last 3 weeks
Doubled and doubled and doubled again.
IMG_16072021_122848_(800_x_450_pixel).jpg
IMG_16072021_122848_(800_x_450_pixel).jpg (64.49 KiB) Viewed 557 times
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:44 am

molto tricky

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lpm
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by lpm » Sat Jul 17, 2021 8:07 am

Yes! We've still got it! They said our days of global power were long gone. But we can still be a threat to the world!
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:35 pm

It's a clever move, increasing the number of service users just before privatising the NHS. Should help bump the price up.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

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jimbob
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:36 pm

This time round, I know four separate groups of people who have been infected.

Two had both jabs, one had a single jab and one was a flatmate of my daughter, but did a 4 year course and got it during graduation, when they were apparently being careful.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Herainestold
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:05 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:36 pm
This time round, I know four separate groups of people who have been infected.

Two had both jabs, one had a single jab and one was a flatmate of my daughter, but did a 4 year course and got it during graduation, when they were apparently being careful.
The jabs are not quite the miracle we had been counting on. Still very good, but they cant end the pandemic on their own. We need to use the other tools in our toolbox.
Delta changes everything.

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jimbob
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by jimbob » Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:22 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:05 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:36 pm
This time round, I know four separate groups of people who have been infected.

Two had both jabs, one had a single jab and one was a flatmate of my daughter, but did a 4 year course and got it during graduation, when they were apparently being careful.
The jabs are not quite the miracle we had been counting on. Still very good, but they cant end the pandemic on their own. We need to use the other tools in our toolbox.
They are still good, BBC Inside Science had an interview with a vaccine developer and she was used to considering 50% effectiveness to be worthwhile
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Herainestold
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:44 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:22 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:05 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:36 pm
This time round, I know four separate groups of people who have been infected.

Two had both jabs, one had a single jab and one was a flatmate of my daughter, but did a 4 year course and got it during graduation, when they were apparently being careful.
The jabs are not quite the miracle we had been counting on. Still very good, but they cant end the pandemic on their own. We need to use the other tools in our toolbox.
They are still good, BBC Inside Science had an interview with a vaccine developer and she was used to considering 50% effectiveness to be worthwhile
Well yeah, and Pfizer is 64% against Delta. Transmission is a different story. The Israelis are saying the efficacy is down quite abit, without saying how much. We are fortunate to have them, but we are going to have to do more, much more to control this pandemic.
Delta changes everything.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:54 pm

Again. 64% effective against *any* infection, according to Israeli data - other studies have found better efficacy.

>90% against serious illness.

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shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:23 pm

molto tricky

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:11 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:54 pm
Again. 64% effective against *any* infection, according to Israeli data - other studies have found better efficacy.

>90% against serious illness.
Only 10% of previous levels of serious illness sounds great, but if you have 10x as many cases (Neil Ferguson was talking today about 200k/day by August) then your hospitals are every bit as f.cked. And arguably protecting the hospitals (as opposed to individuals) was the whole point of the lockdowns.

I would also guess that 10-20% of adults (varying by country) are never going to be vaccinated, with reasons ranging from medical ineligibility, anti-vaxx sentiment, general feelings of immortality especially among the young, and the Can't Be Arsed factor.
Something something hammer something something nail

Millennie Al
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:06 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:11 pm
I would also guess that 10-20% of adults (varying by country) are never going to be vaccinated, with reasons ranging from medical ineligibility, anti-vaxx sentiment, general feelings of immortality especially among the young, and the Can't Be Arsed factor.
Well, the current policy of opening up in the face of rising cases will ensure the anti-vaxxers and immortals will likely catch it and almost all will either die or become immune.

Maybe if Boris catches it again (rather unlikely) it will change the policy. Did he yet say "we'll return to lockdown over my dead body"?
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

egbert26
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by egbert26 » Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:37 am

f.cking brilliant:

https://twitter.com/luxmy_g/status/1416 ... 26276?s=20

On Saturday I went to my first social occasion since before the pandemic. Up to now, I've only been to the shops, medical appointments, the gym (during off-peak times) and to see a few family members in their house. The event was a wedding that had been originally planned for May of last year and ended up being arranged three times. It was in London, so a trip on the train and then two stops on the Tube was required.

I was horrified at how few people were bothering to wear masks, particularly on the Tube where social distancing is impossible. I genuinely did not expect to be in the minority when it came to mask vs. no mask. At the wedding we were all given masks and at the reception we were told we had to wear a mask at all times unless we were at our seats eating. There was no dancing allowed either. The disparity between the free-for-all on public transport and the strict rules at the wedding itself were very striking.

On the way home, at Stratford is was just like a standard Saturday night: scrums of people, crowds of lads hassling women, puke, piss, etc. You'd only spot signs that we are in the midst of a global pandemic if you spotted the 2m rule stickers on the floor or wondered why there were some weirdos wearing a mask.
It's what happens when they try to apply IATBMCTT with their willies...

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gosling
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by gosling » Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:32 am

Got the bus to the hospital and back this morning. Looked like the normal ratio of masked to unmasked people. Was on the tube last Sunday afternoon - it was full of pissed up, unmasked, young lads chanting football songs. Hoping that rush hour will be a little more civilized, but don't think my company is in any rush to send us back to the office.

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Tessa K
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:18 am

The bus to the gym this morning had about the usual ratio of masked/unmasked. I'll be wearing mine whenever I'm around people for as long as it takes.

Herainestold
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Herainestold » Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:32 pm

Tessa K wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:18 am
The bus to the gym this morning had about the usual ratio of masked/unmasked. I'll be wearing mine whenever I'm around people for as long as it takes.
As long as it takes = the foreseeable future. I haven't been to the gym for 16 months, nor down to the pub. And I bought a new supply of masks.
Delta changes everything.

nezumi
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by nezumi » Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:59 pm

Just popped out to get cat food, and was pleasantly surprised that the majority are still wearing masks and respecting social distance. Teesside, I am proud of you (for once)
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

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Tessa K
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by Tessa K » Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:16 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:32 pm
Tessa K wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:18 am
The bus to the gym this morning had about the usual ratio of masked/unmasked. I'll be wearing mine whenever I'm around people for as long as it takes.
As long as it takes = the foreseeable future. I haven't been to the gym for 16 months, nor down to the pub. And I bought a new supply of masks.
My gym is so quiet I feel confident in going. There were about six of us in there this morning and one of those was the instructor, and it's not a small space. Even if there is a small risk it's worth it for my mental elf.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:59 pm

Just went to Merry Hill (the big mall in the Midlands) and I’d say there was about 30% of people wearing masks.

The people in this part of the world have always been a bit special, but I expected more from them to be honest.

That said, the mall itself was very well ventilated and has plenty of space to stay apart.

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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown

Post by headshot » Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:14 pm

Zahawi has just announced that only fully vaccinated people will be allowed in nightclubs from the end of Sept...even though nightclubs opened to packed crowds last night. So 10 weeks for the virus to spread through the nightclub community (and their families and friends), then we'll make sure that people are safe.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... e7a316c4da

This isn't closing the barn door after the horse has bolted. This is getting a horse before you've thought about applying for planning permission to build a barn.

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