cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Herainestold
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:48 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:40 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:58 pm
I've never seen an excessively optimistic post on this forum.
Exhibit A...from a surprising source!!!
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:04 pm
It still looks like the exemplary measures being taken by Chinese authorities will be effective. Certainly not 100% effective but will prevent a major pandemic.
lol:

China managed to contain it quite well within its own boundaries, but when it slipped out to infect other countries, the vast majority were not up to the effort. It is still quite remarkble that a country as large and densely populated as China did so well. And continues to do well.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:45 pm

Actually it seems like things are considered to be going well enough here that as of Monday discos can open at 50% capacity (or 75% if outside).
molto tricky

Herainestold
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:26 pm

Good piece in the Graun lamenting UK's 'vaccine just' vs. Europe's 'vaccine plus' strategy.
Yet cases have remained high and mostly flat well into the autumn. Since 1 June, there have been almost 3m confirmed cases of Covid-19 in England. Rather than prompting concern, this seems to have instead resulted in a perception that England has transitioned to “living with the virus”. Each week in England there are still more than 500 deaths and between 150,000 and 200,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, too many of which will transition into long Covid. Yet these numbers are rarely discussed. Presumably they are considered a necessary price to pay for the majority to get back to living a normal life (of course, many of those who are clinically vulnerable, and their family members, do not feel able to enjoy this return to normality).
Both strategies require vaccinating as many people as possible. Earlier this year, much was made of our rapid start to the vaccination programme. Yet England is now falling behind on this. It had fully vaccinated 67% of its entire population by the beginning of October, far lower than countries such as Portugal (85%), Spain (79%), Denmark (75%) and Ireland (74%). Crucially, much of the rest of Europe began vaccinating teens early in the summer, ensuring a high proportion would be protected when schools reopened.
No, it’s not a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’. It still threatens us all


Now to the “plus” bit. Face coverings and vaccine passports remain widespread across western Europe. Anyone who has visited France over the summer will have seen the routine use of the TousAntiCovid app in bars and restaurants. Masks are required in indoor public spaces and public transport in France, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Spain and elsewhere. Yet in England these measures will only be implemented if the government moves to its “Plan B”. Many countries have also made major investments in ventilation and filtration, while some have made CO2 monitors compulsory in certain settings, such as hospitality venues. While England recently decided to fit schools with CO2 monitors, until recently it relied on simply advising people to open windows where possible. Schools across Europe have a range of protections in place to reduce cases in children, including masks, bubbles and distancing. In England these measures have been scrapped, although some schools and councils are now reintroducing them in the face of high case rates in school children.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rope-covid
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by wilsontown » Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:12 pm

The number of people in hospital has been falling, but this can change...

InHospital_08102021.png
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shpalman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:20 am

shpalman wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:45 pm
Actually it seems like things are considered to be going well enough here that as of Monday discos can open at 50% capacity (or 75% if outside).
Seems like one nearby place couldn't wait.

(It was easy to prove the place had been open and packed due to the large number of selfies on social media.)

I've never actually been in the Albert Club but it's hard to miss it because it's next to the main road and in the evening's it's lit up like the tricked-out cars in Fast n' Furious.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:20 am
shpalman wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:45 pm
Actually it seems like things are considered to be going well enough here that as of Monday discos can open at 50% capacity (or 75% if outside).
Seems like one nearby place couldn't wait.

(It was easy to prove the place had been open and packed due to the large number of selfies on social media.)

I've never actually been in the Albert Club but it's hard to miss it because it's next to the main road and in the evening's it's lit up like the tricked-out cars in Fast n' Furious.
here's what that looked like inside

The bouncers were at least checking Green Passes. But masks weren't being worn and of course social distancing wasn't being respected. There was also someone working there "in black" (ie cash in hand undeclared income) and the SIAE (Italian PRS) notes that they had paid to play "music to listen to" not "music to dance to".

Last night at the dance lesson we could apparently let couples switch but they had to wear masks; this is stupid considering that nothing will actually legally change until Monday and then in discos you'll have to wear a mask unless you're dancing.

It's just the sports federation or whatever making up rules as it goes along.
molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:52 pm

Swing'n'Milan basically looks as if there's no covid. 50% occupancy at a place like the Spirit di Milan is still more than usual show up for swing dancing.

We'll see in a couple of weeks if we've caused an outbreak.

Meanwhile back in the UK...
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molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by purplehaze » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:24 pm

Going back through this thread from the start of the pandemic, every case was potentially exponential.

Now?

Well it's everyday life in the UK now. Just a side line.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-cov ... 021-10-07/

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:42 pm

purplehaze wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:24 pm
Going back through this thread from the start of the pandemic, every case was potentially exponential.

Now?

Well it's everyday life in the UK now. Just a side line.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-cov ... 021-10-07/
We are well into the autumn surge, as predicted. Get ready for the Christmas wave.
When will the lockdown commence?
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by purplehaze » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:08 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:42 pm
purplehaze wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:24 pm
Going back through this thread from the start of the pandemic, every case was potentially exponential.

Now?

Well it's everyday life in the UK now. Just a side line.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-cov ... 021-10-07/
We are well into the autumn surge, as predicted. Get ready for the Christmas wave.
When will the lockdown commence?
Haven't you heard? PM Johnson, wannabe artist, is going to save Xmas.

Herainestold
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:20 pm

purplehaze wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:08 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:42 pm
purplehaze wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:24 pm
Going back through this thread from the start of the pandemic, every case was potentially exponential.

Now?

Well it's everyday life in the UK now. Just a side line.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-cov ... 021-10-07/
We are well into the autumn surge, as predicted. Get ready for the Christmas wave.
When will the lockdown commence?
Haven't you heard? PM Johnson, wannabe artist, is going to save Xmas.
Destroy it, you mean. If present infection trends continue he may not be PM at Christmas.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:39 pm

I mean he ruined last Christmas and kept his job. He'll only be ousted if someone else wants to take over, and why on earth would they right now?
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:58 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:39 pm
I mean he ruined last Christmas and kept his job. He'll only be ousted if someone else wants to take over, and why on earth would they right now?
Point.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:14 pm

No turkey this year, though, so it's not all bad - you don't have to suffer through a meat nobody likes or knows how to cook because of tradition.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:24 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:14 pm
No turkey this year, though, so it's not all bad - you don't have to suffer through a meat nobody likes or knows how to cook because of tradition.
?Goose is better anyway

John Burnd Murdoch on covid UK vs Europe




Scientists have urged the UK government to impose fresh coronavirus restrictions in England over winter, as high hospital admission and fatality rates outstrip the rest of western Europe.

The UK’s weekly death rate stands at 12 per million, three times the level of other major European nations, while hospitalisations have risen to eight Covid-related admissions a week per 100,000 people, six times the rate on the continent.

The decision to end compulsory mask-wearing and to pause plans for vaccine passports in England has made the British government an outlier for its management of the pandemic and could account for the worsening trends, according to scientific experts.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Martin_B » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:08 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:14 pm
No turkey this year, though, so it's not all bad - you don't have to suffer through a meat nobody likes or knows how to cook because of tradition.
My sister found the secret to really good turkey was slow cooking. Her oven broke down about 90 minutes into cooking the turkey. Her husband and father-in-law are good at fixing things so they waited until the oven had cooled down enough (another hour or so), pulled the oven out tinkered with it (another couple of hours) and finally got it working again. After a while my sister opened the oven the see how the turkey was doing and how long it would need, to find an almost perfectly cooked bird with plenty of still moist meat.

Alternatively, I've found turkey breasts to be an excellent alternative to chicken (often cheaper, too) as turkey tends to be very lean and with long muscle fibres so gives a good sensation in the mouth when you bite into it.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:25 am

Martin_B wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:08 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:14 pm
No turkey this year, though, so it's not all bad - you don't have to suffer through a meat nobody likes or knows how to cook because of tradition.
My sister found the secret to really good turkey was slow cooking.
The real secret is to deep fry it in a vat of oil (in the garden).

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:28 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:52 pm
Swing'n'Milan basically looks as if there's no covid. 50% occupancy at a place like the Spirit di Milan is still more than usual show up for swing dancing.

We'll see in a couple of weeks if we've caused an outbreak...
Lombardy reported zero deaths yesterday. A bit of a weekend effect, sure, but the average is only about 4 per day (in a region with 10 million inhabitants). London is having, what, about 10 deaths per day?
molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:28 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:28 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:52 pm
Swing'n'Milan basically looks as if there's no covid. 50% occupancy at a place like the Spirit di Milan is still more than usual show up for swing dancing.

We'll see in a couple of weeks if we've caused an outbreak...
Lombardy reported zero deaths yesterday. A bit of a weekend effect, sure, but the average is only about 4 per day (in a region with 10 million inhabitants). London is having, what, about 10 deaths per day?
Why the difference? More NPIs in Lombardy?
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:03 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:28 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:28 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:52 pm
Swing'n'Milan basically looks as if there's no covid. 50% occupancy at a place like the Spirit di Milan is still more than usual show up for swing dancing.

We'll see in a couple of weeks if we've caused an outbreak...
Lombardy reported zero deaths yesterday. A bit of a weekend effect, sure, but the average is only about 4 per day (in a region with 10 million inhabitants). London is having, what, about 10 deaths per day?
Why the difference? More NPIs in Lombardy?
In Italy in general there are masks in shops and on transport, and of course a general Green Pass requirement.
molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:10 pm

John Burn-Murdoch thread on why UK cases and deaths are so much higher than other parts of Europe.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 39176?s=20

tl;dr much more indoor mixing in the UK, and the UK's speedier vaccination programme means that immunity is waning sooner.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:41 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:10 pm
John Burn-Murdoch thread on why UK cases and deaths are so much higher than other parts of Europe.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 39176?s=20

tl;dr much more indoor mixing in the UK, and the UK's speedier vaccination programme means that immunity is waning sooner.
As an AstraZeneca recipient this offers me no comfort - but it could also be partly due to the vaccine mix used for different age groups (as John Burn-Murdoch also suggests).

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:19 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:41 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:10 pm
John Burn-Murdoch thread on why UK cases and deaths are so much higher than other parts of Europe.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 39176?s=20

tl;dr much more indoor mixing in the UK, and the UK's speedier vaccination programme means that immunity is waning sooner.
As an AstraZeneca recipient this offers me no comfort - but it could also be partly due to the vaccine mix used for different age groups (as John Burn-Murdoch also suggests).
This Burn-Murdoch thing is surely 100% wrong.

Looking down at the entire population there's a huge variation in types and timing. And it's applied to vastly different ages and DNA types.

It's basically flat as a result. There's no curves or slopes in any VE chart.

And the case load is very heavily skewed to unvaccinated children, plus young people with recent doses, where waning is irrelevant.

I don't think the question "UK cases and deaths are so much higher than other parts of Europe" needs any other answer apart from we unlocked fully at 50,000 and we plateaued pretty much there (apart from the weird drop to 30,000 and minor ups and downs since).
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:18 pm

From the Burn Murdoch thread, there are three policies we need to implement.

lockdown to stop transmission. It is not enough to proscribe large events we have let it go too far. The best way to stop social mixing is lockdown.
Increased booster program especially for the elderly. Vaccines are wearing out.
Mask mandate, indoor and out door, preferably double masking like in India.

If we lock down now, we might be able to save Christmas.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:54 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:18 pm
From the Burn Murdoch thread, there are three policies we need to implement.

lockdown to stop transmission. It is not enough to proscribe large events we have let it go too far. The best way to stop social mixing is lockdown.
Why?

Death rates are pretty stable. Don't think we've moved out of the 100 to 150 per day range for months now. If we accepted these deaths in September, why suddenly stop in November?
Increased booster program especially for the elderly. Vaccines are wearing out.
Yes, of courses vaccines wane, but we already are underway with the booster program.
Mask mandate, indoor and out door, preferably double masking like in India.
Restricting unvaxxed - as a way to encourage vax rates - would have more impact.
If we lock down now, we might be able to save Christmas.
Who gives a sh.t about Christmas. When did we all get obsessed with a single event. Supply chains can fail most of the year, but not Christmas, that would be awful.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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