cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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OffTheRock
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:57 pm

Obvious spike after Boardmasters festival here.

So far there are about 5k confirmed cases who had told T&T they were there. Depending on which figures you look at this is probably about 7-10% of the people who attended. No idea if we'll ever find out how many people those people transmitted it to although anecdotally I know of a few cases. I'd imagine Reading and Leeds this coming weekend may well have a similar affect.

With the benefit of hindsight a vaccine passport may have been a good idea. Or at the very least, not allowing people to log a negative result on an unsupervised LFT in order to get an e-mail that will gain you entry. I'm not really sure WTF they expected to happen really.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Chris Preston » Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:11 am

In the West Island the pathway out of lockdown has been declared. It is when 80% of adults have been fully vaccinated. The large delta outbreak in NSW (75 deaths and climbing) has some of the Premiers starting to demur, but Scottyfrommarketing has an election coming up early next year and is going to run flat out on how he personally saved the country, lockdown enthusiasts be damned.

Locally, our government is going to require masks indoors for at least the rest of 2021.
Here grows much rhubarb.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:17 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:11 am
In the West Island the pathway out of lockdown has been declared. It is when 80% of adults have been fully vaccinated. The large delta outbreak in NSW (75 deaths and climbing) has some of the Premiers starting to demur, but Scottyfrommarketing has an election coming up early next year and is going to run flat out on how he personally saved the country, lockdown enthusiasts be damned.

Locally, our government is going to require masks indoors for at least the rest of 2021.
It looks like Oz is undergoing a tough patch right now, but the rest of the planet admires what you have achieved so far and wishes you well in continuing to defeat this virus. 80% adults vaxed is not enough to stop Delta. You likely need 95+% of the total population vaxxed. Should probably wait until vaccines for children are developed/approved. By that time the adult population will likely need boosters, so it could be a long haul.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by basementer » Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:01 pm

Chris Preston wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:11 am
In the West Island the pathway out of lockdown has been declared. It is when 80% of adults have been fully vaccinated. The large delta outbreak in NSW (75 deaths and climbing) has some of the Premiers starting to demur, but Scottyfrommarketing has an election coming up early next year and is going to run flat out on how he personally saved the country, lockdown enthusiasts be damned.

Locally, our government is going to require masks indoors for at least the rest of 2021.
I think that I'll probably be stuck in full lockdown in Wellington for at least another fortnight, which is a considerable hassle because I'm already paying rent on the house that I was planning on moving into. With no community cases in the current outbreak in the South Island, I suspect they will probably drop back to level 3 this weekend.
Money is just a substitute for luck anyway. - Tom Siddell

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:49 am

A colleague went to a West End show last night. Still feels weird to see images like this.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by basementer » Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:33 am

basementer wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:01 pm
Chris Preston wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:11 am
In the West Island the pathway out of lockdown has been declared. It is when 80% of adults have been fully vaccinated. The large delta outbreak in NSW (75 deaths and climbing) has some of the Premiers starting to demur, but Scottyfrommarketing has an election coming up early next year and is going to run flat out on how he personally saved the country, lockdown enthusiasts be damned.

Locally, our government is going to require masks indoors for at least the rest of 2021.
I think that I'll probably be stuck in full lockdown in Wellington for at least another fortnight, which is a considerable hassle because I'm already paying rent on the house that I was planning on moving into. With no community cases in the current outbreak in the South Island, I suspect they will probably drop back to level 3 this weekend.
Per today's announcement, I got both wrong. South Island goes to level 3 a couple of days later than I expected, midnight Tuesday, but so too does the whole of the lower North Island. I think the latter is a bad idea when known new cases per day are still increasing.
Money is just a substitute for luck anyway. - Tom Siddell

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shpalman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:52 am

molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:20 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:55 pm
shpalman wrote:
Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:28 pm
I notice now that North Kesteven, the local authority to the south of Lincoln where nobody has died of covid since early June, has spiked a non-zero case rate in the 85-89 age group.
With a total population of about 116,000 and consequently perhaps around 2000 or fewer in the 85-89 age group - their current case rate in that age group in North Kesteven (137.8 per 100,000) probably means about 3 cases.

In fact, given their rate in that age group goes up in multiples of 45.9 it is exactly 3 cases currently. August 4th they peaked at 275.6 per 100,000 - i.e. 6 cases.
Well, someone died (on the 26th).
molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu Sep 09, 2021 5:14 pm

molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:37 pm

molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 26, 2021 5:29 pm

People were having sex on the streets, apparently.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Sciolus » Sat Oct 02, 2021 1:47 pm

I'm running out of disposable masks, so I went into the big Boots in town to get some more. Nope, they only have children's masks these days.

People would rather die (and kill other people) than wear a mask.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Sun Oct 03, 2021 6:43 am

I went to see a pub theatre show yesterday that a friend was in.

After the show, at 4.30pm, We had to walk through the pub to get out (the Old Joint Stock in Birmingham) and it was completely full. Queues five-deep at the bar, everyone shouting to talk to one-another, and not a single mask in sight.

It felt like 2019.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:11 am

So what?

We've unlockeddowned. Everything is open.

Pub theatre shows can restart and hospitality workers can find jobs.

And yet with all this unlockdownism case rates are stable, superspreader events don't happen and exponential waves never build.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:20 am

The iSage doom squad and Guardian worriers are humiliating themselves. They're as bad as our Idiot Doom Guy - always predicting disaster just around the corner, then when it doesn't happen shifting the apocalypse out by a couple more months.

Here's the latest silliness. It's embarrassing:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -stay-high

I particularly enjoy the idiot who complains vaccination rates have fallen. "Unfortunately, our vaccination programme has stalled and rates are regularly dropping below 100,000 doses a day." Does he not know we're now four weeks past the 2nd dose due date for every adult? We're scraping up some 1st doses from the reluctant and doing some 2nd doses for stragglers, but there's no-one else to reach.

It's like shouting out that the number of leaves falling from trees has stalled and rates are regularly dropping below a dozen leaves falling a day, weeks after autumn has ended.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:48 am

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:11 am
superspreader events don't happen
How do you know?

We’re at >30,000 cases per day. The pub I was at last night might have been a superspreader event. Who’s tracking this anymore? With people basically circulating at pre-pandemic levels how would they know at which part of their night out they caught COVID?

I understand that we aren’t seeing the spikes in hospitalisation and deaths - but we’re still running pretty darned hot.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:20 am

We know because case numbers are so stable. Inconsequential oscillation around the 35,000 mark. We're no longer seeing hotspots where 100 people get infected at a single nightclub in Lincoln.

Maybe the way to look at vaccine effectiveness is to imagine unvaxxed humans needing 2 metres of social distancing but vaxxed only 40 cm.

Or a group of 6 unvaxxed is equivalent to 24 vaxxed.

You didn't see a crowded pub with queues of unvaccinated people at the bar. Imagine the scene with most of the vaccinated people vanishing, leaving a quiet pub with a few unvaccinated people and a few vaccinated.

We all need to update our intuitions.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:29 am

There are some people who seem very certain about everything (you know who you are!).

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:06 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:20 am
We know because case numbers are so stable. Inconsequential oscillation around the 35,000 mark. We're no longer seeing hotspots where 100 people get infected at a single nightclub in Lincoln.
How many people got infected in Kettering last week to push their case rate up to a spike of 1200 among the under-60's?
lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:20 am
Maybe the way to look at vaccine effectiveness is to imagine unvaxxed humans needing 2 metres of social distancing but vaxxed only 40 cm.

Or a group of 6 unvaxxed is equivalent to 24 vaxxed.

You didn't see a crowded pub with queues of unvaccinated people at the bar. Imagine the scene with most of the vaccinated people vanishing, leaving a quiet pub with a few unvaccinated people and a few vaccinated.

We all need to update our intuitions.
Well, it's the unvaccinated people who will vanish, one way or another. I read somewhere that covid will get to more or less everybody within the next two years anyway.*

I do agree to some extent though that hospitalizations and deaths are going down overall in the UK despite the high and unpredictable case rate. Italy is still waiting to decide whether to do the last bits of unlocking - with the recent decisions to increase indoor event capacity there's not much left to unlock apart from discos and dance halls (which is of course the bit I'm waiting for) - but I think the idea was just to make sure that things don't start blowing up in October like they did last year.

But since a zero-covid strategy stopped being an option a long time ago, at some point when everyone's had a chance to get the vaccine you might as well reopen everything which you're ever going to be able to reopen.

(The data from my bit of Italy suggest that vaccination reduces your chance of getting covid by a factor of about five but if you get it anyway the outcomes are similar; it's noted that the people having severe problems with covid in the vaccinated group are about 30 years older than the ones in the unvaccinated group, so it still doesn't really help answer the "for a given age band of the population what would their vaccinated CFR be as compared to their unvaccinated CFR"? Did we ever work that out somewhere? I remember a graph which had someone's "risk of catching and then dying".)
molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:05 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:06 pm
I do agree to some extent though that hospitalizations and deaths are going down overall in the UK despite the high and unpredictable case rate. Italy is still waiting to decide whether to do the last bits of unlocking - with the recent decisions to increase indoor event capacity there's not much left to unlock apart from discos and dance halls (which is of course the bit I'm waiting for) - but I think the idea was just to make sure that things don't start blowing up in October like they did last year.
I was talking to some Italian academics last week and their universities are still doing remote teaching.

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shpalman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:37 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:05 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:06 pm
I do agree to some extent though that hospitalizations and deaths are going down overall in the UK despite the high and unpredictable case rate. Italy is still waiting to decide whether to do the last bits of unlocking - with the recent decisions to increase indoor event capacity there's not much left to unlock apart from discos and dance halls (which is of course the bit I'm waiting for) - but I think the idea was just to make sure that things don't start blowing up in October like they did last year.
I was talking to some Italian academics last week and their universities are still doing remote teaching.
I think mine is still splitting some of the bigger courses into online sessions and half the students in presence at a time but I'm not sure; the 50% capacity limit is now a guideline not a rule. Maybe lessons before 10:15 are staying online to avoid students having to move around Milan during morning rush hour.
molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:50 pm

The Technical-Scientific Committee who advise the government here in Italy says discos can open... at 35% capacity.

(huffpo.it link)

Or 50% if outside IT'S OCTOBER FFS.

With registration and Green Pass and a decent airconditioning system.

So we'll see if the government decides to approve this on Thursday along with the new rules regarding increasing capacity in theatres and cinemas.
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bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:27 pm

What I'd really like to see is a time series analysis looking for correspondence between the 7-day case rate change data - and the frequency of excessively optimistic vs pessimistic posts to this forum...
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:58 pm

I've never seen an excessively optimistic post on this forum.

Idiot Doom Guy shifted the window right over to the pessimistic extreme.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:40 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:58 pm
I've never seen an excessively optimistic post on this forum.
Exhibit A...from a surprising source!!!
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:04 pm
It still looks like the exemplary measures being taken by Chinese authorities will be effective. Certainly not 100% effective but will prevent a major pandemic.

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