cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

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shpalman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu May 13, 2021 12:14 pm

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun May 16, 2021 5:53 pm

However, it does seem that the celebrations haven't had any noticeable effect on case rates in Milan (where the case rate is decreasing in line with both national and regional averaged) so it wasn't necessary for me to get so pissed off with the shouty mob. At least, not for that reason.

It still doesn't seem to be clear to anyone what "you can do contact sport outside" means for restarting dance classes though.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Sun May 16, 2021 10:23 pm

Releasing a statement on Sunday evening urging a ‘heavy dose of caution’ about unlocking while ploughing ahead with unchanged plans to unlock is madness, right?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Sun May 16, 2021 10:35 pm

Not by UK standards, no. We've done far madder.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Sun May 16, 2021 11:40 pm

Objectively speaking, rather than relatively speaking. Obviously it’s completely normal here now, which is why nobody seems to be querying how mad it is.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon May 17, 2021 5:34 pm

Italy is shifting the curfew from 10pm to 11pm, starting tomorrow night, with a plan to shift it to midnight on the 7th of June and get rid of it completely on the 21st of June.

We'll be able to sit in a restaurant, rather than outside it, from the 1st of June.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue May 18, 2021 11:07 am

Covid experts on England’s relaxed rules
“While there are concerns over variants, I wouldn’t... visit a care home.” Michie added. “because, I mean, f.ck that sh.t, I'm off to the pub.”
Part of this quote may have been paraphrased.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue May 18, 2021 11:28 am

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by wilsontown » Tue May 18, 2021 12:19 pm

Best get cracking then.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed May 19, 2021 5:57 pm

Tonight the curfew in Italy moves to 11pm (instead of 10pm).

Completely coincidentally it's the Coppa Italia final tonight.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by nezumi » Wed May 19, 2021 7:18 pm

On reflection, despite having had the two requisite jabs of the vaccine, given the variants and the fact people are going mad with a bit of freedom, I'm going to stay locked down til approximately July.
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Wed May 19, 2021 9:56 pm

I might go and try some reckless things while we’re still < 10/100k and have no known cases of Indian variant. Nothing too reckless, just meeting up with some other doubly vaccinated people, getting a hair cut, going out for a meal (outside).

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed May 19, 2021 10:30 pm

nezumi wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 7:18 pm
On reflection, despite having had the two requisite jabs of the vaccine, given the variants and the fact people are going mad with a bit of freedom, I'm going to stay locked down til approximately July.

Me too, but September is my date for re-evaluation.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by wilsontown » Thu May 20, 2021 7:51 am

I'm going to lock myself in a lead-lined casket in my basement until at least 2024.
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Thu May 20, 2021 9:05 am

I'm never going out again. I'm not even opening my front door to anyone. I'm ordering food from Ocado and asking the delivery driver to yeet everything through the upstairs window where I've set up a bath of sanitiser. The food will stay in the sanitiser for three days before being quarantined into a refrigeration unit.

Because it's so dangerous to go up stairs, I have cut a hole in the living room ceiling and set up a fairground grabber in the bedroom to deliver items to me below.

Showering is too dangerous, so I will wet sponge myself in the kitchen, where I have thrown away all sharp implements and unplugged all of my white goods. I've sold my car (too dangerous), stepladders (too dangerous), all alcohol is banished (too dangerous), and I no longer exercise (too dangerous) or eat solid foods (too dangerous).

I'm fully vaccinated and evidence shows that the danger of infection, serious illness and transmission are so small as to be almost impossible - even against new variants - but you can't be too careful.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu May 20, 2021 9:54 am

Given that just about everyone in my workplace had their first dose around the same time as I did, but for some reason had their second doses scheduled a week or two after mine, they might be in that window in which the efficacy of the first dose is wearing off a bit.

So I'll keep wearing my mask, to be considerate of this and also to avoid the nyah-I've-had-my-second-dose-and-you-haven't :P effect.

It's doing my head in, how sh.t people are at assessing risks.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 20, 2021 5:04 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 7:51 am
I'm going to lock myself in a lead-lined casket in my basement until at least 2024.
Christakis had an excellent podcast a while back where he predicted the end of the pandemic in 2024. So your plan makes sense.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 20, 2021 5:08 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 9:54 am

It's doing my head in, how sh.t people are at assessing risks.
Well its true especially comparing two small but dis-similar risks. The other thing people are really bad at is understanding exponential growth and then integrating that with risk. That is the problem we are facing with new variants.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm

Given the general fuckedness of my lungs when it comes to infections, I’m quite happy with being a bit more cautious than most for a bit. If nothing else, I’m tempted to keep my mask on the bus. The lack of any respiratory infection for a year has done quite a lot of good for my ability to breathe all year without needing Prednisolone.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu May 20, 2021 8:41 pm

In July and August we might be allowed to be outside without masks on here.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Thu May 20, 2021 8:47 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 5:08 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 9:54 am

It's doing my head in, how sh.t people are at assessing risks.
Well its true especially comparing two small but dis-similar risks. The other thing people are really bad at is understanding exponential growth and then integrating that with risk. That is the problem we are facing with new variants.
I think it's with comparing a tiny but certain risk with a larger but uncertain risk (ie you need to multiply that small probability with another small probability).

Or with the idea of agency/control in risk perception like why people feel safer driving the car themselves compared to riding in a plane.

And of course the effects of prescience, ie not being able to put rare events you hear about on the news in the correct context of a huge population.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Thu May 20, 2021 9:30 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 8:41 pm
In July and August we might be allowed to be outside without masks on here.
Whereas here the no masks in school from 17th May seems to have extended to no masks for school kids on public buses. Mostly because the kids have figured out that if you say you didn’t realise you still needed them and you’ve left it at home, then the bus drivers let you on anyway.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Thu May 20, 2021 9:55 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm
Given the general fuckedness of my lungs when it comes to infections, I’m quite happy with being a bit more cautious than most for a bit. If nothing else, I’m tempted to keep my mask on the bus. The lack of any respiratory infection for a year has done quite a lot of good for my ability to breathe all year without needing Prednisolone.
I'm kind of kicking myself for not wearing a mask on public transport for years. Most coughs and colds I've caught in my life have probably come circling in via schools and kids. But almost certainly some came from crowded places (particularly the London Underground). Maybe I could have avoid a handful.

And if going on a plane why not try to cut a bit of risk of being ill on holiday?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri May 21, 2021 12:09 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 5:34 pm
Italy is shifting the curfew from 10pm to 11pm, starting tomorrow night, with a plan to shift it to midnight on the 7th of June and get rid of it completely on the 21st of June...
Except that people who live on Via Garibaldi in Milan want to maintain the 10pm curfew because they don't like noise but also don't want to move out and leave the city accessible to younger people.

Still no news about dance halls and discos, but it occurs to me that one of the smaller places I go to dance in Milan is on a road named after Edward Jenner so if we ever get to go back there thanks to being vaccinated, that will amuse me.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun May 23, 2021 5:50 pm

la Scala's reopening is postponed by a positive case in the cast

We're not really ready for "reopening but safely".

Schools in a small town somewhere in Lombardy (didn't catch where, if you're reading this I didn't find out within the edit window) will stay closed because of an anomalous spike in cases.
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