cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

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shpalman
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cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:28 am

the unlockdown has already claimed a victim

There will now be an urgent recall of this batch of pubs and this bit of road while the regulator announces that there's no link within a few days.
molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:52 pm

See if anyone can spot the problem in this photo...from The Guardian:

Image

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Trinucleus
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:21 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:28 am
the unlockdown has already claimed a victim

There will now be an urgent recall of this batch of pubs and this bit of road while the regulator announces that there's no link within a few days.
Probably a high incidence of clots

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bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:46 pm

headshot wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:52 pm
See if anyone can spot the problem in this photo...from The Guardian:
Only one glove!!! :D

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:46 pm
headshot wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:52 pm
See if anyone can spot the problem in this photo...from The Guardian:
Only one glove!!! :D
I was wondering about that, but quite a few barbers wear rubber gloves to prevent interdigital pilonidal sinus - so it might be for that rather than Covid. But even then, one glove makes no sense.

(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pm

Get ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.

Enjoy your spring.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pm
Get ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.

Enjoy your spring.
Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by discovolante » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pm
Get ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.

Enjoy your spring.
Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities
Well, depends on things like long covid too.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:58 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pm
Get ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.

Enjoy your spring.
Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities
Over half the population is still not vaccinated,so all those people are vulnerable. New variants are hitting younger people , the unvaccinated, harder.
It looks like it could be an all new pandemic hitting a new demographic, and could be bad. Likely not as bad as the first waves, but still severe and putting significant strain on the NHS.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:09 pm

discovolante wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pm
Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pm
Get ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.

Enjoy your spring.
Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities
Well, depends on things like long covid too.
Not really. The lockdowns make us poorer, and we know being poorer is bad for public health... Our future healthcare is going to need economic prosperity so we can't carry on limiting activities for a mostly non-fatal illness. At some point all those morons with "lockdown is worse for health than the disease" will finally be right.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by discovolante » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:20 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:09 pm
discovolante wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pm
Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm


Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities
Well, depends on things like long covid too.
Not really. The lockdowns make us poorer, and we know being poorer is bad for public health... Our future healthcare is going to need economic prosperity so we can't carry on limiting activities for a mostly non-fatal illness. At some point all those morons with "lockdown is worse for health than the disease" will finally be right.
I'm not really arguing against lifting restrictions sensibly. I'm pretty desperate to get out and about myself. I'm not going to try and hazard a guess at the best way to do it or when in light of the vaccine programme, but if we already have 1 million people reporting symptoms of long covid then it's not something that should be ignored, and so far it has been.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:30 pm

By the next unlockdown date about 30 million will be unfirstdosed in the UK. Mostly under 40.

If 10% of these get covid in a new wave that's 3 million cases.

Long Covid hits about 10% of this age group. So 300,000.

Realistically the vaccines should outpace the wave. There's going to be Long Covid cases for years to come, but I can't see how it will be worse than the diseases of unemployment and poverty.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:35 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:09 pm
discovolante wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pm
Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm


Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities
Well, depends on things like long covid too.
Not really. The lockdowns make us poorer, and we know being poorer is bad for public health... Our future healthcare is going to need economic prosperity so we can't carry on limiting activities for a mostly non-fatal illness. At some point all those morons with "lockdown is worse for health than the disease" will finally be right.
With lockdowns it isn't the economy vs health but short term vs long term. The vaccine program has been exemplary, but we can't throw that away because we want to go down to the pub or to the match. Most of the drop in cases has been due to lockdown not vaccination. We need to keep up the pace on vaccinations but stay locked down a little longer. Once we get cases down to zero and 90% of the pop vaxed, then we can open up and the economy will boom. We will be so much better than other countries that didnt follow that path. Look for example how Australia and China are doing right now. that could be us, if we play our cards right.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:25 am

Sky News discovers positive skew!
"One third of local authorities reported a higher than average infection rate in the most recent week for which data is available."
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-the ... obal-en-GB

In other news - half of local authorities reported an infection rate higher than the median.

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bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:20 am

So apparently a group of 20 "leading scientists" have just written an open letter to the PM demanding the end of social distancing and mask requirements.

It isn't too hard to guess who some of these "leading scientists" are. :roll:

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bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:52 am

Just checked - all the usual suspects are there - Heneghan, Gupta, Sikora, Dingwall...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/an- ... nd-in-june

The letter includes the justification...
For most vaccinated and other low-risk people, Covid-19 is now a mild endemic infection...
This echos Heneghan's classic August 2020 claim...
Right now [COVID-19] is of low impact, a weak disease,
Except it's a bit more specific - now it's not mild for everyone, only mild for the people for whom it is mild.

I thought we were going to be putting this all behind us fairly soon - but now Heneghan thinks we are, I'm starting to doubt it!

And the authors have suddently become experts in host-pathogen co-evolution...
This level of [vaccine] protection against serious illness seems not to be significantly affected by any of the variants that have been observed, because of the breadth of T-cell responses. There are sound evolutionary reasons why this is unlikely to change in the near future with new variants.
Huh??? Sound evolutionary reasons to believe that when you impose a selection pressure on a pathogen (e.g. with vaccine induced immunity) - versions of the pathogen that evade that vaccine response are not favoured????

Remember back in May/June 2020 they were banging on about how cross-reactive T-cell immunity from common colds was going to save us all from SARS-CoV-2???

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:12 pm

thought we were going to be putting this all behind us fairly soon - but now Heneghan thinks we are, I'm starting to doubt it!
Heneghan is a reliable counter indicator. If he says the worst is over, buckle down for the next wave. 50% of the population remains unvaccinated,
at the same time as new more virulent variants that target the young are emerging. Now is not the time to unlock.

I will continue to double mask, avoid people, and look forward to a pub visit in 2022. Maybe.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by individualmember » Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:22 pm

I’m just reading this
The study is based on data from the national Covid Infection Survey, which is run by the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics.

Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Oxford and chief investigator on the survey, told The Telegraph that Britain had “moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation”.
(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )

And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:56 pm

individualmember wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:22 pm
I’m just reading this
The study is based on data from the national Covid Infection Survey, which is run by the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics.

Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Oxford and chief investigator on the survey, told The Telegraph that Britain had “moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation”.
(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )

And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
Depends upon the context. In this case I assume that she means: endemic is present in a country at about a constant level, pandemic is rapidly spreading.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:04 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:56 pm
individualmember wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:22 pm
I’m just reading this
The study is based on data from the national Covid Infection Survey, which is run by the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics.

Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Oxford and chief investigator on the survey, told The Telegraph that Britain had “moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation”.
(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )

And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
Depends upon the context. In this case I assume that she means: endemic is present in a country at about a constant level, pandemic is rapidly spreading.
Isn't epidemic 'in this country' vs 'it's in lots of countries'? Endemic would be be something like chicken pox i.e. something that's commonly circulating and regularly infecting people.

Difficult to see how it could be endemic here without us looking like India or Brazil.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:59 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:04 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:56 pm
individualmember wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:22 pm
I’m just reading this


(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )

And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
Depends upon the context. In this case I assume that she means: endemic is present in a country at about a constant level, pandemic is rapidly spreading.
Isn't epidemic 'in this country' vs 'it's in lots of countries'? Endemic would be be something like chicken pox i.e. something that's commonly circulating and regularly infecting people.

Difficult to see how it could be endemic here without us looking like India or Brazil.
It is endemic here. Its circulating and infecting people. Around 2000 new cases per day. And 50% of the population is unvaccinated. What is happening in Brazil and India is epidemic. Well pandemic actually because it is happening in multiple countries. But you knew that.
We are going to see at least two more waves. There will be the unlockdown wave, as restrictions are eased. In the autumn there will be another seasonal wave. By then there should be enough fully vaccinated people that the death toll will be much less. Vaccination doesn't stop transmission it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either. So there will be plenty more cases, hospitalizations, but not as much death. Keep your mask on.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:48 am

I used that google to find these:
Sporadic refers to a disease that occurs infrequently and irregularly.

Endemic refers to the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area.

Hyperendemic refers to persistent, high levels of disease occurrence.

Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area.

Outbreak carries the same definition of epidemic, but is often used for a more limited geographic area. Cluster refers to an aggregation of cases grouped in place and time that are suspected to be greater than the number expected, even though the expected number may not be known.

Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Boustrophedon » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:05 am

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:59 pm
Vaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.
*Citation needed.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Gfamily » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:42 am

Boustrophedon wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:05 am
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:59 pm
Vaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.
*Citation needed.
Today's news reports that a single Pfizer or AZ dose seems to reduce transmission by 40-50% where part-vaccinated people get an infection.

So if it reduces the chances of getting it and reduces the chance of spreading it, it should really help.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:07 am

The UK now has about 67% of the population with some sort of immunity - vaccine or previous illness. Guessing that the transmission reduction is only two-thirds, not full transmission prevention, would give an effective 44% immunity level.

44% immunity requires lockdown measures equivalent to an R=1.8 level. Which is fairly easy, current lockdown measures are probably enough to be around this.

Won't be long till the UK reaches 75% vaccinated/previous, which at two-thirds translates to needing lockdown at the R=2.0 level.

And ultimately the final destination by August is about 85% of the population with immunity - 95% of all adults vaccinated, something like 33% of children with previous illness or a vaccine. Again, assuming it only cuts out two-thirds of transmission, an R=2.25 lockdown type level is sufficient to hold the disease under control. I reckon the 17 May unlockdowning probably takes us to the R=2.25 area.

Problem is, full reopening with no face masks, distancing etc leads to the virus's natural R=4 sort of level. Which means resurgencence following the 21 June unlocking. Ways to deal with it:

- retain measures, e.g. mask requirements, no large indoor crowds
- vaccinate children to the 95% level
- or easier if the two-thirds guess for transmission reduction is too pessimistic
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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