cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 12, 2021 8:00 am

brace for at least one to two million new cases of coronavirus in the coming weeks
the moment for people to rely on their own judgment
That would be the judgment of people who voted for Boris Johnson as prime minister that you're relying on.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:25 am

To be fair - many of the government's recent policies have changed the effective reproductive number (R) substantially!! And July 19th will give it an even bigger boost.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Aug 02, 2021 7:04 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:25 am
To be fair - many of the government's recent policies have changed the effective reproductive number (R) substantially!! And July 19th will give it an even bigger boost.
In the other direction, obviously.

Although things certainly aren't as bad as some of us were expecting them to be.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Aug 02, 2021 7:05 pm

molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:37 pm

molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:41 pm

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:28 pm

I notice now that North Kesteven, the local authority to the south of Lincoln where nobody has died of covid since early June, has spiked a non-zero case rate in the 85-89 age group.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:55 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:28 pm
I notice now that North Kesteven, the local authority to the south of Lincoln where nobody has died of covid since early June, has spiked a non-zero case rate in the 85-89 age group.
With a total population of about 116,000 and consequently perhaps around 2000 or fewer in the 85-89 age group - their current case rate in that age group in North Kesteven (137.8 per 100,000) probably means about 3 cases.

In fact, given their rate in that age group goes up in multiples of 45.9 it is exactly 3 cases currently. August 4th they peaked at 275.6 per 100,000 - i.e. 6 cases.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:57 pm

molto tricky

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by nezumi » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:38 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:57 pm
Hull is the hottest spot now anyway.
I literally never thought I'd ever see that sentence.
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Trinucleus » Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:01 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:57 pm
Hull is the hottest spot now anyway.
No danger of it spreading then

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by nezumi » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:29 am

Anecdote alert:

My brother-in-law has Covid, silly effer went to London. He is double jabbed but he is bad as a dog in bed with it. Just to think how bad it's hit him double-jabbed - if he'd caught it before getting the vaccine he might have actually died. My sister-in-law (my husbands sister and her husband btw) isn't going to isolate because from tomorrow she apparently doesn't have to! This comes second hand from my mother-in-law and we rarely speak to SIL and BIL so no chance to change minds there. They're following what the law says, not what common sense says!

You'd think they'd realise that, if it's hitting a fit, healthy, double-jabbed man in the prime of his life* this hard, what about others who aren't as fit and healthy - jabbed or not?!

Not that SIL has ever had an ounce of common sense...

*He's about 53 IIRC
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:49 am

Of course since Lincoln just had the country’s worst case rate, because of outbreaks associated with the pub/club scene, all my nieces and nephews and their significant others just had covid to varying degrees. Mostly fine, most of them were at least single-jabbed, because they're not that stupid.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Sun Aug 15, 2021 2:52 pm

nezumi wrote:
Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:29 am
Anecdote alert:

My brother-in-law has Covid, silly effer went to London. He is double jabbed but he is bad as a dog in bed with it. Just to think how bad it's hit him double-jabbed - if he'd caught it before getting the vaccine he might have actually died. My sister-in-law (my husbands sister and her husband btw) isn't going to isolate because from tomorrow she apparently doesn't have to! This comes second hand from my mother-in-law and we rarely speak to SIL and BIL so no chance to change minds there. They're following what the law says, not what common sense says!

You'd think they'd realise that, if it's hitting a fit, healthy, double-jabbed man in the prime of his life* this hard, what about others who aren't as fit and healthy - jabbed or not?!

Not that SIL has ever had an ounce of common sense...

*He's about 53 IIRC
She’s “advised” to get a PCR test and if she tests positive, she has to isolate. But isolation for close contacts ends tomorrow.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:03 pm

She went against the authorities and opened her restaurant during lockdown

Now it turns out that for months she's been fighting long covid after contracting the auto-translated "crown virus".
He [sic.] also wants to try alternative medicine
Might as f.cking well, you moron.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:16 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Aug 15, 2021 2:52 pm
nezumi wrote:
Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:29 am
Anecdote alert:

My brother-in-law has Covid, silly effer went to London. He is double jabbed but he is bad as a dog in bed with it. Just to think how bad it's hit him double-jabbed - if he'd caught it before getting the vaccine he might have actually died. My sister-in-law (my husbands sister and her husband btw) isn't going to isolate because from tomorrow she apparently doesn't have to! This comes second hand from my mother-in-law and we rarely speak to SIL and BIL so no chance to change minds there. They're following what the law says, not what common sense says!

You'd think they'd realise that, if it's hitting a fit, healthy, double-jabbed man in the prime of his life* this hard, what about others who aren't as fit and healthy - jabbed or not?!

Not that SIL has ever had an ounce of common sense...

*He's about 53 IIRC
She’s “advised” to get a PCR test and if she tests positive, she has to isolate. But isolation for close contacts ends tomorrow.
Bizarrely, and mostly because we're governed by complete tools, I don't think it counts people who were already self-isolating. So technically she does still have to self isolate from tomorrow. However, I think that rule is likely to be followed as much as the one where people over 18 who are unvaccinated or have only had one vaccine need to isolate and nobody else does.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:48 am

we were allowed to go on holiday but we shouldn't have been

"We couldn't get into the show bar, because it was busy. The security on the door were just letting anyone in. [and then] we did go to the show bar."

"There should still be some measures in place. Covid is still out there" said a member of the family who all infected each other.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Fishnut » Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:37 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:48 am
we were allowed to go on holiday but we shouldn't have been

"We couldn't get into the show bar, because it was busy. The security on the door were just letting anyone in. [and then] we did go to the show bar."

"There should still be some measures in place. Covid is still out there" said a member of the family who all infected each other.
It's interesting that all their concerns are about surface contamination and there wasn't a single mention of ventilation or masks. Over a year on and the message still hasn't got through.
it's okay to say "I don't know"

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:24 am

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:37 am
shpalman wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:48 am
we were allowed to go on holiday but we shouldn't have been

"We couldn't get into the show bar, because it was busy. The security on the door were just letting anyone in. [and then] we did go to the show bar."

"There should still be some measures in place. Covid is still out there" said a member of the family who all infected each other.
It's interesting that all their concerns are about surface contamination and there wasn't a single mention of ventilation or masks. Over a year on and the message still hasn't got through.
Well, quite. It doesn't sound very pleasant but that's not specifically a covid problem. The covid problem is gathering a whole load of different people in the same place but claiming you have some sort of magic "covid protocol" which makes everything fine, when there's no evidence of even that. You don't even have any rules about a UK equivalent of the EU Green Pass in force yet, right?
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by monkey » Wed Aug 18, 2021 3:11 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:37 am
shpalman wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:48 am
we were allowed to go on holiday but we shouldn't have been

"We couldn't get into the show bar, because it was busy. The security on the door were just letting anyone in. [and then] we did go to the show bar."

"There should still be some measures in place. Covid is still out there" said a member of the family who all infected each other.
It's interesting that all their concerns are about surface contamination and there wasn't a single mention of ventilation or masks. Over a year on and the message still hasn't got through.
Cleaning of surfaces and hands to prevent illness/kill germs is something that everyone is taught as a child, then as you grow up you are reminded of that every time you see a Dettol advert or for antibacterial soap. So it seems like it would be easy for those sorts of ideas to stick, because they already knew that's how you prevent disease. You don't have the same with masks and ventilation.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:11 pm

https://www.devonlive.com/whats-on/what ... ge-5804451

More organisers who’ve gone over and above what’s asked to prevent covid. It’s almost like this pandemic isn’t actually over yet.

It may or may not be a coincidence that Cornwall has subsequently seen it’s highest number of daily cases since then.

https://mobile.twitter.com/julesmchamis ... 3257628675

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:57 am

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:37 am
It's interesting that all their concerns are about surface contamination and there wasn't a single mention of ventilation or masks. Over a year on and the message still hasn't got through.
Yes. But the concerns about cleanliness are probably partly concerns that this shows a lax attitude to health in general which indicates that Covid precautions are very unlikely to be adequate also. Though this is a good point:
She also said that a manager at the resort said, "it couldn't have been that bad because they stayed all week."
Yes, if you think your heallth is being threatened, it's probably not very sensible to stay.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by nezumi » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:43 am

Well, I spoke too soon. Went to the shops yesterday and mask usage has dropped like a stone. There was only me and an elderly Asian lady wearing masks, everyone else appears to have forgotten that Covid is a thing.
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:15 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:11 pm
https://www.devonlive.com/whats-on/what ... ge-5804451

More organisers who’ve gone over and above what’s asked to prevent covid. It’s almost like this pandemic isn’t actually over yet.

It may or may not be a coincidence that Cornwall has subsequently seen it’s highest number of daily cases since then.

https://mobile.twitter.com/julesmchamis ... 3257628675
Straight from the success of Board Masters as spreading event the SW brings you
The Dartmouth Regatta
and
Beautiful Days

Particular shout out for Dartmouth organisers assuring people attending they are safe and compliant. Exactly what they are compliant with I have no idea since I don't think we have any regulations to be compliant with.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:25 am

OffTheRock wrote:
Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:15 pm
Straight from the success of Board Masters as spreading event the SW brings you
The Dartmouth Regatta
and
Beautiful Days

Particular shout out for Dartmouth organisers assuring people attending they are safe and compliant. Exactly what they are compliant with I have no idea since I don't think we have any regulations to be compliant with.
Well they are not.compliant with normal usage of the word "unprecedented"...
Following on from our unprecedented cancellation last year - only the 11th time in our 175-year history

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