New Covid Variants

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Herainestold
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 am
There's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
Frightening.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

Herainestold
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:10 pm

How serious is Delta Covid variant for UK and do vaccines stop it?
Greater Manchester and Lancashire to get ‘strengthened’ support to combat spread of virus strain
https://www.ft.com/content/f2ae00ee-e3a ... f5cb540321


According to PHE, the effectiveness of both the Oxford/AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines in preventing symptomatic disease after a single dose drops to 33 per cent because of the Delta variant.

But, after two doses, this figure rises steeply to 60 per cent for Oxford/AstraZeneca and 88 per cent for BioNTech/Pfizer.

Deborah Dunn-Walters, chair of the British Society for Immunology’s Covid-19 task force, who has advised Sage, told the FT: “We thus appear to be in a race between giving two vaccine doses to everyone versus the spread of the Delta variant.”





“All else [being] equal, an increase in transmissibility is a greater cause for concern than an increase in severity, because an increase in transmissibility makes the virus that much harder to control and threatens to undo more of the progress we’ve made in administering vaccines,” said Davies.
How are hospitals coping?

After falling for months, hospital admissions and patient numbers are now climbing across most of the UK, with the north-west of England showing signs of exponential growth.
We need two doses and we need to slow down transmission while we get those doses administered. The only way to quickly affect transmission is lockdown. Double masking and outdoor mask mandates would also help.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by headshot » Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:20 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:10 pm
How serious is Delta Covid variant for UK and do vaccines stop it?
Greater Manchester and Lancashire to get ‘strengthened’ support to combat spread of virus strain
https://www.ft.com/content/f2ae00ee-e3a ... f5cb540321


According to PHE, the effectiveness of both the Oxford/AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines in preventing symptomatic disease after a single dose drops to 33 per cent because of the Delta variant.

But, after two doses, this figure rises steeply to 60 per cent for Oxford/AstraZeneca and 88 per cent for BioNTech/Pfizer.

Deborah Dunn-Walters, chair of the British Society for Immunology’s Covid-19 task force, who has advised Sage, told the FT: “We thus appear to be in a race between giving two vaccine doses to everyone versus the spread of the Delta variant.”





“All else [being] equal, an increase in transmissibility is a greater cause for concern than an increase in severity, because an increase in transmissibility makes the virus that much harder to control and threatens to undo more of the progress we’ve made in administering vaccines,” said Davies.
How are hospitals coping?

After falling for months, hospital admissions and patient numbers are now climbing across most of the UK, with the north-west of England showing signs of exponential growth.
We need two doses and we need to slow down transmission while we get those doses administered. The only way to quickly affect transmission is lockdown. Double masking and outdoor mask mandates would also help.
Say it again, we didn't hear you the first (50) time(s).

Herainestold
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:53 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:20 pm

Say it again, we didn't hear you the first (50) time(s).
We need two doses and we need to slow down transmission while we get those doses administered. The only way to quickly affect transmission is lockdown. Double masking and outdoor mask mandates would also help.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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Catbabel
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by headshot » Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:05 pm

Womp womp.

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Grumble
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Grumble » Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:25 am

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 am
There's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
Frightening.
Happens to be the country with the strongest links to India, not surprising really.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:02 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:25 am
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 am
There's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
Frightening.
Happens to be the country with the strongest links to India, not surprising really.
Well, that and the lack of restrictions on flights.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

Triple birds. Triple jokes. Triple Tripel.

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:55 am

PHE data confirms there have been 42 deaths so far in England with Delta variant
As of 7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant of Covid-19 and who died within 28 days of a positive test, according to Public Health England.

Of this number, 23 were unvaccinated, seven were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine, and 12 were more than 14 days after their second dose.
How long has this variant been around for now and how many deaths have there been in total in that time? 42 is less than a week's worth in the UK at the moment.
molto tricky

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bob sterman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by bob sterman » Fri Jun 11, 2021 11:09 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:55 am
PHE data confirms there have been 42 deaths so far in England with Delta variant
As of 7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant of Covid-19 and who died within 28 days of a positive test, according to Public Health England.

Of this number, 23 were unvaccinated, seven were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine, and 12 were more than 14 days after their second dose.
How long has this variant been around for now and how many deaths have there been in total in that time? 42 is less than a week's worth in the UK at the moment.
Need to bear in mind, that's only deaths of confirmed/probable Delta variant cases - they are not sequencing/genotyping everyone.

I think about 250,000 cases have been sequenced/genotyped since October 1st, out of about 4 million confirmed cases since then.

In the PHE data, there are only about 4000 deaths since October 1st being attributed to an identified variant. There have been about 85,000 COVID deaths. So it doesn't look like deaths are more likely to be sequenced/genotyped than cases in general.

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Fri Jun 11, 2021 11:28 am

So it's a useless number without knowing how many deaths they sequenced in total.
molto tricky

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Woodchopper
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:07 pm

Much more about Delta here:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigationin EnglandTechnical briefing 1511June2021
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... iefing.pdf

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jimbob
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by jimbob » Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:46 pm

Covid Zoe talk on the Delta variant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHBua3aXQ7c

Key symptoms have changed to

Sore throat, headache, runny nose, fever. - just in time for hayfever season

Cough is less common, loss of smell no longer in the top 10 symptoms for the Delta variant

reduced protection for partially-vaccinated
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Herainestold
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jun 12, 2021 3:18 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:25 am
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 am
There's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
Frightening.
Happens to be the country with the strongest links to India, not surprising really.
Not surprising at all, but the results of Delta wave are very frightening.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 12, 2021 1:25 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:02 am
Grumble wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:25 am
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pm


Frightening.
Happens to be the country with the strongest links to India, not surprising really.
Well, that and the lack of restrictions on flights.
That's how it got to the UK, but the Alpha variant which started in the UK basically caused wave 2.5 on the continent (the post-Christmas bounce on the way down from the autumn's second wave) and I'm watching carefully to see if the Delta variant has arrived on the continent from the UK to do something similarly annoying.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:12 pm

Delta variant involved in an outbreak at a gym in Milan

Well, one of the 10 cases is the Delta variant but they haven't sequenced the other 9 yet.
molto tricky

Herainestold
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:13 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:12 pm
Delta variant involved in an outbreak at a gym in Milan

Well, one of the 10 cases is the Delta variant but they haven't sequenced the other 9 yet.
You guys need to shut down gyms. Among other things
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:32 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:13 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:12 pm
Delta variant involved in an outbreak at a gym in Milan

Well, one of the 10 cases is the Delta variant but they haven't sequenced the other 9 yet.
You guys need to shut down gyms. Among other things
We haven't even shut down that gym. They just cleaned it, and reopened.

But I'm not going back to my gym just yet. Last year I also waited until July even though they opened in June. Rules on mask wearing etc. weren't really being followed and the trainers said they couldn't do anything about it.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:38 am

With Boris Johnson poised to announce a delay to his plan to remove the remaining restrictions on 21 June, an Opinium poll for the Observer found that 54% think the move should be postponed, up from 43% from a fortnight ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... is-johnson
molto tricky

raven
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by raven » Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:26 pm

Let's hope plenty of people caught Marr this morning. The guy from UCL - Prof Andrew Hayward - had a great metaphor for our current situtation vis a vis the Delta variant: when you're driving towards a blind bend you take your foot of the gas, and maybe you even brake. You don't accelerate.

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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by headshot » Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:08 pm

raven wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:26 pm
Let's hope plenty of people caught Marr this morning. The guy from UCL - Prof Andrew Hayward - had a great metaphor for our current situtation vis a vis the Delta variant: when you're driving towards a blind bend you take your foot of the gas, and maybe you even brake. You don't accelerate.
Yeah. Wait until the apex then floor it.

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:14 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:08 pm
raven wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:26 pm
Let's hope plenty of people caught Marr this morning. The guy from UCL - Prof Andrew Hayward - had a great metaphor for our current situtation vis a vis the Delta variant: when you're driving towards a blind bend you take your foot of the gas, and maybe you even brake. You don't accelerate.
Yeah. Wait until the apex then floor it.
Come off the brake as you turn in.
molto tricky

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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by headshot » Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:16 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:14 pm
headshot wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:08 pm
raven wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:26 pm
Let's hope plenty of people caught Marr this morning. The guy from UCL - Prof Andrew Hayward - had a great metaphor for our current situtation vis a vis the Delta variant: when you're driving towards a blind bend you take your foot of the gas, and maybe you even brake. You don't accelerate.
Yeah. Wait until the apex then floor it.
Come off the brake as you turn in.
Slow in, fast out.

(Fnar)

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shpalman
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:20 pm

The government is going to lock up the front and understeer off the road.
molto tricky

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lpm
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by lpm » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:44 pm

We're a clown car, the wheels will fall off before we get to the corner.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Woodchopper
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Re: New Covid Variants

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:02 pm


As the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads in southeastern China, doctors say they are finding that the symptoms are different and more dangerous than those they saw when the initial version of the virus started spreading in late 2019 in the central city of Wuhan.

Patients are becoming sicker and their conditions are worsening much more quickly, doctors told state-run television on Thursday and Friday. Four-fifths of symptomatic cases developed fevers, they said, although it was not clear how that compared with earlier cases. The virus concentrations that are detected in their bodies climb to levels higher than previously seen, and then decline only slowly, the doctors said.

Up to 12 percent of patients become severely or critically ill within three to four days of the onset of symptoms, said Guan Xiangdong, director of critical care medicine at Sun Yat-sen University in the city of Guangzhou, where the outbreak has been centered. In the past, the proportion had been 2 percent or 3 percent, although occasionally up to 10 percent, he said.

[...]

China has uniquely detailed data, however, because it has essentially universal testing in the vicinity of outbreaks, allowing officials to gather detailed information on the extent of cases.

Delta’s spread in southeastern China focuses more attention on the effectiveness of China’s self-made vaccines. The Chinese authorities have not indicated how many of the new infections have occurred in people who had been vaccinated. In some other countries where Chinese-made vaccines are in wide use, including the Seychelles and Mongolia, infections among vaccinated people are rising, although few patients have reportedly developed serious illness.

Nearby Shenzhen had a handful of cases last week of the Alpha variant, which first emerged in Britain.

As some other parts of the world still struggle to acquire and administer large numbers of coronavirus tests, southeastern China has used its local production of scarce chemicals to conduct testing on a remarkable scale. The authorities said that they had conducted 32 million tests in Guangzhou, which has 18 million people, and 10 million in the adjacent city of Foshan, which has seven million.

Guangzhou has also isolated and quarantined tens of thousands of residents who had been anywhere near those infected. The testing and quarantine appear to have slowed but not stopped the outbreak. China’s National Health Commission announced on Friday that nine new cases had been found in Guangzhou the previous day.

“The epidemic is not over yet, and the risk of virus transmission still exists,” said Chen Bin, deputy director of the Guangzhou Municipal Health Commission.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/worl ... gzhou.html

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