Re: New Covid Variants
Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pm
Frightening.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 amThere's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
Frightening.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 amThere's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
https://www.ft.com/content/f2ae00ee-e3a ... f5cb540321How serious is Delta Covid variant for UK and do vaccines stop it?
Greater Manchester and Lancashire to get ‘strengthened’ support to combat spread of virus strain
We need two doses and we need to slow down transmission while we get those doses administered. The only way to quickly affect transmission is lockdown. Double masking and outdoor mask mandates would also help.According to PHE, the effectiveness of both the Oxford/AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines in preventing symptomatic disease after a single dose drops to 33 per cent because of the Delta variant.
But, after two doses, this figure rises steeply to 60 per cent for Oxford/AstraZeneca and 88 per cent for BioNTech/Pfizer.
Deborah Dunn-Walters, chair of the British Society for Immunology’s Covid-19 task force, who has advised Sage, told the FT: “We thus appear to be in a race between giving two vaccine doses to everyone versus the spread of the Delta variant.”
“All else [being] equal, an increase in transmissibility is a greater cause for concern than an increase in severity, because an increase in transmissibility makes the virus that much harder to control and threatens to undo more of the progress we’ve made in administering vaccines,” said Davies.
How are hospitals coping?
After falling for months, hospital admissions and patient numbers are now climbing across most of the UK, with the north-west of England showing signs of exponential growth.
Say it again, we didn't hear you the first (50) time(s).Herainestold wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:10 pmhttps://www.ft.com/content/f2ae00ee-e3a ... f5cb540321How serious is Delta Covid variant for UK and do vaccines stop it?
Greater Manchester and Lancashire to get ‘strengthened’ support to combat spread of virus strain
We need two doses and we need to slow down transmission while we get those doses administered. The only way to quickly affect transmission is lockdown. Double masking and outdoor mask mandates would also help.According to PHE, the effectiveness of both the Oxford/AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines in preventing symptomatic disease after a single dose drops to 33 per cent because of the Delta variant.
But, after two doses, this figure rises steeply to 60 per cent for Oxford/AstraZeneca and 88 per cent for BioNTech/Pfizer.
Deborah Dunn-Walters, chair of the British Society for Immunology’s Covid-19 task force, who has advised Sage, told the FT: “We thus appear to be in a race between giving two vaccine doses to everyone versus the spread of the Delta variant.”
“All else [being] equal, an increase in transmissibility is a greater cause for concern than an increase in severity, because an increase in transmissibility makes the virus that much harder to control and threatens to undo more of the progress we’ve made in administering vaccines,” said Davies.
How are hospitals coping?
After falling for months, hospital admissions and patient numbers are now climbing across most of the UK, with the north-west of England showing signs of exponential growth.
We need two doses and we need to slow down transmission while we get those doses administered. The only way to quickly affect transmission is lockdown. Double masking and outdoor mask mandates would also help.
Happens to be the country with the strongest links to India, not surprising really.Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pmFrightening.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 amThere's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
Well, that and the lack of restrictions on flights.Grumble wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:25 amHappens to be the country with the strongest links to India, not surprising really.Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pmFrightening.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 amThere's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
How long has this variant been around for now and how many deaths have there been in total in that time? 42 is less than a week's worth in the UK at the moment.As of 7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant of Covid-19 and who died within 28 days of a positive test, according to Public Health England.
Of this number, 23 were unvaccinated, seven were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine, and 12 were more than 14 days after their second dose.
Need to bear in mind, that's only deaths of confirmed/probable Delta variant cases - they are not sequencing/genotyping everyone.shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:55 amPHE data confirms there have been 42 deaths so far in England with Delta variant
How long has this variant been around for now and how many deaths have there been in total in that time? 42 is less than a week's worth in the UK at the moment.As of 7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant of Covid-19 and who died within 28 days of a positive test, according to Public Health England.
Of this number, 23 were unvaccinated, seven were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine, and 12 were more than 14 days after their second dose.
Not surprising at all, but the results of Delta wave are very frightening.Grumble wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:25 amHappens to be the country with the strongest links to India, not surprising really.Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:43 pmFrightening.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:49 amThere's only one country in Europe where Delta is dominant[citation needed]
That's how it got to the UK, but the Alpha variant which started in the UK basically caused wave 2.5 on the continent (the post-Christmas bounce on the way down from the autumn's second wave) and I'm watching carefully to see if the Delta variant has arrived on the continent from the UK to do something similarly annoying.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:02 amWell, that and the lack of restrictions on flights.
You guys need to shut down gyms. Among other thingsshpalman wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:12 pmDelta variant involved in an outbreak at a gym in Milan
Well, one of the 10 cases is the Delta variant but they haven't sequenced the other 9 yet.
We haven't even shut down that gym. They just cleaned it, and reopened.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:13 amYou guys need to shut down gyms. Among other thingsshpalman wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:12 pmDelta variant involved in an outbreak at a gym in Milan
Well, one of the 10 cases is the Delta variant but they haven't sequenced the other 9 yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... is-johnsonWith Boris Johnson poised to announce a delay to his plan to remove the remaining restrictions on 21 June, an Opinium poll for the Observer found that 54% think the move should be postponed, up from 43% from a fortnight ago.
Yeah. Wait until the apex then floor it.raven wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:26 pmLet's hope plenty of people caught Marr this morning. The guy from UCL - Prof Andrew Hayward - had a great metaphor for our current situtation vis a vis the Delta variant: when you're driving towards a blind bend you take your foot of the gas, and maybe you even brake. You don't accelerate.
Come off the brake as you turn in.headshot wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:08 pmYeah. Wait until the apex then floor it.raven wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:26 pmLet's hope plenty of people caught Marr this morning. The guy from UCL - Prof Andrew Hayward - had a great metaphor for our current situtation vis a vis the Delta variant: when you're driving towards a blind bend you take your foot of the gas, and maybe you even brake. You don't accelerate.
Slow in, fast out.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:14 pmCome off the brake as you turn in.headshot wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:08 pmYeah. Wait until the apex then floor it.raven wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:26 pmLet's hope plenty of people caught Marr this morning. The guy from UCL - Prof Andrew Hayward - had a great metaphor for our current situtation vis a vis the Delta variant: when you're driving towards a blind bend you take your foot of the gas, and maybe you even brake. You don't accelerate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/worl ... gzhou.html
As the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads in southeastern China, doctors say they are finding that the symptoms are different and more dangerous than those they saw when the initial version of the virus started spreading in late 2019 in the central city of Wuhan.
Patients are becoming sicker and their conditions are worsening much more quickly, doctors told state-run television on Thursday and Friday. Four-fifths of symptomatic cases developed fevers, they said, although it was not clear how that compared with earlier cases. The virus concentrations that are detected in their bodies climb to levels higher than previously seen, and then decline only slowly, the doctors said.
Up to 12 percent of patients become severely or critically ill within three to four days of the onset of symptoms, said Guan Xiangdong, director of critical care medicine at Sun Yat-sen University in the city of Guangzhou, where the outbreak has been centered. In the past, the proportion had been 2 percent or 3 percent, although occasionally up to 10 percent, he said.
[...]
China has uniquely detailed data, however, because it has essentially universal testing in the vicinity of outbreaks, allowing officials to gather detailed information on the extent of cases.
Delta’s spread in southeastern China focuses more attention on the effectiveness of China’s self-made vaccines. The Chinese authorities have not indicated how many of the new infections have occurred in people who had been vaccinated. In some other countries where Chinese-made vaccines are in wide use, including the Seychelles and Mongolia, infections among vaccinated people are rising, although few patients have reportedly developed serious illness.
Nearby Shenzhen had a handful of cases last week of the Alpha variant, which first emerged in Britain.
As some other parts of the world still struggle to acquire and administer large numbers of coronavirus tests, southeastern China has used its local production of scarce chemicals to conduct testing on a remarkable scale. The authorities said that they had conducted 32 million tests in Guangzhou, which has 18 million people, and 10 million in the adjacent city of Foshan, which has seven million.
Guangzhou has also isolated and quarantined tens of thousands of residents who had been anywhere near those infected. The testing and quarantine appear to have slowed but not stopped the outbreak. China’s National Health Commission announced on Friday that nine new cases had been found in Guangzhou the previous day.
“The epidemic is not over yet, and the risk of virus transmission still exists,” said Chen Bin, deputy director of the Guangzhou Municipal Health Commission.