Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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jimbob
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by jimbob » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:17 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:54 pm
noggins wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:31 pm
Millennie Al wrote:
Sat Jul 03, 2021 1:00 am


What amazes me is the colossal ingratitude towards organisations which save so many lives. Are treatments which save so many not worth a few pounds each?
Herainestold is bizzaro-sheldrake
sheldrake is/was a bizarro right winger. I am of the left.
Why are you so keen on Putin or China then?

China is full-on robber-baron capitalism with a massive state apparatus on top. Closer to a typical right-wing regime as propped up by the CIA in the Cold War rather than a Communist state.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 am

jimbob wrote:
Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:17 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:54 pm
noggins wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:31 pm


Herainestold is bizzaro-sheldrake
sheldrake is/was a bizarro right winger. I am of the left.
Why are you so keen on Putin or China then?

China is full-on robber-baron capitalism with a massive state apparatus on top. Closer to a typical right-wing regime as propped up by the CIA in the Cold War rather than a Communist state.
I'm not keen on Putin. I like the Sputnik vaccine, which appears to be good, and was not developed by Putin but by Russian scientists.

China is now the predominant global power. Their response to Covid has enhanced their position in the world. Better get used to it.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:37 am

molto tricky

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:28 am

Spain's daily vaccination statistics include delivery (i.e., from the manufacturer) numbers for doses. The last recorded delivery of AZ included in those numbers was about 2 million in week 27, taking the total to 10.38m. Since then (we're now in week 32) the numbers have gone down by 300k, perhaps reflecting transfers to other countries.

Two categories of people got AZ here: The 60-69 age group (including me and Mrs sTeamTraen), and younger essential workers. Many of the latter were offered Pfizer for round 2 but I don't know how many chose that. In the 60-69 group we're at a very high level of takeup. So it may be that AZ is effectively over here.

Anecdotally, when younger people are offered a choice between Janssen and a 2-dose mRNA vaccine, many are choosing the former for convenience.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by bob sterman » Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:34 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 am
I'm not keen on Putin. I like the Sputnik vaccine, which appears to be good, and was not developed by Putin but by Russian scientists.
Indeed - but Putin has clearly carried out the evaluation of its effectiveness...

Covid: Putin says Sputnik vaccines 'reliable as Kalashnikovs'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57016265
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 am
China is now the predominant global power. Their response to Covid has enhanced their position in the world. Better get used to it.
Enhanced?

Are Chinese vaccines to blame for Asia’s rising Covid crisis? Malaysia to phase out Sinovac jab amid growing concern over its efficacy
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-ne ... ovid-cases

Uruguay to Give Pfizer Booster to Sinovac Vaccine Recipients
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... recipients

Report: China Considering Foreign Booster Shot to Improve Efficacy of Its Vaccines
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandem ... s-vaccines

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:55 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:28 am
Spain's daily vaccination statistics include delivery (i.e., from the manufacturer) numbers for doses. The last recorded delivery of AZ included in those numbers was about 2 million in week 27, taking the total to 10.38m. Since then (we're now in week 32) the numbers have gone down by 300k, perhaps reflecting transfers to other countries.

Two categories of people got AZ here: The 60-69 age group (including me and Mrs sTeamTraen), and younger essential workers. Many of the latter were offered Pfizer for round 2 but I don't know how many chose that. In the 60-69 group we're at a very high level of takeup. So it may be that AZ is effectively over here.

Anecdotally, when younger people are offered a choice between Janssen and a 2-dose mRNA vaccine, many are choosing the former for convenience.
I could look through the csv files in the git to figure out how many AstraZenecas are being administered, but Italy has received 12 million so far compared to nearly 54 million Pfizers of which about 2 million arrived just the other day. The last significant delivery of AZs was at the beginning of July.

Everyone over 50 by now is either double-dosed or not at all, i.e. there's nobody in those age groups waiting for a second dose, and I'm assuming that if they didn't get the first dose by now that they'd prefer to acquire immunity in the natural way i.e. by being dead.

And of course for 49 and under Italy doesn't officially recommend AZ even if there have been "open days" for young people to use up stocks.

https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/

So yeah I don't think there are many AZ doses being given any more in Italy either.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Aug 12, 2021 1:13 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:34 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 am
I'm not keen on Putin. I like the Sputnik vaccine, which appears to be good, and was not developed by Putin but by Russian scientists.
Indeed - but Putin has clearly carried out the evaluation of its effectiveness...

Covid: Putin says Sputnik vaccines 'reliable as Kalashnikovs'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57016265
There are concerns over the reporting of the various stages of the Sputnik clinical trials. While I am not as convinced as my colleague Kyle Sheldrick (with whom, among others, I'm working on various dodgy Ivermectin studies) that there is clear evidence of faking, there are certainly questions to be answered, especially since the authors are refusing to share their data.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:21 am

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:34 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 am
I'm not keen on Putin. I like the Sputnik vaccine, which appears to be good, and was not developed by Putin but by Russian scientists.
Indeed - but Putin has clearly carried out the evaluation of its effectiveness...

Covid: Putin says Sputnik vaccines 'reliable as Kalashnikovs'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57016265
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 am
China is now the predominant global power. Their response to Covid has enhanced their position in the world. Better get used to it.
Enhanced?

Are Chinese vaccines to blame for Asia’s rising Covid crisis? Malaysia to phase out Sinovac jab amid growing concern over its efficacy
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-ne ... ovid-cases

Uruguay to Give Pfizer Booster to Sinovac Vaccine Recipients
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... recipients

Report: China Considering Foreign Booster Shot to Improve Efficacy of Its Vaccines
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandem ... s-vaccines
Sputnik would have a better reputation if Putin stayed out of it.

Chilean reviews of Sinovac vaccine show it to be very effective.
SINOVAC

Regarding the Sinovac vaccine, effectiveness results 14 days after the second dose, among a cohort of 8,600,000 individuals over the age of 16 affiliated to FONASA (National Health Service) were:

58.49% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19
86.02% effectiveness in preventing hospitalization
89.68% effectiveness in preventing ICU admission
86.38% effectiveness in preventing death
Not bad considering Pfizer is down to 39% efficacy against infection in Israel (Still way better than no vaccine IMHO)

A lot of anti-Chinese bias in western media accounts of Chinese vaccine effectiveness.

https://chilereports.cl/en/news/2021/08 ... -and-death
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by jdc » Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:53 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:21 am

Chilean reviews of Sinovac vaccine show it to be very effective.
SINOVAC

Regarding the Sinovac vaccine, effectiveness results 14 days after the second dose, among a cohort of 8,600,000 individuals over the age of 16 affiliated to FONASA (National Health Service) were:

58.49% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19
86.02% effectiveness in preventing hospitalization
89.68% effectiveness in preventing ICU admission
86.38% effectiveness in preventing death
Not bad considering Pfizer is down to 39% efficacy against infection in Israel (Still way better than no vaccine IMHO)
That 39% figure isn't comparable to those for Sinovac as it refers to prevention of any infection, which seems to be the one figure not given for Sinovac. Israel's data showed higher protection for Pfizer against hospitalisation than your Sinovac figure for the same outcome:
The vaccine still provides very high levels of protection against hospitalization (92%) and severe illness (91%) caused by the Delta variant, the ministry said.
There's also the issue that Israel's data seems to be the most pessimistic available.

This https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf gives 87% for Pfizer against symptomatic infections with Delta. This 88% https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 These figures are for the same outcome as the first Sinovac figure you gave, which was 58.49%

I'm assuming, btw, that the Sinovac data is for protection against Delta. If it isn't, then the use of the 39% figure for Pfizer is even more inappropriate.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Chris Preston » Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:02 am

jdc wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:53 pm

There's also the issue that Israel's data seems to be the most pessimistic available.

This https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf gives 87% for Pfizer against symptomatic infections with Delta. This 88% https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 These figures are for the same outcome as the first Sinovac figure you gave, which was 58.49%

I'm assuming, btw, that the Sinovac data is for protection against Delta. If it isn't, then the use of the 39% figure for Pfizer is even more inappropriate.
The gamma variant was the most common in Chile during the period of the study, though it is now being replaced by the lambda variant.

The same Chilean study gave the following efficacy for the Pfizer vaccine:

Regarding the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, effectiveness results 14 days after the second dose, among a cohort of 4,500,000 individuals over the age of 16 affiliated to FONASA were:

87.69% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19
97.15% effectiveness in preventing hospitalization
98.29% effectiveness in preventing ICU admission
100% effectiveness in preventing death

And for AstraZeneca:

Regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine, effectiveness results 14 days after the second dose, among a cohort of 2,380,000 individuals over the age of 16 affiliated to FONASA were:

68.68% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19
100% effectiveness in preventing hospitalization
100% effectiveness in preventing ICU admission
100% effectiveness in preventing death

https://chilereports.cl/en/news/2021/08 ... -and-death
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by jdc » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:42 pm

Thanks Chris. The use of the Israeli figure for Pfizer is mystifying if Herainestold had the directly comparable Chilean data in front of him.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by headshot » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:56 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:42 pm
Thanks Chris. The use of the Israeli figure for Pfizer is mystifying if Herainestold had the directly comparable Chilean data in front of him.
Because Delta…and wibble.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:35 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:42 pm
Thanks Chris. The use of the Israeli figure for Pfizer is mystifying if Herainestold had the directly comparable Chilean data in front of him.
I was trying to show that the Chinese vaccines are not crap, as suggested by some, and the Pfizer vaccines are not as great as some think.
However they are not strictly comparable numbers and I shouldn't have implied that they are. Why are the Israeli numbers so much lower than everybody else?

Vaccines, despite current arguments about efficacy and comparisons are life saving interventions for millions of people.We have other tools to help prevent transmission and we should be using them.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Opti » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:22 am

I accept what you are trying to say, but b.llsh.t like that is not going to fly well ... especially on this particular forum.

As you have found out on several occasions, you'll get called on it each and every time. Learn from people on here and try better.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:38 am

Sobering article on Delta variant vaccine breakthrough cases and waning immunity. This in a US context more than UK, but its the same variant.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/202 ... oblem.html
How worried are you about that?
The next variants will be worse, because Delta is now the baseline. All the lineages will derive from Delta. And when you compound the two and you say, okay, you have immunological waning at the same time that you have a new variant, then all of a sudden, we’re in a much more dire situation with the elderly, where people who think that they’re protected, just won’t be.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:59 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:02 am
The same Chilean study gave the following efficacy for the Pfizer vaccine:

Regarding the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, effectiveness results 14 days after the second dose, among a cohort of 4,500,000 individuals over the age of 16 affiliated to FONASA were:

87.69% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19
97.15% effectiveness in preventing hospitalization
98.29% effectiveness in preventing ICU admission
100% effectiveness in preventing death

And for AstraZeneca:

Regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine, effectiveness results 14 days after the second dose, among a cohort of 2,380,000 individuals over the age of 16 affiliated to FONASA were:

68.68% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19
100% effectiveness in preventing hospitalization
100% effectiveness in preventing ICU admission
100% effectiveness in preventing death

https://chilereports.cl/en/news/2021/08 ... -and-death
From a quick read of the paper it looks like this is based on 65,000 cases among 2-shot Pfizer recipients but only about 100 with AZ. Do we know what the policy is about which age/etc groups get AZ in Chile?
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Chris Preston » Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:53 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:59 am
From a quick read of the paper it looks like this is based on 65,000 cases among 2-shot Pfizer recipients but only about 100 with AZ. Do we know what the policy is about which age/etc groups get AZ in Chile?
Chile started vaccinating in February 2021. In June it raised the age for AstraZeneca vaccine to 45 from 18. The numbers in the report roughly match the number of various vaccines given. In May those were 13.9 million doses of CoronaVac, 2.6 million doses of Pfizer and 90,000 doses of AstraZeneca https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8154192/
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:24 pm

Spain's official figure for doses of AZ delivered fell again this week. It's now down to 9,979,000, which is 408,800 below the number in mid-July. I presume they are working out who still needs a second AZ dose more accurately, and sending the rest elsewhere.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:52 am

AZD7442 PROVENT Phase III prophylaxis trial met primary endpoint in preventing COVID-19
Positive high-level results from the PROVENT Phase III pre-exposure prophylaxis trial showed AstraZeneca's AZD7442 achieved a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19, the trial's primary endpoint.

AZD7442, a combination of two long-acting antibodies (LAAB), reduced the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 by 77% (95% confidence interval (CI): 46, 90), compared to placebo. The trial accrued 25 cases of symptomatic COVID-19 at the primary analysis.

There were no cases of severe COVID-19 or COVID-19-related deaths in those treated with AZD7442. In the placebo arm, there were three cases of severe COVID-19, which included two deaths.

AZD7442 is the first antibody combination (non-vaccine) modified to potentially provide long-lasting protection that has demonstrated prevention of COVID-19 in a clinical trial.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Pishwish » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:01 pm

BBC presenter dies of complications arising from AstraZenica vaccine.
[the coroner] said Ms Shaw was previously fit and well but concluded that it was "clearly established" that her death was due to a very rare "vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia", a condition which leads to swelling and bleeding of the brain.
Desperately sad and unlucky. A bit concerning that the measures recommended to deal with the condition were followed. No doubt this story will be popping up all over antivax social media.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by Herainestold » Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:48 pm

Maybe Astra Zeneca isn't so bad after all. Protection doesn't decline as rapidly as Pfizer.
The effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine against Covid-19 declines faster than that of the AstraZeneca jab, according to a new study published on Thursday.

"Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech have greater initial effectiveness against new COVID-19 infections, but this declines faster compared with two doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca," researchers at Oxford University said.

The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, is based on the results of a survey by Britain's Office for National Statistics that carried out PCR tests from December last year to this month on randomly selected households.

It found that "the dynamics of immunity following second doses differed significantly" between Pfizer and AstraZeneca, according to the university's Nuffield Department of Medicine.

Pfizer had "greater initial effectiveness" but saw "faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection", when looking at a period of several months after full vaccination, although rates remained low for both jabs.
The sad fact is that vaccine protection declines and that has to be taken into consideration, when thinking about how covid spreads in the community.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by tom p » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:23 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 1:13 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:34 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 am
I'm not keen on Putin. I like the Sputnik vaccine, which appears to be good, and was not developed by Putin but by Russian scientists.
Indeed - but Putin has clearly carried out the evaluation of its effectiveness...

Covid: Putin says Sputnik vaccines 'reliable as Kalashnikovs'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57016265
There are concerns over the reporting of the various stages of the Sputnik clinical trials. While I am not as convinced as my colleague Kyle Sheldrick (with whom, among others, I'm working on various dodgy Ivermectin studies) that there is clear evidence of faking, there are certainly questions to be answered, especially since the authors are refusing to share their data.
I agree with you, steamy.
I don't think that this is a smoking gun proving they were planning to fix the trial all along.
It's perfectly possible to include a planned analysis because you don't have the experience to know that it is likely to look sh.t. Equally it's perfectly possible to list a load of analyses and only expect to use whatever is adequately powered or looks good (and you know that you'll come up with a plausible excuse for not doing the ones that don't look good) since doing analysis is the easy and cheap part of a study.
I don't for one minute think the whole thing was faked. The work involved and scrutiny are both too great, and the Russians care about their people too - a pandemic doesn't distinguish between members of Putin's inner circle and those who aren't.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the odd patient here or there were included in the right group to bump the numbers in the right direction.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by shpalman » Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:01 pm

EU and AstraZeneca reach deal to end vaccine row
AstraZeneca has agreed to deliver 200 million doses of its vaccine, which had been promised under a contract, to the EU by the end of March 2022.
Well I'm sure that's no f.cking use at all to anyone.
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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by jdc » Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:44 pm

Heroes of the year: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medica ... li=BBoPWjQ
The vaccine is now the most-used vaccine in the world and the most widely accepted for global travel, with 119 governments recognising it.

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Re: Is it all over for the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:10 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:24 pm
Spain's official figure for doses of AZ delivered fell again this week. It's now down to 9,979,000, which is 408,800 below the number in mid-July. I presume they are working out who still needs a second AZ dose more accurately, and sending the rest elsewhere.
Now down to 9,549,900, suggesting that 837,200 ordered doses have been sent elsewhere or never arrived.
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