Scrutable

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon May 31, 2021 11:10 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Mon May 31, 2021 1:15 pm

If they can resolve their production difficulties. Vaccinating billions of people requires billions of vaccines x2. AZ doesn't seem to be able to do that.
Pfizer has done better with the supposedly more difficult and complex mRNA vaccine.

The great thing about the Janssen (J&J) vaccine is that by only having one dose, you almost completely eliminate logistics. You can turn up in a village somewhere with a van and vaccinate everyone who wants it, give them a card and move on. No need to coordinate follow-up in three or eight weeks time. It probably allows you to vaccinate three or four times the number of people for the same amount of resources. It's also that rare thing in economics, a good that everyone wants but nobody wants or can really use more than one of (give or take the possibility of a local black market in some cases, I suppose).

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/

We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:22 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/

We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.

Probably not that often. But if future variants have much greater immune escape I can envision permanent restrictions on travel, vaccine boosters and periodic social distancing while people wait for the next booster to be produced.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

Britain is in talks with Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine that has been modified to better target the “beta” coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, and it will fund trials of the shots.

Britain has previously secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed at the University of Oxford and licenced to AstraZeneca, and the health ministry said the extra doses under discussion would be tailored to target the B.1.351 variant.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/

We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.

Latest research suggests two doses of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine still protect people from getting ill with the India variant.

Early lab results and real life data suggest the Pfizer vaccine can protect against the new variants, although slightly less effectively.

Data from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine team suggests it protects just as well against the Kent/UK variant. It offers less protection against the South Africa variant - but should still protect against severe illness.

One recent study suggests the Brazilian variant may resist antibodies in people who've recovered from Covid before.

Some early results suggest the Moderna vaccine is effective against the South Africa variant, although the immune response triggered may be weaker and shorter-lived.

jdc wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:20 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 021-06-01/

We are going to need boosters every 3-4 months to deal with these rapidly evolving variants and recurrent lockdowns for the foreseeable future to see our way through this crisis. Which is far from over.

I dunno, 3-4 months sounds a bit frequent to me. We've given the virus 18 months and hundreds of millions of subjects to experiment on and it's still not come up with a mutant strain that completely evades vaccination. The best it's managed is a reduction in antibody effectiveness and a smaller reduction in T cell effectiveness. It hasn't even come up with that many interesting new mutations; every time I read about a new strain it turns out to have boring old N501Y or E484K mutations.

Note that a mutation that enhances one viral property, such as binding to a receptor, can reduce another property (evolutionary trade-offs innit), and that the more successful variants share mutations. If there are a limited number of ways a virus can mutate and each of them involve trade-offs it seems a bit unlikely that we're going to have such a rapid occurrence of new mutant strains that each require a new vaccine to match them. Add that the current vaccines are still pretty effective* against the variants and it seems to me that we're even less likely to need quarterly booster shots. Then there's the point that we only have annual revaccination against flu, which has a faster mutation rate than covid.**

* https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55659820

Latest research suggests two doses of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine still protect people from getting ill with the India variant.

Early lab results and real life data suggest the Pfizer vaccine can protect against the new variants, although slightly less effectively.

Data from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine team suggests it protects just as well against the Kent/UK variant. It offers less protection against the South Africa variant - but should still protect against severe illness.

One recent study suggests the Brazilian variant may resist antibodies in people who've recovered from Covid before.

Some early results suggest the Moderna vaccine is effective against the South Africa variant, although the immune response triggered may be weaker and shorter-lived.

** Both viruses depend on a viral RNA polymerase to express their proteins, but only SARS-CoV-2 has a proofreading mechanism, which results in a low mutation rate compared to influenza. and A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV

wilsontown wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:38 pm

Just a thought - presumably there must be an optimum configuration for the spike protein such that the spreadability of the virus is maximized. At that point, assuming there is a vaccine that is effective against the optimal variant, any mutations that enable vaccine escape should also make the virus less efficient at spreading?

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:29 pm

What do you get out of writing this nonsense?

jdc wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:20 pm

Note that a mutation that enhances one viral property, such as binding to a receptor, can reduce another property (evolutionary trade-offs innit),

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:38 pm

Hence my pinball analogy. It's mostly going down similar paths all the time. It's not a highly chaotic pinball machine with countless paths.

It's had long enough and infected enough millions to show what it's capable of. Which is nothing too different to the original strain.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:44 pm

Marco Cavaleri, the EMA’s head of vaccine strategy, said that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna to which the EMA says he didn't mean that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna without saying what he might have actually meant.

tom p wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:48 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:44 pm

Marco Cavaleri, the EMA’s head of vaccine strategy, said that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna to which the EMA says he didn't mean that it could be worth dropping AstraZeneca including for the over-60s in favour of others like Pfizer and Moderna without saying what he might have actually meant.

Do you have access to the original text in La Stampa? I'd be interested to read it

In what could be a harbinger for Broadway’s post-Covid protocol, Springsteen on Broadway has announced that audience members must be vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine, a policy no doubt disappointing to the many Canadians and Europeans who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Producers of Springsteen on Broadway announced Tuesday night that the show, which will begin performances on June 26 to become Broadway’s first post-shutdown arrival, will require the FDA-approved vaccines. To date, the FDA has approved vaccines by Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:00 pm

In what could be a harbinger for Broadway’s post-Covid protocol, Springsteen on Broadway has announced that audience members must be vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine, a policy no doubt disappointing to the many Canadians and Europeans who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Producers of Springsteen on Broadway announced Tuesday night that the show, which will begin performances on June 26 to become Broadway’s first post-shutdown arrival, will require the FDA-approved vaccines. To date, the FDA has approved vaccines by Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson.

https://deadline.com/2021/06/springstee ... 234777046/