Vaccine passports

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Sciolus
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Sciolus » Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:48 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:16 pm
I'm not sure why we should assume that almost all the people admitted to hospital for another reason would be vaccinated. Perhaps they might if they are older. Alternatively, people who are in hospital may be those who in general aren't disposed to look after their health. Or maybe they just resemble the population in general.
I was making a handwavy point so I didn't worry too much. On reflection, though, and as shpalman points out, it's quite sensitive to exact numbers so we really need proper data. Shame we don't actually know how many unvaccinated people there are in the UK.

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:08 pm

Italy is essentially making vaccination* obligatory for the over-50's

Well, vaccination will be obligatory for over-50's who aren't in work. The reinforced "Super" Green Pass (vaccination or recovery, but not a negative test) will be necessary for over-50's at work.

For "personal services"* and to enter shops (or shopping centres?), a normal Green Pass (vaccination, recovery, or a negative test) will be required. (From the context it's not clear but it hardly makes sense if this applies only to the over-50's so I suppose this is for all of us.)

Not sure how the obligation will be enforced or what penalties will be applied, to the over-50's who aren't in work and aren't in the habit of doing anything which currently requires a Green Pass.

* - things like hairdresser/beautician etc.

You can see at https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/ and https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/ ... ni-italia/ at there are about 1.2 million in the 50-59 age group who haven't had even a single dose yet. Only about 65,000 officially have a recent enough infection for it to count for a Green Pass. The IFR in that age range** is, what, 0.3%? So there'd be about 3,500 deaths.

60-69: 700,000 unvaccinated; only 30,700 official recently recovered. IFR about 1%. So, 6,600 deaths.

70-79: 500,000 unvaccinated; 14,000 official recently survived. IFR about 3%. 14,500 deaths.

80-89: 130,000 unvaccinated; 7,000 survivors. IFR about 10%. 12,500 deaths.

So I make that about 37,000 people just assuming that the covids won't find them or if they do they'll be fine who will turn out to be wrong about that. This compares to 138,000 total official deaths from covid so far. Actually it's roughly how many people have died of covid since the middle of March here.

** - this is of course the original-variant IFR; once we have good data on the Omicron [C,I]FR in the unvaccinated, it won't really matter anymore.

So we could estimate a lower number of deaths, because "Omicron is less severe" and because people with older, or indeed completely undetected, infections might still have useful antibodies even if for a different variant.

Or it won't matter because we'll compel them to get vaccinated and even as 90% of them don't die they'll still f.cking complain about it.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:19 pm

So it's a €100 fine for unvaccinated unemployed over-50s, but €500-€1600 for any found at work without a valid Super Green Pass.

220,000 new cases in Italy today.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Brightonian » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:40 am

5% of patients hosptalised in France have fake Covid passes: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/malad ... 06493.html

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:08 am

First-dose vaccinations quadruple in Quebec ahead of restrictions at liquor and cannabis stores

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/mobile/firs ... -1.5731327
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:57 am

molto tricky

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:12 pm

Don't discriminate against the unvaccinated, Amnesty International tells SARS-CoV-2
Human rights group Amnesty International urged COVID to change its CFR and hospitalization rates to avoid discrimination against unvaccinated people.

Amnesty International asked for the provision of lower rates, to allow everyone to continue to go to work and to use public transport "without everything having to shut down because of the unvaccinated population", the group said in a statement issued late on Saturday.

"The government must continue to ensure that the entire population can enjoy its fundamental rights, such as the right to education, work and medical treatment, with particular regard to non-COVID patients who need urgent surgery," it said.
Especially as regards to "medical treatment, with particular regard to non-COVID patients who need urgent surgery," the vaccinated majority are having their treatment compromised by the hospitals filling up with unvaccinated morons. Not being vaccinated is a choice, and a bad one at that, not a protected characteristic.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Brightonian » Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:35 pm

Achievement unlocked: I have, at last, just now, been asked to produce ID along with my Covid pass. It's in a local pub. (But then I rarely go to pubs - last time was six weeks ago.)

Last time I was in this local pub was maybe three months ago, when the barperson was very casual about things. This time a different barperson came up to me when I hadn't even got through the door, demanded my Covid pass, scanned it in, and asked for my ID which she looked at carefully.

I might have a second pint as this is a large, airy pub and it's just me and the barperson here.

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:41 pm

I saw an argument that vaccine passports protect the unvaccinated. Omichron is infecting the vaccinated but most infections are not severe and the prevalence of infection is very high due to its increased transmissibility. Any crowded venue is likely to have infected people. By keeping out the unvaccinated, who are at greater risk, vaccine passports are protecting the un vaccinated.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:53 pm

Of course it is. Including the small number of unvaccinated people who'll never be able to be vaccinated for health reasons. Without vaccine passports their options are basically permanent semi-isolation or permanently risking death.

The main benefit to vaccinated folk is to stop healthcare systems getting clogged up with sick morons. If covid ends up endemic that might not be so much of a risk anyway.

Of course, we already e.g. refuse to give new livers to people who won't stop drinking. Anyone refusing the vaccine is refusing the first line of covid treatment, so why should they be allowed in for the rest of it? They can go and enjoy their precious freedom to choose at home.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by lpm » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:00 pm

This is a good example, BoaF.

We all know, really, that the unvaxxed are entitled to full healthcare and it would be immoral to send them home.

But we like to temporarily wish they could be denied treatment or other normal liberties.

Then we return to our basic principles and accept that these morons must be given the normal rights of any citizen.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:05 pm

For sure. I'm exaggerating a tad there.

But I think it's ok to use vaccination status as one factor amongst many if they do have to prioritise who to treat in a future wave. They already consider age and other health, and vaccination status is a part of the latter that also affects future prognosis.

If it's ok for doctors to discuss sending people home for being ancient or having emphysema, I don't see why it should be taboo to discuss sending them home for being unvaccinated.

Hopefully, though, the NHS won't arrive at that kind of crisis again.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by lpm » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:18 pm

To be honest, I think the NHS hasn't a hope of surviving this.

We weren't prepared to give it the necessary resources before the pandemic. There's now a permanent new disease on the scene that requires extra resources. And an older population. And immigrant healthcare workers driven out of the country.

But the minimal increase in taxes in April is causing Johnson and his govt all sorts of headaches, due to the "family cost of living crisis". We simply won't sacrifice our holidays, cars and consumer treats for better healthcare. I think it's a fantasy that Starmer's government will be able to redirect resources into the NHS.

When the NHS struggles, as it will for the next couple of decades, there's always going to be a large proportion of voters who want to axe healthcare for the "undeserving" and who'll pay to jump the queues or reserve healthcare resource for themselves. Private hospitals are the future, and every surgeon/nurse who's lured into doing hip replacements in a private hospital is lost to socialised healthcare.

To be blunt, I suspect the NHS model has run its course. We're now too old and too unhealthy a population.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Grumble » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:30 pm

Back on the subject of vaccine passports, France will require vaccination to enter sporting arenas, including the athletes/sporters. Guess Novax has one less title to defend.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Gfamily » Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:25 pm

Tragic* case of singer deliberately getting Covid so that she can get the pass.
But dies
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60050996

*I understand that this is the correct use of the word 'tragic' in respect of classical theatre
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:20 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:25 pm
Tragic* case of singer deliberately getting Covid so that she can get the pass.
But dies
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60050996

*I understand that this is the correct use of the word 'tragic' in respect of classical theatre
If you allow natural infection as a Green Pass type of criterion, you incentivize people to get infected.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:38 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:20 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:25 pm
Tragic* case of singer deliberately getting Covid so that she can get the pass.
But dies
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60050996

*I understand that this is the correct use of the word 'tragic' in respect of classical theatre
If you allow natural infection as a Green Pass type of criterion, you incentivize people to get infected.
Natural infection has to give a valid Green Pass as long as there are rules for the minimum time between infection and vaccination.

Choosing natural infection instead of vaccination is an extremely stupid thing to do for the vast majority of the population.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:35 am

"We don't have time to check the Green Passes of everyone who comes in to buy cigarettes" claim the Italian tobacconists who had nothing better to do than chat to TV news journalists this morning.

But while I enjoy pissing off smokers even more than I enjoy pissing off the unvaccinated, we are definitely getting into the territory where the people who are following the rules properly are subject to more inconvenience than the ones who are just going to ignore them.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:32 pm

No heart transplant for unvaxxed patient needing new heart
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/brigha ... accinated/

Policy is consistent with requirements for other vaccines like flu:
Dr. Arthur Caplan, the head of medical ethics at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, explains that being vaccinated is necessary for this type of procedure.

"Post any transplant, kidney, heart whatever, your immune system is shut off," Caplan said. "The flu could kill you, a cold could kill you, COVID could kill you. The organs are scarce, we are not going to distribute them to someone who has a poor chance of living when others who are vaccinated have a better chance post-surgery of surviving."
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