Vaccine passports

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
sheldrake
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:46 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:30 am
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:32 am
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:45 pm

We will see lockdowns every winter, as the virus mutates and we have to protect the NHS.
The IFR for unvaccinated people who catch it the first time is order of 0.25-0.75% (less than your lifetime risk of dying from lots of other common, preventable causes). This then drops significantly after you've survived it once, unlike flu but similar to measles.

Given the low mutation rate, don't you expect increasing numbers of people in the population to acquire long-lasting immunity from surviving the disease even if vaccine protection doesn't last so long?
I think the IFR for Delta is much higher, probably twice as high, but I couldnt find good figures.I don't know how long infection acquired immunity lasts from Delta, but we know that people can be re infected multiple times. Every time there is the risk of organ damage and Long Covid.
I think Delta is about twice as contagious but I haven't seen data suggesting it's more dangerous to the individual who catches it.

Reinfection multiple times by Covid is *extremely* rare, and second infections are much less dangerous.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 9/june2021

The Israeli data so far suggests that people who had already survived Covid were much better protected than those who had been double-jabbed with Pfizer (by a factor of around 15-20 iirc)

This is because it's mutation rate is much lower than a disease like flu and the kind of immunity you acquire by surviving infection is more akin to the kind of immunity those of us who had measles or chicken pox acquired
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/

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Woodchopper
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:50 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:46 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:30 am
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:32 am


The IFR for unvaccinated people who catch it the first time is order of 0.25-0.75% (less than your lifetime risk of dying from lots of other common, preventable causes). This then drops significantly after you've survived it once, unlike flu but similar to measles.

Given the low mutation rate, don't you expect increasing numbers of people in the population to acquire long-lasting immunity from surviving the disease even if vaccine protection doesn't last so long?
I think the IFR for Delta is much higher, probably twice as high, but I couldnt find good figures.I don't know how long infection acquired immunity lasts from Delta, but we know that people can be re infected multiple times. Every time there is the risk of organ damage and Long Covid.
I think Delta is about twice as contagious but I haven't seen data suggesting it's more dangerous to the individual who catches it.

Reinfection multiple times by Covid is *extremely* rare, and second infections are much less dangerous.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 9/june2021

The Israeli data so far suggests that people who had already survived Covid were much better protected than those who had been double-jabbed with Pfizer (by a factor of around 15-20 iirc)

This is because it's mutation rate is much lower than a disease like flu and the kind of immunity you acquire by surviving infection is more akin to the kind of immunity those of us who had measles or chicken pox acquired
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/
Yes, I agree.

There was some concern that Delta resulted in more severe illness but as far as I remember that hasn't been confirmed.

sheldrake
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:20 am

I am vaccinated and I don't believe in 'depopulation' conspiracy theories or nonsense about 5G. I do think there has been quite a lot of scaremongering by govt. officials and in the press though

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by lpm » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:41 am

I think it was valid scaremongering at the start. Necessary to jolt an entire population into change. Not at all easy given the huge inertia.

But the scaremongering was always misaligned. Month after month I had to remind highly educated people on this forum about the age-risk gradient.

And now we as a society is struggling to turn the scaremongering off. The press is addicted to doom stories. People have been trained to worry about sabre tooths, so still jump at shadows after sabre tooths have gone extinct. Unvaxxed-Covid is extinct for the vaxxed, yet the vaxxed still attune themselves to protecting against the old disease. The scaremongering directed at schools and children is particularly shameful, damaging education and causing childhood anxiety.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

sheldrake
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:10 am

I think severe measures were necessary until we were confident about the value IFR, but once I understood that IFR suggested a lower risk of death than driving accidents or heart disease from bad diet, I began to see the measures as disproportionate and began to notice Chris Whitty and others openly stating statistical untruths in public at times. I want the vaccines available to everybody who wants them, but I consider vaccine passports downright creepy and I do still suspect that there are some bad actors exploiting the panic to drive through social changes (to say nothing of the corruption evidenced by members of the cabinet).

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 18, 2021 5:54 pm

Student unions are going further than government guidelines, in an attempt to avoid virus outbreaks like those of last year

Meanwhile as I mentioned in another thread just now, the news that the Green Pass will be obligatory for work in Italy as of the middle of next month has caused vaccination bookings to triple across most regions, although obviously not necessarily amongst the older people who are at more risk and maybe not so much in the south either.
molto tricky

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Brightonian
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Brightonian » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:50 pm

Am in France at the moment and every café and restaurant has required me to produce my "passe sanitaire". At first I assumed my app's QR code would not be understood by whatever French app is used to read it, instead simply scrolling through the ccertificate detsils on my app that states two doses and they just accepted tbat. However, I then experimented by just presenting my QR code to their scanner and it worked. So unless the French app just accepts anything, I suppose the UK, French and many other countries' certificates are recognised between all of them.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:54 pm

Good news - my mum's hoping to visit me soon and she'll need it.

Do you have to scan the qr code with a special app, or can you just use the browser?
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Gfamily
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Gfamily » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:49 pm

Brightonian wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:50 pm
Am in France at the moment and every café and restaurant has required me to produce my "passe sanitaire". At first I assumed my app's QR code would not be understood by whatever French app is used to read it, instead simply scrolling through the ccertificate detsils on my app that states two doses and they just accepted tbat. However, I then experimented by just presenting my QR code to their scanner and it worked. So unless the French app just accepts anything, I suppose the UK, French and many other countries' certificates are recognised between all of them.
In mid July, we were able to upload our UK generated QR codes (from the NHS App) onto the TousAntiCovid app, and this generated a French QR code. However, for the first few days the Pass Sanitaire app wouldn't accept them. About a week later though it seemed to work with no problem.

There's a very useful website called the local that gives quite comprehensive advice for Brits living in France and those who visit them (one of a range of different country versions accessible versions thelocal.com)
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:54 pm
Do you have to scan the qr code with a special app, or can you just use the browser?
In France, people check your code on your French app with their devices.
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:39 pm

In Scotland, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has urged the Scottish Human Rights Commission (SHRC) to investigate plans for coronavirus vaccine passports.
The move comes amid fears that the scheme could see some Scots “systematically excluded” from places and events.
Why, are they prevented from getting the vaccine for some reason?
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:20 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:38 pm
We're at risk of shortages here in Italy due to the law, which comes into effect in a couple of days' time, which will require everyone to have a Green Pass if they want to go to work. Lots of HGV drivers don't have one, especially those who come from eastern Europe and have had the non-EMA-approved Sputnik.
(People are apparently finally getting the jab now at the last minute and are then unhappy to be told that the Green Pass isn't earned until two weeks after the first dose, I mean, it's not like they haven't months since vaccination was open to all age groups or several weeks notice of this particular application of the Green Pass. But better late than never and the price of rapid tests is being kept reasonable.)
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:25 pm

Apparently a rule about workplace Green Passes is that the employer isn't allowed to save the QR code - this is exactly what the Politecnico is doing, though, and honestly it's better than having queues while Green Passes are checked every time anyone happens to walk into one of the many campuses or buildings, although I wonder if they check at all. Certainly there should be some spot-checking of students going on, and I haven't seen or heard about any of that.
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:35 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:39 pm
In Scotland, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has urged the Scottish Human Rights Commission (SHRC) to investigate plans for coronavirus vaccine passports.
The move comes amid fears that the scheme could see some Scots “systematically excluded” from places and events.
Why, are they prevented from getting the vaccine for some reason?
Stupidity.

It is extremely unethical to discriminate against people due to IQ.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:36 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:25 pm
Apparently a rule about workplace Green Passes is that the employer isn't allowed to save the QR code - this is exactly what the Politecnico is doing, though, and honestly it's better than having queues while Green Passes are checked every time anyone happens to walk into one of the many campuses or buildings, although I wonder if they check at all. Certainly there should be some spot-checking of students going on, and I haven't seen or heard about any of that.
Maybe you should check them.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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headshot
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by headshot » Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:53 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:35 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:39 pm
In Scotland, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has urged the Scottish Human Rights Commission (SHRC) to investigate plans for coronavirus vaccine passports.
The move comes amid fears that the scheme could see some Scots “systematically excluded” from places and events.
Why, are they prevented from getting the vaccine for some reason?
Stupidity.

It is extremely unethical to discriminate against people due to IQ.
Thou dost protest too much?

Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Herainestold » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:24 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:53 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:35 pm
Stupidity.

It is extremely unethical to discriminate against people due to IQ.
Thou dost protest too much?
;)
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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