Vaccine passports

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Millennie Al
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:16 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:16 pm
Have you entertained the possibility that reports of the NHS struggling are because of supply and staff absence issues
You mean to suggest it's caused by Brexit?
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Lew Dolby
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Lew Dolby » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:14 am

. . . or ten years of a tory government.
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:11 am

Dr Katherine Henderson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said emergency departments in the UK are in a “terrible place”.
We’re already struggling to cope. This is not something that’s coming in the next couple of months. We’re already in a terrible place where we have got large queues of ambulances with vulnerable people waiting in those ambulances to be offloaded into departments and other patients at home waiting to be picked up by the ambulance.

That’s the thing that really worries me; that these are patients who have not yet received treatment that we don’t necessarily know what’s wrong with them that we’re really struggling to get into our healthcare facilities to then work out what we need to do.
We didn’t go into the pandemic in a great place in emergency care. We didn’t have enough beds then. The problem is that things are worse at the moment so we need everybody to be as careful with the healthcare resources as they possibly can be, and try and minimise the need for healthcare resources.

So if we’ve got 8,000 patients in hospital who are suffering Covid, if we didn’t have those patients that would be another 8,000 beds in the system.

So every bed that gets filled by a patient with Covid in a sense is in a hospital bed with a potentially avoidable disease, and that’s what we need people to focus on if we want to get through the elective backlog.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:38 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:16 pm
headshot wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:46 pm


The NHS, or at the very least, parts of it, are very much not coping adequately with the pressures added by having to deal with Covid and Flu, health leaders are sounding alarm bells because they’re concerned that the struggle to cope will tip into an inability to cope.
Have you entertained the possibility that reports of the NHS struggling are because of supply and staff absence issues rather than massive numbers of additional people requiring treatment (referencing our mortality level which jumped up to.. 2009 norms at the peak).
"At the peak"? The peak in April 2020 was a weekly death rate of roughly 22,000 in England and Wales. Which was the last year in which the death rate was 22,000 per week for the whole year? If you think that needs correcting for the change in population size and age structure, then do it.
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sheldrake
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by sheldrake » Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:18 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:38 am
sheldrake wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:16 pm
headshot wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:46 pm


The NHS, or at the very least, parts of it, are very much not coping adequately with the pressures added by having to deal with Covid and Flu, health leaders are sounding alarm bells because they’re concerned that the struggle to cope will tip into an inability to cope.
Have you entertained the possibility that reports of the NHS struggling are because of supply and staff absence issues rather than massive numbers of additional people requiring treatment (referencing our mortality level which jumped up to.. 2009 norms at the peak).
"At the peak"? The peak in April 2020 was a weekly death rate of roughly 22,000 in England and Wales. Which was the last year in which the death rate was 22,000 per week for the whole year? If you think that needs correcting for the change in population size and age structure, then do it.
Deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test peaked at around 1400 per day in January 2021 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths (we're currently running way below that)

Hospitalisations peaked in January 2021 at just over 33,000 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare (we're currently running below a 5th of that peak)

People told to self isolate peaked in July 2021 at over 670,000 people asked to in a single week (in January when hospitalisations and deaths peaked it was only jus over 200,000. We are still running at around 130,000 self-isolation orders per week, which is going to have a massive impact on NHS absency rates disproportionate to the current number of people needing treatment https://stats.app.covid19.nhs.uk/#test-results

Another example of the mitigation being worse than the original problem. Panic is a dangerous thing.

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:04 pm

A pingdemic is what you have instead of an honest lockdown. It seems to have worked last time to bring cases down and it might be working again. And certainly better than letting health care workers infect people who are in the hospital for non covid reasons.

Meanwhile in Scotland https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-59034619
Mr Montgomery rejected a suggestion that the numbers being turned away was a sign the scheme was working properly in keeping unvaccinated people away from higher risk settings.
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sheldrake
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:12 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:04 pm
It seems to have worked last time to bring cases down
Let's just walk through the evidence for that, eh?

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:48 am

sheldrake wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:12 am
shpalman wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:04 pm
It seems to have worked last time to bring cases down
Let's just walk through the evidence for that, eh?
Of course there isn't any evidence that this is what brought cases down, but something brought cases down and something seems to be bringing them down again. So there's data which needs to be explained if we're to have any chance of guessing what's going to happen next.

It's either that or the model of inhomogeneous spread such that covid quickly infects a cluster within a tightly-connected social group but an infected group has looser contact with as-yet uninfected groups. It can't have been overall population herd immunity back in July or else you wouldn't have just had another peak, but rather it's herd immunity within groups.
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bob sterman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by bob sterman » Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:58 am

sheldrake wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:12 am
shpalman wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:04 pm
It seems to have worked last time to bring cases down
Let's just walk through the evidence for that, eh?
Yes - as for lots of things we don't have an RCT.

Just as we don't have evidence that it was the parachutes that saved people from major trauma related to gravitational challenge...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC300808/

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:08 am

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:58 am
sheldrake wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:12 am
shpalman wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:04 pm
It seems to have worked last time to bring cases down
Let's just walk through the evidence for that, eh?
Yes - as for lots of things we don't have an RCT.

Just as we don't have evidence that it was the parachutes that saved people from major trauma related to gravitational challenge...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC300808/
You're not helping.
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Trinucleus
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Trinucleus » Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:15 pm

We're of to a theatre in Manchester tomorrow.

They ask us to show proof of vaccination or a negative test at the door

We don't have to, obviously.......... but they don't have to let us in

sheldrake
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:38 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:48 am

Of course there isn't any evidence that this is what brought cases down, but something brought cases down and something seems to be bringing them down again. So there's data which needs to be explained if we're to have any chance of guessing what's going to happen next.

It's either that or the model of inhomogeneous spread such that covid quickly infects a cluster within a tightly-connected social group but an infected group has looser contact with as-yet uninfected groups.
Or people voluntarily changing their behaviour before isolation orders go out, or testing errors, or some combination. What technique would you suggest to tease them apart?

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:06 pm

Well, for example, we saw recently how testing errors were picked up eventually and then just carried on anyway.

People voluntarily changing their behaviour is a bit harder to pick up if it requires self-reporting to surveys (and not, for example, phone mobility data) but it would support mandating that changed behaviour if (a) it works and (b) most people are going to do it anyway.
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Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Herainestold » Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:01 pm

Do vaccine passports work? The COVID-19 task force has produced an analysis on introducing COVID certification for mass events for the proposed five-month Plan B period. The analysis found COVID certification would reduce transmission at these events by 40-45 percent, but warned that because only 2-13 percent of overall community transmission takes place in venues covered by the certification scheme, there would only be a “moderate impact from reduced community transmission.” The figures suggest that certification would reduce overall community transmission by just 1-5 percent.
That is why we need something stronger than vaccine passports. Right now it looks like the Tories think even passports will be too damaging to the economy, so they are going to dither a while longer.
Data doubts: Vaccine passports would have a “high impact” on the economy and could cause “wider impacts” exacerbating Britain’s supply chain crisis, the assessment found. The key line of the document concluded that certification was “likely to have a positive impact in reducing transmission, although it is not possible to say accurately by how much.” The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith has got hold of a different paper this morning showing domestic vaccine passports would cost businesses in the events sector between £1.4 billion and £2.3 billion.
That’s the problem for ministers: Plan A is seeing a huge spike in cases and rising hospitalizations, Plan B doesn’t appear to be enough to stop it and will smash the economy, while Plan C — harsher measures — is something no one wants to think about.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/lond ... ter-boost/
Dark days lie ahead.

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lpm
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:22 pm

Oh ffs.

Plan A is seeing a slight bulge in cases, still below the third wave peak, and possibly already heading down again.

Some moron describes this slight upwards curve in the oscillation as "a huge spike in cases".

And obviously IDG laps it up.
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:44 am

Well, as long as Christmas is safe.
You can shove your climate crisis up your arse!

Take thy beak from out my heart, and take thy form from off my door.

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:39 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:44 am
Well, as long as Christmas is safe.
There will be a Christmas.

- the White Witch, probably.

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by bagpuss » Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:13 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:44 am
Well, as long as Christmas is safe.
Mum's just booked her travel to come to us for Christmas so I think that's guaranteed that it's cancelled again.

Herainestold
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:19 am

bagpuss wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:13 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:44 am
Well, as long as Christmas is safe.
Mum's just booked her travel to come to us for Christmas so I think that's guaranteed that it's cancelled again.
I hope its not. People need to be able to see each other in person.
Dark days lie ahead.

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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by headshot » Thu Oct 28, 2021 6:54 am

bagpuss wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:13 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:44 am
Well, as long as Christmas is safe.
Mum's just booked her travel to come to us for Christmas so I think that's guaranteed that it's cancelled again.
We’ve booked our flights and Air BnB to visit Frau HS’s family in Dresden for Chrimbo. I hope we’ll get to leave plague island…

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:36 pm

Austria said only those vaccinated or recovered from coronavirus would be allowed to frequent restaurants, hotels and cultural venues
Among the rules to be introduced in Austria are barring the unvaccinated from hotels, events of more than 25 people and, importantly for a country that is a winter sports hotspot, ski lifts. There will be a four-week transition period in which a first vaccination plus a PCR test will grant admission to places where the unvaccinated will be banned, Reuters reports. After that, only the fully vaccinated and those who have recently recovered from a coronavirus infection will be let in. While those dining out will have to show they have been vaccinated, the waiters serving them will not.
Also from the live blog,
The German state of Saxony has announced sweeping new curbs for people who have not been vaccinated against Covid-19 or recovered from the disease, AFP reports.

From Monday, access to indoor dining and other indoor events will be limited to those who are fully vaccinated or can show proof of recovery, local government minister Petra Koepping told a news conference in Dresden.

“We have not managed to build a protective wall of vaccinated people over the past few weeks and months,” Koepping said.

The new rules would mark the toughest state-wide restrictions in Germany against non-inoculated people. Only children as well as those who cannot receive jabs for medical reasons will be exempt.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 08, 2021 6:18 pm

Suddenly there's been whole loads of people queuing up outside vaccination hubs in Austria.

Germany is also considering an Italy-style set of Green Pass rules, since their case rate has soared exponentially up to more than 200/100,000/week (the UK passed 200/100,000/week at the end of June and has been between 300-500 for most of the time since then).
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:44 am

Guardian live blog
Italy has clamped down on protests against the country’s Covid-19 health pass.

The protests, at times violent, have become more prolific since Italy made the pass mandatory for all workers in October.

Demonstrations will no longer be able to take place in city or town centres.

“For weeks the so-called ‘no pass’ protests have been paralysing the centres of many cities every Saturday, creating inconvenience for citizens and shop-keepers, as well as creating crowds of unvaccinated people,” said Carlo Sibilia, undersecretary at the interior minister.

Protests in the northern city of Trieste are believed to have triggered a surge in coronavirus infections.

There was also controversy earlier this month after protesters marched through the streets of the city of Novara wearing striped bibs while comparing themselves to prisoners of Nazi concentration camps.

In October, a demonstration in Rome turned violent after neo-fascist group militants ransacked the headquarters of a trade union.

The so-called ‘green pass’, which shows evidence of vaccination, immunisation or a negative test, is required by Italians when entering their workplaces and for dining inside at bars or restaurants, travelling by plane or long-distance train as well as entering museums, theatres, cinemas, nightclubs and stadiums.
tl;dr a tiny minoronity has been ruining it for everyone and we're sick of their sh.t.
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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine passports

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:49 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:36 pm
... many countries accept that a previous infection does confer some degree of immunity, by giving those recovered from the virus a 6-month Green Pass or only requiring that they get one dose of a two-dose regime, for example. However, their approach to the waning of efficacy of the vaccine is not to limit the validity of a Green Pass obtained by vaccination (currently 12 months after the second dose) even as they call up the old and fragile for an extra dose.
Emmanuel Macron has... announced that many citizens will need a third vaccination for a valid health pass from next month.
A third dose is currently available to those aged over 65 or with medical conditions that make them vulnerable, such as heart or respiratory problems. But only about half of those eligible have booked a third injection.

To accelerate this, Macron said that booster shots will be extended to those aged 50 and over from early December. Those aged over 65 would from 15 December have to give proof of a Covid booster shot in order to maintain their health passes.
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