"Vaccines are wearing off"

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Herainestold
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Herainestold » Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:51 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:10 pm
So if I'm understanding correctly, they are indeed, in common parlance, "wearing off"?
Yup. The Israeli data is sobering.

It looks like a Christmas lockdown to me.
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lpm
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by lpm » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:41 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:02 pm
Infections do matter for breeding new variants, which as we've already seen this year is a major risk, especially if we end up with a vaccine-defeating one. Then we'd be back to square one. Large numbers of virus circulating in huge numbers of individuals in partially-vaccinated populations are exactly what we don't want.
Sorry to have to break it to you, but there's a global pandemic. A novel virus has become endemic and over the coming decades 7.7 billion homo sapiens are going to be exposed to it on multiple occasions, and each infected person spews out 10 billion new viruses at the peak of infectiousness. Scientist have technical language for this, calling it a f.ck load of viruses, but we'd don't need to get into this jargon - suffice it to say basically an infinite number of viruses will have the opportunity to find successful variations.

What happens in one god forsaken island of idiots over a few months is pretty irrelevant. For decades there will be large numbers of cases in partially-vaccinated populations in every part of the globe.

All possible variants are going to happen. There's a good chance they already have, with only a handful being good enough to get established.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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lpm
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by lpm » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:48 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:36 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:10 pm
So if I'm understanding correctly, they are indeed, in common parlance, "wearing off"?
Good thread here: https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/14 ... 78860?s=21
The tweet down the bottom says:
The authors explain that the data about symptoms in the national db isn't reliable enough.
Bases on that, I think the analysis of waning Vaccine Effectiveness for symptomatic infection in Israel can be disregarded at this point
https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1430291436172455939

So I don't think BOAF is correct to say "Controlling for age and demographics is pretty easy analysis, by the way. The Israel study did that, and the results hold after accounting for the details of the rollout."
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Woodchopper
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:41 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:02 pm
Infections do matter for breeding new variants, which as we've already seen this year is a major risk, especially if we end up with a vaccine-defeating one. Then we'd be back to square one. Large numbers of virus circulating in huge numbers of individuals in partially-vaccinated populations are exactly what we don't want.
Sorry to have to break it to you, but there's a global pandemic. A novel virus has become endemic and over the coming decades 7.7 billion homo sapiens are going to be exposed to it on multiple occasions, and each infected person spews out 10 billion new viruses at the peak of infectiousness. Scientist have technical language for this, calling it a f.ck load of viruses, but we'd don't need to get into this jargon - suffice it to say basically an infinite number of viruses will have the opportunity to find successful variations.

What happens in one god forsaken island of idiots over a few months is pretty irrelevant. For decades there will be large numbers of cases in partially-vaccinated populations in every part of the globe.

All possible variants are going to happen. There's a good chance they already have, with only a handful being good enough to get established.
I agree.

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Woodchopper
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:03 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:54 pm
I'm finding it odd that these researchers are looking at infections. Obviously defenses wane against infections. But that's not the right metric for an endemic disease.

Protection is about protection from illness.

I'm expecting a young, healthy, vaccinated person like our dear BOAF to catch Covid a dozen times, possibly dying of a variant aged 94 on Lunar Base Alpha-4.

The point of the vaccines, and the subsequent re-priming of the immune system with each encounter with the strands of RNA, is to stop people being ill. What does it matter to you if you don't notice 6 of the infections, feel like you have a bit of a cold for 4, and feel feverish and flu like for 2? We live in a world of hostile viruses and illness is part of life and not dying early from any of them is the objective.

Everyone seems to be instinctively searching for the world of 2019. There's confusion about herd immunity, thinking of it in terms of making cases fizzle instead of making illness rarer and rarer. There's a huge over-ambition, futile hopes based on implicit scenarios of driving the virus to extinction, instead of realistic assessment of what coronaviruses, influenza viruses, noroviruses and all the rest are actually about.

The Israel study is more interesting because it looks at chance of illness. The results we want to see are hospitalisations per infection for people vaccinated in Jan vs people vaccinated in May - but obviously rollout per age cohorts will screw up easy analysis.
I agree, the key thing to worry about is if there are increasing numbers of hospital admissions among fully vaccinated people who are elderly, immuno compromised or have co-morbidities.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by lpm » Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:25 pm

The UK has 0.3m people in care homes.

Plus 3.3m over 80s and 1.2m CEV.

That's not a huge number for a 3rd dose programme, or an annual vaccination, or even six monthly.

Can add in 5.5m 70-79.

Any hint of wearing off and developed countries can easily reboost the protection for those at risk. The above groups accounted for 88% of deaths in pre-vaccine UK (a further 11% in 50-69 and At Risk, only 1% in the under 50s).
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:48 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:48 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:36 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:10 pm
So if I'm understanding correctly, they are indeed, in common parlance, "wearing off"?
Good thread here: https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/14 ... 78860?s=21
The tweet down the bottom says:
The authors explain that the data about symptoms in the national db isn't reliable enough.
Bases on that, I think the analysis of waning Vaccine Effectiveness for symptomatic infection in Israel can be disregarded at this point
https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1430291436172455939

So I don't think BOAF is correct to say "Controlling for age and demographics is pretty easy analysis, by the way. The Israel study did that, and the results hold after accounting for the details of the rollout."
I can see how that might invalidate the results for symptomatic infection, but not how it would invalidate the results for all infections (nor what I said about controlling for demographics), which also found waning immunity.

Have I missed something?
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bob sterman
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by bob sterman » Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:12 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:54 pm
I'm finding it odd that these researchers are looking at infections.
Yes - given that the ZOE COVID study collects data on symptoms it is indeed odd that do not report anything on this.

However, knowing about infections can tell you something about declining vaccine effectiveness. In fact some would argue that any study of vaccine effectiveness should include regular testing for asymptomatic infections.

Something you have argued previously on a number of occasions...
lpm wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:34 pm
Are the trials regularly testing their 30,000 volunteers? You want to get 95 cases, not 95 symptomatic cases. If there were 90 vaccinated people with unnoticeable infection of the upper respiratory tract, all 90 shedding RNA, then the routine testing should have detected RNA from all 90 even if only 5 of them ever noticed any symptoms.

Or is it that your cells can be churning out enough viruses to infect others but not enough to be detected by tests? That doesn't sound right. Maybe higher false negatives?

Or that the trials haven't been testing their volunteers regularly? Which would be wasteful when running a costly trial.
lpm wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:56 pm
Reading about it, there doesn't seem to be any sign that Moderna routinely tests their 30,000 volunteers. They just keep diaries, are asked to notify the moment they got a temperature, have a few contacts over the phone.

Which sounds mad to me. Why the f.ck wouldn't you just test them once a week? 4,300 tests per day is a trivial number and expense. Half the battle with this virus is working out how asymptomatic cases behave. It means we have no evidence of asymptomatic cases in either the placebo group or the actual group.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:58 pm


Herainestold
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Herainestold » Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:01 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:58 pm
A good thread on the subject:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/143272 ... 83106?s=21
Trevor Bedford
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31 Aug
Even if protection against severe outcomes remains robust, observed waning suggests that boosters will be necessary to reduce circulation. Delta has generated a late summer wave, but steady state is likely a winter "COVID season" with vaccination recommended beforehand. 14/14
Vaccination does little to reduce virus circulation, it is very good at reducing severe outcomes. Waning immunity will occur just as the winter COVID season gets going. We will see how well the protection against hospitalization and death works then.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Woodchopper
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:47 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:01 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:58 pm
A good thread on the subject:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/143272 ... 83106?s=21
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
·
31 Aug
Even if protection against severe outcomes remains robust, observed waning suggests that boosters will be necessary to reduce circulation. Delta has generated a late summer wave, but steady state is likely a winter "COVID season" with vaccination recommended beforehand. 14/14
Vaccination does little to reduce virus circulation, it is very good at reducing severe outcomes. Waning immunity will occur just as the winter COVID season gets going. We will see how well the protection against hospitalization and death works then.
Vaccination significantly reduces circulation. Fewer vaccinated people are infected and the viral load drops quicker if they are. Vaccination is the main reason why UK case numbers have been steady despite there being no restrictions.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 02, 2021 11:57 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Sep 02, 2021 4:47 am
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:01 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:58 pm
A good thread on the subject:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/143272 ... 83106?s=21
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
·
31 Aug
Even if protection against severe outcomes remains robust, observed waning suggests that boosters will be necessary to reduce circulation. Delta has generated a late summer wave, but steady state is likely a winter "COVID season" with vaccination recommended beforehand. 14/14
Vaccination does little to reduce virus circulation, it is very good at reducing severe outcomes. Waning immunity will occur just as the winter COVID season gets going. We will see how well the protection against hospitalization and death works then.
Vaccination significantly reduces circulation. Fewer vaccinated people are infected and the viral load drops quicker if they are. Vaccination is the main reason why UK case numbers have been steady despite there being no restrictions.
You could make a case for that pre Delta. Not anymore. This is all hand wavey stuff, is there any hard data for transmission efficacy with Delta?
Viral load does drop quicker, but most transmission takes place in the couple of days when viral load is at maximum. If vaccination was reasonably effective at limiting transmission, we wouldn't be in this third wave now.
Don't get me wrong, vaccinations are essential to some sort of pseudo normal life, they are pretty good at keeping you out of hospital or the morgue.
Their effect on transmission is neglible at best.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:00 am

Well UK is 99% Delta, Portugal and doubtless other countries are 100%. So real-world data is de facto Delta data - and it does look like transmission is down.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Herainestold » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:47 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:00 am
Well UK is 99% Delta, Portugal and doubtless other countries are 100%. So real-world data is de facto Delta data - and it does look like transmission is down.
Do you think it is vaccination or some other factor (NPIs).?

I do note that Portugal is 12% more fully vaxxed than UK. Maybe the tipping point is somewhere in that 12%. But I remain sceptical.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:03 am

I would be very surprised if vaccination weren't noticeably reducing transmission, given its effect on reducing serious cases.

But then I'm just basing that on my intuitive assumption that more virus = worse case = more virus, so if people are getting less ill there's probably also less virus. Reality probably has more nuance than that, but I bet I'm basically right.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Herainestold » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:48 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:03 am
I would be very surprised if vaccination weren't noticeably reducing transmission, given its effect on reducing serious cases.

But then I'm just basing that on my intuitive assumption that more virus = worse case = more virus, so if people are getting less ill there's probably also less virus. Reality probably has more nuance than that, but I bet I'm basically right.
What appears intuitive can be wrong. That is why we need data.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:12 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:48 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:03 am
I would be very surprised if vaccination weren't noticeably reducing transmission, given its effect on reducing serious cases.

But then I'm just basing that on my intuitive assumption that more virus = worse case = more virus, so if people are getting less ill there's probably also less virus. Reality probably has more nuance than that, but I bet I'm basically right.
What appears intuitive can be wrong. That is why we need data.
There is a lot of data on a decrease in Delta transmission among people who are vaccinated. That data has been posted in this forum many times. If you'd like to see some for the UK you could start here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... 2-variants

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by tom p » Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:59 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:06 pm
I'm not sure I'd want to move to a moonbase, though. I bet the birdwatching there is rubbish.

I guess I could take up clanger-spotting.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Chris Preston » Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:22 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:12 am

There is a lot of data on a decrease in Delta transmission among people who are vaccinated. That data has been posted in this forum many times. If you'd like to see some for the UK you could start here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... 2-variants
They don't really want data. They just want to be able to do their best We'll all be rooned impression.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:57 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:12 am
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:48 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:03 am
I would be very surprised if vaccination weren't noticeably reducing transmission, given its effect on reducing serious cases.

But then I'm just basing that on my intuitive assumption that more virus = worse case = more virus, so if people are getting less ill there's probably also less virus. Reality probably has more nuance than that, but I bet I'm basically right.
What appears intuitive can be wrong. That is why we need data.
There is a lot of data on a decrease in Delta transmission among people who are vaccinated. That data has been posted in this forum many times. If you'd like to see some for the UK you could start here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... 2-variants
And if anyone is interested here’s another one: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 6/fulltext

Herainestold
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Herainestold » Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:09 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:12 am
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:48 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:03 am
I would be very surprised if vaccination weren't noticeably reducing transmission, given its effect on reducing serious cases.

But then I'm just basing that on my intuitive assumption that more virus = worse case = more virus, so if people are getting less ill there's probably also less virus. Reality probably has more nuance than that, but I bet I'm basically right.
What appears intuitive can be wrong. That is why we need data.
There is a lot of data on a decrease in Delta transmission among people who are vaccinated. That data has been posted in this forum many times. If you'd like to see some for the UK you could start here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... 2-variants
There is quite a bit of data but nothing specifically on transmission. With Delta there have been roughly equal number of cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated, which would suggest an advantage for vaccinated people as there are more vaccinated than unvaccinated.But still a lot of cases in the vaccinated.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:53 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:09 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:12 am
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:48 am


What appears intuitive can be wrong. That is why we need data.
There is a lot of data on a decrease in Delta transmission among people who are vaccinated. That data has been posted in this forum many times. If you'd like to see some for the UK you could start here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... 2-variants
There is quite a bit of data but nothing specifically on transmission. With Delta there have been roughly equal number of cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated, which would suggest an advantage for vaccinated people as there are more vaccinated than unvaccinated.But still a lot of cases in the vaccinated.
There is a lot of data specifically on Delta transmission.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:07 pm

Public Health England report on: DURATION OF PROTECTION OF COVID-19 VACCINES AGAINST CLINICAL DISEASE.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... isease.pdf

tl;dr waning protection against mild symptomatic infection after about 10 weeks after the second dose.

Little waning against hospital admissions among people under 65 and without serious morbidities.

But there is waning of protection against hospital admissions in people over 65 after 20 weeks, and among the over 80s after 10 weeks.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:10 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:07 pm
Public Health England report on: DURATION OF PROTECTION OF COVID-19 VACCINES AGAINST CLINICAL DISEASE.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... isease.pdf

tl;dr waning protection against mild symptomatic infection after about 10 weeks after the second dose.

Little waning against hospital admissions among people under 65 and without serious morbidities.

But there is waning of protection against hospital admissions in people over 65 after 20 weeks, and among the over 80s after 10 weeks.

Thread summarizing the above, and the need for a third booster vaccination, by the excellent John Burn Murdoch: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 74786?s=21

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:13 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:07 pm
Public Health England report on: DURATION OF PROTECTION OF COVID-19 VACCINES AGAINST CLINICAL DISEASE.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... isease.pdf

tl;dr waning protection against mild symptomatic infection after about 10 weeks after the second dose.

Little waning against hospital admissions among people under 65 and without serious morbidities.

But there is waning of protection against hospital admissions in people over 65 after 20 weeks, and among the over 80s after 10 weeks.
Thread summarizing the above by Shamez Ladhani of Public Health England: https://twitter.com/shamezladhani/statu ... 85221?s=21

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