"Vaccines are wearing off"

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purplehaze
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by purplehaze » Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:05 am

'Not having antibodies doesn't mean the vaccine has worn off, it just means the antibody part of the response is fading as per normal.'

Thank you for responding, that helps.

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Woodchopper
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:58 pm

purplehaze wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:05 am
'Not having antibodies doesn't mean the vaccine has worn off, it just means the antibody part of the response is fading as per normal.'

Thank you for responding, that helps.
Yes, and that is what I would have written as well.

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jimbob
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 01, 2021 11:27 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:18 am
You'll be getting a Pfizer. Unless you get a Moderna. No AZs for the booster program.

It will be six months after your second, i.e. in November.

Not having antibodies doesn't mean the vaccine has worn off, it just means the antibody part of the response is fading as per normal.
Yes there was a blogpost I saw about that from someone's link probably from here, explaining that.

Related to that, a friend has asked me to look at the numbers in this preprint, but I don't have time and it's pretty relevant to this subject

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21264260v1
The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha and Delta variant transmission
Abstract
Background Pre-Delta, vaccination reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from individuals infected despite vaccination, potentially via reducing viral loads. While vaccination still lowers the risk of infection, similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta question how much vaccination prevents onward transmission. Methods We performed a retrospective observational cohort study of contacts of SARS-CoV-2-infected index cases using contact testing data from England. We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the impact of index case and contact vaccination on transmission, and how this varies with Alpha and Delta variants (classified using S-gene detection/calendar trends) and time since second vaccination. Results 51,798/139,164(37.2%) contacts tested were PCR-positive. Two doses of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 vaccines in Alpha variant index cases independently reduced PCR-positivity in contacts (aOR, adjusted odds ratio vs. unvaccinated=0.18[95%CI 0.12-0.29] and 0.37[0.22-0.63] respectively). The Delta variant attenuated vaccine-associated reductions in transmission: two BNT162b2 doses reduced Delta transmission (aOR=0.35[0.26-0.48]), more than ChAdOx1 (aOR=0.64[0.57-0.72]; heterogeneity p<0.001). Variation in viral load (Ct values) explained only a modest proportion of vaccine-associated transmission reductions. Transmission reductions declined over time since second vaccination, for Delta reaching similar levels to unvaccinated individuals by 12 weeks for ChAdOx1 and attenuating substantially for BNT162b2. Protection from vaccination in contacts also declined in the 3 months after second vaccination. Conclusions Vaccination reduces transmission of Delta, but by less than the Alpha variant. The impact of vaccination decreased over time. Factors other than PCR-measured viral load are important in vaccine-associated transmission reductions. Booster vaccinations may help control transmission together with preventing infections.
As an aside, that's very long compared to the sort of Abstracts I'm used to seeing
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

purplehaze
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by purplehaze » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:44 pm

The letter in response to my negative response is very long and comprehensive, for which I'm also thankful.

It does implicitly emphasise that you should still follow current government advice and guidance on controlling the spread of the disease, including social distancing.

My nose and throat swabs are PCR.

My blood tests are CE marked by the MHRA.

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Vertigowooyay
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:27 am

Apologies for asking, but I’m not sufficiently able to articulate why the following is now being used to say ‘vaccines don’t work’ by the (seemingly growing) number of antivax people:

https://fullfact.org/health/economist-v ... on-status/

I know it has to be something about relative proportion of double vaccinated people overall and age/health demographics, but it’s just being thrown about as an ‘a-ha!’. I’d love to be able to push back on it* but what’s the best, simplest response?


* - I know pushing back on an argument from an antivaxxer is pointless, but someone else might read it and gain some sense.
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Woodchopper
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:32 am

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:27 am
Apologies for asking, but I’m not sufficiently able to articulate why the following is now being used to say ‘vaccines don’t work’ by the (seemingly growing) number of antivax people:

https://fullfact.org/health/economist-v ... on-status/

I know it has to be something about relative proportion of double vaccinated people overall and age/health demographics, but it’s just being thrown about as an ‘a-ha!’. I’d love to be able to push back on it* but what’s the best, simplest response?


* - I know pushing back on an argument from an antivaxxer is pointless, but someone else might read it and gain some sense.
Its a strawman argument by the antis. They are pretending that everyone said that vaccines were 100% effective and are now arguing against that strawman.

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Vertigowooyay
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:43 am

I get that, but it’s being able to push back against the chopped logic of ‘more people in hospital now have been double jabbed ergo the vaccine doesn’t work’ that I’m having trouble articulating
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discovolante
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by discovolante » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:56 am

I think the full fact article sort of alludes to it but isn't very clear...perhaps to say that if most people are vaccinated it follows that a greater proportion of people in hospital will be vaccinated simply because there are much more vaccinated people. The ones who are unvaccinated are (I think, correct me if I'm wrong) generally younger and lower risk so less likely to end up in hospital anyway. And overall numbers of people in hospital are (again I think, sorry I have not been watching the stats closely at all these days, for my own sanity) proportionally lower compared to the number of cases than when most people were unvaccinated.

I mean you may want to check all that against demographic data because as I say, I haven't been looking.

Ok that's maybe not very snappy but...
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shpalman
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:02 pm

Last winter the case rate peaked at about 60,000 per day and the death rate peaked at about 1200 per day; 40000 people were in hospital and 4000 were in mechanical ventilation beds.

Now you have cases staggering between 30,000 and 50,000 per day like a drunk and sexually incontinent prime minister but with only about 130 deaths per day, 10,000 in hospital, and 1000 in mechanical ventilation beds.

So for similar case rates you've got 5-10 times fewer serious problems.

Pity your government seems to want to take this to mean that cases can be allowed to get 5-10 times higher. Just because case rates came down on their own and we don't know why, doesn't mean we can predict that the rates will peak again soon and come down. (ETA deaths and hospital occupancy are going up).

A discussion we can have here, amongst pro-vax friends, is that vaccination is not the magic solution to everything which allows you to completely abandon all measures including actually checking that people have actually had the vaccine in certain situations.
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Vertigowooyay
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:25 pm

Thanks all. I was able to formulate a reply and got back this:
OK your right.. I better not even mention the governments Yellow Card Vaccine reporting site for side effects and deaths then. (1,650 deaths from Vax)
yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk
So I figured debate was very f.cking pointless at this point.
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jdc
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by jdc » Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:34 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:25 pm
Thanks all. I was able to formulate a reply and got back this:
OK your right.. I better not even mention the governments Yellow Card Vaccine reporting site for side effects and deaths then. (1,650 deaths from Vax)
yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk
So I figured debate was very f.cking pointless at this point.
you could always send them here
The MHRA states that “It is very important to note that a Yellow Card report does not necessarily mean the vaccine caused that reaction or event”. It says that “Many suspected ADRs reported on a Yellow Card do not have any relation to the vaccine or medicine and it is often coincidental that they both occurred around the same time”. The MHRA also says that it is important that “suspected ADRs described in this report are not interpreted as being proven side effects of COVID-19 vaccines”.

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Vertigowooyay
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:48 pm

I could, and thanks for that. But I don’t think it would make the slightest bit of difference.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by jdc » Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:43 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:48 pm
I could, and thanks for that. But I don’t think it would make the slightest bit of difference.
I know pushing back on an argument from an antivaxxer is pointless, but someone else might read it and gain some sense.

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Stupidosaurus
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Stupidosaurus » Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:27 pm

I've used a car seat-belt analogy. Most people wear seat-belts, so most people who end up in hospital after a car crash were wearing seat-belts. That doesn't mean that seat-belts aren't effective at reducing harm.

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Stupidosaurus
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Stupidosaurus » Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:37 pm

I occasionally argue with antis on Facebook, but never with much hope of changing their minds. I think the core anti-vaxers have essentially got a pseudo-religious or political viewpoint that treats science as a poisoned well and any statistic released from a government source as lies.

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Vertigowooyay
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:06 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:43 pm
Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:48 pm
I could, and thanks for that. But I don’t think it would make the slightest bit of difference.
I know pushing back on an argument from an antivaxxer is pointless, but someone else might read it and gain some sense.
In the end I did, and got the standard “They can’t all be lies” and an article about a woman who got a blood clot and a stroke after getting vaccinated. Which is tragic, but he didn’t seem to give a sh.t about the much higher risk of blood clots and stroke from getting Covid, or indeed the people who have suffered or died because of that, which leads me to believe he only gives a sh.t about one case because it bolsters his worldview. And I’m really not going back to it. What’s that Bill Murray line? “It’s hard to argue with someone who’s smart but damn near impossible to argue with an idiot”?
Calm yourself Doctor NotTheNineO’ClockNews. We’re men of science. We fear no worldly terrors.

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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by discovolante » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:08 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:06 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:43 pm
Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:48 pm
I could, and thanks for that. But I don’t think it would make the slightest bit of difference.
I know pushing back on an argument from an antivaxxer is pointless, but someone else might read it and gain some sense.
In the end I did, and got the standard “They can’t all be lies” and an article about a woman who got a blood clot and a stroke after getting vaccinated. Which is tragic, but he didn’t seem to give a sh.t about the much higher risk of blood clots and stroke from getting Covid, or indeed the people who have suffered or died because of that, which leads me to believe he only gives a sh.t about one case because it bolsters his worldview. And I’m really not going back to it. What’s that Bill Murray line? “It’s hard to argue with someone who’s smart but damn near impossible to argue with an idiot”?
At a slightly more innocent level (so not this guy necessarily) I see it as a somewhat warped version of the trolley problem: doing nothing and potentially getting a clot (for example), or making an active choice that leads to a clot. I think I can understand why that frightens people more when it comes to making a decision, even if it's illogical.
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Vertigowooyay
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Vertigowooyay » Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:56 am

discovolante wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:08 pm
Vertigowooyay wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:06 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:43 pm


I know pushing back on an argument from an antivaxxer is pointless, but someone else might read it and gain some sense.
In the end I did, and got the standard “They can’t all be lies” and an article about a woman who got a blood clot and a stroke after getting vaccinated. Which is tragic, but he didn’t seem to give a sh.t about the much higher risk of blood clots and stroke from getting Covid, or indeed the people who have suffered or died because of that, which leads me to believe he only gives a sh.t about one case because it bolsters his worldview. And I’m really not going back to it. What’s that Bill Murray line? “It’s hard to argue with someone who’s smart but damn near impossible to argue with an idiot”?
At a slightly more innocent level (so not this guy necessarily) I see it as a somewhat warped version of the trolley problem: doing nothing and potentially getting a clot (for example), or making an active choice that leads to a clot. I think I can understand why that frightens people more when it comes to making a decision, even if it's illogical.
I wondered that. But then looked at his absolute binfire of a timeline…
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jdc
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by jdc » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:23 pm

you have to link to it now.

eta: if you don't want to post it on the open forum, you could always put it in the secret members forum where only trusted regulars will see it.

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shpalman
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 14, 2021 3:47 pm

So anyway yes they're wearing off.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59260294
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shpalman
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:12 pm

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine protection and deaths among US veterans during 2021
We report SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness against infection (VE-I) and death (VE-D) by vaccine type (n = 780,225) in the Veterans Health Administration, covering 2.7% of the U.S. population. From February to October 2021, VE-I declined from 87.9% to 48.1%, and the decline was greatest for the Janssen vaccine resulting in a VE-I of 13.1%. Although breakthrough infection increased risk of death, vaccination remained protective against death in persons who became infected during the Delta surge. From July to October 2021, VE-D for age 65 years was 73.0% for Janssen, 81.5% for Moderna, and 84.3% for Pfizer-BioNTech; VE-D for age ≥65 years was 52.2% for Janssen, 75.5% for Moderna, and 70.1% for Pfizer-BioNTech. Findings support continued efforts to increase vaccination, booster campaigns, and multiple, additional layers of protection against infection.
Although the figures seem nonsensical to me in that the "Months After Full Vaccination" should be a number of months, not actual calendar months. Or in other words fine if you want to align things with the period in which there was the delta wave but when were these people actually vaccinated?
Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection* by month after vaccination†; estimated from Cox proportional hazards models‡

‡Vaccination status is modeled as time-varying, assigning follow-up time for Veterans before the date of full vaccination as unvaccinated time and time after the date of full vaccination as vaccinated time
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shpalman
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:36 pm

Screenshot_20211125-192907-02.jpeg
Screenshot_20211125-192907-02.jpeg (195.49 KiB) Viewed 1066 times
From the UK's week 47 vaccination monitoring report thingy. Dot pdf.
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shpalman
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by shpalman » Sat May 07, 2022 4:53 pm

No point vaccinating most people again with the current vaccines.

Yes we'd all like there to be one which sterilises.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by Herainestold » Wed May 11, 2022 12:45 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 4:53 pm
No point vaccinating most people again with the current vaccines.

Yes we'd all like there to be one which sterilises.
Sir John Bell must have been reading my posts. The vaccines are crap at stopping infection, especially after the first 90 days, but two doses provide very good protection against severe outcomes, including hospitalization and death.

To stop community transmission you need lockdowns as the Chinese are proving in Shanghai.
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Re: "Vaccines are wearing off"

Post by headshot » Wed May 11, 2022 6:54 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 12:45 am
To stop community transmission you need lockdowns as the Chinese are proving in Shanghai.
Again, again…that’s because so many Chinese folk aren’t vaccinated. And if they are it doesn’t help that Sinovax is shite.

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