Variant of Delta variant

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shpalman
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Variant of Delta variant

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:40 am

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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bob sterman
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by bob sterman » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:46 am

“Britain is the only country in which it has taken off in this way and I still would not rule out its growth being a chance demographic event,”
Yeah right :roll:

UK seems to be good at generating "chance events"

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:52 am

Who could possibly have predicted such an outcome?

Sounds like Alpha and Delta are having cute babies, just in time for winter.
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:55 am

“We shouldn’t be blaming the virus for what is going on in the UK,” said Gupta. “It is because we have fundamentally failed to control transmission, and that is because kids are vulnerable, they have not been vaccinated, they are back at school, they are spreading virus among themselves and they are feeding it into their families.”
The virus however should be thanking you lot.
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by jimbob » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:18 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:52 am
Who could possibly have predicted such an outcome?

Sounds like Alpha and Delta are having cute babies, just in time for winter.
I don't know, maybe anyone with a rudimentary understanding of ecology or the effects of selective pressures on development of traits?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:53 pm

Steady now.

There's been loads of these OMG VARIANT events.
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jimbob
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by jimbob » Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:05 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:53 pm
Steady now.

There's been loads of these OMG VARIANT events.
And a couple - Alpha then Delta, were significantly worse than the prevailing strains.

This looks to be making headway against other Delta variants, so is concerning at the least.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by jdc » Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:24 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:53 pm
Steady now.

There's been loads of these OMG VARIANT events.
And a couple - Alpha then Delta, were significantly worse than the prevailing strains.

This looks to be making headway against other Delta variants, so is concerning at the least.
Prof Francois Balloux, director of University College London's Genetics Institute, said: "It is potentially a marginally more infectious strain.

"It's nothing compared with what we saw with Alpha and Delta, which were something like 50 to 60 percent more transmissible. So we are talking about something quite subtle here and that is currently under investigation.

"It is likely to be up to 10 percent more transmissible.

"It's good that we are aware. It's excellent that we have the facilities and infrastructure in place to see anything that might be a bit suspicious.

"At this stage I would say wait and see, don't panic. It might be slightly, subtly more transmissible but it is not something absolutely disastrous like we saw previously."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:51 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:53 pm
Steady now.

There's been loads of these OMG VARIANT events.
If you'd been a bit more OMG ALPHA a bit sooner, fewer people might have died in Western Europe last winter. (And being a bit more OMG DELTA and a bit less desperate to keep Modi sweet may have helped you out a bit too.)

But it seems that this one isn't massively concerning compared to the damage you're letting Delta do.
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:15 pm

Yeah, we killed a lot of people with those two, our bad.

But those were events without a vaccine. Variants of a very different Covid-19.
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by shpalman » Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:25 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:15 pm
Yeah, we killed a lot of people with those two, our bad.

But those were events without a vaccine. Variants of a very different Covid-19.
How's it going with that broken weakened link between cases and deaths by the way?
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:40 pm

Going OK, just. Still to close to the cliff edge but getting away with it so far. Fatalities are below what Johnson & Co budgeted and the electorate seems more than happy to accept the death toll.
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:40 am

No need for Plan B then?
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:44 pm

Is there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Martin_B » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:26 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:44 pm
Is there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
A bit difficult to get historical data on how vaccines perform against a new variant ;)
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Herainestold » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:38 am

Martin_B wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:26 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:44 pm
Is there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
A bit difficult to get historical data on how vaccines perform against a new variant ;)
So we have to wait.
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:39 pm


Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 designated as a Variant Under Investigation by UK Health Security Agency
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covi ... -in-the-uk

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by KAJ » Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:59 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:26 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:44 pm
Is there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
A bit difficult to get historical data on how vaccines perform against a new variant ;)
In the link given by ...
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:39 pm

Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 designated as a Variant Under Investigation by UK Health Security Agency
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covi ... -in-the-uk
... I read ...
While evidence is still emerging, so far it does not appear this variant causes more severe disease or renders the vaccines currently deployed any less effective. As is routine for any new variants under investigation, UKHSA is carrying out laboratory and epidemiological investigations to better understand the properties of this variant.

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:34 am


SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 26
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ing_26.pdf

Summary thread: https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 37538?s=21

tl;dr

Looks like when compared to Delta A.Y.4.2 has a 17% growth rate advantage and a 12% higher household secondary attack rate.

So it’s probably more transmissible, but isn’t the game changer that Delta and Alpha were.

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:20 pm

Latest Sanger Institute data also shows a slowly increasing proportion of AY.4.2 compared to Delta: https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:31 pm

Not a new variant but explaining how delta is so infectious

https://www.science.org/content/article ... id=3986069
That discovery, published today in Science, is “a big deal,” says Michael Summers, a structural biologist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County—not just because it helps explain Delta’s ravages. The new system, developed by Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna of the University of California (UC), Berkeley, and her colleagues, is a powerful tool for understanding current SARS-CoV-2 variants and exploring how future variants might affect the pandemic, he says. “The system she has developed allows you to look at any mutation and its influence on key parts of viral replication. … That can now be studied in a much easier way by a lot more scientists.”
This sounds as though it could be a very useful tool for other diseases as well
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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:02 am


AY.4.2. continues to increase in prevalence slowly in England. There is an increased growth rate for AY.4.2. compared to other circulating variants in 2 separate models, and this is now consistent across regions of England. There is a small increase in secondary attack rate and in household transmission risk, though both these analyses have limitations as they are derived from routine testing and tracing data systems. There is also a slowly increasing prevalence and an increased growth rate for AY.4.2 in incoming travellers to the UK. However, there is as yet no other country reporting the same effect through domestic surveillance and there is some conflicting evidence from community survey data. Confidence in this finding therefore remains low.
But no evidence of more severe infections or lower vaccine effectiveness.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... r-2021.pdf

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Re: Variant of Delta variant

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:09 am

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 28

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... v_2021.pdf

See the thread: https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 03874?s=21

Most notable thing is the combination of Delta and the E484K mutation which is associated with immune system evasion. So far numbers have been very small though and that mutation appears to negatively affect the virus.

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