Plan B

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Plan B

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:56 am

As usual, people are focusing too much on the irritating clown guy.

The conservatives as a party don't want restrictions and many MPs will rebel to vote against them. It's entirely unsurprising as it's consistent with their ideology demonstrated over the last 11 years - prioritise the economy and screw the vulnerable.

This is a failure of conservative ideology, not the PM. Any other Tory would pull the same sh.t, but perhaps look a bit less silly doing it.

People are just getting upset because we're all vulnerable now. Business leaders are dependent on government handouts for survival. Healthy people are living like the disabled. Suddenly, Tory voters are experiencing life as the people they've been happy to chuck under the bus do.

It will be good for the UK if they can realise their mistaken faith in a defunct ideology was to blame, rather than a haunted scarecrow stuffed with porridge, so they don't rinse and repeat with the next horrible c.nt.
You can shove your climate crisis up your arse!

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Re: Plan B

Post by jimbob » Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:16 am

Well said BOAF.

Johnson is doing what he is, because of the ERG CRG as much as anything
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:33 am

No, there's always mad backbenchers, when either party is in government.

Most Prime Ministers slap them around. Show a bit of leadership. Blair had Corbyn and similar idiots to stamp on.

A narrow majority and a Prime Minister can struggle, e.g. John Major. But a massive majority like this?
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Plan B

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:49 am

It's not just backbenchers though. Sunak is reportedly against further restrictions, for instance. It's been cabinet consensus to run hot and react late since day one.
You can shove your climate crisis up your arse!

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Re: Plan B

Post by jdc » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:17 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:49 am
It's not just backbenchers though. Sunak is reportedly against further restrictions, for instance. It's been cabinet consensus to run hot and react late since day one.
Yep. This from 2020 had Hancock as the main advocate of restrictions with Sunak, Truss, Gove apparently opposing him https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... inet-split and this from 2021 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ision.html had Gove on Hancock's side with Sunak and Shapps against.

Herainestold
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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:46 pm

Is there any way leaders can be held responsible for the deaths of their fellow citizens that they, through inaction, have caused?
It is really a crime against humanity or auto-genocide, but it isn't being presented as such. When Labour finally wins, can they have a Nuremburg like process to punish the guilty?

We should be discussing this kind of outcome.
Dark days lie ahead.

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Sciolus
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Re: Plan B

Post by Sciolus » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:19 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:56 am
As usual, people are focusing too much on the irritating clown guy.

The conservatives as a party don't want restrictions and many MPs will rebel to vote against them. It's entirely unsurprising as it's consistent with their ideology demonstrated over the last 11 years - prioritise the economy and screw the vulnerable.

This is a failure of conservative ideology, not the PM. Any other Tory would pull the same sh.t, but perhaps look a bit less silly doing it.

People are just getting upset because we're all vulnerable now. Business leaders are dependent on government handouts for survival. Healthy people are living like the disabled. Suddenly, Tory voters are experiencing life as the people they've been happy to chuck under the bus do.

It will be good for the UK if they can realise their mistaken faith in a defunct ideology was to blame, rather than a haunted scarecrow stuffed with porridge, so they don't rinse and repeat with the next horrible c.nt.
It's important to remember that at the last election, 62% of the electorate* deliberately chose to run down the NHS, continuing the process of the previous decade, leaving it unable to cope with demand even in normal circumstances, and certainly without the resilience or contingency to cope with anything out of the ordinary. They are getting what they voted for.

*I'm including non-voters as complicit accomplices.

OffTheRock
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Re: Plan B

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:52 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:33 am
No, there's always mad backbenchers, when either party is in government.

Most Prime Ministers slap them around. Show a bit of leadership. Blair had Corbyn and similar idiots to stamp on.

A narrow majority and a Prime Minister can struggle, e.g. John Major. But a massive majority like this?
The massive majority isn't a massive majority if the group that runs the party has convinced a lot of the rest of the MPs in the party it would be in their long term career interests not to support more restrictions. The woefully inadequate Plan B only passed because labour voted with the government.

Johnson might have a massive majority, but it's worthless if his party vote against him and will just issue a vote of no confidence and chuck him out on a whim. The problem is the Conservative party is f.cked and doesn't look like it's going to be fixed without a change in the electoral system.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:10 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:56 am
As usual, people are focusing too much on the irritating clown guy.

The conservatives as a party don't want restrictions and many MPs will rebel to vote against them. It's entirely unsurprising as it's consistent with their ideology demonstrated over the last 11 years - prioritise the economy and screw the vulnerable.
The clown guy is important because we have not been prioritising the economy. If we had, then we would have had much quicker and more effective lockdowns with proper track, trace, and quarantine. The apparent need to balance the economy against deaths is entirely illusory - as seen in places like Australia which had a far more normal economy as well as fewer deaths due to adopting effective measures.

The problem is not prioritisation - it's great stupidity and ignorance, which our PM proudly displays.
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Re: Plan B

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:12 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:46 pm
Is there any way leaders can be held responsible for the deaths of their fellow citizens that they, through inaction, have caused?
It is really a crime against humanity or auto-genocide, but it isn't being presented as such. When Labour finally wins, can they have a Nuremburg like process to punish the guilty?

We should be discussing this kind of outcome.
If the leaders can be held accountable in such a manner, then the electorate also must be, since it is they who are ultimately responsible. It's not like the behaviour of the elected officials should be a surprise to anyone.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:55 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:12 am
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:46 pm
Is there any way leaders can be held responsible for the deaths of their fellow citizens that they, through inaction, have caused?
It is really a crime against humanity or auto-genocide, but it isn't being presented as such. When Labour finally wins, can they have a Nuremburg like process to punish the guilty?

We should be discussing this kind of outcome.
If the leaders can be held accountable in such a manner, then the electorate also must be, since it is they who are ultimately responsible. It's not like the behaviour of the elected officials should be a surprise to anyone.
There used to be this idea of "The buck stops here". It is just false propaganda. Leaders of so-called democracies are rarely held accountable.
That will be the case here, you can be sure of that.
Dark days lie ahead.

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Re: Plan B

Post by raven » Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:17 pm

Millennie Al wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:10 am

The clown guy is important because we have not been prioritising the economy. If we had, then we would have had much quicker and more effective lockdowns with proper track, trace, and quarantine. The apparent need to balance the economy against deaths is entirely illusory - as seen in places like Australia which had a far more normal economy as well as fewer deaths due to adopting effective measures.

The problem is not prioritisation - it's great stupidity and ignorance, which our PM proudly displays.
^ This, times a hundred.
Sciolus said:
It's important to remember that at the last election, 62% of the electorate* deliberately chose to run down the NHS, continuing the process of the previous decade, leaving it unable to cope with demand even in normal circumstances, and certainly without the resilience or contingency to cope with anything out of the ordinary. They are getting what they voted for.
To be charitable, some of those voters might have believed the '£350m for the NHS' bus slogan, BoJo's promise of 40 new hospitals and the oft repeated Tory sound bites about investing the most ever dosh in the NHS. Less charitably, some voters probably knwoingly traded short term damage to the NHS (thinking it'd be reversible at the next election if Labour won) against what they saw as long term benefits of Brexit.

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Re: Plan B

Post by raven » Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:21 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:33 am
No, there's always mad backbenchers, when either party is in government.

Most Prime Ministers slap them around. Show a bit of leadership. Blair had Corbyn and similar idiots to stamp on.

A narrow majority and a Prime Minister can struggle, e.g. John Major. But a massive majority like this?
I reckon the massive majority is the problem. They didn't expect to win all those red wall seats and the candidates they put up are, um, well, the bottom of the barrel.

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Re: Plan B

Post by jimbob » Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:29 pm

raven wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:21 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:33 am
No, there's always mad backbenchers, when either party is in government.

Most Prime Ministers slap them around. Show a bit of leadership. Blair had Corbyn and similar idiots to stamp on.

A narrow majority and a Prime Minister can struggle, e.g. John Major. But a massive majority like this?
I reckon the massive majority is the problem. They didn't expect to win all those red wall seats and the candidates they put up are, um, well, the bottom of the barrel.
That doesn't explain people like Chope or Swayne
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Plan B

Post by raven » Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:33 pm

Chope & Swayne are dinosaurs, aka MPs who've been in reasonably safe seats for so many years they've fossilised.

Every time I see Chope or Bone or Swayne for some reason I'm reminded of the many villians played by Price/Lee/Cushing. If only garlic and crucifixes would keep them away.

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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:43 pm

‘Encouraging signs’ plan B Covid measures may soon be lifted in England
In the clearest hint yet that some or all of the measures will be removed in 10 days' time, Oliver Dowden said that plan B coronavirus restrictions in England could be lifted in 10 days’ time.
molto tricky

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Trinucleus
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Re: Plan B

Post by Trinucleus » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:15 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:43 pm
‘Encouraging signs’ plan B Covid measures may soon be lifted in England
In the clearest hint yet that some or all of the measures will be removed in 10 days' time, Oliver Dowden said that plan B coronavirus restrictions in England could be lifted in 10 days’ time.
Good job that Labour voted them through then

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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:55 pm

Labour was in favour of stronger Plan B restrictions.

At this point we should be looking at stopping the resurgence of this Omichron wave, so premature rescinding of our few feeble restrictions is not a great idea.

We should look at what could easily be strengthened for the next inevitable wave. More robust FFP3 mask mandates for example.
Dark days lie ahead.

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lpm
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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:25 pm

I don't really know what to do about the next long plateau. Extending Plan B would help a bit, but the death toll will be high for a month or two nonetheless.

Clearly they're not going to extend Plan B and it's not obvious they should. Another mini wave of Omi surely can't be worse than the Christmas wave and that turned out to be at the low end of hospitalisation expectations.

I suspect the answer is to be the first country to end all Covid laws, including self isolation rules, and end mass testing. Simultaneously keep pushing vaccines as hard as possible and go door to door to talk to the unvaxxed. The world would benefit from having England run as an experiment.
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Trinucleus
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Re: Plan B

Post by Trinucleus » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:04 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:55 pm
Labour was in favour of stronger Plan B restrictions.

At this point we should be looking at stopping the resurgence of this Omichron wave, so premature rescinding of our few feeble restrictions is not a great idea.

We should look at what could easily be strengthened for the next inevitable wave. More robust FFP3 mask mandates for example.
I'm interested in why we'll get a other wave when we'll have a population where a very high number of people will either be vaccinated or have antibodies from an earlier infection. Will it be from reduced resistance over time?

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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:20 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:04 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:55 pm
Labour was in favour of stronger Plan B restrictions.

At this point we should be looking at stopping the resurgence of this Omichron wave, so premature rescinding of our few feeble restrictions is not a great idea.

We should look at what could easily be strengthened for the next inevitable wave. More robust FFP3 mask mandates for example.
I'm interested in why we'll get a other wave when we'll have a population where a very high number of people will either be vaccinated or have antibodies from an earlier infection. Will it be from reduced resistance over time?
Omichron spreads fast, the analogy is a wildfire, any susceptible people in a social network will be affected. It doesn't infiltrate every social network and there will be people who are vulnerable who will not be infected this time. In six months time, immunity will wane, Omicron will come surging back and it will preferentially infect those who escaped the previous outbreak.

We can be prepared for this inevitability, or in true British fashion we can pretend it will not happen.
Dark days lie ahead.

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Re: Plan B

Post by bob sterman » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:19 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Omichron spreads fast, the analogy is a wildfire, any susceptible people in a social network will be affected. It doesn't infiltrate every social network and there will be people who are vulnerable who will not be infected this time. In six months time, immunity will wane, Omicron will come surging back and it will preferentially infect those who escaped the previous outbreak.
Please do explain why you're so confident the next wave will be driven by the same variant as the current one??

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Re: Plan B

Post by jdc » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:23 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:04 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:55 pm
Labour was in favour of stronger Plan B restrictions.

At this point we should be looking at stopping the resurgence of this Omichron wave, so premature rescinding of our few feeble restrictions is not a great idea.

We should look at what could easily be strengthened for the next inevitable wave. More robust FFP3 mask mandates for example.
I'm interested in why we'll get a other wave when we'll have a population where a very high number of people will either be vaccinated or have antibodies from an earlier infection. Will it be from reduced resistance over time?
That's part of it. Article I read predicted future outbreaks as the virus found the unvaccinated, the under-vaccinated, and those with waning immunity.

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Re: Plan B

Post by jdc » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:24 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:19 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Omichron spreads fast, the analogy is a wildfire, any susceptible people in a social network will be affected. It doesn't infiltrate every social network and there will be people who are vulnerable who will not be infected this time. In six months time, immunity will wane, Omicron will come surging back and it will preferentially infect those who escaped the previous outbreak.
Please do explain why you're so confident the next wave will be driven by the same variant as the current one??
Well it'll either be Omicron or a variant that can out-compete the highly-transmissible & immune-escapey Omicron so I'm hoping H is right.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:52 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:19 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Omichron spreads fast, the analogy is a wildfire, any susceptible people in a social network will be affected. It doesn't infiltrate every social network and there will be people who are vulnerable who will not be infected this time. In six months time, immunity will wane, Omicron will come surging back and it will preferentially infect those who escaped the previous outbreak.
Please do explain why you're so confident the next wave will be driven by the same variant as the current one??
Good point. I am not that confident that the next wave will be Omichron. I am confident that there will be another wave in six months or less, and it will be bad.

Omichron is sufficiently different that it might be considered a new pathogen.When there is anew pathogen in a pandemic, for some reason, the second wave is usually worse than the first wave. Look at the original covid or the Spanish flu of 1918.The second wave was much more deadly.
We are being lulled into a false sense of security. We are extremely lucky that Omichron was not more deadly, and now is not the time to let down our guard.
Dark days lie ahead.

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