Plan B

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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bob sterman
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Re: Plan B

Post by bob sterman » Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:57 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 4:39 pm
In this particular case, though, the modellers said "here's what will happen if you don't do something" and the government decided to not do anything, and it didn't happen anyway, and we don't know why.

But maybe while people don't pay any attention to the models or change their behaviour based on them, at that level of granularity, they do start paying attention when people they know start catching covid.
Sorry - my mistake - I was thinking back to Feb/Mar 2020.

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shpalman
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:40 pm

The good news is that you've comfortably exceeded your target of killing 1000 people a week. This week looks like about 1200.
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lpm
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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:43 pm

1,200 a week is infinitely higher than the shits the British public give about this death toll. 1,200 divided by zero.
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:47 pm

ETA everyone wants there to be fewer British people as long as it's someone else who dies.
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Re: Plan B

Post by Lew Dolby » Fri Nov 05, 2021 6:27 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:43 pm
1,200 a week is infinitely higher than the shits the British public give about this death toll. 1,200 divided by zero.
Yep - I can't help thinking what the outcry from the press and the public would have been if the UK had been losing those sort of numbers of troops in Afghanistan.
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Re: Plan B

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 05, 2021 6:35 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 6:27 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:43 pm
1,200 a week is infinitely higher than the shits the British public give about this death toll. 1,200 divided by zero.
Yep - I can't help thinking what the outcry from the press and the public would have been if the UK had been losing those sort of numbers of troops in Afghanistan.
Yeah, but troops are Heroes. Everyone* who's died of covid is either old/sick and therefore going to die anyway, or young and stupid and therefore deserving of their misfortune for daring to go to school/work/a warehouse rave.

Plus there's not many troops, but loads of randoms.

Plus you can blame foreigners for killing troops, whereas the blame for covid lies with traditional patriotic normal British hard-working things like pubs, stiff-upper-lip mustn't-grumblism, and refusing to cover up when environmental conditions suggest it would be wise.
You can shove your climate crisis up your arse!

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Re: Plan B

Post by Sciolus » Fri Nov 05, 2021 7:40 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:40 pm
The good news is that you've comfortably exceeded your target of killing 1000 people a week. This week looks like about 1200.
And other excess deaths is about as much again.

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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:24 pm

This says that 2148 double-jabbed over-50's died in October in the UK (ETA out of something like 3883 total covid within-28-days deaths).

In Italy in October 1179 people died in total.
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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Fri Nov 05, 2021 11:32 pm

i wonder if we are going to hit 100 000 per year for covid deaths?
I think not, it will probably settle in the 60-80 000 range.
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Sat Nov 06, 2021 4:17 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:43 pm
1,200 a week is infinitely higher than the shits the British public give about this death toll. 1,200 divided by zero.
I'm sure I read a prediction today that it would peak at 1,400 per week in the middle of November. I don't see why it should, it's nearly three weeks since cases peaked so deaths are basically going to peak over the next few days* and then come down.

* - plus three days for the average to be valid

I'll ETA it if I find it in the next 15 minutes.
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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:16 pm

Things are looking pretty grim in Europe, extremely high cases, hospitalizations and death. Likely due to fading immunity coinciding with the autumn/winter surge.

I shudder to imagine what it will look like when it hits here, as it will.

John Burn Murdoch twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 3370535941
John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

Dark days lie ahead.

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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:27 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:16 pm
Things are looking pretty grim in Europe, extremely high cases, hospitalizations and death. Likely due to fading immunity coinciding with the autumn/winter surge.

I shudder to imagine what it will look like when it hits here, as it will.

John Burn Murdoch twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 3370535941
John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

Yeah some countries are as bad as the UK.
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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:42 pm

Huh?

The UK plan was to deliberately take it on the chin in autumn, increase immunity and reduce the December to March wave. Hence the policy of driving school cases up not down.

Other countries have chosen suppression measures in autumn, have lower cases now, but enter flu season with lower immunity.

No idea which approach will have the lower death toll overall. But no reason to assume the UK simply follows the EU upwards. Intentionally on a different path.
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:06 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:31 pm

'draconian' lockdowns should be avoided says chief executive of NHS Providers, while the chief executive of NHS Providers says the [current] situation [is] unprecedented and “very worrying” as exhausted hospital staff prepare for higher levels of Covid and other respiratory infections such as influenza, while dealing with a backlog of care for patients.

(I'm not actually convinced that Covid will get higher than any of the recent peaks we've had, not that this wasn't already too high.)
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Re: Plan B

Post by OffTheRock » Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:56 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:42 pm
Huh?

The UK plan was to deliberately take it on the chin in autumn, increase immunity and reduce the December to March wave. Hence the policy of driving school cases up not down.

Other countries have chosen suppression measures in autumn, have lower cases now, but enter flu season with lower immunity.

No idea which approach will have the lower death toll overall. But no reason to assume the UK simply follows the EU upwards. Intentionally on a different path.
If we wanted to drive cases up outside Dec-Mar, it might have been better to have moved the return of Young voices into this term.

For those unfamiliar with the format, Young Voices involves mixing huge numbers of primary children from schools up and down the country to sing together (with all the enthusiasm of primary children). And unlike secondary children, primary children are not usually expected by the government to take twice weekly LFTs or wear masks because they are too young. If they haven't all had it by then, this could end up being quite 'interesting'.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:06 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:31 pm
'draconian' lockdowns should be avoided says chief executive of NHS Providers, while the chief executive of NHS Providers says the [current] situation [is] unprecedented and “very worrying” as exhausted hospital staff prepare for higher levels of Covid and other respiratory infections such as influenza, while dealing with a backlog of care for patients.

(I'm not actually convinced that Covid will get higher than any of the recent peaks we've had, not that this wasn't already too high.)
A "draconian" lockdown would help the NHS immensely. Too bad its out of the question.
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Re: Plan B

Post by Chris Preston » Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:04 am

Lockdowns are much less effective against the delta variant as seen in New Zealand and Victoria.

What does seem to work is getting a higher percentage of the population vaccinated. Australia has caught up with the UK in percentage of population vaccinated, which is an indictment on the UK given how much earlier they started vaccinating. Australia is on the cusp of approving vaccines for 5 to 11 year olds, although they won't be rolled out until early 2022.
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Re: Plan B

Post by bagpuss » Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:06 am

OffTheRock wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:56 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:42 pm
Huh?

The UK plan was to deliberately take it on the chin in autumn, increase immunity and reduce the December to March wave. Hence the policy of driving school cases up not down.

Other countries have chosen suppression measures in autumn, have lower cases now, but enter flu season with lower immunity.

No idea which approach will have the lower death toll overall. But no reason to assume the UK simply follows the EU upwards. Intentionally on a different path.
If we wanted to drive cases up outside Dec-Mar, it might have been better to have moved the return of Young voices into this term.

For those unfamiliar with the format, Young Voices involves mixing huge numbers of primary children from schools up and down the country to sing together (with all the enthusiasm of primary children). And unlike secondary children, primary children are not usually expected by the government to take twice weekly LFTs or wear masks because they are too young. If they haven't all had it by then, this could end up being quite 'interesting'.
The bagkitten's school seems to have gone for the "f.ck that, it's a bad idea" approach, postponing all choir rehearsals until further notice. This has made the bagkitten very sad, as she was all set for the RAH concert back in July which they canned with fairly short notice, and was only comforting herself by looking forward to the O2. I've been trying to talk her down for a while though as I'd noticed that the school had very carefully not said a single thing about the O2 concert (that info had come to the bagkitten via another choir member from that child's parent) so I had a strong suspicion that they might not be planning on being involved*. I'm devastated on the bagkitten's behalf as this would be her last chance - she's in Y6 - but I'm definitely not so devastated from other perspectives.




*That said, it could just be another example of the school's crap communication skills.

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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:20 am

Our beloved Prime Minister has always been clear the number one priority is children and education. Ahead of nightclubs, pubs, theatre.

And this is why. It simply wrong to spoil childhood experiences and education.

It can't be allowed to continue. Heads like this should get a slapping from Ofsted if they fail to remove every Covid restriction.
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Re: Plan B

Post by bagpuss » Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:14 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:20 am
Our beloved Prime Minister has always been clear the number one priority is children and education. Ahead of nightclubs, pubs, theatre.

And this is why. It simply wrong to spoil childhood experiences and education.

It can't be allowed to continue. Heads like this should get a slapping from Ofsted if they fail to remove every Covid restriction.
Frankly, the bagkitten's school head should get many slappings for many reasons, and this is very much the least of them. We've totally had enough of him. I'm glad she's in Y6 and is going to a school with a far far better head next year (whichever school she gets in to, the heads are both a vast improvement).

But that aside, I admit to vacillating about this. I'm all for the kids getting back to normal at school, with a few minor and sensible precautions such as ventilation and not mixing years where it brings no benefit (they used to bring other years in to watch the class assemblies where parents are also invited, now it's just parents which seems perfectly sensible and reasonable). But I'm not so sure about the sense of bringing thousands of kids from all over a region, as well as their families, into one huge venue. But then I swing back the other way and remember the damage of all those missed opportunities. Mostly, I'm pissed off at my own inability to make up my mind about stuff like this.

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Re: Plan B

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:36 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:06 am
OffTheRock wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:56 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:42 pm
Huh?

The UK plan was to deliberately take it on the chin in autumn, increase immunity and reduce the December to March wave. Hence the policy of driving school cases up not down.

Other countries have chosen suppression measures in autumn, have lower cases now, but enter flu season with lower immunity.

No idea which approach will have the lower death toll overall. But no reason to assume the UK simply follows the EU upwards. Intentionally on a different path.
If we wanted to drive cases up outside Dec-Mar, it might have been better to have moved the return of Young voices into this term.

For those unfamiliar with the format, Young Voices involves mixing huge numbers of primary children from schools up and down the country to sing together (with all the enthusiasm of primary children). And unlike secondary children, primary children are not usually expected by the government to take twice weekly LFTs or wear masks because they are too young. If they haven't all had it by then, this could end up being quite 'interesting'.
The bagkitten's school seems to have gone for the "f.ck that, it's a bad idea" approach, postponing all choir rehearsals until further notice. This has made the bagkitten very sad, as she was all set for the RAH concert back in July which they canned with fairly short notice, and was only comforting herself by looking forward to the O2. I've been trying to talk her down for a while though as I'd noticed that the school had very carefully not said a single thing about the O2 concert (that info had come to the bagkitten via another choir member from that child's parent) so I had a strong suspicion that they might not be planning on being involved*. I'm devastated on the bagkitten's behalf as this would be her last chance - she's in Y6 - but I'm definitely not so devastated from other perspectives.




*That said, it could just be another example of the school's crap communication skills.
My guess is that if they are postponing choir rehearsals then there may well be an outbreak in school. It's the sort of advice local public health advisors give, but schools weren't supposed to be doing themselves under threat from the government. Unless you are in an area with a particularly bad outbreak (or affected by the Immensa lab cock up) where local authorities and local public health have suggested introducing restrictions to all schools in a given area.

This definitely seems like the sort of disappointment that might have been avoided if the government weren't trying to infect every school child and instead tried to vaccinate a few more of them and slow transmission down a bit.

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Re: Plan B

Post by bagpuss » Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:43 pm

OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:36 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:06 am
OffTheRock wrote:
Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:56 pm


If we wanted to drive cases up outside Dec-Mar, it might have been better to have moved the return of Young voices into this term.

For those unfamiliar with the format, Young Voices involves mixing huge numbers of primary children from schools up and down the country to sing together (with all the enthusiasm of primary children). And unlike secondary children, primary children are not usually expected by the government to take twice weekly LFTs or wear masks because they are too young. If they haven't all had it by then, this could end up being quite 'interesting'.
The bagkitten's school seems to have gone for the "f.ck that, it's a bad idea" approach, postponing all choir rehearsals until further notice. This has made the bagkitten very sad, as she was all set for the RAH concert back in July which they canned with fairly short notice, and was only comforting herself by looking forward to the O2. I've been trying to talk her down for a while though as I'd noticed that the school had very carefully not said a single thing about the O2 concert (that info had come to the bagkitten via another choir member from that child's parent) so I had a strong suspicion that they might not be planning on being involved*. I'm devastated on the bagkitten's behalf as this would be her last chance - she's in Y6 - but I'm definitely not so devastated from other perspectives.




*That said, it could just be another example of the school's crap communication skills.
My guess is that if they are postponing choir rehearsals then there may well be an outbreak in school. It's the sort of advice local public health advisors give, but schools weren't supposed to be doing themselves under threat from the government. Unless you are in an area with a particularly bad outbreak (or affected by the Immensa lab cock up) where local authorities and local public health have suggested introducing restrictions to all schools in a given area.

This definitely seems like the sort of disappointment that might have been avoided if the government weren't trying to infect every school child and instead tried to vaccinate a few more of them and slow transmission down a bit.
"Small number of cases" apparently so yes, that's probably it.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Gfamily » Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:34 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:43 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:36 pm

My guess is that if they are postponing choir rehearsals then there may well be an outbreak in school.
"Small number of cases" apparently so yes, that's probably it.
The primary school where MrsG is a governor seems to have had a lot of cases over half term - 10 current cases reported in the newsletter, and another 8 awaiting PCR result tests.
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Re: Plan B

Post by headshot » Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:56 am

My brother’s kids’ school has apparently got about 50 kids off at any given time - because of positive test or close contact - out of a about 1200 kids in total.

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