Plan B

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
OffTheRock
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Re: Plan B

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:17 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:43 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:36 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:06 am


The bagkitten's school seems to have gone for the "f.ck that, it's a bad idea" approach, postponing all choir rehearsals until further notice. This has made the bagkitten very sad, as she was all set for the RAH concert back in July which they canned with fairly short notice, and was only comforting herself by looking forward to the O2. I've been trying to talk her down for a while though as I'd noticed that the school had very carefully not said a single thing about the O2 concert (that info had come to the bagkitten via another choir member from that child's parent) so I had a strong suspicion that they might not be planning on being involved*. I'm devastated on the bagkitten's behalf as this would be her last chance - she's in Y6 - but I'm definitely not so devastated from other perspectives.




*That said, it could just be another example of the school's crap communication skills.
My guess is that if they are postponing choir rehearsals then there may well be an outbreak in school. It's the sort of advice local public health advisors give, but schools weren't supposed to be doing themselves under threat from the government. Unless you are in an area with a particularly bad outbreak (or affected by the Immensa lab cock up) where local authorities and local public health have suggested introducing restrictions to all schools in a given area.

This definitely seems like the sort of disappointment that might have been avoided if the government weren't trying to infect every school child and instead tried to vaccinate a few more of them and slow transmission down a bit.
"Small number of cases" apparently so yes, that's probably it.
I believe that’s the current code for ‘covid absolutely f.cking everywhere’. :lol:

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jimbob
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Re: Plan B

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:22 pm

headshot wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:56 am
My brother’s kids’ school has apparently got about 50 kids off at any given time - because of positive test or close contact - out of a about 1200 kids in total.
I was talking to a colleague this afternoon about her Brownies and Rainbows. About half were isolating last session she had (can't remember which group it was)

Lots of kids with it round here
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Plan B

Post by bagpuss » Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:53 am

OffTheRock wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:17 pm
bagpuss wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:43 pm
OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:36 pm


My guess is that if they are postponing choir rehearsals then there may well be an outbreak in school. It's the sort of advice local public health advisors give, but schools weren't supposed to be doing themselves under threat from the government. Unless you are in an area with a particularly bad outbreak (or affected by the Immensa lab cock up) where local authorities and local public health have suggested introducing restrictions to all schools in a given area.

This definitely seems like the sort of disappointment that might have been avoided if the government weren't trying to infect every school child and instead tried to vaccinate a few more of them and slow transmission down a bit.
"Small number of cases" apparently so yes, that's probably it.
I believe that’s the current code for ‘covid absolutely f.cking everywhere’. :lol:
:lol: We're not aware of any cases in her year - and they're not daft in Y6 - they notice people being missing! So far, no-one has been off long enough to have been self-isolating. She told me this herself unprompted - the kids have been working it out. Plus, small town, so gossip spreads, and I haven't heard of anyone among any of my friends or friends of friends who have it either. So I think it genuinely is a small number, at the moment. I'm not expecting that to be the case much longer though - numbers are shooting through the roof in our area, according to CovidZoe - highest case numbers at any point to date by a very long way.

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shpalman
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:19 am

Ministers expected to sign off plan B Covid rules for England
Ministers are expected to sign off new rules to impose home working and vaccine certification across England in the face of rising Covid cases, the Guardian understands.

Downing Street said no final decisions had been made but ministers and officials convened on Wednesday to move to plan B and to begin
imposing some restrictions as early as Wednesday night.
molto tricky

Herainestold
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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:42 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:19 am
Ministers expected to sign off plan B Covid rules for England
Ministers are expected to sign off new rules to impose home working and vaccine certification across England in the face of rising Covid cases, the Guardian understands.

Downing Street said no final decisions had been made but ministers and officials convened on Wednesday to move to plan B and to begin
imposing some restrictions as early as Wednesday night.
Too little, too late.
Dark days lie ahead.

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lpm
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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:10 pm

It's here!

- work from home from Monday
- masks in cinemas/theatres
- NHS Covid Pass mandatory for indoor nightclubs and similar, plus very large outdoor things like football
- negative lateral test also acceptable
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Trinucleus
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Re: Plan B

Post by Trinucleus » Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:38 pm

Still ok to go to pubs of course. They're safe

WFJ
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Re: Plan B

Post by WFJ » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:12 pm

Has the UK introduced proper testing yet or will they be accepting self reported at home tests again?

OffTheRock
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Re: Plan B

Post by OffTheRock » Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:28 pm

WFJ wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:12 pm
Has the UK introduced proper testing yet or will they be accepting self reported at home tests again?
Self reported home tests I think unless there's a surprise in the guidance when it comes out. Don't need a booster either if it's over 6 months since your second. They might do something about that in the future. Also work from home from next week, or don't if you don't think you can.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:34 pm

By Christmas we will be into full stay at home lockdown.
Dark days lie ahead.

Chris Preston
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Re: Plan B

Post by Chris Preston » Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:17 am

That should not be necessary, but other practices do have to be used and vaccinations have to go up.

In this bit of the antipodes have had compulsory masks in all public indoor places and on public transport for months - although schools are now exempt. There remain some restrictions on movement, particularly for international travellers, but not much.

We have got the vaccination rate for ages 12 and above to 91% single dosed and 83% fully vaccinated. Approval has just been given for vaccinating 5 to 11 year olds and the expectation is that all will be vaccinated before school starts again at the end of January. All school staff need to be vaccinated to be on site. All police need to be fully vaccinated. In addition to health care workers.

Businesses are starting to implement vaccine mandates. I will need to show proof I have had two vaccines to enter Adelaide Oval to see if Jimmy can rescue the ashes next week (and wear a mask the whole time). Almost every large venue in the city has the same rules. By the end of the year, many hotels and some restaurants will insist all patrons are fully vaccinated. I can't go and see my skin doctor without proof of vaccination. Can't visit anyone in aged care without proof of vaccination. The University has not moved yet, but one of the others in the city has.

We will get the omicron variant, but it is less likely to spread as rapidly with the higher vaccination levels and mask wearing.
Here grows much rhubarb.

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lpm
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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:47 am

Wishful thinking, I suspect. As per the Woodchopper links, for transmission Omi punches through vaccine protection pretty well. Probably even recent third booster jabs.

And mask wearing is a bit weak, relative to the pace Omi can spread.

So while it might spread less rapidly, that's still rapid enough to overwhelm hospitals via sheer weight of numbers.

It then becomes a task of spreading the weight of numbers across three months instead of one month, which requires lockdowns.
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shpalman
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:15 pm

Stricter measures than plan B may be needed to rein in UK’s Omicron growth
“For me it makes no sense to be instituting working from home policies and saying go ahead with parties. That is frankly ridiculous.”
molto tricky

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Re: Plan B

Post by raven » Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:36 pm

In addition, unlike the controlled workplace environment, parties often take place in crowded indoor settings, without masks and with loud talking and singing.
That'll be like the Christmas meal my mum went to with one of her clubs this week then. 30 pensioners on a jolly to a pub by coach. She said there was only one other biggish group there, but it was so loud she could hardly hear....

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shpalman
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:03 am

molto tricky

Hunting Dog
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Re: Plan B

Post by Hunting Dog » Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:09 pm

Judging by the local Tesco this morning, there must also be an exemption if you're either; shouting into your phone, wearing a hi-viz jacket, are male, or really can't be arsed. I think out of about 20 customers only me and one other lady were wearing a face mask :(

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shpalman
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Re: Plan B

Post by shpalman » Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:23 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:09 pm
Judging by the local Tesco this morning, there must also be an exemption if you're either; shouting into your phone, wearing a hi-viz jacket, are male, or really can't be arsed. I think out of about 20 customers only me and one other lady were wearing a face mask :(
The great news is that it means your can take stuff without paying, since it's the job of the police and not theirs to enforce that too.
molto tricky

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bjn
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Re: Plan B

Post by bjn » Sat Dec 11, 2021 10:55 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:09 pm
Judging by the local Tesco this morning, there must also be an exemption if you're either; shouting into your phone, wearing a hi-viz jacket, are male, or really can't be arsed. I think out of about 20 customers only me and one other lady were wearing a face mask :(
Pretty sensible in the Chiswick Sainsbury's yesterday. 90%+ wearing masks.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Dec 11, 2021 11:25 pm

Only in England have I seen signs saying "You must wear a mask unless medically exempt" - Portugal, Iceland and Spain tend to just go for "You must wear a mask."

Breathing through a mask is a piece of piss, so anybody who can't manage it is clearly suffering from a severe, debilitating respiratory condition. You'd expect such people to be taking other precautions, like wearing a visor, when staying away isn't possible.

Is the English messaging a super important and worthy progressive measure to include the disabled?

Or is it just providing an easy get-out for entitled whingebags who don't like being minorly inconvenienced?
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Woodchopper
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Re: Plan B

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Dec 12, 2021 12:22 pm

Comprehensive thread on pressures on the NHS: https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/stat ... 87585?s=21

tl;dr A huge backlog of previously delayed treatments means that the NHS is in a much more difficult position now than it was a year ago, even though Covid hospital admissions are currently lower.

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Re: Plan B

Post by headshot » Sun Dec 12, 2021 1:00 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 11:25 pm
Only in England have I seen signs saying "You must wear a mask unless medically exempt" - Portugal, Iceland and Spain tend to just go for "You must wear a mask."

Breathing through a mask is a piece of piss, so anybody who can't manage it is clearly suffering from a severe, debilitating respiratory condition. You'd expect such people to be taking other precautions, like wearing a visor, when staying away isn't possible.

Is the English messaging a super important and worthy progressive measure to include the disabled?

Or is it just providing an easy get-out for entitled whingebags who don't like being minorly inconvenienced?
I think it’s more to do with over-zealous mask advocates giving non-wearers sh.t.

There’s been a lot of talk about psych conditions (esp people who have suffered abuse and trauma) having panic attacks whilst wearing masks, so it’s not just about breathing easily.

A lot of shops and transport systems have announcements asking people to wear masks - they’re almost always followed up with “remember some people can’t wear them for medical reasons, so be kind”.

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lpm
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Re: Plan B

Post by lpm » Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:08 pm

Incompetent tw.t wrote:We have a chance to ride out this Omicron wave without shutting down our country once again
Obviously we have a chance, there's always a chance.

But that says nothing on whether a Prime Minister should take this gamble with the health and lives of citizens.
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Herainestold
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Re: Plan B

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:27 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:08 pm
Incompetent tw.t wrote:We have a chance to ride out this Omicron wave without shutting down our country once again
Obviously we have a chance, there's always a chance.

But that says nothing on whether a Prime Minister should take this gamble with the health and lives of citizens.
Why walk into a buzz saw when you can just turn away?
Dark days lie ahead.

OffTheRock
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Re: Plan B

Post by OffTheRock » Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:37 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:27 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:08 pm
Incompetent tw.t wrote:We have a chance to ride out this Omicron wave without shutting down our country once again
Obviously we have a chance, there's always a chance.

But that says nothing on whether a Prime Minister should take this gamble with the health and lives of citizens.
Why walk into a buzz saw when you can just turn away?
I don't think we're walking into it so much as running into it.

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Re: Plan B

Post by Millennie Al » Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:59 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:08 pm
Incompetent tw.t wrote:We have a chance to ride out this Omicron wave without shutting down our country once again
Obviously we have a chance, there's always a chance.

But that says nothing on whether a Prime Minister should take this gamble with the health and lives of citizens.
If he keeps saying that we don't need to act, he'll inevitable be correct eventually, so maybe he' hoping that people will only remember the last occurrence.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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