New lockdowns in China

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Herainestold
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New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Tue Nov 02, 2021 3:26 pm

China is still pursuing its Covid Zero policy and has implemented new lockdowns in some regions due to an outbreak of 120 cases in the last few days.
The nation of 1.4 billion has placed at least four million people under harsh new lockdown measures in a desperate attempt to maintain the nation's Covid-zero strategy.

The order has been imposed in 11 provinces – including Beijing – and apartment blocks with active cases have been put into strict 21 day lockdowns.

It comes after more than 120 Covid cases were reported in the last week — leaving authorities scrambling to contain the outbreak just 100 days before the start of the 2022 Winter Olympics – and two weeks out from a key Chinese Communist Party meeting.
As part of China's strict enforcement of the zero-Covid policy, those deemed to have failed in controlling Covid are often dismissed from their posts or punished.

On Tuesday, the official Xinhua news agency reported that the party secretary of Ejin Banner in the northern Inner Mongolia region had been sacked, "due to poor performance and implementation in epidemic prevention and control".

Hit by the latest wave, the city locked down about 35,000 residents from Monday. Around 10,000 tourists were also placed under lockdown in Ejin, according to local media reports.

Six other officials were punished for their "slack response" to the latest flare-up, state media reported, and a local police bureau deputy director was removed from their position.

Beijing police have launched three criminal investigations into alleged Covid safety breaches, deputy director of the city's public security bureau said Sunday.
Can you imagine if we held our leaders to account in the same manner?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/china- ... 6HP2UKJEY/
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by WFJ » Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:06 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 3:26 pm
China is still pursuing its Covid Zero policy and has implemented new lockdowns in some regions due to an outbreak of 120 cases in the last few days.
[...]
As part of China's strict enforcement of the zero-Covid policy, those deemed to have failed in controlling Covid are often dismissed from their posts or punished.

On Tuesday, the official Xinhua news agency reported that the party secretary of Ejin Banner in the northern Inner Mongolia region had been sacked, "due to poor performance and implementation in epidemic prevention and control".

Hit by the latest wave, the city locked down about 35,000 residents from Monday. Around 10,000 tourists were also placed under lockdown in Ejin, according to local media reports.

Six other officials were punished for their "slack response" to the latest flare-up, state media reported, and a local police bureau deputy director was removed from their position.

Beijing police have launched three criminal investigations into alleged Covid safety breaches, deputy director of the city's public security bureau said Sunday.
Can you imagine if we held our leaders to account in the same manner?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/china- ... 6HP2UKJEY/
Ha :lol: Good one!

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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by jdc » Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:20 pm

I don't think the Chinese can hold their leaders to account. Their leaders can hold officials to account though, I'll give you that.

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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by WFJ » Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:29 pm

jdc wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:20 pm
I don't think the Chinese can hold their leaders to account. Their leaders can hold officials to account though, I'll give you that.
And the officials are as likely to have been held to account for actually reporting cases as they are for not controlling covid.

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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Chris Preston » Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:39 am

Lockdowns proved effective against the original strain when they were effectively applied. Lockdowns have proved much less effective against the delta strain because it is so much more infective. You also need to have very good contract tracing in addition to the lockdown to round up the virus.

Vietnam discovered locking down was less effective at limiting the spread of the delta variant, as did New Zealand and the Australian states. South Australia got lucky, but Victoria failed with the longest lockdown on the planet, because there was too much leakage, both internally and from New South Wales.

What has worked is vaccination. New South Wales has got cases down from a high of 2000 a day to less than 200 a day by getting the vaccination rate over 80% for those aged 12 and older (over 90% first doses for those aged 16 and older). This is despite having more or less no restrictions for fully vaccinated people. Now vaccines are approved for 5 to 11 year olds, that will slow spread further.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Wed Nov 03, 2021 5:43 pm

Continuing new cases and restrictions in China, authorities urge residents to stockpile food.
Despite the restrictions, local Covid-19 infections have been found in 19 of 31 provinces in China, according to a Bloomberg report. The country's National Health Commission said that of the 96 new cases that were registered on Tuesday, 35 were reported in the province of Heilongjiang bordering Russia, 14 in Hebei, another 14 in Gansu, nine in Beijing, six in Inner Mongolia, four each in Chongqing and Qinghai, two each in Jiangxi, Yunnan and Ningxia, and one in Sichuan, reported Reuters news agency.

According to the World Health Organisation, 68.97% of China's population is fully vaccinated.
China's Ministry of Commerce, in an order issued on Tuesday, asked citizens to stock up on daily necessities and household emergency supplies for the upcoming winter and spring. The recommended list of household emergency supplies in the country include instant noodles, bottled water, compressed biscuits and luncheon meat.
"Encouraging families to store a certain amount of daily necessities in accordance with their needs to meet daily and emergency needs," said the notice, according to a Global Times report. The notice sparked speculations of a harsher lockdown in the wake of the surge in cases.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/ch ... ar-AAQgWaH
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:59 am

China takes these recent outbreaks seriously. They are hoping to have zero cases for the 2022 Winter Olympics.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s protocols are in overdrive, with quarantine often mandated for even remote contacts of positive COVID-19 cases. For example, a visit to a restaurant by someone who later tests positive can mean not only quarantine for the other diners and staff but also for anyone who was there in subsequent days. False positives further complicate matters: Although the diagnostic tests are reliable, China is administering them on a vast scale that inevitably produces many false positives, as actual cases are very rare.

China’s COVID-19 control systems are more localized than one might expect, which creates friction. Although top officials set priorities and norms, cities have instituted their own separate rules, use different versions of the health apps that display their testing and vaccination status, and often have problems sharing individual data with one other. Someone traveling or even moving between cities may experience difficulties transferring their information that take days or weeks to fix.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/03/ch ... ai-disney/
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by headshot » Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:55 am

What are the health (mental and physical) outcomes of such a draconian policy that is clearly not led by the facts as science knows them?

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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Sat Nov 06, 2021 4:04 pm

Some commentators think China could stay isolated for three or four years.
“My personal estimate is China won’t reopen for another year,” said Chen Zhengming, an epidemiology professor at the University of Oxford.

The country’s success with suppressing flareups has won public approval, he pointed out, while places treating the virus as endemic are seeing “what the government fears — once you relax, cases surge.”

“China’s vaccination rate is very high, but most are vaccinated with an inactivated shot” that is less effective than an mRNA inoculation. “Without adequate coverage of boosters and a significant change in outbreaks elsewhere, I think the chance of China reopening and giving up Covid Zero is small,” he said. Otherwise, the Communist Party is “not going to change unless it gets to a situation where they can’t control [the virus] any more.”

One way out of Covid Zero may be to “pick a few places to start experimenting with controllable risks,” he said. Testing what happens once extreme measures are abandoned “will give people tremendous confidence,” he said.

But even if the government opts to stay isolated for another three or four years, “China is such a big country, it could sustain itself still pretty well internally,” he said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... ar-AAQn3DW
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:01 pm

Strict lockdown in Xian is successful in suppressing recent surge.
The lockdown underway in the Chinese city of Xi’an demonstrates again that public health measures combined with vaccination can suppress COVID-19 outbreaks as part of a strategy aimed at the elimination of the virus. It stands in stark contrast to the disastrous policies of other governments around the world that have allowed the virus, particularly the latest Omicron variant, to run rampant through their populations.
Xi’an has now been in lockdown for two weeks and the daily tally has fallen to less than 100. For the 24 hours on January 2, a total of 90 new local cases were identified, 80 of which were found in the quarantine area for close contacts. While it is too soon to declare the outbreak over, the figures continue to fall with yesterday’s report of just 35 new infections and a cumulative total of less than 1,800 locally acquired cases.
Multiple rounds of testing of large sections of the city’s population have been conducted to identify new cases. As of December 28, 5,077 testing points have been set up, with more than 30,000 testing personnel and 132,900 related service personnel. Those who are deemed close contacts are required to quarantine in designated areas.

When the lockdown was initially imposed, one person from a household was permitted to go out to buy food and supplies once every two days. However, that policy was further tightened last week to prohibit all trips except for testing for COVID-19. To provide food and other daily necessities to the city of 13 million, Xi’an has mobilized 64,000 grassroots officials and 45,000 volunteers, many of whom are young students, ordinary workers and community residents.
The very same US and international media remains silent about the tragedies occurring every day throughout the rest of the world as a result of the “herd immunity” policy that is producing millions of daily infections, the breakdown of hospital systems and a rising toll of deaths and chronic health problems known broadly as long-COVID.

The figures speak for themselves. In Xi’an, less than 1,800 symptomatic infections have been identified since the beginning of the outbreak in early December, accounting for most of the cases recorded in China as a whole (population: 1.4 billion). The daily count in the United States (population: 330 million) for Tuesday exceeded one million for the first time in any country as Omicron surges.

The daily death toll in the US has averaged around 1,300 in December and early January bringing the overall death toll to well over 800,000. The total death toll in China since the COVID outbreak is less than 5,000—all but two occurred during the Wuhan outbreak in 2020. No deaths have been reported in Xi’an.
Lockdowns work but you have to undertake them in a rigorous and serious manner.

Because we have chosen to let the virus propagate and proliferate, we would not have the same success here, but we could lessen the misery and death and ease the strain on our NHS.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/0 ... n-j06.html
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:01 pm

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Look at China's results as compared to ours.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:55 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:01 pm
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Look at China's results as compared to ours.
Which results? I wouldn't want to live there, it's way too fashy.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by wilsontown » Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:31 pm

I'm all for not dying of covid, but lockdowns come with their own horrendous social and economic costs, and the more draconian the lockdown the greater those costs will be. Lockdowns in China appear to have been dramatically more draconian than pretty much everywhere else. You can't just evaluate the impact based on the advantages, you have to consider the costs as well.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:19 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:31 pm
I'm all for not dying of covid, but lockdowns come with their own horrendous social and economic costs, and the more draconian the lockdown the greater those costs will be. Lockdowns in China appear to have been dramatically more draconian than pretty much everywhere else. You can't just evaluate the impact based on the advantages, you have to consider the costs as well.
All interventions have side effects. We will have to wait and see and do a cost benefit analysis, the long term effects of lockdown vs 40% of the population with long term organ damage because of Long Covid.

150 000 deaths in the UK vs 5000 in China

The Chinese were smart enough to realize they couldn't do it with vaccination alone and have relied on other interventions including lockdown.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:16 pm

Where the f.ck did you get the idea that 40% of covid patients end up with long term organ damage?!
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by wilsontown » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:54 pm

Yes, I know that the forum encourages people to "bring your own statistics" but I don't think this is what was intended.
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:04 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:16 pm
Where the f.ck did you get the idea that 40% of covid patients end up with long term organ damage?!
From this thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1478 ... 37765.html

It said over 50% but if 20% of cases are asymptomatic, that comes out to about 40%. The thread details the myriad morbid conditions subsequent to even "mild" covid infections. It is pretty depressing stuff.`
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:09 pm

The commonest reported symptoms were fatigue, anxiety and brain fog - not necessarily evidence of organ damage. The continuing shortness of breath does sound worrying though.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:02 pm

(He did that thing of multiplying the most severe symptoms by the number of people suffering any symptoms which I warned against.)
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:51 pm

Yes. Obviously 40% of people don't get long term organ damage. I was just curious to see where the factoid originated.

Also worth noting that that study was in an unvaccinated population.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:52 am

Did you read that thread to the end? Some studies report up to 60 or 70% of recovered patients report symptoms. Of course not all symptom s are severe. Some of them are very severe.
This thread is long, and hard to read - not just because of the technical language, but because “it’s just a cold,” “the vaccine protects me,” and “at least our children are safe” are comforting fairy tales.
Increased mortality, vascular issues, organ damage, the list goes on and on.
SARS-CoV-2 is a systemic disease which has multiple avenues to induce long-term impairment, attacking the brain, heart, lungs, blood, testes, colon, liver, and lymph nodes, causing persistent symptoms in more than half of patients by six months out.
Let’s review - it’s autoimmune: SARS-CoV2 convinces our body to attack itself.

That might explain why the Arizona study saw more symptoms after 60 days than at 30 days.

It also means “natural immunity” isn’t something to count on.

But if you’re counting on vaccination to feel safe, there’s even more bad news.

A study of Israel healthcare workers found that “Most breakthrough cases were mild or asymptomatic, although 19% had persistent symptoms (>6 weeks).”


Perhaps the most terrifying study is from Oxford University, which examined the effects of vaccination on long COVID symptoms, because not only did it find that vaccination does not protect against Long Covid, but that Long Covid symptoms become more likely over time:

In the words of the study authors, “vaccination does not appear to be protective against .. long-COVID features, arrhythmia, joint pain, type 2 diabetes, liver disease, sleep disorders, and mood and anxiety disorders."


“The narrow confidence intervals rule out the possibility that these negative findings are merely a result of lack of statistical power. The inclusion of death in a composite endpoint with these outcomes rules out survivorship bias as an explanation.”
Since our vaccines don’t stop transmission, and don’t appear to stop long-term illness, a “vaccination only” strategy is not going to be sufficient to prevent mass disability.
Countries like China, New Zealand and South Korea that made concerted efforts to keep their populations safe are going to be so much healthier than the rest of us. The after effects of lockdown will be "mild" compared to the long term morbidity of "mild" covid cases.
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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by bob sterman » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:17 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:52 am
Did you read that thread to the end? Some studies report up to 60 or 70% of recovered patients report symptoms. Of course not all symptom s are severe. Some of them are very severe.
Perhaps the most terrifying study is from Oxford University, which examined the effects of vaccination on long COVID symptoms, because not only did it find that vaccination does not protect against Long Covid, but that Long Covid symptoms become more likely over time:

In the words of the study authors, “vaccination does not appear to be protective against .. long-COVID features, arrhythmia, joint pain, type 2 diabetes, liver disease, sleep disorders, and mood and anxiety disorders."

“The narrow confidence intervals rule out the possibility that these negative findings are merely a result of lack of statistical power. The inclusion of death in a composite endpoint with these outcomes rules out survivorship bias as an explanation.”
The software engineer who put that thread together (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1478 ... 37765.html) should get a job on a fruit farm - picking cherries!

Let's take that "terrifying" Oxford study as an example - it compared outcomes at 6 months in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals who had SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Apparently, the vaccinated individuals (who had COVID) were no less likely to have issues such as "joint pain, type 2 diabetes, liver disease, sleep disorders, and mood and anxiety disorders" than unvaccinated individuals (who had COVID).

Errrr...what about the prevalence of these issues in people who didn't have COVID???? There's a control group missing!

Let's take diabetes. In the Oxford study they reported (in their matched samples) Type 2 diabetes prevalence rates of 25.6% in the vaccinated, and 26.9% in the unvaccinated. Evidence of a terrifying failure of vaccines to prevent COVID-19 causing Type 2 diabetes???

Or simply evidence that if you grab a sample of people in their 50s, 60s and 70s in the USA (who have recently consulted a healthcare provider) about 25% will have Type 2 diabetes?

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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by headshot » Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:16 pm

Are the Twitterer and H one and the same? Both are breathless (pun intended) proponents for total unending lockdowns.

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Re: New lockdowns in China

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:35 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:16 pm
Are the Twitterer and H one and the same? Both are breathless (pun intended) proponents for total unending lockdowns.
I am no twitterer. I make no secret of the fact that I endorse lockdowns. I see no alternative. Others may differ. That is OK.
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