European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:33 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:05 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:35 pm
With respect to vaccination coverage, its not the just the proportion vaccinated, but the age distribution of the vaccinated. If you still have 10% of your over 50s unvaccinated, that may not seem like a huge number, but that is the cohort most at risk that fills up the hospitals.
Also important is the "one-minus" effect. A country with 70% of >12s vaccinated (i.e., 30% unvaccinated; Austria isn't much higher than that) is 3x as badly off as one with 90% of >12s vaccinated (e.g., Spain).
An oft overlooked point.
Austria has 64% (total population) fully vaccinated so that is 36% unvaccinated.
UK has 67% vaccinated so that is 33% unvaccinated.
Austria has 10% more unvaccinated people than UK.
Is that enough to make a big difference and prevent a fourth wave in UK?

Props to Spain for showing the rest of us how it is done.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:37 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:33 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:35 pm
headshot wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:07 pm
In a recent article about Saxony’s woes, I read that the regional health chief said “cases are probably three times as high as those reported”. I’m not sure what evidence he was using to support that claim.
I've seen five times quoted, but in the UK where we test a lot, three might be more reasonable.

With respect to vaccination coverage, its not the just the proportion vaccinated, but the age distribution of the vaccinated. If you still have 10% of your over 50s unvaccinated, that may not seem like a huge number, but that is the cohort most at risk that fills up the hospitals.

This is definitely an issue an Italy, which makes our CFR rather worse than the UK's. The relatively good coverage amongst younger people may have helped take the edge off the case rate though.

Cases started coming up again in mid October but I don't know if that's connected to in-presence working, or dance floor socialization (it's not just due to more testing for obligatory Green Passes). Outbreaks don't get on the news anymore.
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:35 pm
Then of course there is the time factor as vaccine immunity wanes quickly. A country that just finished a mass vaccination campaign will be in a better position than another that has been vaccinated for months.
Not that quickly, but then the UK did use rather a lot of AstraZeneca on older people.
So many confounding factors.
Is AZ that much worse?

I tell my friends not to go dancing, but they aren't anyway because it would be unethical to ban unvaccinated dancers...
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 5944
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by lpm » Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:38 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:23 pm
lpm wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:02 pm
What do we reckon the ratio of actual cases to confirmed cases is, though?

2 to 1? 3 to 1? Need to cover first wave failure to test, plus 50% asymptomatic, plus morons with symptoms not testing.

I'd say 10 million official cases is 30 million actual. Getting on for 50% of the UK.

80% vaccination plus 50% infection of the unvaccinated gives a load of protection, even though herd immunity is never possible due to vaccine effectiveness.
The first wave failure to test doesn't matter if you're comparing total cases now with total cases at the beginning of this year.

The rest of it matters less as long the countries which you're comparing have similar ratios.

Antibody surveys give an idea of the fraction of the population which has antibodies from the vaccine and/or the virus itself (these can be distinguished).

Within Europe we're seeing results which seem to quite sensitively depend on proportion vaccinated, or maybe proportion vaccinated just correlates with what sort of mandates are in place and how people are following them or if they'd rather all gather in the city and shout and break stuff.
The sensitivity is a puzzle.

The UK has given the virus every possible opportunity to go exponential again. The virus continually declines. So far.

Yet in Austria, Netherlands, it's given one chance and it takes it. Proper exponential like the virus's good old days.

On the face of it, 14% of the population officially infected looks similar to 12%. But multiply by 3x and 42% looks more different to 36%. Or 64% uninfected vs 58%.

Add in similar small differences for unvaxxed vs vaxxed.

But even so, it appears so strange that this is the difference between the UK's long plateau and Austria's sudden exponential.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

Millennie Al
After Pie
Posts: 1621
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 am

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:11 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:33 am
Some twitter about what's going wrong in Austria
TLDR: 8 of 9 states dropped their mask mandates.
Except that's extremely misleading. As she says further down the thread:
The PM declared the pandemic over in July, because he didn't bother to listen to the experts,
and he wanted nice messages that framed him as the saviour of the country, and also this, like everything else in Austria, was done with "What can we do to get the tourists to come to us" in mind. Subsequently, eight of the nine states dropped their mask mandates.
so, despite the original implication, the problem was nothing to do with masks but with wanting to encourage tourism (and, presumably, succeeding). I expect that further investigation would reveal that the mask mandate was far from the only change.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2553
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:46 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:33 pm
Austria has 64% (total population) fully vaccinated so that is 36% unvaccinated.
UK has 67% vaccinated so that is 33% unvaccinated.
Austria has 10% more unvaccinated people than UK.
Is that enough to make a big difference and prevent a fourth wave in UK?
The UK is already having its 4th wave (unless its the 3rd wave); it has been ongoing since July. The area under the curve is already huge (4 million cases and 20,000 deaths), but the media need novelty, so a spike somewhere is more "interesting" than a huge lump that isn't changing much.
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:07 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:46 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:33 pm
Austria has 64% (total population) fully vaccinated so that is 36% unvaccinated.
UK has 67% vaccinated so that is 33% unvaccinated.
Austria has 10% more unvaccinated people than UK.
Is that enough to make a big difference and prevent a fourth wave in UK?
The UK is already having its 4th wave (unless its the 3rd wave); it has been ongoing since July. The area under the curve is already huge (4 million cases and 20,000 deaths), but the media need novelty, so a spike somewhere is more "interesting" than a huge lump that isn't changing much.
We still don't really know why the UK's case rate kept peaking and going down again. Austria is already well over the UK's peak case rate (even if the doubling time looks roughly similar to what the UK had in July when everyone said there'd soon be 100,000 cases per day). Maybe your pingdemics actually work (but you're still meeting your target of killing more than 1000 people per week). I haven't heard of anyone being pang off the Italian app for ages, and certainly nobody I know, but then our case rate is still relatively low (although I remember when this map was pale yellow/green everywhere apart from one or two hotspots).

I'm not sure how to get to the data on the Austrian covid page which would indicate how homogeneous the vaccination coverage is.

Germany's dashboard - the health minister said that everyone will either have “been vaccinated, recovered or died” by the end of winter.

I hope if Italy is going to implement a "2G"* rule (i.e. negative tests are no longer enough for access to non-essential things) let alone a lockdown for the unvaccinated, that it does it soon and not barely a few days before a full lockdown is needed. Lombardy's hospital occupancy is well below the threshold for Yellow Zone but of course it's started going up now to match the way cases are going up (with a doubling time of less than two weeks). As I noted ages ago, if you wait for the hospital occupancy to go up before ordering restrictions instead of looking at the case rate and making a prediction about the hospitalization rate, you'll be two weeks late with your mandates and will end up needing stricter ones. But then people obviously need to see the bodies piling up before they agree with lockdowns and even then some will complain because they are stupid f.cking morons.

(* - this only works in the Germanic languages whose past participles tend to begin with the ge- prefix)
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:37 pm
So many confounding factors.
Is AZ that much worse?
As far as I know, it's less effective (than Pfizer or Moderna) to start with but I don't have in mind if it falls off faster.
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:37 pm
I tell my friends not to go dancing, but they aren't anyway because it would be unethical to ban unvaccinated dancers...
It helps that there's an actual law in place here, so that the organizers of lessons or events can say that they (we) "have to" ask for Green Passes. Discussions are underway to make a Green Pass from a negative test insufficient for this sort of thing.

Given the choice is between doing it with Green Passes, and not doing it at all, the whole idea of the Green Pass "limiting our freedoms" is f.cking stupid. My personal view is that I know this is risky, but I'm as protected (by vaccination) as I could ever reasonably be, and I want to get on with the things I enjoy. There's probably more risk to me on the highway driving to/from Milan than on the dancefloor as a healthy vaccinated person. And less than two months of dance evenings being a thing again already feels like it's had noticeable benefits to my personal health.

I had a routine checkup with my doctor on Friday (we need a medical certificate to do things like gym or sports classes, including dancing, and that applies to teachers as well as club members; the tricky part is you need to get yourself an EKG too) and I had the impression that when I mentioned I needed it for dancing she couldn't open the door and get me out of there quickly enough.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:41 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm
...Given the choice is between doing it with Green Passes, and not doing it at all, the whole idea of the Green Pass "limiting our freedoms" is f.cking stupid...
Someone who took part in some of the protests a while ago, shouting "freedom" and being antivax, was there on Saturday night; I didn't ask what kind of Green Pass she'd got in with, but I note that if someone boycotts events like this because they don't like being told to get a Green Pass (preferably from vaccination) then the one who loses out is them.

There's still about 1.4 million in the 50-59 age range (>14% of them) in Italy who haven't even had a single dose, presumably doing regular tests instead. What's the IFR in that age range?

(People who refuse the vaccine because they don't understand the idea of protecting themselves as well as other people obviously don't understand that testing literally only protects other people.)
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
Sciolus
Dorkwood
Posts: 1313
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Sciolus » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:46 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm
Discussions are underway to make a Green Pass from a negative test insufficient for this sort of thing.
What's the rationale for that? Surely what you care about is whether people are infectious, and a negative test (assuming it's not just self-reported) is a much better indicator of that that having been vaccinated or recovered.

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:49 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:46 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm
Discussions are underway to make a Green Pass from a negative test insufficient for this sort of thing.
What's the rationale for that? Surely what you care about is whether people are infectious, and a negative test (assuming it's not just self-reported) is a much better indicator of that that having been vaccinated or recovered.
To encourage more vaccination when about 3 million over-50's still haven't had a single dose.

We also care about people not being so vulnerable to other people's infections.

Actually no we don't, we care about people not clogging up the hospitals and mortuaries.

ETA maybe we don't actually care about the mortuaries, once they're dead they're their own problem, not the health service's.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
Sciolus
Dorkwood
Posts: 1313
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Sciolus » Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:46 pm

Mmm, that's getting a bit coercive; see other thread.

Personally I'd be happy for unvaxxed people* to go straight from 112 call to mortuary, bypassing any medical care, but some people seem a bit more squeamish.

WFJ
Catbabel
Posts: 648
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:54 am

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by WFJ » Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:16 pm

German states are now starting to move towards 2G+ rules. Meaning a negative test is needed (only LF required, but from a recognised test centre) in addition to being vaccinated or recovered in order to enter restaurants, events etc.

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:37 pm
So many confounding factors.
Is AZ that much worse?
As far as I know, it's less effective (than Pfizer or Moderna) to start with but I don't have in mind if it falls off faster.
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:37 pm
I tell my friends not to go dancing, but they aren't anyway because it would be unethical to ban unvaccinated dancers...
It helps that there's an actual law in place here, so that the organizers of lessons or events can say that they (we) "have to" ask for Green Passes. Discussions are underway to make a Green Pass from a negative test insufficient for this sort of thing.

Given the choice is between doing it with Green Passes, and not doing it at all, the whole idea of the Green Pass "limiting our freedoms" is f.cking stupid. My personal view is that I know this is risky, but I'm as protected (by vaccination) as I could ever reasonably be, and I want to get on with the things I enjoy. There's probably more risk to me on the highway driving to/from Milan than on the dancefloor as a healthy vaccinated person. And less than two months of dance evenings being a thing again already feels like it's had noticeable benefits to my personal health.

I had a routine checkup with my doctor on Friday (we need a medical certificate to do things like gym or sports classes, including dancing, and that applies to teachers as well as club members; the tricky part is you need to get yourself an EKG too) and I had the impression that when I mentioned I needed it for dancing she couldn't open the door and get me out of there quickly enough.
AZ efficacy with time.
Alas, in this study at least, the AstraZeneca vaccine kept reducing in its efficacy: by 20 weeks, its protection against severe disease was as low as 60 per cent.

What about the longer term? Does AstraZeneca just wane and wane to absolute zero? Or does its efficacy drop for a while and then level out like the mRNA vaccines? The authors did some extrapolation: they produced models of what their data predicted would happen in future. This is educated guesswork, but nevertheless: one of their models implied AstraZeneca would keep declining to the point that, by 30 weeks (almost seven months), people who got it would have essentially no difference in risk from someone who hadn’t been vaccinated at all. This seems unlikely to be true, but the fact that the data even points in this direction should make us concerned about the AstraZeneca shot in the long term.
https://www.newstatesman.com/health-sci ... ity-better
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
bob sterman
Dorkwood
Posts: 1123
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm
Location: Location Location

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by bob sterman » Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:25 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:06 pm
AZ efficacy with time.
Alas, in this study at least, the AstraZeneca vaccine kept reducing in its efficacy: by 20 weeks, its protection against severe disease was as low as 60 per cent.

What about the longer term? Does AstraZeneca just wane and wane to absolute zero? Or does its efficacy drop for a while and then level out like the mRNA vaccines? The authors did some extrapolation: they produced models of what their data predicted would happen in future. This is educated guesswork, but nevertheless: one of their models implied AstraZeneca would keep declining to the point that, by 30 weeks (almost seven months), people who got it would have essentially no difference in risk from someone who hadn’t been vaccinated at all. This seems unlikely to be true, but the fact that the data even points in this direction should make us concerned about the AstraZeneca shot in the long term.
https://www.newstatesman.com/health-sci ... ity-better
The New Statesman article has mixed up the values for "severe COVID" which only includes "cases with entry to critical care or fatal outcome" and the broader category of "hospitalised or fatal COVID" which are treated differently in the pre-print it refers to,,,
In the 42-day time window centred on 20 weeks from second dose, the efficacy of the AstraZeneca product against severe COVID-19 is 69% (95 percent CI 52% to 80%) but the efficacy of mRNA vaccines is 93% (95 percent CI 88% to 96%). For efficacy against hospitalised or fatal COVID-19 at 20 weeks from second dose the corresponding estimates were 58% (95 percent CI 50% to 65%) and 89% (95 percent CI 86% to 91%).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21263448v2

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1414
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by headshot » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:38 pm

WFJ wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:16 pm
German states are now starting to move towards 2G+ rules. Meaning a negative test is needed (only LF required, but from a recognised test centre) in addition to being vaccinated or recovered in order to enter restaurants, events etc.
Got a source for that. We haven’t seen any news on that yet.

WFJ
Catbabel
Posts: 648
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:54 am

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by WFJ » Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:21 am

headshot wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:38 pm
WFJ wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:16 pm
German states are now starting to move towards 2G+ rules. Meaning a negative test is needed (only LF required, but from a recognised test centre) in addition to being vaccinated or recovered in order to enter restaurants, events etc.
Got a source for that. We haven’t seen any news on that yet.
It depends on the state. Bavaria, Baden Württemberg and Rheinland Pfalz have announced they are bringing in 2G+ under certain circumstances this week. Others will likely follow, and the types of businesses it will apply to will also likely be expanded.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2553
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:51 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm
I had a routine checkup with my doctor on Friday (we need a medical certificate to do things like gym or sports classes, including dancing, and that applies to teachers as well as club members; the tricky part is you need to get yourself an EKG too) and I had the impression that when I mentioned I needed it for dancing she couldn't open the door and get me out of there quickly enough.
I genuinely don't know what that last bit means. Because she was so happy for you to be dancing, or because she thought you were an idiot?
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:12 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:51 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm
I had a routine checkup with my doctor on Friday (we need a medical certificate to do things like gym or sports classes, including dancing, and that applies to teachers as well as club members; the tricky part is you need to get yourself an EKG too) and I had the impression that when I mentioned I needed it for dancing she couldn't open the door and get me out of there quickly enough.
I genuinely don't know what that last bit means. Because she was so happy for you to be dancing, or because she thought you were an idiot?
Likely that she considers my hobby/side hussle a stupid thing to be doing such that I might have been an asymptomatic carrier.

(When all three doses of the vaccine have given me an obvious fever I doubt I'd have gotten away with being completely asymptomatic to the covids.)
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:22 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:12 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:51 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:33 pm
I had a routine checkup with my doctor on Friday (we need a medical certificate to do things like gym or sports classes, including dancing, and that applies to teachers as well as club members; the tricky part is you need to get yourself an EKG too) and I had the impression that when I mentioned I needed it for dancing she couldn't open the door and get me out of there quickly enough.
I genuinely don't know what that last bit means. Because she was so happy for you to be dancing, or because she thought you were an idiot?
Likely that she considers my hobby/side hussle a stupid thing to be doing such that I might have been an asymptomatic carrier.

(When all three doses of the vaccine have given me an obvious fever I doubt I'd have gotten away with being completely asymptomatic to the covids.)
Nothing personal, but I sympathize with your doctor.
I do respect your right to take your own risks and I hope you don't get sick.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:34 pm

I get that, and I remember that I used to be snarky about news stories along the lines of "[we took all the precautions when doing this obviously risky thing / the government said it was safe to do this obviously risky thing / I didn't do any risky things apart from this one risky thing] and then I caught covid what are the chances" but the difference now is that I'm about as protected as I'm ever going to be, and it's not like we can wait for covid to go away.

My risk of a serious outcome from covid is some small fraction of a percent, and if I inadvertently transmit it to someone unvaccinated at a dance event while asymptomatic/presymptomatic, well, that was their decision to show up unvaccinated.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:50 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:34 pm
I get that, and I remember that I used to be snarky about news stories along the lines of "[we took all the precautions when doing this obviously risky thing / the government said it was safe to do this obviously risky thing / I didn't do any risky things apart from this one risky thing] and then I caught covid what are the chances" but the difference now is that I'm about as protected as I'm ever going to be, and it's not like we can wait for covid to go away.

My risk of a serious outcome from covid is some small fraction of a percent, and if I inadvertently transmit it to someone unvaccinated at a dance event while asymptomatic/presymptomatic, well, that was their decision to show up unvaccinated.
Like I said, I respect your decision .
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:10 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 11:18 am
I wonder whether this 2G status thing in Germany is potentially driving infection rates higher.

The law there states that recovered people can have as much freedom as those who are fully vaccinated. Is there an unintended consequence where anti-vax people are purposefully getting infected to get their 2G status?
Well, it turns out that no-vaxxers really are that stupid.

“Seeking a covid-19 positive, in low Piedmont or Liguria, willing to immunize me with the original Covid. I'm willing to pay, to be negotiated. If interested I'll pass on my mobile number in private. I need it for work. At the moment I'm suspended without pay”.

It also mentions that "Corona parties" are becoming a thing in Germany and Austria (and the bit of Italy which is basically Austria); in Austria a 55-year-old man died after deliberately getting himself infected.

A virus which killed stupid people would be great if it had no collateral effects.

So Austria's now in total lockdown which means they can have their illegal covid parties in an illegal way and when they get seriously ill the hospitals will be too full so they'll die; meanwhile everyone else is relatively safely vaccinated and locked down...
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1414
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by headshot » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:41 pm

Yep. Not the first I've heard about it unfortunately. Germany has some areas of its society that embrace some serious woo.

Apropos of nothing: Frau HS works in a university library as an information specialist, and today she found out that her Deptartmental Head has refused the vaccine because she's "waiting for the evidence of its effectiveness and risks"...she's the head of a f.cking university library and a team information specialists! Maybe ask them to do a search of relevant papers.

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:00 pm

Meanwhile I've just found the AGENAS portal which monitors Italian hospital occupancy - there's pages for the regions available via a drop-down menu if you click on the ≡.

Lombardy is at 4% intensive care and 11% non critical occupancy, against a national average of 6% and 8% respectively.

Friuli-Venezia-Giulia is at 14% and 18%.

They've put Yellow, Orange, Red, and f.cking Hell on the scale. The text of the law they cite says:
White Zone means <50/100,000/week case rate, or if it's more than that, less than 15% non-critical occupancy, or if it's more than that, less than 10% ICU occupancy.

Yellow Zone means 50-150/100,000/week case rate, unless the occupancy figures for White Zone haven't both been breached. If the case rate is >150/100,000/week then it stays Yellow as long as the non-critical occupancy is less than 30% or the ICU occupancy is less than 20%.

Orange Zone means >150/100,000/week unless the previous occupancy figures haven't been breached.

Red Zone means >150/100,000/week and both >40% non-critical occupancy and >30% ICU occupancy.
... so maybe the colours on the scale will change when the region in question goes above 150/100,000/week (but while Italy is at 115, and Lombardy is at 110, FGV is already at 315...)

Yeah I can't work out why FGV is still considered a White Zone, it's been above 150/100,000/week for a few weeks; maybe it's that non-critical occupancy only went over 15% about 5 days ago so it'll be this weeks monitoring which changes its Zone.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:31 pm

John Bern Murdoch again with a good twitter thread

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2212886530
The answer:

UK’s July reopening led to much more of its population being infected than elsewhere in western Europe. Between vax and infection-acquired immunity, UK has more protection, Europe has more susceptible people.
Despite UK having lower vax coverage than e.g Belgium & France, the difference in share of people previously infected is larger (UK 30%, FRA 15%), meaning that going into this winter, the UK had fewer people still exposed to the virus, less scope for a wave of hospitalisations.

This filled gaps in the UK’s vax coverage, leaving very few completely unprotected.

In Germany, lower vax rates and less infection-acq immunity mean far more ongoing exposure.

In Romania, despite huge numbers of past infections, gaps in elderly vax coverage left huge exposure.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

Post Reply