European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:53 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:31 pm
John Bern Murdoch again with a good twitter thread

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2212886530
The answer:

UK’s July reopening led to much more of its population being infected than elsewhere in western Europe. Between vax and infection-acquired immunity, UK has more protection, Europe has more susceptible people.
Despite UK having lower vax coverage than e.g Belgium & France, the difference in share of people previously infected is larger (UK 30%, FRA 15%), meaning that going into this winter, the UK had fewer people still exposed to the virus, less scope for a wave of hospitalisations.

This filled gaps in the UK’s vax coverage, leaving very few completely unprotected.

In Germany, lower vax rates and less infection-acq immunity mean far more ongoing exposure.

In Romania, despite huge numbers of past infections, gaps in elderly vax coverage left huge exposure.
Some very nice graphs in there, and the effects of boosting the UK's elderly population seem to be quite clear.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:43 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:53 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:31 pm
John Bern Murdoch again with a good twitter thread

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2212886530
Some very nice graphs in there, and the effects of boosting the UK's elderly population seem to be quite clear.
The graphs are nice, but JBM does quite a lot of story-telling with not a great deal of evidence. Some of his post hoc ergo propter hoc inferences are not too far off the ones made by ivermectin fans. Everything about Covid is multiply determined, as one would expect, and any given factor is not going to explain all of the variance.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:47 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:22 pm
Nothing personal, but I sympathize with your doctor.
I do respect your right to take your own risks and I hope you don't get sick.
While I find the calculation of microcovids to be complex and probably rather unreliable, I do like the idea for its metaphorical value. Mrs sTeamTraen and I sometimes find ourselves saying something like "Not something worth expending the microcovids on" when declining this or that opportunity for social interaction.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:41 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:43 pm
shpalman wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:53 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:31 pm
John Bern Murdoch again with a good twitter thread

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2212886530
Some very nice graphs in there, and the effects of boosting the UK's elderly population seem to be quite clear.
The graphs are nice, but JBM does quite a lot of story-telling with not a great deal of evidence. Some of his post hoc ergo propter hoc inferences are not too far off the ones made by ivermectin fans. Everything about Covid is multiply determined, as one would expect, and any given factor is not going to explain all of the variance.
Is there something in particular that you are referring to here?
You are good at spotting these kinds of things, let us know what you think.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:56 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:43 pm
shpalman wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:53 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:31 pm
John Bern Murdoch again with a good twitter thread

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2212886530
Some very nice graphs in there, and the effects of boosting the UK's elderly population seem to be quite clear.
The graphs are nice, but JBM does quite a lot of story-telling with not a great deal of evidence. Some of his post hoc ergo propter hoc inferences are not too far off the ones made by ivermectin fans. Everything about Covid is multiply determined, as one would expect, and any given factor is not going to explain all of the variance.
Deaths per day seem somewhat lower this week than they were last week. About 200 were reported on each of Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday last week, while the same days this week average at 153. It's maybe a bit more of a drop than you'd expect looking at the local minimum of cases at the beginning of November, so it will be interesting to follow that trend over the next few weeks, see if goes back to drifting upwards to maintain the UK target of killing 1000 a week.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by temptar » Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:40 pm

Our night clubs in BE are to close and the opening hours will be restricted on the rest of the food/drink sector. Still appear to have a Christmas Market but it is miserable here today anyway.

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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:33 pm

Friuli-Venezia-Giulia will (obviously) be a Yellow Zone as of Monday.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:44 pm

Some cities in Lombardy are mandating masks while outside in the busier shopping parts of their centres.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Brightonian » Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:26 pm


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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:43 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:33 pm
Friuli-Venezia-Giulia will (obviously) be a Yellow Zone as of Monday.
Bolzano is now a Yellow Zone too; being an autonomous province they have a bit of flexibility of how they implement that but quite a few councils were already Red Zones and FFP2 masks are required or something. They're at 14% intensive care occupancy and 19% non critical occupancy, and a 670/100,000/week incidence.

Do you lot have an idea of how the numbers at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare compare to capacity?
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:46 pm

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:30 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:43 am
Do you lot have an idea of how the numbers at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare compare to capacity?
England has a bot over 7,000 critical care beds. See https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... s-2020-21/ for data and occupancy figures up to April

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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:38 am

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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Mon Dec 13, 2021 2:13 am

Austria reduces lockdown for the vaccinated.
Austria has ended lockdown restrictions for vaccinated people across most of the country, three weeks after reimposing strict rules to combat a rising wave of coronavirus infections.

The rules, which vary by region within the country, largely allow for the reopening of theatres, museums and other cultural and entertainment venues on Sunday. Shops will follow on Monday.
However...
Hospitalisations from the virus have not dropped as sharply as new case numbers. There are currently 567 coronavirus patients in intensive care units across the country, only slightly down from 572 on the first day of the lockdown last month.
Once again. The urge to open too soon..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ted-people
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:57 am

The Dutch are going back into lockdown, not a minute too soon, but maybe not strict enough.


The Netherlands has become the first EU country to re-enter a strict nationwide lockdown, in a response to the spread of the Omicron Covid-19 variant that will shutter swaths of the economy until at least mid-January.

Tough new restrictions to close all bars, restaurants, non-essential shops, cinemas, and gyms will kick in from Sunday morning and last until at least January 14. Professional sports events will take place without crowds and homes can invite a maximum of four guests during the Christmas period, to be reduced to two after the holidays.
https://www.ft.com/content/7264aae6-f22 ... 8c701b99bb
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:48 pm

Even Sweden introduces tighter restrictions despite "not locking down and it was fine" or whatever it was.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Aoui » Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:44 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:57 am
The Dutch are going back into lockdown, not a minute too soon, but maybe not strict enough.

Most everything is shut except for grocery stores, drug stores and apotheken (drug stores have over the counter stuff and a myriad of other crap and apotheken are where you go to get prescription medication and a few over the counter things). Restaurants are allowed to deliver. Stores can do "click and collect" which is online shopping and you go pick it up at a prescribed time and you usually don't go inside the shop at all. Most schools are closed and those that aren't will have vacation after Friday. The positive rate has dropped significantly since they did this, but people are pretty angry about it. They don't seem to realize or care what is coming at them like a freight train. Our big problem is that the government has tended to wait until too late and doesn't enforce much of anything. If they say "we aren't going to shut down" you can figure there is an 80% chance they will do so a week later. This is the very first time they've decided not to wait until things were totally out of control. I can say that almost no Dutch people I know are planning to stick to the rules of only 4 people visiting at Xmas. A few will, but very few. They shut grade schools to keep kids away from each other so they wouldn't spread things to their grandparents. So of course, the majority of parents who had to work just sent those kids to their grandparents. A good number of my colleauges keep their grandkids for one or two days a week and a lock down isn't going to change that. The system here is literally set up with that in mind (which makes things rather more difficult for immigrants with no family nearby). However, I did just read that someone I know who works in a group home for people with some pretty severe disabilities is one of the 2 out of 10 people who work there that don't have corona right now. All the clients are in quarantine (in their rooms) and I have no idea if she is just going to have to stay there for the next five days (without a bed) or if they will be able to find people to come in and help (though she works with a group that really needs trusted people that the clients know) or if they'll make them come in sick (which is what happened in the first round of lockdowns in a few apartments where I work). I suspect this means it's all starting to kick off then....

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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:11 pm

To protest the new requirement that diners will need negative tests to access restaurants, many restaurants in Portugal are, um, closing entirely.

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/20 ... test/64285
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Opti » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:22 pm

Great idea!!!
.
.
.
.

Oh, wait.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:00 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:11 pm
To protest the new requirement that diners will need negative tests to access restaurants, many restaurants in Portugal are, um, closing entirely.

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/20 ... test/64285
To be fair, if 97% of potential customers are excluded by the difficulty of getting a recent negative test (especially over the holiday period) it might make economic sense not to open. It must feel like a kick in the teeth, especially since something like 98% of Portuguese adults are fully vaccinated.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:21 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:00 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:11 pm
To protest the new requirement that diners will need negative tests to access restaurants, many restaurants in Portugal are, um, closing entirely.

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/20 ... test/64285
To be fair, if 97% of potential customers are excluded by the difficulty of getting a recent negative test (especially over the holiday period) it might make economic sense not to open. It must feel like a kick in the teeth, especially since something like 98% of Portuguese adults are fully vaccinated.
Heartening to see authorities go through with this tough policy, but very tough to see restaurants suffer through no fault of their own
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:20 am

Germany reports record rise of 112,323 new cases
Germany is reporting a daily rise of more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases.
NO.

Germany recorded 112,323 new coronavirus cases. This is either a rise of 19,839 compared to yesterday's new case count of 92,484 (although comparing case numbers and deaths from one day to the next is a different stupid thing which the Guardian also does) or we should talk about the rise/fall of however many people are currently infected but of course that's something else.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:02 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:20 am
Germany reports record rise of 112,323 new cases
Germany is reporting a daily rise of more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases.
NO.

Germany recorded 112,323 new coronavirus cases. This is either a rise of 19,839 compared to yesterday's new case count of 92,484 (although comparing case numbers and deaths from one day to the next is a different stupid thing which the Guardian also does) or we should talk about the rise/fall of however many people are currently infected but of course that's something else.
Maybe you could apply for the position of Chief Pedant.
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Re: European lockdowns - autumn 2021 edition

Post by shpalman » Sun Feb 06, 2022 5:21 pm

Italy's 7-day average new cases per day just dropped below 100,000 (it went over 100,000 right at New Year and peaked over 170,000 in mid January). Seems to be roughly halving every fortnight. Test positivity rate is falling too - now it's less than 12% when it peaked over 17% - so it's not just fewer tests being done.

Hospital occupancy seems to be dropping too, which is the important thing, since hospital can help people as long as there's capacity. Deaths (370-380 per day) don't seem to be that important, which is maybe fair enough, because they're either the holdout unvaccinated or the ones in such bad health (or just old enough) that even the vaccination can't save them, at which point there isn't much else we can do. But deaths are coming down in Lombardy and seem roughly stable in Italy overall.

Italy always reports relatively low case numbers on Sunday and Monday though.

Next weekend a lot of restrictions are going to be lifted, or at least the one I care about is going to be lifted: we'll be able to go dancing.

So I washed and ironed a lot of white shirts today.
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