UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
User avatar
Grumble
Light of Blast
Posts: 4746
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by Grumble » Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:34 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:18 pm
No new Covid restrictions before Christmas, Boris Johnson confirms
Ministers will not introduce any new Covid restrictions before Christmas in England, Boris Johnson has confirmed, saying there is not a high enough pile of bodies to justify tougher measures.
Wasn't it the case over the summer that Wednesdays were the "f.cking hell" day for case numbers?
It’s been five days over 90,000 new cases and hospitals aren’t seeing the effects yet, relax.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8244
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:38 pm

can't even keep the trains running

How's keeping everything open working out then?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

KAJ
Fuzzable
Posts: 310
Joined: Thu Nov 14, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: UK

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by KAJ » Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:24 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:18 pm
<snip>
Wasn't it the case over the summer that Wednesdays were the "f.cking hell" day for case numbers?
Don't take this as at all authoritative, but my routine daily data processing of cases by publish date over the latest 6 weeks suggests the worst days are Thursday and Friday (red line is 7 day moving average, dashed line is model fit with 'day' term fixed).
PubCases.png
PubCases.png (37.73 KiB) Viewed 1371 times

Code: Select all

At 21/12 fit = 88391.7 with doubling time = 13.1 days. That time halving in 16.0 days 

Analysis of Variance Table

Response: log(PubCases)
              Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq  F value    Pr(>F)    
poly(date, 2)  2 2.78537 1.39268 168.5722 < 2.2e-16 ***
day            6 0.20343 0.03390   4.1039  0.003486 ** 
Residuals     33 0.27263 0.00826                       
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Coefficients:
               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)    10.72471    0.03713 288.865  < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)1  1.56332    0.09216  16.964  < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)2  0.70616    0.09093   7.766 6.01e-09 ***
dayMon          0.09302    0.05249   1.772 0.085621 .  
dayTue          0.02999    0.05254   0.571 0.571920    
dayWed          0.11780    0.05269   2.236 0.032265 *  
dayThu          0.19741    0.05260   3.753 0.000674 ***
dayFri          0.19247    0.05253   3.664 0.000864 ***
daySat          0.06792    0.05249   1.294 0.204678    
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.09089 on 33 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.9164

User avatar
bob sterman
Dorkwood
Posts: 1123
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm
Location: Location Location

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by bob sterman » Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:03 am

Just heard someone who I think was a clergy person - on the radio - saying they were going ahead with their superspreader event (sorry - Christmas choir concert) and they weren't worried about the choir transmitting the virus while singing - because "they are all highly trained singers - and what comes out is mostly sound".

User avatar
Grumble
Light of Blast
Posts: 4746
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by Grumble » Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:31 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:03 am
Just heard someone who I think was a clergy person - on the radio - saying they were going ahead with their superspreader event (sorry - Christmas choir concert) and they weren't worried about the choir transmitting the virus while singing - because "they are all highly trained singers - and what comes out is mostly sound".
Bet you can’t blow out a candle whilst singing.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

FlammableFlower
Dorkwood
Posts: 1508
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:43 pm

Government announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.

UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...

UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by Herainestold » Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:27 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:43 pm
Government announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.

UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...

UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.
They should be doubling it. In Hong Kong the quarantine period is three weeks.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

raven
Catbabel
Posts: 645
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:58 pm

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by raven » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:05 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:43 pm
Government announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.

UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...

UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.
Typical of Boris.

I can see why they're dropping it to 7 days; they're clearly worried about too many key workers being affected at once and everything grinding to a halt. I suppose two negative LFTs is some sort of safeguard, but there will be people who're incubating it unwittingly I'm sure. Iirc, the original incubation period was 2-14 days with a median of 5 or 6, & I've heard of people picking it up from family members after the 10 days...

But perhaps that's uncommon enough to risk it when balanced against the sheer numbers who could be self-isolating come the second week of January.

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1414
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined

Post by headshot » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:41 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:30 am
To answer the OP’s question: Frau HS and my Christmas is now ruined.

Saxony is in a really bad place (over 2000 cases per 100k in the Erzgebirge region) which see no signs of changing in the short-medium term. The in-laws aren’t very keen on us travelling through Frankfurt to get there then spending full days inside their home. Our accommodation might not even be allowed to open anyway. And all the fun things we had planned (Christmas market, ice skating etc) are not possible because it’s all been cancelled.

So Christmas at home it is…

I was really looking forward to getting out of Little England for a bit too. Ugh.
Well, we had a nice day with my dad. We hosted and cooked for him.

However, to add insult to injury around our cancelled Germany trip, Dresden had a white Christmas!
14DC850A-0A3F-44D1-9002-60F49B307928.jpeg
14DC850A-0A3F-44D1-9002-60F49B307928.jpeg (252.6 KiB) Viewed 1108 times
74C5CA16-B07F-453F-8D36-B868548C7595.jpeg
74C5CA16-B07F-453F-8D36-B868548C7595.jpeg (492.2 KiB) Viewed 1108 times

Post Reply