It’s been five days over 90,000 new cases and hospitals aren’t seeing the effects yet, relax.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:18 pmNo new Covid restrictions before Christmas, Boris Johnson confirms
Wasn't it the case over the summer that Wednesdays were the "f.cking hell" day for case numbers?Ministers will not introduce any new Covid restrictions before Christmas in England, Boris Johnson has confirmed, saying there is not a high enough pile of bodies to justify tougher measures.
UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
- shpalman
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Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
Don't take this as at all authoritative, but my routine daily data processing of cases by publish date over the latest 6 weeks suggests the worst days are Thursday and Friday (red line is 7 day moving average, dashed line is model fit with 'day' term fixed).
Code: Select all
At 21/12 fit = 88391.7 with doubling time = 13.1 days. That time halving in 16.0 days
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: log(PubCases)
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
poly(date, 2) 2 2.78537 1.39268 168.5722 < 2.2e-16 ***
day 6 0.20343 0.03390 4.1039 0.003486 **
Residuals 33 0.27263 0.00826
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 10.72471 0.03713 288.865 < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)1 1.56332 0.09216 16.964 < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)2 0.70616 0.09093 7.766 6.01e-09 ***
dayMon 0.09302 0.05249 1.772 0.085621 .
dayTue 0.02999 0.05254 0.571 0.571920
dayWed 0.11780 0.05269 2.236 0.032265 *
dayThu 0.19741 0.05260 3.753 0.000674 ***
dayFri 0.19247 0.05253 3.664 0.000864 ***
daySat 0.06792 0.05249 1.294 0.204678
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.09089 on 33 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9164
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Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
Just heard someone who I think was a clergy person - on the radio - saying they were going ahead with their superspreader event (sorry - Christmas choir concert) and they weren't worried about the choir transmitting the virus while singing - because "they are all highly trained singers - and what comes out is mostly sound".
Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
Bet you can’t blow out a candle whilst singing.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:03 amJust heard someone who I think was a clergy person - on the radio - saying they were going ahead with their superspreader event (sorry - Christmas choir concert) and they weren't worried about the choir transmitting the virus while singing - because "they are all highly trained singers - and what comes out is mostly sound".
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
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Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
Government announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.
UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...
UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.
UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...
UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.
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Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
They should be doubling it. In Hong Kong the quarantine period is three weeks.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:43 pmGovernment announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.
UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...
UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
Typical of Boris.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:43 pmGovernment announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.
UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...
UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.
I can see why they're dropping it to 7 days; they're clearly worried about too many key workers being affected at once and everything grinding to a halt. I suppose two negative LFTs is some sort of safeguard, but there will be people who're incubating it unwittingly I'm sure. Iirc, the original incubation period was 2-14 days with a median of 5 or 6, & I've heard of people picking it up from family members after the 10 days...
But perhaps that's uncommon enough to risk it when balanced against the sheer numbers who could be self-isolating come the second week of January.
Re: UK Christmas 2021 is Saved/Ruined
Well, we had a nice day with my dad. We hosted and cooked for him.headshot wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:30 amTo answer the OP’s question: Frau HS and my Christmas is now ruined.
Saxony is in a really bad place (over 2000 cases per 100k in the Erzgebirge region) which see no signs of changing in the short-medium term. The in-laws aren’t very keen on us travelling through Frankfurt to get there then spending full days inside their home. Our accommodation might not even be allowed to open anyway. And all the fun things we had planned (Christmas market, ice skating etc) are not possible because it’s all been cancelled.
So Christmas at home it is…
I was really looking forward to getting out of Little England for a bit too. Ugh.
However, to add insult to injury around our cancelled Germany trip, Dresden had a white Christmas!