B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:24 pm

Found one in Italy.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Stranger Mouse » Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:45 pm

I presume its everywhere now.

I’m not eligible for my booster until late December. I was planning on getting it in January thinking that a slightly longer gap may give the protection slightly more longevity but to be honest I’d probably take it tomorrow now if it was offered. I care for an oldie and am terrified that I could be the stepping stone the viral nanobastard could use to get to her.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:45 pm
I presume its everywhere now.
If it has indeed been all over the southern third of Africa for many weeks/months and nobody noticed any change in infections or deaths up to now, what exactly is the problem?

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Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:43 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:32 pm
Good summary by some experts

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... time-on-t/
Featuring (I believe, unless my memory is doing The Things again) a contribution by mikeh, formerly of this parish. (Hope this is not doxxing.)
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Stranger Mouse » Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:48 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:45 pm
I presume its everywhere now.
If it has indeed been all over the southern third of Africa for many weeks/months and nobody noticed any change in infections or deaths up to now, what exactly is the problem?


c4141754-bc0f-4c51-97db-dc39a2aed23f.png
I’m meant more that I expect many countries have been seeded rather than anything else
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by bob sterman » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:03 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:45 pm
I presume its everywhere now.
If it has indeed been all over the southern third of Africa for many weeks/months and nobody noticed any change in infections or deaths up to now, what exactly is the problem?
In this context it is worth noting that both cases and deaths (per capita) are currently considerably lower in South Africa than in the UK.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 am

Martin Y wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:03 pm
I see the "dozens are likely infected" on those flights from SA held at Schipol has now become "yup, dozens are infected".

About 60-odd from 600, though no info on variants involved as yet.
That makes me wonder, considering they should have all been tested negative before flying, are the tests useless or did they all suddenly develop covid on the plane? Either answer seems to suggest that it's not worth testing.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:24 am

Thread on possible evolution via someone with HIV: https://twitter.com/moritzgerstung/stat ... 40647?s=21

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:51 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 am
Martin Y wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:03 pm
I see the "dozens are likely infected" on those flights from SA held at Schipol has now become "yup, dozens are infected".

About 60-odd from 600, though no info on variants involved as yet.
That makes me wonder, considering they should have all been tested negative before flying, are the tests useless or did they all suddenly develop covid on the plane? Either answer seems to suggest that it's not worth testing.
The UK has the day-2 test on arrival (previously a lateral-flow was fine but now it has to be PCR*) but doesn't ask for a negative test before flying.

* - which should be more reliable assuming it's not a corrupt fail of a lab processing them, and will also allow sequencing to track variants.
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Re: B.1.1.529 variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:00 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:43 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:32 pm
Good summary by some experts

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... time-on-t/
Featuring (I believe, unless my memory is doing The Things again) a contribution by mikeh, formerly of this parish. (Hope this is not doxxing.)
Basically this but not considering this.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:41 am

Guardian live blog
Switzerland has widened quarantine requirements to stem the spread of the new Omicron coronavirus variant to travellers arriving from Britain, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Egypt and Malawi, where cases have been detected, its health ministry said.
But not from Italy or Germany, where cases have been detected.

Meanwhile Israel isn't letting anyone in at all.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:45 am

I reckon this is everywhere already, but if it gives countries an excuse to introduce some restrictions which will bring cases back under control which they should have done anyway but couldn't have because it would have gone against the narrative that vaccines will fix everything (except they won't when there are still millions of morons who won't have them) then, well, good.

Also, if it worries a few of those morons into finally getting over their "need to see more long term safety data" then that's also good.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:09 am

Doctor who discovered Omicron variant says UK “panicking unnecessarily” and that symptoms “extremely mild”
Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told The Andrew Marr Show she first encountered the variant in a man in his early 30s who presented with tiredness and a mild headache, but none of the usual coronavirus symptoms.

She said: “What we are seeing clinically in south Africa, and remember I’m at the epicentre - that’s where I’m practising - it’s extremely mild. For us, that’s mild cases.”
She doesn't say whether or not he was vaccinated or point out that covid is usually mild in healthy people in that age range.
When asked if the UK was “panicking unnecessarily”, she said: “I think you already have it there in your country and you’re not knowing it, and I would say, yes, at this stage I would say definitely.

“Two weeks from now maybe we will say something different.”
The UK isn't even implementing half the measures it should have had in place since the summer. But the attitude of "don't bother doing anything and see if after two weeks you're f.cked" isn't particularly encouraging.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 am

The BBC report that
"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't.

So no, South Africa, you're not being 'punished' for detecting the new variant, you're being punished for only having fully vaccinated 24% of the population.

But still, they have a far lower case rate than Europe does at the moment (and I checked their testing positivity rate), and Europe does need to implement more restrictions whether it's Omicron or not driving cases up.

(The person who said "extremely mild" in the previous post is the same as is saying "extreme tiredness" in this post)
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by discovolante » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:26 am

Yes I'm quite confused. This has f.cked my holiday plans and I'm gutted but if it leads to us getting something of a grip in the longer term then good. But is there any possibility that this might be an indication of a development of the virus to something more transmissible but generally less severe? I appreciate there have been hospitalisations and this is not good for vulnerable people regardless. And vaccine resistance is a problem particularly if that leads to even more cases and a breeding ground for more variants, I guess.

I guess that I may well be completely misunderstanding the situation, quite likely in fact, but it does still feel like we are a bit in the dark and everyone is wildly speculating based on partial info.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:36 am

discovolante wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:26 am
Yes I'm quite confused. This has f.cked my holiday plans and I'm gutted but if it leads to us getting something of a grip in the longer term then good. But is there any possibility that this might be an indication of a development of the virus to something more transmissible but generally less severe? I appreciate there have been hospitalisations and this is not good for vulnerable people regardless. And vaccine resistance is a problem particularly if that leads to even more cases and a breeding ground for more variants, I guess.

I guess that I may well be completely misunderstanding the situation, quite likely in fact, but it does still feel like we are a bit in the dark and everyone is wildly speculating based on partial info.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has urged people to act on the assumption the riskier new Omnicron Covid variant is circulating in Scotland and follow all the existing face-covering and restrictions because Covid is circulating in Scotland.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by discovolante » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:52 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:36 am
discovolante wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:26 am
Yes I'm quite confused. This has f.cked my holiday plans and I'm gutted but if it leads to us getting something of a grip in the longer term then good. But is there any possibility that this might be an indication of a development of the virus to something more transmissible but generally less severe? I appreciate there have been hospitalisations and this is not good for vulnerable people regardless. And vaccine resistance is a problem particularly if that leads to even more cases and a breeding ground for more variants, I guess.

I guess that I may well be completely misunderstanding the situation, quite likely in fact, but it does still feel like we are a bit in the dark and everyone is wildly speculating based on partial info.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has urged people to act on the assumption the riskier new Omnicron Covid variant is circulating in Scotland and follow all the existing face-covering and restrictions because Covid is circulating in Scotland.
I'm glad she is because mask wearing seems to be slipping here. Still better than England overall I think. But to be quite honest i feel a few non-wearers on buses and in shops are perhaps less of an issue than all the mass events and schools. But anyway that's for another thread.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:41 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:59 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:01 am

Dutch health authorities said that dozens of people who arrived in Amsterdam on two flights from South Africa on Friday are likely infected with COVID-19, and they are conducting further testing to see if people are infected with the recently discovered Omicron coronavirus variant.

Around 600 passengers arrived at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on the two KLM flights on Friday and then faced hours of delays and testing due to concerns over thenew virus variant. On the basis of initial testing, the Dutch health ministry estimated there may be around 85 positive cases among the passengers.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pa ... 021-11-26/
Many passengers on the two flights that arrived from South Africa to the Netherlands last night did not wear face coverings, New York Times reporter Stephanie Nolen says.

Nolen, who was on one plane, said many passengers did not follow the health guidelines despite a mask mandate by Dutch airline KLM, which operated both flights.

We now now that dozens of those passengers tested positive for Covid, although authorities have yet to confirm the presence of the Omicron variant.

Passengers were stuck on the airport tarmac for about four hours before being sent to be swabbed, tweeted Nolen, who later said she tested negative.

“... still probably 30% of ppl are wearing no mask or only over mouth. Dutch authorities not enforcing. We’re just all in this unventilated room at hour 12, breathing on each other,” she added.

“After all that time with maskless yellers in an unventilated space - we shall see what the next days bring.”
Guardian live blog
600 passengers; 61 covid positives; so far 13 have been found to be the Omicron variant
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Brightonian » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:59 pm


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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by lpm » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pm

It could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.

But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm

How can 10% of the all passengers of those two flights to the Netherlands be positive when the ratio between weekly cases and weekly tests in South Africa is about 2%?
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:35 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pm
It could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.

But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
I think we should be careful making assumptions. First, the people on the flight are probably not going to include many who are in risk categories, eg people over 75, or with compromised immune systems. They may be more likely to be vaccinated than the general population in South Africa.

Second, we don’t know when they were infected. If that happened just before the flight or in transit then we wouldn’t expect them to be showing signs of severe illness.

Back in the spring of 2020 lots of wrong assumptions were made Covid’s severity from people who looked at the initial data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and didn’t check for the additional deaths that occurred in subsequent weeks.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:45 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pm
It could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.

But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
Good point about the football team. Air passengers aren’t a random sample of the population and people do often travel in groups.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by lpm » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:51 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:35 pm
lpm wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pm
It could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.

But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
I think we should be careful making assumptions. First, the people on the flight are probably not going to include many who are in risk categories, eg people over 75, or with compromised immune systems. They may be more likely to be vaccinated than the general population in South Africa.

Second, we don’t know when they were infected. If that happened just before the flight or in transit then we wouldn’t expect them to be showing signs of severe illness.

Back in the spring of 2020 lots of wrong assumptions were made Covid’s severity from people who looked at the initial data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and didn’t check for the additional deaths that occurred in subsequent weeks.
No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

Not judging severity from the plane. Judging it from the South Africa data. Within South Africa, if you compare the plane's case proportions to South Africa data you get a mismatch.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:26 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:51 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:35 pm
lpm wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pm

It could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.

But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
I think we should be careful making assumptions. First, the people on the flight are probably not going to include many who are in risk categories, eg people over 75, or with compromised immune systems. They may be more likely to be vaccinated than the general population in South Africa.

Second, we don’t know when they were infected. If that happened just before the flight or in transit then we wouldn’t expect them to be showing signs of severe illness.

Back in the spring of 2020 lots of wrong assumptions were made Covid’s severity from people who looked at the initial data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and didn’t check for the additional deaths that occurred in subsequent weeks.
No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

Not judging severity from the plane. Judging it from the South Africa data. Within South Africa, if you compare the plane's case proportions to South Africa data you get a mismatch.
Ah yes, I agree with you.

More likely IMHO that the plane has more cases than the general population.

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