B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

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jaap
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by jaap » Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:55 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:30 pm
Shanghai lockdown
Liang Wannian, head of China's National Health Commission COVID-19 response expert panel and one of the principal architects of the "Zero-COVID" strategy, said earlier this week that China “doesn’t believe in ‘laissez-faire’.

”Dynamic Zero COVID is a scientific policy that, if implemented properly and correctly, will yield the most benefits at a minimal cost,” Liang said, “China will stick to this policy under the guideline of putting people and their lives first.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/sh ... d=84052348
It's hardly putting people first when the lockdown drives people to the brink:
https://twitter.com/serpentza/status/15 ... 4323982341

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:14 pm

jaap wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:55 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:30 pm
Shanghai lockdown
Liang Wannian, head of China's National Health Commission COVID-19 response expert panel and one of the principal architects of the "Zero-COVID" strategy, said earlier this week that China “doesn’t believe in ‘laissez-faire’.

”Dynamic Zero COVID is a scientific policy that, if implemented properly and correctly, will yield the most benefits at a minimal cost,” Liang said, “China will stick to this policy under the guideline of putting people and their lives first.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/sh ... d=84052348
It's hardly putting people first when the lockdown drives people to the brink:
https://twitter.com/serpentza/status/15 ... 4323982341
Zero deaths.
Masking forever
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by headshot » Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:32 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:14 pm
jaap wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:55 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:30 pm
Shanghai lockdown



https://abcnews.go.com/International/sh ... d=84052348
It's hardly putting people first when the lockdown drives people to the brink:
https://twitter.com/serpentza/status/15 ... 4323982341
Zero deaths.
Check your sources.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:19 pm

The total number of Covid-19 deaths recorded in the UK over the last 7 days is 1,959. The last time it was this high was on 6 March 2021. :o
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:32 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:19 pm
The total number of Covid-19 deaths recorded in the UK over the last 7 days is 1,959. The last time it was this high was on 6 March 2021. :o
But most of these deaths were mild.

More seriously, I think the past week's figures include some catching up with backlogs, by-date-of-death is behaving more normally.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:51 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:32 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:19 pm
The total number of Covid-19 deaths recorded in the UK over the last 7 days is 1,959. The last time it was this high was on 6 March 2021. :o
But most of these deaths were mild.

More seriously, I think the past week's figures include some catching up with backlogs, by-date-of-death is behaving more normally.
Is it by death certificate or deaths within X days of a positive test?

In any case, it is far too high, a serious country would restored some restrictions.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:57 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:51 pm
Is it by death certificate or deaths within X days of a positive test?
It's the same basis as has been used since the start: Death within 28 days of a positive test.

It should probably be noted that, precisely because of the success of vaccines, there is now likely to be a certain percentage of people admitted for (and then dying from) the consequences of heart attacks or RTAs who are Covid-positive and whose Covid would not have materially contributed to their death. In other words, what the Covid trolls have been claiming has been happening since the start ("You could have a positive test and be run over by a bus 27 days later and still count, hur hur hur") is now a non-trivial possibility. But the likelihood of this is still some fraction of the current Covid infection rate, so still likely to be well below 10%.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:04 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:57 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:51 pm
Is it by death certificate or deaths within X days of a positive test?
It's the same basis as has been used since the start: Death within 28 days of a positive test.

It should probably be noted that, precisely because of the success of vaccines, there is now likely to be a certain percentage of people admitted for (and then dying from) the consequences of heart attacks or RTAs who are Covid-positive and whose Covid would not have materially contributed to their death. In other words, what the Covid trolls have been claiming has been happening since the start ("You could have a positive test and be run over by a bus 27 days later and still count, hur hur hur") is now a non-trivial possibility. But the likelihood of this is still some fraction of the current Covid infection rate, so still likely to be well below 10%.
Thanks. That is a valid point, but pretty hard to put a number on it.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:23 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:57 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:51 pm
Is it by death certificate or deaths within X days of a positive test?
It's the same basis as has been used since the start: Death within 28 days of a positive test..
While the UK has been comfortably beating its target of 1000 deaths per week, the numbers have been similar to February, apart from about 300 extra deaths reported yesterday which were a backlog from the past couple of weeks.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Millennie Al » Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:40 am

shpalman wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:23 pm
While the UK has been comfortably beating its target of 1000 deaths per week, the numbers have been similar to February, apart from about 300 extra deaths reported yesterday which were a backlog from the past couple of weeks.
Since the population of the UK is 67,081,000, if the average age at death is 85, we have an average of 1514 deaths per week. Some of those will be infected but would die anyway. Given the reduction in testing, we really need to just look at how the total number of deaths compares to other years rather than trying to count Covid deaths directly.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:12 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:40 am
sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:19 pm
The total number of Covid-19 deaths recorded in the UK over the last 7 days is 1,959. The last time it was this high was on 6 March 2021. :o
Since the population of the UK is 67,081,000, if the average age at death is 85, we have an average of 1514 deaths per week. Some of those will be infected but would die anyway. Given the reduction in testing, we really need to just look at how the total number of deaths compares to other years rather than trying to count Covid deaths directly.
Fixed the quoting, go find the excess death data for yourselves, I don't care.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 15, 2022 7:25 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:57 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:51 pm
Is it by death certificate or deaths within X days of a positive test?
It's the same basis as has been used since the start: Death within 28 days of a positive test.

It should probably be noted that, precisely because of the success of vaccines, there is now likely to be a certain percentage of people admitted for (and then dying from) the consequences of heart attacks or RTAs who are Covid-positive and whose Covid would not have materially contributed to their death. In other words, what the Covid trolls have been claiming has been happening since the start ("You could have a positive test and be run over by a bus 27 days later and still count, hur hur hur") is now a non-trivial possibility. But the likelihood of this is still some fraction of the current Covid infection rate, so still likely to be well below 10%.
We already did this, by the way, but you could try updating the calculation:
shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 09, 2022 8:56 am
KAJ wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:48 pm
Yesterday I said
KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:39 pm
<snip>
A little while ago I read a suggestion that "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported" must increase with number of positive tests, whether or not COVID causes deaths. I didn't pay much attention at the time, partly because it was (IIRC) in the Telegraph, but it seems prima facie not totally stupid. We're currently averaging well over a million cases a week. I don't know how many deaths you'd expect in that number of people who hadn't tested positive in the last 28 days.

When I get a few minutes I'll have a look at the figures for death certificate mentions, but can anyone save me the effort and point me to a discussion/rebuttal of the argument?
jimbob helpfully responded
jimbob wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:10 pm
<snip>
It does indeed seem reasonable.

We can do some very basic sums.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... anuary2022

1 in 15 estimated positive in England. at the moment. In 2019 England had about 500,000 deaths a year of which 48,000 were in January.

If Covid was neutral for death, then you'd expect about 3,000 of those infected now to die in January (assuming, incorrectly) that cases were spread evenly through the population rather than concentrated in the younger age groups so that's a ballpark estimate. And an overestimate.
<snip>
Thinking about it there are many if's-and-buts in addition to those pointed out by jimbob. Essentially I'm on a hiding to nothing, but I'm starting to feel better after COVID, and it piqued me, so here are some handwaving calculations.

I need to guesstimate death rates in the absence of COVID. The ONS Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 24 December 2021 says:
In the week ending 24 December 2021 (Week 51), 13,013 deaths were registered in England and Wales; this was 613 more deaths than the previous week (Week 50) and 12.7% above the five-year average (1,465 more deaths).
so 5 year average for week 51 is 13,013 - 1,465 = 11,548 deaths/week
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/exce ... untry=~GBR seems to be a good source for that; there's a source for deaths per week somewhere but I forget where. And the whole age-standardized thing we were arguing with Sheldrake about. But your number of 11548 deaths per week will do.
I need that as a proportion of the population. ONS Population estimates gives me mid 2020 population estimates for England and Wales = 56,550,000 + 3,170,000 = 59,720,000.

That leads to an average = 11,548/7/59,720 = 0.0276 deaths/day/1,000 people.

That is only a ballpark estimate, but it gives me a way to estimate the number of deaths I'd expect from a number of people who hadn't tested positive in the last 28 days to compare with those who did.
We can also quote that as 19.3/100,000/week to compare it to the units the UK uses for its case rates.
KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:39 pm
... We're currently averaging well over a million cases a week. I don't know how many deaths you'd expect in that number of people who hadn't tested positive in the last 28 days.
Your calculations give 193/million/week. However, it hasn't been a million a week over all of the past 4 weeks, in fact 4 weeks ago it was half that; it's about 3 million who have tested positive over the past 4 weeks.

Whereas 1179 people have been reported over the past 7 days as dying within 28 days of a positive covid test in England and Wales. (Death certificate data is only up to 24th December at the moment so I won't use that, but it's usually even higher.)

Currently about 3 million people are being PCR tested in England in any recent 7 day period. The positivity rate used to be about 10% and now it's more like 30%.

But out of all of those 3 million you'd expect about 580 to die each week whether they'd tested positive or not. So 4 weeks ago 10% of those deaths, 58 per week, would have been attributed to covid whereas now 30% of them, 174 would be.

Whereas 4 weeks ago there were about 800 deaths per week and now there are about 1200. So no, I don't think that the extra deaths are people who would have died anyway who just happen to now have positive test results.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:24 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 15, 2022 7:25 am
We already did this, by the way, but you could try updating the calculation:
Thanks. Great minds think alike, but some also bother to dig out the calculator. :oops:
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sat Apr 16, 2022 2:38 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:14 pm
jaap wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:55 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:30 pm
Shanghai lockdown



https://abcnews.go.com/International/sh ... d=84052348
It's hardly putting people first when the lockdown drives people to the brink:
https://twitter.com/serpentza/status/15 ... 4323982341
Zero deaths.
Apart from at least 27 patients from a single hospital who weren't vaccinated and people's pet dogs.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Sat Apr 16, 2022 9:17 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Apr 16, 2022 2:38 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:14 pm
jaap wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:55 pm


It's hardly putting people first when the lockdown drives people to the brink:
https://twitter.com/serpentza/status/15 ... 4323982341
Zero deaths.
Apart from at least 27 patients from a single hospital who weren't vaccinated and people's pet dogs.
The cause of death is not clear for these people.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:00 am

“I’ve used up my medicines. Nor do I have anything to eat. I’m feeling awful,” Yu, who had tested positive for Covid, told the party secretary, Zhang Zhen.
Zhang listened patiently, saying he had already referred the case to his superiors and there was nothing he could do. “Do you mean I should just wait here until I die, then?” Yu asked. Zhang responded with an angry rant, complaining that he too was completely powerless in this situation: “I’m worried too. I’m angry too … But there’s nothing we can do … I don’t know what to do either.”

Zhang revealed that calls for help had been piling up in recent days, but that his superiors were not dealing with them. “Perhaps one day, when I cannot put up with it, I’ll quit. Will this day come soon?”

“I don’t know how Shanghai ended up like this,” said Zhang. He sighed and ended the call. “I’m sorry, Mr Yu … Goodbye.”
... Beijing’s patchy record in vaccinating its vulnerable population – in particular those over 60 years old – would pose an even greater danger to its inadequate healthcare system.

By 5 April, more than 92 million Chinese citizens aged 65 or above had still not received three vaccine doses, leaving them at greater risk of contracting severe symptoms or dying from the virus. More worryingly, 20.2 million people aged 80 and above have not been fully vaccinated either.

These realities, coupled with the use of a comparatively less effective homemade vaccine, has made China’s future policy choices even more limited.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Apr 18, 2022 5:38 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:14 pm
jaap wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:55 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:30 pm
Shanghai lockdown



https://abcnews.go.com/International/sh ... d=84052348
It's hardly putting people first when the lockdown drives people to the brink:
https://twitter.com/serpentza/status/15 ... 4323982341
Zero deaths.
Shanghai: China reports three dead in latest Covid outbreak
[T]he victims were aged between 89 and 91 and unvaccinated.

Shanghai officials said only 38% of residents over 60 are fully vaccinated.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Apr 21, 2022 5:32 pm

Total #Covid deaths in 2022 in #China is 17.

482 in a single day reported in the UK
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:23 pm

Shanghai death toll now up to 36.
The latest outbreak in Shanghai, first detected in late March, has seen more than 400,000 cases recorded so far and 36 deaths. Nearly all were elderly, unvaccinated residents with underlying health problems, according to Chinese officials.
As a result, the city's 25 million people have been ordered to stay home.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61137649
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by headshot » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:51 pm

In other news, China is definitely not enacting human rights abuses and is one of the most transparent democracies in the world.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sat Apr 23, 2022 6:15 pm

And definitely not censoring free speech.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:32 am

[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... esh-outcry]Shanghai authorities battling an outbreak of Covid-19 have erected mesh barriers outside some residential buildings[/url]
“Isn’t this a fire hazard?” said one user on social media platform Weibo.

“This is so disrespectful of the rights of the people inside, using metal barriers to enclose them like domestic animals,” said another.

The Shanghai government said “rights of the people? Haha good one.”
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Sciolus » Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:14 pm

Who do they think they are? Manchester University?

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Gfamily » Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:08 pm

I saw a screenshot that shows the cargo vessels around Shanghai Port. The claim was that the city's lockdown is having a huge effect on exports from the port.

I've no idea how this compares to 'normal days', but there may be a(nother) shortage of manufactured goods this summer
Shanghai port.jpg
Shanghai port.jpg (78.98 KiB) Viewed 138 times
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