I'd have said, a lot more contagious, but seemingly less virulentKAJ wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:30 pmOmicron less contagious than Delta? Is that a mistype, or do I misunderstand the meaning of contagious?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:15 pm<snnip>
I'm tentatively nudging in the same direction. We've got some real world data on infections and some lab results. Its all early days but together they are looking like Omicron isn't as contagious as Delta.
<snip>
B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
I meant virulent. It’s been a long day.KAJ wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:30 pmOmicron less contagious than Delta? Is that a mistype, or do I misunderstand the meaning of contagious?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:15 pm<snnip>
I'm tentatively nudging in the same direction. We've got some real world data on infections and some lab results. Its all early days but together they are looking like Omicron isn't as contagious as Delta.
<snip>
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
It's been a long couple of yearsWoodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:48 pmI meant virulent. It’s been a long day.KAJ wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:30 pmOmicron less contagious than Delta? Is that a mistype, or do I misunderstand the meaning of contagious?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:15 pm<snnip>
I'm tentatively nudging in the same direction. We've got some real world data on infections and some lab results. Its all early days but together they are looking like Omicron isn't as contagious as Delta.
<snip>
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Yes, it has.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Daily hospitalisations in London have almost trebled since the start of December 114 on the 1st, 301 on the 20th.
Given that London is at the forefront of the omicron wave - this does seem to show that this variant is capable of producing a wave of hospitalisations.
Given that London is at the forefront of the omicron wave - this does seem to show that this variant is capable of producing a wave of hospitalisations.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
The Majorana guy doesn't understand that deaths lag behind cases, especially when the outbreak starts in the young.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
That is quite special.shpalman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:08 pmThe Majorana guy doesn't understand that deaths lag behind cases, especially when the outbreak starts in the young.
Meanwhile, in London the positivity rate is rising, and in Lambeth for example, is over 25%
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
In the past few days the Guardian have been writing things like:
Are they claiming there were 100k's/day of infections missed prior to May last year (as the context suggests), or that many currently being missed (as the grammar suggests)? I guess both could be true.Here’s a little more on those latest UK figures. The new daily total is 106,122, which is more than 13,000 higher than the previous record - 93,045 on Friday last week.
The total number of new cases over the past week is up 58.9% on the total for the previous week.
As I mentioned in the previous post, case numbers are only comparable since mass testing began in May and June last year. Experts have said there are likely to be hundreds of thousands of infections per day, with many being missed.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Certainly the reported case numbers in the first wave early last year would be a massive underestimate, considering the hospitalizations and deaths (and excess deaths).WFJ wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:08 pmIn the past few days the Guardian have been writing things like:Are they claiming there were 100k's/day of infections missed prior to May last year (as the context suggests), or that many currently being missed (as the grammar suggests)? I guess both could be true.Here’s a little more on those latest UK figures. The new daily total is 106,122, which is more than 13,000 higher than the previous record - 93,045 on Friday last week.
The total number of new cases over the past week is up 58.9% on the total for the previous week.
As I mentioned in the previous post, case numbers are only comparable since mass testing began in May and June last year. Experts have said there are likely to be hundreds of thousands of infections per day, with many being missed.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
That's what I assumed they meant. But I read an identically confused sentence on their site yesterday, so I wasn't sure if they meant experts think there are currently 100s of 1000s of missed cases.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Imperial College estimate it is 11% inherently milder vs Delta - 11% lower chance of hospitalisation for those without vaccine/prior.
This is the key metric. The majority of the hospitalisations are unvaxxed.
We can then add on the benefits of immunity, which takes the average reduction to 40% lower risk of hospitalisations over 1 day.
Then add on the benefits of mix, which changes from Delta where cases are split into similar vax/unvax proportions, to Omicron where it's overwhelmingly going to be vaxxed and prior infection breakthroughs. The Scotland study gives a total two-thirds reduction in hospitalisation risk. South Africa gives 70-80% reduction.
This is the key metric. The majority of the hospitalisations are unvaxxed.
We can then add on the benefits of immunity, which takes the average reduction to 40% lower risk of hospitalisations over 1 day.
Then add on the benefits of mix, which changes from Delta where cases are split into similar vax/unvax proportions, to Omicron where it's overwhelmingly going to be vaxxed and prior infection breakthroughs. The Scotland study gives a total two-thirds reduction in hospitalisation risk. South Africa gives 70-80% reduction.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
I know it’s against your moral code LPM, but could you please post links to the things you cite?
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
I think this has two implications:
1) Short term - it's going to be a close race of exponential vs healthcare capacity. I think we'd have scraped through if it hadn't been Christmas with its sudden mixing.
Race depends on boosters (coming faster than expected), whether the "slowdown" in the rise per the stats is real (probably just less testing) and whether there will remain some "cold spots" with spare hospital capacity able to take patients from London and the like.
2) Long term - 11% milder is good news. Everyone is going to catch Omi but the unvaxxed have a significantly better chance of surviving compared to Delta. By Easter there won't be any naïves left who've not met this virus before. Epidemic comes to an abrupt halt and endemic becomes the norm.
1) Short term - it's going to be a close race of exponential vs healthcare capacity. I think we'd have scraped through if it hadn't been Christmas with its sudden mixing.
Race depends on boosters (coming faster than expected), whether the "slowdown" in the rise per the stats is real (probably just less testing) and whether there will remain some "cold spots" with spare hospital capacity able to take patients from London and the like.
2) Long term - 11% milder is good news. Everyone is going to catch Omi but the unvaxxed have a significantly better chance of surviving compared to Delta. By Easter there won't be any naïves left who've not met this virus before. Epidemic comes to an abrupt halt and endemic becomes the norm.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
If you were interested you'd google and find it yourself within 10 seconds.
https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/public ... ctiveness-
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... ort-50.pdf
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Thank you, but I’m not necessarily going to get the same thing from google that you are seeing, especially on your more obscure posts.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Obscure? OBSCURE?
The entire planet has just one question right now: is it milder.
Everyone's been waiting to hear these initial findings. We were told yesterday it would be out today. There's no story bigger. Everyone's talking about these initial findings.
The first free moment of today was spent getting this preliminary look and thinking about what it means. I've no idea why you didn't do the same.
Obscure. Jesus.
The entire planet has just one question right now: is it milder.
Everyone's been waiting to hear these initial findings. We were told yesterday it would be out today. There's no story bigger. Everyone's talking about these initial findings.
The first free moment of today was spent getting this preliminary look and thinking about what it means. I've no idea why you didn't do the same.
Obscure. Jesus.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
I’ve seen reports that omicron while potentially less severe for most (not “mild”) is causing concerns for kids 0 - 5. Any news on that?
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Somewhere called Acre Lane, between Brixton and Clapham, is 5,044.0 which is more than 1 in 20.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:01 pmCurrently 3,773.4 cases per 100,000 people in Clapham North.
About 1 in 26
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Nearly enough for every family to have one at their Christmas dinner!shpalman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:23 pmSomewhere called Acre Lane, between Brixton and Clapham, is 5,044.0 which is more than 1 in 20.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:01 pmCurrently 3,773.4 cases per 100,000 people in Clapham North.
About 1 in 26
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
See also the latest daily Danish report. We are moving away from very small case numbers and it looks like the Case Hospitalisation Rate for Delta is 1.4% while for Omi it’s 0.5%.lpm wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:05 pmIf you were interested you'd google and find it yourself within 10 seconds.
https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/public ... ctiveness-
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... ort-50.pdf
https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/st ... 22021-14tk
Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268116v1
That one includes a comparison of concurrent Omi and Delta cases and hospital admissions.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
yay, wonderful, yes, this is good news.lpm wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:58 pmObscure? OBSCURE?
The entire planet has just one question right now: is it milder.
Everyone's been waiting to hear these initial findings. We were told yesterday it would be out today. There's no story bigger. Everyone's talking about these initial findings.
The first free moment of today was spent getting this preliminary look and thinking about what it means. I've no idea why you didn't do the same.
Obscure. Jesus.
I was talking about your more general habit of never bl..dy providing links in general, not just this post. FFS.
enough OT ranting,
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Here’s the John Burn-Murdoch thread on the papers everyone has been talking about: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 81069?s=21
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
So you won't need field hospitals in car parks for example.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
So, not just good news about Omicron, but... Omicron is good news? I.e. it pushes aside the more virulent Delta. Or is it a bit more complicated than that?
ETA: though of course it's a whole lot more infectious.
ETA: though of course it's a whole lot more infectious.