B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

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shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:10 pm

UK cases of Omicron soar by 50%

And since that individual isn't even in the UK anymore, UK cases of Omicron drop by 33%!

Currently at about 0.01% of the Delta cases which you obviously didn't care about dealing with.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:15 pm

Hospital admissions are the metric that matters.

You can see the South Africa data here: https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-ind ... ov-report/

Hospital admissions in Gauteng province have gone from 135 in week 45 to 418 in week 47 (22-28 November).

Seems to be consistent with Omicron causing severe illness. Though of course we don’t yet know the ratio.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:14 pm

The second page of that shows weekly deaths and they don't seem to be going up yet.

This seems to be the best place to see daily cases.

They've gone from several hundred a day to a few thousand per day in Gauteng Province (est. population 15.8 million). Don't know why there were 18.6k on the 22nd of November.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:05 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 am
The BBC report that
"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't.
Whereas the Italian person who has been found to have brought Omicron from Mozambique is vaccinated and happy about it, since he's completely asymptomatic (and only got tested since he was about to get on another flight).
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 am
The BBC report that
"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't.
It's also contradicted by the figures Woodchopper found indicating increasing numbers in the hospital in Guateng.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:40 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:14 pm
The second page of that shows weekly deaths and they don't seem to be going up yet.

This seems to be the best place to see daily cases.

They've gone from several hundred a day to a few thousand per day in Gauteng Province (est. population 15.8 million). Don't know why there were 18.6k on the 22nd of November.
On deaths, there will be a lag as always. Perhaps a week or two.

Maybe the 22 November was a dump of some outstanding data.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:57 pm


For UK real-world data to assess transmissibility or outcomes like hospitalisations need a minimum:

• several hundred cases

• +2 weeks from the positive specimen, time for cases to spread to contacts and/or people to get ill (if they’re going to)

• +4 weeks for deaths
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 37346?s=21

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:10 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:07 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 am
The BBC report that
"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't.
It's also contradicted by the figures Woodchopper found indicating increasing numbers in the hospital in Guateng.
From the latest WHO update:

Severity of disease: It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron. There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks. All variants of COVID-19, including the Delta variant that is dominant worldwide, can cause severe disease or death, in particular for the most vulnerable people, and thus prevention is always key.
https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-202 ... on-omicron

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:09 pm

the soundings we’re getting from South Africa seem to be saying that it doesn’t look severe, and the people who are going to hospital are the unvaccinated, rather than the vaccinated

The South African doctor I previously quoted flagged these cases because they were presenting unusually, not because they were particularly bad, because with such a low degree of vaccination coverage there I suppose extreme tiredness is a mild symptom on their scale.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:51 pm

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:09 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:09 pm
the soundings we’re getting from South Africa seem to be saying that it doesn’t look severe, and the people who are going to hospital are the unvaccinated, rather than the vaccinated

The South African doctor I previously quoted flagged these cases because they were presenting unusually, not because they were particularly bad, because with such a low degree of vaccination coverage there I suppose extreme tiredness is a mild symptom on their scale.
Suggestion here that the earlier cases were among young people.
https://twitter.com/rjlessells/status/1 ... 54242?s=21


Before we assume Omicron is less virulent we need to know what it does to a 70 year old with emphysema.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:14 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:15 pm
Hospital admissions in Gauteng province have gone from 135 in week 45 to 418 in week 47 (22-28 November).

Seems to be consistent with Omicron causing severe illness. Though of course we don’t yet know the ratio.
But it's also consistent with Omicron being much milder but more transmissible. It's possible that people were admitted in the mistaken belief that they were more sick than they really were because if they showed the same symptoms with other variants then they would have been that sick. Of course, there's no evidence for that yet, but it's a theoretical possibility.

Just as it's a theoretical possibility that Omicron will be sufficiently harmless that we need not worry about catching it, yet sufficiently infectious that it will drive out the other variants. Rather too much to hope for currently, I'm afraid.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:26 am

A third confirmed case has been identified in the UK, following confirmation of two other cases on Saturday — one in Essex, the other in Nottingham. Dozens more are being treated as suspected cases, people familiar with the matter have told the Financial Times.
https://www.ft.com/content/82d66181-050 ... 303d1ae44f

I assume that the dozens of suspected UK cases may be S gene dropouts.


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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:06 am

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:55 am

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by lpm » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:17 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:06 am
Six cases in Scotland.

https://www.gov.scot/news/omicron-variant/
Sounds like these 6 infections were domestic - not travellers from SA.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:45 am

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Brightonian » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:59 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:17 am
shpalman wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:06 am
Six cases in Scotland.

https://www.gov.scot/news/omicron-variant/
Sounds like these 6 infections were domestic - not travellers from SA.
Yep. "on some of the cases we are aware that there is no travel history involved."

I was not expecting it to travel so far so fast.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by lpm » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:01 am

Hints that Omi moves fast? Beats Delta by getting the job of transmitting done early? UK test & trace has always been too slow, so could be even more off the pace.

ETA: am I only the one who's giving our new little friend a shortened nickname? I get the feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of each other and Omicron seems so formal.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by lpm » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:14 am

Wait, wait, I've just learned something from Facebook, omicron is fake, everyone stand down.

The New World Order gave us a clue right in it's name: omicron is an anagram of moronic.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by headshot » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:51 am

Is one of the symptom's of Omicron errant apostrophe's?

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:30 pm

https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 0113839113
Carl Heneghan


Update on Omicron: ‘It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible; It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease’

https://t.co/I3zE4cetof?amp=1
Heneghan is still off the deep end.


Um, I think there's plenty of evidence that it's outcompeting Delta in several locations.

I'll grant the second point.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by bob sterman » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:01 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:30 pm
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 0113839113
Carl Heneghan


Update on Omicron: ‘It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible; It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease’

https://t.co/I3zE4cetof?amp=1
Heneghan is still off the deep end.


Um, I think there's plenty of evidence that it's outcompeting Delta in several locations.

I'll grant the second point.
Oh sh*t - if Carl "no signs of a second wave" Heneghan is saying it's nothing to worry about - then we really are in trouble! :shock:

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:14 pm

Take it up with the WHO then.
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