B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

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bob sterman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by bob sterman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:39 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:20 pm
The UK has recorded its deadliest Covid-related day in 11 months.

A further 398 people were reported on Wednesday to have died with the virus.

The figure is the highest since 24 February, 2021, when 442 fatalities emerged.

Data published this afternoon also shows 129,587 new cases have been recorded over the last day.
400 per day. We are getting there.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/12/covid-da ... -15907643/
Not to minimize these - but you know that deaths by date reported do not tell you much about how deadly the "day" was. In this wave, the highest deaths by date of death value so far has been 212 on Jan 6th.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:09 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:39 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:20 pm
The UK has recorded its deadliest Covid-related day in 11 months.

A further 398 people were reported on Wednesday to have died with the virus.

The figure is the highest since 24 February, 2021, when 442 fatalities emerged.

Data published this afternoon also shows 129,587 new cases have been recorded over the last day.
400 per day. We are getting there.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/12/covid-da ... -15907643/
Not to minimize these - but you know that deaths by date reported do not tell you much about how deadly the "day" was. In this wave, the highest deaths by date of death value so far has been 212 on Jan 6th.
... is the most recent day with relatively complete data. While a single day's report out of context is never particularly meaningful, it's clear which way the trend is and there might well be a peak of about 400 deaths actually on the same day at some point within the next couple of weeks.

It's true that there's a bit of catching up to do with registrations from the holiday period but the 7-day average by date reported is more than double what it was for most of December and it's not like the dip due to there not being reports on Christmas itself was that deep.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm

I just have a really bad feeling about this. There is a lot of spin going on to minimize this catastrophe.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:59 pm

Herainestold = C3P0 confirmed
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:10 pm

It's true though that the UK is comfortably beating its target of adding 1000 bodies a week to the pile but the moron newspapers are all about "here's today's number and it's different from yesterday's number!".

Cases seem to have peaked, though, and hospitalizations seem to have peaked at a lower factor, so deaths should peak soon and at maybe half the CFR than whatever currently works to follow the case rate with a lag. Probably because of lots of cases in the young while the elders are freshly boosted.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:20 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
I admit this is true.This virus, this pandemic keeps throwing surprises at us, and they are never positive, only bad. Pundits and commentators keep telling us this is the last scary bit, things will get better, throw your masks away, and then we get another variant, another wave, another hospital crisis.
Optimism is so 2019.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by bob sterman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:11 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:20 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
I admit this is true.This virus, this pandemic keeps throwing surprises at us, and they are never positive, only bad. Pundits and commentators keep telling us this is the last scary bit, things will get better, throw your masks away, and then we get another variant, another wave, another hospital crisis.
Optimism is so 2019.
Yes it keeps throwing surprises at us - but sometimes they are positive.

E.g. Delta wave not surging when schools went back in early September 2021.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by wilsontown » Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:54 pm

The post-peak plummet in omicron cases seems to be slowing down, with the 7-day case average declining by less than 1% on each of the last two days. It could be fun if we're going to have an omicron plateau with cases running at ~twice what they were in the delta plateau we were having in the 2nd half of last year...

On another note, I couldn't help noticing when I glanced at the current maps that Wales and Scotland seem to be doing noticeably better than England (apart from the south-west) for some reason...

UK_20012022.PNG
UK_20012022.PNG (87.35 KiB) Viewed 1811 times

Probably shouldn't read too much into it I suppose...
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:14 pm

Looks like the bits where nobody is.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:14 pm

(At least with a Westminster view of the country.)
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:30 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:54 pm
The post-peak plummet in omicron cases seems to be slowing down, with the 7-day case average declining by less than 1% on each of the last two days. It could be fun if we're going to have an omicron plateau with cases running at ~twice what they were in the delta plateau we were having in the 2nd half of last year...
That is what endemicity looks like. We had better get used to it.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:25 pm

There's now the BA.2 variant.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by headshot » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:04 pm

“…but cases remain low”

How can they STILL not get it???

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by discovolante » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:22 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:14 pm
Looks like the bits where nobody is.
That was my first thought, but according to the map the central belt (i.e. more densely populated bit) of Scotland seems to be doing about as well as the rest, with just the Borders doing better. Which doesn't seem to make a lot of sense tbh, but I have to admit I've not been following all of this too closely.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by jimbob » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:02 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:04 pm
“…but cases remain low”

How can they STILL not get it???
Indeed. If cases are still detectable after a few weeks, it means it's more than holding its own. Because simple rules of chance say it would otherwise be swamped by the A1 variant
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:36 am

jimbob wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:02 pm
headshot wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:04 pm
“…but cases remain low”

How can they STILL not get it???
Indeed. If cases are still detectable after a few weeks, it means it's more than holding its own. Because simple rules of chance say it would otherwise be swamped by the A1 variant
From the news article cited:
In Denmark, where BA.2 makes up around 50% of cases , ...
so "low" is used in some narrow sense, such as aplying only ot the UK.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:07 am

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:09 am

More up-to-date graphs are at @Mike_Honey_.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:19 am

the OWID daily case rates for those countries, for comparison
coronavirus-data-explorer.png
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:41 pm

Looks like BA.2 is spread by hygge.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by hakwright » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:42 pm

I've noticed that new UK cases, having fallen from a peak in Dec/Jan, have flat-lined for a while, and the 7-day average is now edging up very slightly. Could be nothing more than noise that will disappear in an overall trend of falling numbers... but haven't seen any serious comment on the (slightly) increasing case numbers yet. Might be connected to BA.2? Or not. Might be a shift in behaviour?

Same thing is happening in Greece, cases have been falling steadily from recent peak, but now edging up very slightly.

I hope both will continue their downward trend soon, but am watching the stats a little nervously at the moment.

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by raven » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pm

Post-Christmas peak has passed, cases plateau and then everybody relaxes slightly/goes back to work as they've been told so you get a slight rise perhaps? Or people've stopped testing so much because they're not visiting the elderly relatives like they were over Christmas, so we're not picking up so many asymptomatic cases, and the apparent fall/plateau wasn't totally accurate.

Speaking of which,sister who works in a primary school can't believe cases are falling because so many people she knows have it, including quite a few people who are getting it for the second time.

We're supposed to start adding reinfections to the case data soonish, aren't we.Cynically, I suspect they're waiting for things to die down enough that it won't cause a dramatic increase.

ETA: Just looked at the case data for where sister is, and yep, cases are rising in her area, plus the heat map is pretty scary:
2022-01-25  Cases heatmap.png
2022-01-25 Cases heatmap.png (55.29 KiB) Viewed 1385 times
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:52 pm

raven wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pm
Post-Christmas peak has passed, cases plateau and then everybody relaxes slightly/goes back to work as they've been told so you get a slight rise perhaps? Or people've stopped testing so much because they're not visiting the elderly relatives like they were over Christmas, so we're not picking up so many asymptomatic cases, and the apparent fall/plateau wasn't totally accurate.

Speaking of which,sister who works in a primary school can't believe cases are falling because so many people she knows have it, including quite a few people who are getting it for the second time.

We're supposed to start adding reinfections to the case data soonish, aren't we.Cynically, I suspect they're waiting for things to die down enough that it won't cause a dramatic increase.

ETA: Just looked at the case data for where sister is, and yep, cases are rising in her area, plus the heat map is pretty scary:2022-01-25 Cases heatmap.png.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:09 pm

Image
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