B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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bob sterman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by bob sterman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:39 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:20 pm
The UK has recorded its deadliest Covid-related day in 11 months.

A further 398 people were reported on Wednesday to have died with the virus.

The figure is the highest since 24 February, 2021, when 442 fatalities emerged.

Data published this afternoon also shows 129,587 new cases have been recorded over the last day.
400 per day. We are getting there.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/12/covid-da ... -15907643/
Not to minimize these - but you know that deaths by date reported do not tell you much about how deadly the "day" was. In this wave, the highest deaths by date of death value so far has been 212 on Jan 6th.

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shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:09 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:39 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:20 pm
The UK has recorded its deadliest Covid-related day in 11 months.

A further 398 people were reported on Wednesday to have died with the virus.

The figure is the highest since 24 February, 2021, when 442 fatalities emerged.

Data published this afternoon also shows 129,587 new cases have been recorded over the last day.
400 per day. We are getting there.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/12/covid-da ... -15907643/
Not to minimize these - but you know that deaths by date reported do not tell you much about how deadly the "day" was. In this wave, the highest deaths by date of death value so far has been 212 on Jan 6th.
... is the most recent day with relatively complete data. While a single day's report out of context is never particularly meaningful, it's clear which way the trend is and there might well be a peak of about 400 deaths actually on the same day at some point within the next couple of weeks.

It's true that there's a bit of catching up to do with registrations from the holiday period but the 7-day average by date reported is more than double what it was for most of December and it's not like the dip due to there not being reports on Christmas itself was that deep.
molto tricky

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm

I just have a really bad feeling about this. There is a lot of spin going on to minimize this catastrophe.
Dark days lie ahead.

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shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
molto tricky

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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:59 pm

Herainestold = C3P0 confirmed
You can shove your climate crisis up your arse!

Take thy beak from out my heart, and take thy form from off my door.

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shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:10 pm

It's true though that the UK is comfortably beating its target of adding 1000 bodies a week to the pile but the moron newspapers are all about "here's today's number and it's different from yesterday's number!".

Cases seem to have peaked, though, and hospitalizations seem to have peaked at a lower factor, so deaths should peak soon and at maybe half the CFR than whatever currently works to follow the case rate with a lag. Probably because of lots of cases in the young while the elders are freshly boosted.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:20 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
I admit this is true.This virus, this pandemic keeps throwing surprises at us, and they are never positive, only bad. Pundits and commentators keep telling us this is the last scary bit, things will get better, throw your masks away, and then we get another variant, another wave, another hospital crisis.
Optimism is so 2019.
Dark days lie ahead.

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bob sterman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant

Post by bob sterman » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:11 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:20 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
I admit this is true.This virus, this pandemic keeps throwing surprises at us, and they are never positive, only bad. Pundits and commentators keep telling us this is the last scary bit, things will get better, throw your masks away, and then we get another variant, another wave, another hospital crisis.
Optimism is so 2019.
Yes it keeps throwing surprises at us - but sometimes they are positive.

E.g. Delta wave not surging when schools went back in early September 2021.

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