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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:39 pm
by bob sterman
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:20 pm
The UK has recorded its deadliest Covid-related day in 11 months.
A further 398 people were reported on Wednesday to have died with the virus.
The figure is the highest since 24 February, 2021, when 442 fatalities emerged.
Data published this afternoon also shows 129,587 new cases have been recorded over the last day.
400 per day. We are getting there.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/12/covid-da ... -15907643/
Not to minimize these - but you know that deaths by date reported do not tell you much about how deadly the "day" was. In this wave, the highest deaths by date of death value so far has been 212 on Jan 6th.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:09 pm
by shpalman
bob sterman wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:39 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:20 pm
The UK has recorded its deadliest Covid-related day in 11 months.
A further 398 people were reported on Wednesday to have died with the virus.
The figure is the highest since 24 February, 2021, when 442 fatalities emerged.
Data published this afternoon also shows 129,587 new cases have been recorded over the last day.
400 per day. We are getting there.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/12/covid-da ... -15907643/
Not to minimize these - but you know that deaths by date reported do not tell you much about how deadly the "day" was. In this wave, the highest deaths by date of death value so far
has been 212 on Jan 6th.
... is the most recent day with relatively complete data. While a single day's report out of context is never particularly meaningful, it's clear which way the trend is and there might well be a peak of about 400 deaths actually on the same day at some point within the next couple of weeks.
It's true that there's a bit of catching up to do with registrations from the holiday period but the 7-day average by date reported is more than double what it was for most of December and it's not like the dip due to there not being reports on Christmas itself was that deep.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
by Herainestold
I just have a really bad feeling about this. There is a lot of spin going on to minimize this catastrophe.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
by shpalman
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:59 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Herainestold = C3P0 confirmed
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:10 pm
by shpalman
It's true though that the UK is comfortably beating its target of adding 1000 bodies a week to the pile but the moron newspapers are all about "here's today's number and it's different from yesterday's number!".
Cases seem to have peaked, though, and hospitalizations seem to have peaked at a lower factor, so deaths should peak soon and at maybe half the CFR than whatever currently works to follow the case rate with a lag. Probably because of lots of cases in the young while the elders are freshly boosted.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:20 pm
by Herainestold
shpalman wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
I admit this is true.This virus, this pandemic keeps throwing surprises at us, and they are never positive, only bad. Pundits and commentators keep telling us this is the last scary bit, things will get better, throw your masks away, and then we get another variant, another wave, another hospital crisis.
Optimism is so 2019.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:11 pm
by bob sterman
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:20 pm
shpalman wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:09 pm
I just have a really bad feeling about this.
You always do, though.
I admit this is true.This virus, this pandemic keeps throwing surprises at us, and they are never positive, only bad. Pundits and commentators keep telling us this is the last scary bit, things will get better, throw your masks away, and then we get another variant, another wave, another hospital crisis.
Optimism is so 2019.
Yes it keeps throwing surprises at us - but sometimes they are positive.
E.g. Delta wave not surging when schools went back in early September 2021.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:54 pm
by wilsontown
The post-peak plummet in omicron cases seems to be slowing down, with the 7-day case average declining by less than 1% on each of the last two days. It could be fun if we're going to have an omicron plateau with cases running at ~twice what they were in the delta plateau we were having in the 2nd half of last year...
On another note, I couldn't help noticing when I glanced at the current maps that Wales and Scotland seem to be doing noticeably better than England (apart from the south-west) for some reason...
- UK_20012022.PNG (87.35 KiB) Viewed 3711 times
Probably shouldn't read too much into it I suppose...
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:14 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Looks like the bits where nobody is.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:14 pm
by Bird on a Fire
(At least with a Westminster view of the country.)
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:30 pm
by Herainestold
wilsontown wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:54 pm
The post-peak plummet in omicron cases seems to be slowing down, with the 7-day case average declining by less than 1% on each of the last two days. It could be fun if we're going to have an omicron plateau with cases running at ~twice what they were in the delta plateau we were having in the 2nd half of last year...
That is what endemicity looks like. We had better get used to it.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:25 pm
by shpalman
There's now the
BA.2 variant.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:04 pm
by headshot
“…but cases remain low”
How can they STILL not get it???
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:22 pm
by discovolante
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:14 pm
Looks like the bits where nobody is.
That was my first thought, but according to the map the central belt (i.e. more densely populated bit) of Scotland seems to be doing about as well as the rest, with just the Borders doing better. Which doesn't seem to make a lot of sense tbh, but I have to admit I've not been following all of this too closely.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:02 pm
by jimbob
headshot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:04 pm
“…but cases remain low”
How can they STILL not get it???
Indeed. If cases are still detectable after a few weeks, it means it's more than holding its own. Because simple rules of chance say it would otherwise be swamped by the A1 variant
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:36 am
by Millennie Al
jimbob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:02 pm
headshot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:04 pm
“…but cases remain low”
How can they STILL not get it???
Indeed. If cases are still detectable after a few weeks, it means it's more than holding its own. Because simple rules of chance say it would otherwise be swamped by the A1 variant
From the news article cited:
In Denmark, where BA.2 makes up around 50% of cases , ...
so "low" is used in some narrow sense, such as aplying only ot the UK.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:07 am
by shpalman
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:09 am
by shpalman
More up-to-date graphs are at @
Mike_Honey_.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:19 am
by shpalman
the OWID daily case rates for those countries, for comparison
- coronavirus-data-explorer.png (459.56 KiB) Viewed 3435 times
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:41 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Looks like BA.2 is spread by hygge.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:42 pm
by hakwright
I've noticed that new UK cases, having fallen from a peak in Dec/Jan, have flat-lined for a while, and the 7-day average is now edging up very slightly. Could be nothing more than noise that will disappear in an overall trend of falling numbers... but haven't seen any serious comment on the (slightly) increasing case numbers yet. Might be connected to BA.2? Or not. Might be a shift in behaviour?
Same thing is happening in Greece, cases have been falling steadily from recent peak, but now edging up very slightly.
I hope both will continue their downward trend soon, but am watching the stats a little nervously at the moment.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pm
by raven
Post-Christmas peak has passed, cases plateau and then everybody relaxes slightly/goes back to work as they've been told so you get a slight rise perhaps? Or people've stopped testing so much because they're not visiting the elderly relatives like they were over Christmas, so we're not picking up so many asymptomatic cases, and the apparent fall/plateau wasn't totally accurate.
Speaking of which,sister who works in a primary school can't believe cases are falling because so many people she knows have it, including quite a few people who are getting it for the second time.
We're supposed to start adding reinfections to the case data soonish, aren't we.Cynically, I suspect they're waiting for things to die down enough that it won't cause a dramatic increase.
ETA: Just looked at the case data for where sister is, and yep, cases are rising in her area, plus the heat map is pretty scary:
- 2022-01-25 Cases heatmap.png (55.29 KiB) Viewed 3285 times
.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:52 pm
by Herainestold
raven wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pm
Post-Christmas peak has passed, cases plateau and then everybody relaxes slightly/goes back to work as they've been told so you get a slight rise perhaps? Or people've stopped testing so much because they're not visiting the elderly relatives like they were over Christmas, so we're not picking up so many asymptomatic cases, and the apparent fall/plateau wasn't totally accurate.
Speaking of which,sister who works in a primary school can't believe cases are falling because so many people she knows have it, including quite a few people who are getting it for the second time.
We're supposed to start adding reinfections to the case data soonish, aren't we.Cynically, I suspect they're waiting for things to die down enough that it won't cause a dramatic increase.
ETA: Just looked at the case data for where sister is, and yep, cases are rising in her area, plus the heat map is pretty scary:2022-01-25 Cases heatmap.png.
This is far, far from over.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:09 pm
by Bird on a Fire
