Anti covid vax stuff

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discovolante
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Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:00 pm

Hi folks,

An old uni friend has done a big post on Facebook about how the covid vaccines aren't safe. As far as I'm aware he isn't a covid denier nor is he generally anti vax, just you know, suspicious of authority, big pharma etc. I was going to go through the info he had put up and try and respond to him but well, I'm on my holidays this week, and a wise person suggested to me that you lot may be able to help...broadly speaking I know what data I want to compare and so on, it's more just that...I CBA right now :oops:
Btw if there is anything in this lot of info that is genuinely of concern that would be good to know about too, in the spirit of genuine enquiry rather than just 'debunking'. Stuff like that can be compared against death/serious illness rates from covid etc of course as well if relevant.

Btw you'll see he makes assumptions about what an 'adverse event' means in FDA terms, unless I'm mistaken it's a bit like the yellow card scheme so causation hasn't necessarily been established, I have flagged this with him already but if I'm wrong please let me know!

So I'll copy and paste what I can from the FB post and if anyone fancies a go at looking at it, be my guest. There is quite a lot he has linked to but probably best to try and keep responses relatively succinct, although in fairness I should probably take responsibility for that!

Here goes. It might be messy because it's a mixture of FB text, images and links in comments. I'm on my phone as well so sorry in advance.

Also - he is English, and lives in Australia. So may be helpful to use those countries as reference points.
I'm posting this because I can't sit on the fence any more while they push this on kids.
๐€๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐Ÿ,๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐ฉ๐ž๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ซ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ.

This is not some conspiracy nonsense.
This is not some self-reported or questionable data.
๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐…๐ƒ๐€'๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ฌ๐œ๐ข๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐๐š๐ญ๐š.

This is real science.
This is data from the drug makers and the regulatory authorities.
They are telling us itโ€™s safe โ€“ itโ€™s not.

They tracked adverse events in the first 10 weeks after the first shot roll out. They have only just released it because they were sued, but they aren't going to release it in full for 55 years.

This is just the first bit of data released, and just one study.
This was not meant to be made public, and weโ€™re lucky a judge thought otherwise.

- 3,067 actually developed the full disease from the shot.
- 10s of thousands more permanently injured or disabled.
- 23 spontaneous abortions, 238 pregnancies "missing an outcome."
- All of this was "within the expected outcomes" and "did not raise new safety issues."

They have then proceeded to push this, and potentially infinite boosters, on the rest of the world, with coercion and manipulation never seen in living memory. How many careers have been ended and industries decimated to push this on us under false pretenses? This is becoming undeniable based on documents like this.

And now they want to put tiny little 5 years olds in danger of known, serious harm.

They know this is killing and seriously injuring people in their thousands and they are lying blatantly about it. It's here, in black and white, ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ข๐ซ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฌ from the start.
They must have the blood and/or scars of millions on their hands by now.

๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ฉ.

Please read the comments for the source and more links to up to date medical science you need to know.
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https://phmpt.org/pfizers-documents/?fb ... sLIf3-wqHM

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lane ... CzQ7kk#%20

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10. ... twymxEcnck

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3468459 ... RnrS_FWNgw

Anyway soz that's a huge info dump :oops: and he added comments to the links which I haven't copied in...I don't expect anyone to go through all of it but I know a lot of you like this sort of stuff so...knock yourselves out!

(By the way, I feel slightly bad copying and pasting so much but I saw he has said he doesn't want to make the post public but is happy for it to be copied and pasted without attribution so...that's what I've done)
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by bob sterman » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:17 pm

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:00 pm
Btw you'll see he makes assumptions about what an 'adverse event' means in FDA terms, unless I'm mistaken it's a bit like the yellow card scheme so causation hasn't necessarily been established, I have flagged this with him already but if I'm wrong please let me know!
That is the basis of it all. When you administer over 200 million doses (as in the US) by chance some people will have bad stuff happen and even die shortly after receiving their dose.

When this happens - of course a responsible clinician sends in a post-authorization adverse event report.

Then the FDA has to analyse these and see whether anything is happening more often than you'd expect by chance.

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by Beaker » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:24 pm

All the usual caveats about the adverse events database.
Easy claim to rebut - how can he claim anyone โ€˜developed the full disease from the shotโ€™? There is a pandemic on, of course some people will be infected at or around the time they get vaccinated, given that it takes 2 weeks to fully develop a response, and is not 100% effective. The vaccine cannot give you Covid.

The cherry picked data shows number of reported events, but without the normal rate - which would be about the same.

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:44 pm

bob sterman wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:17 pm
discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:00 pm
Btw you'll see he makes assumptions about what an 'adverse event' means in FDA terms, unless I'm mistaken it's a bit like the yellow card scheme so causation hasn't necessarily been established, I have flagged this with him already but if I'm wrong please let me know!
That is the basis of it all. When you administer over 200 million doses (as in the US) by chance some people will have bad stuff happen and even die shortly after receiving their dose.

When this happens - of course a responsible clinician sends in a post-authorization adverse event report.

Then the FDA has to analyse these and see whether anything is happening more often than you'd expect by chance.
Yep I'm aware of the general principle but I guess what I'm after is some analysis of what I've linked to, I.e. is there really any evidence of causation or anything above what would normally be expected, on a population level how does that compare to covid (obviously that's a bit complicated once you get into the impact of healthcare resources, are we far enough into it to look at excess deaths?), and in particular whether his concerns about the cost vs benefit of vaccinating children can be addressed, because that seems to be at the heart of it. Eg. You'll see he thinks it's pointless because of supposedly minimal effect on transmission etc.

ETA sorry I realised I haven't c and p'd the bit where he talks about effect on transmission but hopefully that provides a bit more context about his concerns.
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:47 pm

Beaker wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:24 pm
All the usual caveats about the adverse events database.
Easy claim to rebut - how can he claim anyone โ€˜developed the full disease from the shotโ€™? There is a pandemic on, of course some people will be infected at or around the time they get vaccinated, given that it takes 2 weeks to fully develop a response, and is not 100% effective. The vaccine cannot give you Covid.

The cherry picked data shows number of reported events, but without the normal rate - which would be about the same.
It was originally my intention to look into the normal rates of the events rather than just assume but that's one of the many things i haven't got round to.

This guy's not being a dick, he's genuinely concerned because he has young kids and is scared they are going to have a vaccine that will be of minimal benefit to them and society but which is likely to cause them harm. In his view.
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by jimbob » Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:46 pm

One of my tweets on a related topic.


https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/14 ... 78569?s=20
How much more data do you want? By the end of October, in England and Wales alone there have been 90-million doses. 13 deaths where the vaccine was a factor, compared to 151,000 where Covid was involved

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales

I'm merely a numerate layperson
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by monkey » Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:12 pm

One bit of the report that isn't quoted is this bit:
The limitations of post-marketing adverse drug event reporting should be considered when
interpreting these data:
โ€ข Reports are submitted voluntarily, and the magnitude of underreporting is unknown.
Some of the factors that may influence whether an event is reported include: length of
time since marketing, market share of the drug, publicity about a drug or an AE,
seriousness of the reaction, regulatory actions, awareness by health professionals and
consumers of adverse drug event reporting, and litigation.
โ€ข Because many external factors influence whether or not an AE is reported, the
spontaneous reporting system yields reporting proportions not incidence rates. As a
result, it is generally not appropriate to make between-drug comparisons using these
proportions; the spontaneous reporting system should be used for signal detection
rather than hypothesis testing.
โ€ข In some reports, clinical information (such as medical history, validation of diagnosis,
time from drug use to onset of illness, dose, and use of concomitant drugs) is missing
or incomplete, and follow-up information may not be available.
โ€ข An accumulation of adverse event reports (AERs) does not necessarily indicate that a
particular AE was caused by the drug; rather, the event may be due to an underlying
disease or some other factor(s) such as past medical history or concomitant
medication.
It's on page 6.

The points you need to make the most are in the report and being ignored by whoever put all this together. They explain why you can't use the data in the way it has been used above.

(If you haven't found it yet - clicky)

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:33 am

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:47 pm
This guy's not being a dick, he's genuinely concerned because he has young kids and is scared they are going to have a vaccine that will be of minimal benefit to them and society but which is likely to cause them harm. In his view.
Maybe he's not being a dick, but he's doing something bad. All the stuff you quoted was not the result of his personal research - he has passed on misinformation which will kill people. That's wrong.

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:36 am

Millennie Al wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:33 am
discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:47 pm
This guy's not being a dick, he's genuinely concerned because he has young kids and is scared they are going to have a vaccine that will be of minimal benefit to them and society but which is likely to cause them harm. In his view.
Maybe he's not being a dick, but he's doing something bad. All the stuff you quoted was not the result of his personal research - he has passed on misinformation which will kill people. That's wrong.
Yeah that's kind of why I started a thread asking people to help me respond to it.

So thanks to those who have responded so far :)
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by Sciolus » Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:12 am

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:44 pm
in particular whether his concerns about the cost vs benefit of vaccinating children can be addressed, because that seems to be at the heart of it. Eg. You'll see he thinks it's pointless because of supposedly minimal effect on transmission etc.

ETA sorry I realised I haven't c and p'd the bit where he talks about effect on transmission but hopefully that provides a bit more context about his concerns.
Well yes, the question of vaccinating children is finely balanced between benefits to the individual (frankly very low), benefits to society (uncertain but probably rather low) and risk of harm to the individual (tiny). That's why countries have been umming and ahhing over it for the last year while the rollout among adults has been continuing. If it were a big conspiracy to kill the kiddies with evil vaccines, they would have gone ahead and done it already, wouldn't they?

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by bob sterman » Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:25 am

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:44 pm
bob sterman wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:17 pm
discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:00 pm
Btw you'll see he makes assumptions about what an 'adverse event' means in FDA terms, unless I'm mistaken it's a bit like the yellow card scheme so causation hasn't necessarily been established, I have flagged this with him already but if I'm wrong please let me know!
That is the basis of it all. When you administer over 200 million doses (as in the US) by chance some people will have bad stuff happen and even die shortly after receiving their dose.

When this happens - of course a responsible clinician sends in a post-authorization adverse event report.

Then the FDA has to analyse these and see whether anything is happening more often than you'd expect by chance.
Yep I'm aware of the general principle but I guess what I'm after is some analysis of what I've linked to, I.e. is there really any evidence of causation or anything above what would normally be expected,
The FDA do that analysis - that's why the pasted material is littered with statements "The cumulative case review does not raise new safety issues".

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:26 am

Can anyone comment on this particular study (link also in the OP) https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10. ... aGiUkTYfqo

Other than 'the risk is still lower than not vaccinating people against covid'.
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:51 am

Oh I have another question/comment. I could look into this myself later but I've just gone out so I'm gonna ask anyway in case anyone can point me in the right direction. Presumably regulators have approved vaccines for children because the benefits outweigh the risks. I suppose where there *may* be common ground with my friend is that *if* the benefits are marginal (and I'm not sure if they are or not), what does that mean for policy decisions to vaccinate kids in already well vaccinated countries vs ensuring vaccines get to places where coverage is poor and low update is due to lack of supply? Is there any commentary on this (other than the esteemed mikeh who has been very helpful and informative on this issue throughout)?

I'm deliberately distinguishing between regulatory and policy decisions here in case that wasn't clear, and I guess I'm looking for professional/expert insight if anyone has come across any (again apart from Mr H!) I mean I'm inclined to think that either there isn't a definitive answer here or it's a no brainer, we should be trying to achieve decent vaccination coverage across the world first.
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:19 pm

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:26 am
Can anyone comment on this particular study (link also in the OP) https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10. ... aGiUkTYfqo

Other than 'the risk is still lower than not vaccinating people against covid'.
The article has an expression of concern which is worth looking at.

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:22 pm

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:51 am
Oh I have another question/comment. I could look into this myself later but I've just gone out so I'm gonna ask anyway in case anyone can point me in the right direction. Presumably regulators have approved vaccines for children because the benefits outweigh the risks. I suppose where there *may* be common ground with my friend is that *if* the benefits are marginal (and I'm not sure if they are or not), what does that mean for policy decisions to vaccinate kids in already well vaccinated countries vs ensuring vaccines get to places where coverage is poor and low update is due to lack of supply?
In an "eat your dinner, there are kids starving in Africa" kind of way?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by monkey » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:35 pm

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:26 am
Can anyone comment on this particular study (link also in the OP) https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10. ... aGiUkTYfqo

Other than 'the risk is still lower than not vaccinating people against covid'.
I think there was a twitter thread doing that one. It included the slides from the presentation. The abstract definitely didn't do what it said on the tin. I'll see if I can find it, might be a while though. It might have been linked to somewhere here already though. At the very least someone had plotted the results with the error bars on, showing that they don't look as significant as made out by anti vaxxers in a visual way, which might be useful for you.

For starters it's got an expression of concern on it, pointing out some flaws and oddities: clicky

And the author might have used to have been a heart surgeon, but he's a proper quack now. He promotes an unevidenced diet and sells supplements: clicky1 clicky2

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by bob sterman » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:50 pm

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:26 am
Can anyone comment on this particular study (link also in the OP) https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10. ... aGiUkTYfqo

Other than 'the risk is still lower than not vaccinating people against covid'.
My non-expert assumption is - raised inflammatory markers in the absence of a clear cause of current inflammation are good biomarkers for CVD risk because they track ongoing chronic inflammatory processes.

However, this doesn't mean you should assume that raised inflammatory markers when there is a clear recent cause (e.g. infection, vaccination etc) predict long term CVD risk.

Analogy - anemia without an obvious cause is a biomarker for gastrointestinal malignancy - anemia shortly after you've lost a pint of blood after an unfortunate DIY accident is not a a biomarker for gastrointestinal malignancy.

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by monkey » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:55 pm

monkey wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:35 pm
discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:26 am
Can anyone comment on this particular study (link also in the OP) https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10. ... aGiUkTYfqo

Other than 'the risk is still lower than not vaccinating people against covid'.
I think there was a twitter thread doing that one. It included the slides from the presentation. The abstract definitely didn't do what it said on the tin. I'll see if I can find it, might be a while though. It might have been linked to somewhere here already though. At the very least someone had plotted the results with the error bars on, showing that they don't look as significant as made out by anti vaxxers in a visual way, which might be useful for you.

For starters it's got an expression of concern on it, pointing out some flaws and oddities: clicky

And the author might have used to have been a heart surgeon, but he's a proper quack now. He promotes an unevidenced diet and sells supplements: clicky1 clicky2
Retraction watch on the abstract: clicky and clicky

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:06 pm

monkey wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:55 pm
monkey wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:35 pm
discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:26 am
Can anyone comment on this particular study (link also in the OP) https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10. ... aGiUkTYfqo

Other than 'the risk is still lower than not vaccinating people against covid'.
I think there was a twitter thread doing that one. It included the slides from the presentation. The abstract definitely didn't do what it said on the tin. I'll see if I can find it, might be a while though. It might have been linked to somewhere here already though. At the very least someone had plotted the results with the error bars on, showing that they don't look as significant as made out by anti vaxxers in a visual way, which might be useful for you.

For starters it's got an expression of concern on it, pointing out some flaws and oddities: clicky

And the author might have used to have been a heart surgeon, but he's a proper quack now. He promotes an unevidenced diet and sells supplements: clicky1 clicky2
Retraction watch on the abstract: clicky and clicky
Thank you! :) will have a proper look at these links later I.e. when I'm home.

Shpalman, I mean are the benefits so marginal that the jabs really would be better used elsewhere (you could say that for the entire double vax plus booster programme I suppose, given the extreme disparities, but - pre omicron at least - at least there was evidence that this would provide good protection against hospitalisation and death in adults whereas as far as I'm aware children were at fairly low risk anyway).
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by monkey » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:24 pm

Here's that twitter thread - clicky

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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:28 pm

monkey wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:24 pm
Here's that twitter thread - clicky
Thanks :) it's a shame about the tone of some of these articles and threads, it makes them a bit tricky to share with people who are already suspicious. I may have to pass off that person's work as my own *shrug*
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by monkey » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:34 pm

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:28 pm
monkey wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:24 pm
Here's that twitter thread - clicky
Thanks :) it's a shame about the tone of some of these articles and threads, it makes them a bit tricky to share with people who are already suspicious. I may have to pass off that person's work as my own *shrug*
There's plenty of choice for the Quackery stuff, I just picked the first one that seemed to do a bit of detail, but didn't read it properly. Just do a quick google and you'll find one you like, maybe a shorter one would be better anyway - more likely to be read.

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discovolante
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:41 pm

monkey wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:34 pm
discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:28 pm
monkey wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:24 pm
Here's that twitter thread - clicky
Thanks :) it's a shame about the tone of some of these articles and threads, it makes them a bit tricky to share with people who are already suspicious. I may have to pass off that person's work as my own *shrug*
There's plenty of choice for the Quackery stuff, I just picked the first one that seemed to do a bit of detail, but didn't read it properly. Just do a quick google and you'll find one you like, maybe a shorter one would be better anyway - more likely to be read.
Thanks - sorry I wasn't blaming you at all, just a comment/observation.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.

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shpalman
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:31 pm

discovolante wrote: โ†‘
Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:06 pm
Shpalman, I mean are the benefits so marginal that the jabs really would be better used elsewhere (you could say that for the entire double vax plus booster programme I suppose, given the extreme disparities, but - pre omicron at least - at least there was evidence that this would provide good protection against hospitalisation and death in adults whereas as far as I'm aware children were at fairly low risk anyway).
At the end of September, Italy stopped having vaccines delivered, since there was only demand for ~160,000 doses per day and we'd built up some stock. It's only now in December that deliveries have started up again since with the boosting and the few people finally getting around to it we're ramping back up to ~500,000 per day.

This means that Pfizer and Moderna between them would have had about 30 million doses worth of spare capacity just counting the doses which Italy didn't need. Generally, Europe's vaccination rate dropped to 0.2 per 100 per day from a peak of 0.6. That corresponds to about 3 million fewer doses per day. So that's, what, 200 million doses which Europe didn't need but which Pfizer and Moderna clearly had the capacity to keep producing?

Since mid-August maybe between 1 and 2 million doses have been administered in Africa per day such that they have indeed done about 200 million over the summer but I don't notice their doses-per-day following the inverse of the doses per day given in Europe and it's not obviously dropping now that Europe is ramping up its booster program.

We'd also be safer if more people in Eastern Europe got vaccinated, and there's no supply problem there.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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bjn
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Re: Anti covid vax stuff

Post by bjn » Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:26 pm

Correlation of COVID deaths per 100,000 by political affiliation in the USA. You will all find this unsurprising given the relative Democrat and Republican vaccination rates and their attachment to reality.

It is pretty stark none the less.

Image

Original article.

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