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Nero
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Question

Post by Nero » Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:22 pm

I know we don't give medical advice on here. But would like to get your collective steer.

Like most of us, I've not seen any of my family for almost 18 months. Been invited to spend Christmas with my brother, his family, his in-laws, and a few extended family members. Will involve train travel over quite a few hours with changes at major stations. And a stay in a local pub for three days. All others have been tripple jab, I've not had the booster yet.

With the Omicron spike, I'm thinking the above is probably not a sensible idea. Really want to see nieces etc, but don't want to be daft. I'm not worried about my health particularly, just the potential of forward Covid transmission and logistics of isolating if someone tests positive.

Thoughts?

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Catbabel
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Re: Question

Post by headshot » Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:31 pm

My brother invited Frau HS, my dad and me to his place on the 26th and 27th. This will be after his sister in law and their family visit in the 23rd, and they go out to a restaurant for a meal for his wife’s birthday on the 24th.

We’ve managed to reschedule for a visit on the 22nd…before he goes out and mixes with randoms and their children.

He doesn’t seem to understand why I think it’s risky behaviour, so I’ve managed to frame it as “getting to see one-another before lockdown”.

🙄

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Stupidosaurus
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Re: Question

Post by Stupidosaurus » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:00 pm

Hi Nero, I appreciate your dilemma, having distant family myself. I used to do various lab risk assessments fairly regularly, so in my head the equation looks like 'number of people X exposure time X proximity', with each one banded low/medium/high (say 1,2,3 for numerical equivalents. This is all very crude, but:

The train journey sounds like 3x1x2 = 6 (low/medium risk)
Staying at the pub sounds like 2x2x2 = 8 (medium)
The family visit sounds like 2x3x3= 18 (high risk)

Low/medium/high are just relative values.

You can probably be fairly antisocial in the pub (stay in your room as much as possible, get room service for food (or takeaway) so that could go down to a 4.

So, looks to me like the period of the visit is the highest risk, not travelling or staying at the pub. The question then is what you can reasonably do to manage that risk, which may be a more involved discussion.

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Re: Question

Post by IvanV » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:00 pm

Hypothesis 1. The booster jab substantially reduces the risk of severe disease. So try to avoid getting it before you have had the booster, plus sufficient time after. There is are now a huge number of cases of a much more transmissible variant of the virus out there. There is a high probability you will be exposed to it during your journey and large family Christmas.

Hypothesis 2. The two jabs substantially reduced the risk of severe disease. So the large relative risk reduction supplied by the third jab doesn't amount to very much absolute risk reduction. If you have much contact with other humanity in your present daily life, there is a substantial probability you are going to be exposed to it anyway before you get the booster and enough time afterwards. So do what you want and don't worry.

Which consideration is stronger with you depends upon your situation. In my case, because I am in such strong, but secondhand, contact with the rest of humanity through living with a schoolteacher and a school student, I expect we'll all have a 4th bout of Covid before long, despite getting all the vaccinations as soon as invited. So Hypothesis 2 is the direction I'd lean in my personal situation. I can understand you may see it differently.

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lpm
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Re: Question

Post by lpm » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:04 pm

Risk is highly dependent on age. The first question to ask yourself is: could I be carrying Covid to an over 65 year old.

The other day my sister-in-law said "What's omicron?" Blissful ignorance. That side of the family has arranged a massive 40 person event at a Scottish manor house, hired for a week, with caterers and entertainers. To celebrate Christmas, a couple of birthdays, a couple of retirements, to see a relative flying in from the States who has terminal cancer and to introduce great-grandparents to new babies. They are going ahead. Sunk costs. It was a lot of admin to arrange and a lot of money has been spent and nobody's seen each other for two years. They don't think much of Scotland's guidance to limit to three households, that's just "Queen Nicola throwing her weight around". I'm limiting my comments to the do-you-think-that's-wise variety.
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Stupidosaurus
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Re: Question

Post by Stupidosaurus » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:11 pm

The usual hierarchy of risk control would be:
1 Remove the activity (don't go)
2 Reduce the exposure (go, but maybe for a shorter time or avoiding some events)
3 Engineering controls (put your family in a big glass box with HVAC or local exhaust ventilation, interact via glove box or half-body suit). Probably unpopular. Maybe just open some windows instead?
4 (some other stuff I can't remember)
5 Usual testing, vaccination, mask malarkey. Can you grab a booster before you go?

Herainestold
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Re: Question

Post by Herainestold » Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:37 am

I would be very cautious, remembering that the NHS might not be able to help if you fall sick.

Make sure you have FP3 masks, see if you can get portable HEPA filters.
Dark days lie ahead.

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lpm
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Re: Question

Post by lpm » Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:28 am

lpm wrote:
Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:04 pm
The other day my sister-in-law said "What's omicron?" Blissful ignorance. That side of the family has arranged a massive 40 person event at a Scottish manor house, hired for a week, with caterers and entertainers. To celebrate Christmas, a couple of birthdays, a couple of retirements, to see a relative flying in from the States who has terminal cancer and to introduce great-grandparents to new babies. They are going ahead. Sunk costs. It was a lot of admin to arrange and a lot of money has been spent and nobody's seen each other for two years. They don't think much of Scotland's guidance to limit to three households, that's just "Queen Nicola throwing her weight around". I'm limiting my comments to the do-you-think-that's-wise variety.
You'll never guess what.

Turns out an uninvited visitor showed up. Which seems to have come as a surprise to them all.

18 confirmed positive.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

nezumi
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Re: Question

Post by nezumi » Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:41 am

Gosh what an enormous surprise.
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Question

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Dec 30, 2021 1:38 pm

A bit of gloating in the BoaF family.

My two Mail-reading Johnson-liking aunts have been out shopping and going to bars and don't wear masks on the bus snd hosting parties and all sorts, apparently without catching it, while my more cautious mum and I are in isolation over Christmas and New years.

One of them had a lung biopsy this year and still has crap lung function after 60ish years of smoking (though she's just quit), so while they're mercifully both boosted I wouldn't fancy her chances.
You can shove your climate crisis up your arse!

Take thy beak from out my heart, and take thy form from off my door.

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