Resuming shielding or not?

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nezumi
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Resuming shielding or not?

Post by nezumi » Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:45 pm

I've rather enjoyed the last few months of reasonable freedom but with Omicron on the up, do we High Riskers go back to shielding? Two vaxxes and a booster (Astrazena the warrior princess and Michelle Pfizer) and nary a word from the debatably-government. Is there anything that indicates heightened risk for Group 4 (Not the sh*t company*)?

Is it worth going back into shielding-style isolation or can I keep doing my own shopping and therefore not missing out on the baaargains? I might be group 4 but I am also Yorkshire dammit!


* I hope they collapse with no repercussions to their normal workers. Except the dickheads, obviously.
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

Herainestold
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Re: Resuming shielding or not?

Post by Herainestold » Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:53 pm

nezumi wrote:
Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:45 pm
I've rather enjoyed the last few months of reasonable freedom but with Omicron on the up, do we High Riskers go back to shielding? Two vaxxes and a booster (Astrazena the warrior princess and Michelle Pfizer) and nary a word from the debatably-government. Is there anything that indicates heightened risk for Group 4 (Not the sh*t company*)?

Is it worth going back into shielding-style isolation or can I keep doing my own shopping and therefore not missing out on the baaargains? I might be group 4 but I am also Yorkshire dammit!


* I hope they collapse with no repercussions to their normal workers. Except the dickheads, obviously.
I just tried to look it up, and came up with no firm recommendations but I would say yes, keep shielding.
Dark days lie ahead.

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Stranger Mouse
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Re: Resuming shielding or not?

Post by Stranger Mouse » Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:38 pm

If you continue shielding for now you’ll have an idea in about ten days whether it was the right decision and I think it probably will be.
A caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity.

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lpm
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Re: Resuming shielding or not?

Post by lpm » Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:38 pm

Shield until hospital numbers have peaked and are on the way down, IMO.
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nezumi
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Re: Resuming shielding or not?

Post by nezumi » Tue Dec 28, 2021 8:29 am

Thanks guys, I'm on the same page. Got my food delivery booked in and prepared to spend the next two weeks blissfully unable to leave the house.
Non fui. Fui. Non sum. Non curo.

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Resuming shielding or not?

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:32 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:38 pm
Shield until hospital numbers have peaked and are on the way down, IMO.
Nerd point with no practical relevance: I would have thought that the optimum time to go to hospital ought to be based on current occupancy, not the rate or direction of change. 90% down to 85% nationally still means some places are at effectively 105%.

Very early in the pandemic, Ben Goldacre tweeted (possibly after getting in from the pub; he deleted it quite quickly) that he was going to go round licking bannisters in the Tube station (approx) so he got sick before the ICUs filled up.
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lpm
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Re: Resuming shielding or not?

Post by lpm » Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:45 am

The fun comes from trying to predict hospital levels in two weeks, which is when you might need it if you're infected today. But you also can't predict how long it'll take to catch Omi once you stop shielding - could be weeks or months.

Obviously don't stop shielding now on an exponentially rising hospitalisation curve. But on a falling curve you've probably got longer before the next mini wave, whereas if you wait to a low point you might catch the start of the next upwards swing.
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Herainestold
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Re: Resuming shielding or not?

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:54 am

"Timing the market" is a difficult strategy to get right.
Given the contagiousness and short incubation time for Omichron, its probably about 5 days from exposure to hospitalization.
i think you are going to need to shield for at least two months. I am limiting contacts to a maximum of two shopping trips, brief and double masked, when shops first open in the morning, per week. I will assess the situation and adjust my strategy, if needed, in March.
Dark days lie ahead.

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