Here's what I don't get

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Here's what I don't get

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:33 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:16 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:04 pm
Given that appx 12% of common cold infections are caused by a Coronavirus, there was a hypothesis that this would provide immunity to Covid-19.

I've no idea what the current thinking is on this.
I think that's been debunked. Even Covid doesn't give immunity against Covid. (Lots of Delta sufferers are getting Omicron).

Could still be immune though.Some people just are.
We have to think of immunity as non-binary. Everyone has some degree of immunity to everything, to the extent that immunity means not being killed by it within a couple of days of exposure. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 varied from 0.1% to close to 100% (there were asymptotic cases even then), with older people more at risk of being at the 0.1% end and not all that many at the 100% end. Vaccines and recovery move us all up the scale, time moves us back down. Right now a great many positive LFTs are completely asymptomatic (people are only taking them because they have to for work, or because a family member has tested positive), suggesting that a lot of people are close to the 100% end.

My understanding is that the 1918 flu pandemic was also caused by a novel virus, and since then we have built up a degree of collective immunity to its descendants by a combination of getting flu, annual jabs, and mutations that on average make it less nasty (but sometimes not).

It would be interesting (but unethical and impossible) to see what happened if you kept someone away from the common cold for the first 70 years of their life and then infected them. It might be quite bad.

Both first-generation lockdown skeptics and over-enthusiastic vaccine advocates (who imagined that vaccines would stop transmission and for a long period) are made to look silly by these examples. Nobody thinks they will be immune (in the binary sense) from the flu for more than a season after catching it, or a cold for more than a month.
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badger
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Re: Here's what I don't get

Post by badger » Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:30 pm

Mrs Badger & I (both boostered) also dodged it when mini-badgers (10 & &, unable to be vaxed) brought it back from School in December (Delta) and in January (Omi). We didn't bother isolating the minis in January for various reason, and fully expected to test positive on our daily LFTs. Nada.

Turns out the Secondary Attack Rate, while apparently higher for Omi than Delta (31% v 21%) is not as high as I expected... at least according to this study of several thousand Danish households (apols if this study has been done elsewhere):

household transmission pre-print

Herainestold
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Re: Here's what I don't get

Post by Herainestold » Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:19 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:33 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:16 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:04 pm
Given that appx 12% of common cold infections are caused by a Coronavirus, there was a hypothesis that this would provide immunity to Covid-19.

I've no idea what the current thinking is on this.
I think that's been debunked. Even Covid doesn't give immunity against Covid. (Lots of Delta sufferers are getting Omicron).

Could still be immune though.Some people just are.
We have to think of immunity as non-binary. Everyone has some degree of immunity to everything, to the extent that immunity means not being killed by it within a couple of days of exposure. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 varied from 0.1% to close to 100% (there were asymptotic cases even then), with older people more at risk of being at the 0.1% end and not all that many at the 100% end. Vaccines and recovery move us all up the scale, time moves us back down. Right now a great many positive LFTs are completely asymptomatic (people are only taking them because they have to for work, or because a family member has tested positive), suggesting that a lot of people are close to the 100% end.

My understanding is that the 1918 flu pandemic was also caused by a novel virus, and since then we have built up a degree of collective immunity to its descendants by a combination of getting flu, annual jabs, and mutations that on average make it less nasty (but sometimes not).

It would be interesting (but unethical and impossible) to see what happened if you kept someone away from the common cold for the first 70 years of their life and then infected them. It might be quite bad.

Both first-generation lockdown skeptics and over-enthusiastic vaccine advocates (who imagined that vaccines would stop transmission and for a long period) are made to look silly by these examples. Nobody thinks they will be immune (in the binary sense) from the flu for more than a season after catching it, or a cold for more than a month.
Immunity seems to last about six months, based on vaccine data. I don't know about natural immunity, but anecdotally seeing the number of Delta sufferers being diagnosed with Omni three months later, it could be less. Covid seems to mutate faster than influenza, so rather than flu season we are likely to see two or three covid waves per year. And unlike flu there is a high chance of Long covid and health impairments for considerable periods of time.
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warumich
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Re: Here's what I don't get

Post by warumich » Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:51 pm

Thanks guys!
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sTeamTraen
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Re: Here's what I don't get

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:51 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:19 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:33 am
We have to think of immunity as non-binary. Everyone has some degree of immunity to everything, to the extent that immunity means not being killed by it within a couple of days of exposure. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 varied from 0.1% to close to 100% (there were asymptotic cases even then), with older people more at risk of being at the 0.1% end and not all that many at the 100% end. Vaccines and recovery move us all up the scale, time moves us back down. Right now a great many positive LFTs are completely asymptomatic (people are only taking them because they have to for work, or because a family member has tested positive), suggesting that a lot of people are close to the 100% end.
Immunity seems to last about six months, based on vaccine data. I don't know about natural immunity, but anecdotally seeing the number of Delta sufferers being diagnosed with Omni three months later, it could be less. Covid seems to mutate faster than influenza, so rather than flu season we are likely to see two or three covid waves per year. And unlike flu there is a high chance of Long covid and health impairments for considerable periods of time.
Again, immunity is not a binary thing that "lasts" until it "stops working". Plus the extent to which it lasts will be subject to some kind of distribution. So a few people will go from 100 to almost zero in 3 months, and others will go from 80 to 60 over 3 years. That's how distributions work. Any attempt to tell simple stories about immunity will fail.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Here's what I don't get

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:25 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:51 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:19 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:33 am
We have to think of immunity as non-binary. Everyone has some degree of immunity to everything, to the extent that immunity means not being killed by it within a couple of days of exposure. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 varied from 0.1% to close to 100% (there were asymptotic cases even then), with older people more at risk of being at the 0.1% end and not all that many at the 100% end. Vaccines and recovery move us all up the scale, time moves us back down. Right now a great many positive LFTs are completely asymptomatic (people are only taking them because they have to for work, or because a family member has tested positive), suggesting that a lot of people are close to the 100% end.
Immunity seems to last about six months, based on vaccine data. I don't know about natural immunity, but anecdotally seeing the number of Delta sufferers being diagnosed with Omni three months later, it could be less. Covid seems to mutate faster than influenza, so rather than flu season we are likely to see two or three covid waves per year. And unlike flu there is a high chance of Long covid and health impairments for considerable periods of time.
Again, immunity is not a binary thing that "lasts" until it "stops working". Plus the extent to which it lasts will be subject to some kind of distribution. So a few people will go from 100 to almost zero in 3 months, and others will go from 80 to 60 over 3 years. That's how distributions work. Any attempt to tell simple stories about immunity will fail.
Its worth noting that you're referring to neutralizing antibodies. But T Cell immunity will also protect against severe illness and will probably last for a long time (decades for other viruses).

So people will keep catching Covid, but vaccination or prior infection means they will be far less likely die or be severely ill than they were two years ago. We aren't going back to March 2020.

Which is not to say that we shall soon treat Covid like we treated seasonal Influenza. Even for the vaccinated, Covid is still far more contagious and much more virulent than Influenza. Its going to continue to cause severe problems for public health systems and vulnerable people are much more at risk of death or serious illness. The new normal isn't going to be a return to 2019.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Here's what I don't get

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Feb 06, 2022 8:20 pm

My son got Covid as well on Thursday and had a high fever for two days. He’s taking a few days to get his strength back but otherwise seems to be ok.

But despite sleeping on the couch in his room while he had a fever I’m still feeling ok and testing negative. Which is completely unexpected.

Perhaps I should start selling my blood.

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