Scrutable

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 99328?s=21

Really god thread. And it’s qualified good news for a change.

Thanks SM, interesting. Just as an aside, I think Twitter now blocks reading of threads of any sort of length if you don't have an account. So it might be that people not on twitter are unable to read all of that. Which is a PITA because it's a long thread with images (although they are from the FT article) but just letting you know.

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:29 pm

Thanks SM, interesting. Just as an aside, I think Twitter now blocks reading of threads of any sort of length if you don't have an account. So it might be that people not on twitter are unable to read all of that. Which is a PITA because it's a long thread with images (although they are from the FT article) but just letting you know.

Thanks for letting me know.

Here’s the FT article if people can’t see the thread https://www.ft.com/content/e26c93a0-90e ... 25e94bc59b

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:29 pm

Thanks SM, interesting. Just as an aside, I think Twitter now blocks reading of threads of any sort of length if you don't have an account. So it might be that people not on twitter are unable to read all of that. Which is a PITA because it's a long thread with images (although they are from the FT article) but just letting you know.

I can see it just fine, but I know what you mean, if I go onto a twitter source it locks up after a few tweets.

One way around that is nitter which is some kind of twitter clone, I dont really understand it, but it works most of the time.

https://nitter.net/jburnmurdoch

Trouble is, as the FT points out, flu mortality can be pretty bad. The old "it's just the flu" thing always ignored that.

We've had near-zero flu for two years. It's going to come bouncing back hard at some point, but presumably old Covid habits of social distancing will mute the impact.

Fundamentally Covid puts the same victims in hospital as flu, so a combined Covid and flu wave is going to put NHS under massive stress. We desperately need to resource properly now, eg nurse training, to cope with the coming years.

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:44 pm

Trouble is, as the FT points out, flu mortality can be pretty bad. The old "it's just the flu" thing always ignored that.

We've had near-zero flu for two years. It's going to come bouncing back hard at some point, but presumably old Covid habits of social distancing will mute the impact.

Fundamentally Covid puts the same victims in hospital as flu, so a combined Covid and flu wave is going to put NHS under massive stress. We desperately need to resource properly now, eg nurse training, to cope with the coming years.

I sometimes wonder if the recent drop in excess deaths has a lot to do with masks, social distancing, self isolation etc having a bigger effect on flu than covid. Chris Hayes pointed out this drop from 200 to 1 which is quite staggering https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... lu-deaths/

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:29 pm

Just as an aside, I think Twitter now blocks reading of threads of any sort of length if you don't have an account.

Viewing threads in incognito mode seems to make things work for me.

monkey wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 3:11 pm

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:29 pm

Just as an aside, I think Twitter now blocks reading of threads of any sort of length if you don't have an account.

Viewing threads in incognito mode seems to make things work for me.

Removing the "?s=21" bit from the end of a url works for me.

jaap wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:53 pm

monkey wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 3:11 pm

discovolante wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:29 pm

Just as an aside, I think Twitter now blocks reading of threads of any sort of length if you don't have an account.

Viewing threads in incognito mode seems to make things work for me.

Removing the "?s=21" bit from the end of a url works for me.

Neat, thanks jaap; over the last couple of weeks or so, they seem to have fixed the view incognito dodge; I just tried the chop ?s=21 dodge and it seems to work.
Happy days!

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:44 pm

Trouble is, as the FT points out, flu mortality can be pretty bad. The old "it's just the flu" thing always ignored that.

We've had near-zero flu for two years. It's going to come bouncing back hard at some point, but presumably old Covid habits of social distancing will mute the impact.

Fundamentally Covid puts the same victims in hospital as flu, so a combined Covid and flu wave is going to put NHS under massive stress. We desperately need to resource properly now, eg nurse training, to cope with the coming years.

Can’t speak for other hospitals, but it’s under massive stress here with just the current levels of Covid. There’s just too much covid about to be able to run a decent healthcare system either because the staff have all got covid or because we’re having to firefight outbreaks on wards, which involve closing those wards to new admissions. I don’t know if it would actually be possible to put in enough resources to manage current levels of Covid + a moderate flu season. Realistically I think you’d be looking at extending hospitals and creating more wards but then I assume you’d need to staff them and make sure you had enough back up staff to cover increased levels of staff sickness.

Fear of nuclear annihilation has overcome fear of covid.

Thanks for the reality check. We are going to back in lockdown before we know it.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:14 am

Fear of nuclear annihilation has overcome fear of covid.

Thanks for the reality check. We are going to back in lockdown before we know it.

No. We aren’t.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:14 am

Fear of nuclear annihilation has overcome fear of covid.

Thanks for the reality check. We are going to back in lockdown before we know it.

The Ukrainian situation has displaced Covid in the news but there is no way we are going back to lockdown in the near future unless the Covid mutates into the Andromeda Strain

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 11:29 am

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:14 am

Fear of nuclear annihilation has overcome fear of covid.

Thanks for the reality check. We are going to back in lockdown before we know it.

The Ukrainian situation has displaced Covid in the news but there is no way we are going back to lockdown in the near future unless the Covid mutates into the Andromeda Strain

If the BA2 strain keeps growing at the same rate we will be in trouble.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 6:22 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 11:29 am

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:14 am

Fear of nuclear annihilation has overcome fear of covid.

Thanks for the reality check. We are going to back in lockdown before we know it.

The Ukrainian situation has displaced Covid in the news but there is no way we are going back to lockdown in the near future unless the Covid mutates into the Andromeda Strain

If the BA2 strain keeps growing at the same rate we will be in trouble.

Explain why.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 6:22 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 11:29 am

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:14 am

Fear of nuclear annihilation has overcome fear of covid.

Thanks for the reality check. We are going to back in lockdown before we know it.

The Ukrainian situation has displaced Covid in the news but there is no way we are going back to lockdown in the near future unless the Covid mutates into the Andromeda Strain

If the BA2 strain keeps growing at the same rate we will be in trouble.

BA2 is 20-30% more infectious than BA1, but it seems to be only equal in terms of symptoms, hospitalisation, fatalities, etc. And the increased infectiousness could be due to people stopping some behaviours because the various governments have said that, eg, mask wearing and isolation isn't required.

BA2 won't be causing increased issues.

Hospitalizations are rising again in UK due to covid complacency and waning immunity.

In both England and Scotland the number of Covid patients in hospital is also increasing: in Scotland the number reached 1,636 on Thursday, surpassing the high of 1,571 on 19 January.

Prof John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said there were likely to be a number of factors behind the rise in infections. These included the relaxation of Covid measures, such as the legal requirement to self-isolate, and the slow shift in people’s behaviour, such as increased socialisation and reduced mask-wearing, he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... s-ons-data

Its not over , it will never be over, we need to remain vigilant.

But nuclear annihilation is a bigger risk, IMO.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:25 pm

Its not over , it will never be over, we need to remain vigilant.

It will never be over in the same way that the Black Death is not over because there are still cases of bubonic plagie today. It will be over in the sense that we will no longer care that it exists.

FP3 masks are cheap now. Good time to stock up before the next wave.

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:39 am

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 6:22 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 11:29 am

The Ukrainian situation has displaced Covid in the news but there is no way we are going back to lockdown in the near future unless the Covid mutates into the Andromeda Strain

If the BA2 strain keeps growing at the same rate we will be in trouble.

BA2 is 20-30% more infectious than BA1, but it seems to be only equal in terms of symptoms, hospitalisation, fatalities, etc. And the increased infectiousness could be due to people stopping some behaviours because the various governments have said that, eg, mask wearing and isolation isn't required.

BA2 won't be causing increased issues.

The bolded.

Not the case as it has displaced BA.1 in the UK, so has to have some infectious advantage over BA.1

UK gets around to expanding its covid symptoms list

It is understood that the government’s chief medical officer would have needed to sign off on the expanded list of symptoms, and he was like, really really busy.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:02 am

UK gets around to expanding its covid symptoms list

3 days after free testing ended. Hmmmmm

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:39 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:02 am

UK gets around to expanding its covid symptoms list

3 days after free testing ended. Hmmmmm

Just listen to R4 PM. They were saying that this is a specific move to make people treat Covid like any other viral infection - with an emphasis on trying to get people to stay home when they are ill...with any virus...but also allowing people the freedom to chose what they do, rather than being compelled.

The symptom list is now so broad it covers almost every viral infection out there!

the deadline for public input for the public inquiry is April 7th

https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/

headshot wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 04, 2022 6:28 pm

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:39 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:02 am

UK gets around to expanding its covid symptoms list

3 days after free testing ended. Hmmmmm

Just listen to R4 PM. They were saying that this is a specific move to make people treat Covid like any other viral infection - with an emphasis on trying to get people to stay home when they are ill...with any virus...but also allowing people the freedom to chose what they do, rather than being compelled.

The symptom list is now so broad it covers almost every viral infection out there!

Given that we didn't manage to create vaccines which are 100% effective against asymptomatic/mild infection, and we quickly gave up on a zero-covid strategy, but that being fully vaccinated does make covid-21 XE Steam edition seem much more like a normal cold as compared to covid-19 in the naïve unvaccinated population, among the survivors anyway, then yes, we should start treating covid more like any other viral infection with the caveat that we should take other viral infections a bit more seriously.

So I'm all for the denormalization of taking ibuprofen/paracetamol and dragging yourself to work anyway, except that would of course require the UK to have a civilized attitude towards employment conditions.

Sniffpetrol once made a fake Lemsip advert which said something like "Your job's on the line so get back to work motherf.cker".