UK covid not over

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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bob sterman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by bob sterman » Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:32 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:04 pm
Martin_B wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:44 am
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:37 am
I am stockpiling PPE, storable food and everyday medical supplies. It could be a long and grim winter.
Still? You made the same post 2 weeks ago: viewtopic.php?p=125352#p125352
I have to admit I am worried.
Would you care to explain what makes you think winter 2022/23 will be worse than winter 2021/22???

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shpalman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:19 pm

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Herainestold
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:56 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:32 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:04 pm
Martin_B wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:44 am


Still? You made the same post 2 weeks ago: viewtopic.php?p=125352#p125352
I have to admit I am worried.
Would you care to explain what makes you think winter 2022/23 will be worse than winter 2021/22???
Yes, I am still preparing for another covid onslaught, if only our health authorities would do the same.

The pace of mutation has picked up, the virus becomes even more transmissible, people are being infected and reinfected in the same month, as now prior infection does not confer immunity. Every infection increases the likelihood of long covid and organ damage.

Vaccine effectiveness is slowly being eroded.

There is only so much you can do as an individual. We need mask mandates, gathering restrictions and we may yet need dynamic lockdown to slow surges.

We are too complacent, covid isn't over, it is getting worse. And our NHS is losing its ability to protect us.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster, Russian people are not.

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bob sterman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by bob sterman » Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:02 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:56 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:32 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:04 pm


I have to admit I am worried.
Would you care to explain what makes you think winter 2022/23 will be worse than winter 2021/22???
Yes, I am still preparing for another covid onslaught, if only our health authorities would do the same.

The pace of mutation has picked up, the virus becomes even more transmissible, people are being infected and reinfected in the same month, as now prior infection does not confer immunity. Every infection increases the likelihood of long covid and organ damage.

Vaccine effectiveness is slowly being eroded.

There is only so much you can do as an individual. We need mask mandates, gathering restrictions and we may yet need dynamic lockdown to slow surges.

We are too complacent, covid isn't over, it is getting worse. And our NHS is losing its ability to protect us.
Lots of assertions there without evidence.

The pace of mutation has picked up? Recently? Got a citation for that?

Reinfection within a month? A widespread issue? Got a citation for that?

Prior infection does not confer immunity? Any immunity? Got a citation for that?

Can I ask - have you had COVID yet?

Herainestold
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:36 pm

I have not had covid. I am extremely careful.

As for your other questions:

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/07/04/ ... er-Plague/

I hope you remain well.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster, Russian people are not.

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bob sterman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by bob sterman » Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:54 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:36 pm
I have not had covid. I am extremely careful.

As for your other questions:

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/07/04/ ... er-Plague/

I hope you remain well.
I was hoping for some direct scientific citations. And you've managed to exaggerate the claims in that article (which arguably already contains quite a bit of exaggeration).

You seem to be seeking out the most pessimistic journalism and then adding hyperbole.

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Tue Jul 19, 2022 5:17 pm

experts say Covid may never settle into a seasonal cycle
Now, successive variants, including the latest BA.2.75 variant, nicknamed Centaurus, are being driven primarily by “immune escape” – the ability to infect people who have been vaccinated and infected, even fairly recently.

The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee advised this week that infections of BA.4/BA.5 variants could occur as early as 28 days after recovery from a previous Covid-19 infection.

“It almost seems as if the rate of replacement of new variants has accelerated,” he said. “There is a shift in what’s driving evolution.”
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Herainestold
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:33 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 5:17 pm

The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee advised this week that infections of BA.4/BA.5 variants could occur as early as 28 days after recovery from a previous Covid-19 infection.

“It almost seems as if the rate of replacement of new variants has accelerated,” he said. “There is a shift in what’s driving evolution.”
Covid once per month. Thats what we have to look forward to.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster, Russian people are not.

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shpalman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:33 pm

WFJ wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
Captalism is bad for life expectancy.
Do you have any empirical evidence for that?
The current state of the NHS
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

WFJ
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by WFJ » Sat Jul 23, 2022 2:04 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:33 pm
WFJ wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
Captalism is bad for life expectancy.
Do you have any empirical evidence for that?
The current state of the NHS
If you're measuring how capitalist a health system is by what proportion of its funding comes from comes from public money, the UK has one of the least capitalist systems in the world. Its problem is underfunding, not economic system.

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shpalman
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm

Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by plodder » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:17 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm
Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
Is that related to this? (no idea if it’s accurate)

https://mobile.twitter.com/1goodtern/st ... 6841348096

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Re: UK covid not over

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:49 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:17 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm
Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
Is that related to this? (no idea if it’s accurate)

https://mobile.twitter.com/1goodtern/st ... 6841348096
I don't know, but I note that new excess death data shows 0-14 age group across Europe (38 Euromomo countries) dying at 📌10x the rate versus 2021 in week 35, & age 15-44 group dying at 📌30% higher than 2021 according to Eric Feigl-Ding and the graphs he's drawn on.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

Herainestold
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Re: UK covid not over

Post by Herainestold » Sun Sep 11, 2022 2:39 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:49 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:17 pm
shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:27 pm
Fewer people died of covid in the UK in 2022 so far compared to this time in 2021

But if you cherry pick the right period of the year there are some which are worse in 2022.
Is that related to this? (no idea if it’s accurate)

https://mobile.twitter.com/1goodtern/st ... 6841348096
I don't know, but I note that new excess death data shows 0-14 age group across Europe (38 Euromomo countries) dying at 📌10x the rate versus 2021 in week 35, & age 15-44 group dying at 📌30% higher than 2021 according to Eric Feigl-Ding and the graphs he's drawn on.
We are pretending Covid has gone away. It has not. It has morphed into something insidious, more dangerous because we choose to ignore it.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster, Russian people are not.

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