UK covid not over

[shpalman]

... just that the government stats aren't properly counting it anymore.

tl;dr look at the ONS survey now that free testing has ended, and there's no way to report paid rapid self-test results to the NHS.

[Sciolus]

The ONS survey was always a better measure of infection rates than test results, in most respects. The main drawback was that it was slow, too late to pick up on new waves. Arguably, it also measures a less useful thing, since it picks up mild and asymptomatic cases, when severe cases are of more importance.

[shpalman]

The ONS survey was always a better measure of infection rates than test results, in most respects. The main drawback was that it was slow, too late to pick up on new waves. Arguably, it also measures a less useful thing, since it picks up mild and asymptomatic cases, when severe cases are of more importance.

Presumably we should still have hospital occupancy numbers, since everyone should still be tested on admission, which tells us something about severity. Admittedly this is also slower than population case numbers, but population case numbers didn't distinguish between mild and severe cases, or between cases who tested themselves because of symptoms and the asymptomatic positives who tested themselves because of possible contact or because they wanted to be sure before going out or going to visit someone vulnerable or whatever.

[Sciolus]

Any ideas why infection levels soared in March but then fell sharply without any discernable intervention? (Still really high though.)

[shpalman]

Was that Omicron appearing just as you relaxed restrictions? Was there a pingdemic or otherwise a kind of self-isolation auto-lockdown? I seem to remember complaints of disruption from everyone being off sick but the last year or two are all a blur.

[Sciolus]

Capture.PNG (65.37 KiB) Viewed 1771 times

Omicron started before Christmas. All legal restrictions ended at the end of Feb, and people pretty much stopped all anti-covid measures immediately. So it's unsurprising that cases went up. I'm just not sure why they came down so abruptly; mass immunity (everyone had just had it over the previous month or so)?

[OffTheRock]

School holidays? There was a 3 week spread across the country for the Easter holidays from 4th-25th April.

Although I think that smaller spike at the start of Jan might be the kids getting BA.1 when they went back after Christmas. I'd have assumed they would have had a reasonable amount of immunity after getting delta in Autumn 2 and BA.1 in Spring 1 so wouldn't have been affected by what I'm assuming is probably the BA.2 spike.

[raven]

Easter I reckon. Possibly a lot of people like us who missed getting it earlier because no school-age kids at home, and then saw family with kids at Easter & got it.

Working theory is that it was BA.2 we had as my sister & her lot were the only ones who didn't get it, and they'd had it December/January. One kid prob had Delta in December, based on it being just a few cases in their class; the rest of them poss Omicron in January, based on kids dropping like flies in at the time.

Lots of kids/parents she knows got reinfected in January after having it in December too, so I think maybe there's limited protection to catching omicron from delta. Maybe protection from severity, though.

Hospital cases are maybe a better indicator at the moment:

Hospitalisations May 26th, BBC.png (89.19 KiB) Viewed 1663 times

[IvanV]

The other source of data, arguably the best source of data, is excess death rates. Those are much harder to hide. UK not doing very well on that measure just now (fortnight lag in data).

[Woodchopper]

The other source of data, arguably the best source of data, is excess death rates. Those are much harder to hide. UK not doing very well on that measure just now (fortnight lag in data).

The data is for each week, and the UK figure for the previous week is negative (-1%). The UK has bounced around between positive and negative excess deaths for the last few months. So there may not be a trend.

[raven]

The latest ONS data on monthly mortality for England & Wales (which is quite laggy as it only goes as far as April) estimates excess deaths for April 2022 of 1522 for England and 67 for Wales. (linky)

What stands out to me though is that Covid is the third leading cause of death.

[shpalman]

a new wave has started in England (and likely about to or has in rest of UK)

TLDR: this will be 3rd wave within 6 months. Long covid an increasing issue - particularly in overexposed professions.

[veravista]

Anecdotal evidence I know, but...

Due to the inclement weather our local jubilee street party had to move partly indoors last Sunday. Approximately 50 people in attendance, very well ventilated large space in a garden with covered areas so not really a petri dish environment. Mrs V now has Covid and is coughing and spluttering like a good 'un and to my knowledge at least 14 other people have it too. Not just suspected but tested.

I'm remaining steadfastly negative (so far).

[veravista]

Hooray, I tested positive this morning and the total round here from the same event is up to 21.

I feel crap

[shpalman]

sublineages of the Omicron variant, BA.4 and BA.5, are kicking off a new wave of cases

Looking over the past two years, and across different places, a wave of Covid-19 cases every three months seems to be the pattern. So it’s not surprising that this is happening again, and we should expect another wave this winter.

The cost-benefit calculation has shifted for many people over time, as other more pressing priorities have taken over. Avoiding infection in 2020 by restricting interactions to certain people and limited settings was understandable, given there were no vaccines or therapies. The cost was high, financially and socially, but waiting for a vaccine meant there was a payoff to being cautious and delaying infection. Analysis from the Financial Times indicates that for most people in England, Covid-19 has become less lethal than seasonal flu because of the high levels of immunity after vaccination and the reduced severity of Omicron compared with Delta. In 2022, most people want to interact and live life as they see best (in a democracy where freedom is valued), given that disease severity has been blunted with vaccines.

[shpalman]

admissions are maybe starting to increase again, and numbers in hospital have stopped decreasing at least

[Herainestold]

admissions are maybe starting to increase again, and numbers in hospital have stopped decreasing at least

Endemicity. It will become the greatest cause of death and nobody will care.

[lpm]

It would be fabulous news if we could make it the greatest cause of death. Mean we'll have cured cancer, Alzheimer's and flu.

[purplehaze]

It's never going to be over, but nevertheless I persist in wearing a mask and just getting on with life.

Surprise!

People are still going to wear masks and that's never going to go away now.

[bjn]

It would be fabulous news if we could make it the greatest cause of death. Mean we'll have cured cancer, Alzheimer's and flu.

That can be achieved in one of two ways. Only one one of they would be fabulous news.

[bjn]

It's never going to be over, but nevertheless I persist in wearing a mask and just getting on with life.

Surprise!

People are still going to wear masks and that's never going to go away now.

I was on the London Overground twice yesterday, once at peak hour, once later in the evening. Apart from me I only saw two other people with facemasks. People aren't even trying.

[Hunting Dog]

It's never going to be over, but nevertheless I persist in wearing a mask and just getting on with life.

Surprise!

People are still going to wear masks and that's never going to go away now.

I was on the London Overground twice yesterday, once at peak hour, once later in the evening. Apart from me I only saw two other people with facemasks. People aren't even trying.

I've been wearing masks in shops still and seem to be the only one. One shop server commented on it, in a relatively positive way, that it was a good idea as covid was still around... In local butchers I went in and ordered one single sized pork pie and they insisted on giving it to me 'on the house', so I'm not sure if the mask or something else was making me look especially frail/needy! (I should have explained that I'm not broke, but was too taken by surprise)

[shpalman]

It's never going to be over, but nevertheless I persist in wearing a mask and just getting on with life.

Surprise!

People are still going to wear masks and that's never going to go away now.

I was on the London Overground twice yesterday, once at peak hour, once later in the evening. Apart from me I only saw two other people with facemasks. People aren't even trying.

Last time I was in the supermarket I realised with a bit of a guilty start that I'd failed to bring a mask from the car. I wasn't the only one maskless (otherwise I might have gone to get it) but I didn't really feel right without one.

Of course I've just been dancing, but we were outside.

The numbers are obviously picking up here again though.

[Herainestold]

I am stocking up on PPE, masks and storable food.
We are in for an interesting autumn/winter.
Stay safe, everybody.

[bob sterman]

Stay safe, everybody.

And now here's Tom with the weather.